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WOW - Woolworths Group

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I have a bit more than half a brain

Still waiting though. I think it's a decent price.. but then also asking... can it be even better? Greed and regret
 


Ever heard of tax-loss selling?
WOW has been struggling, as has been widely reported and commented on. So it's quite understandable that some long-suffering holders want to get rid of it before the end of the FY, to offset some Capital Gains they (hopefully) accumulated from other stocks over the past 12 months.

Of course, there are the contrarians, who either don't need a tax loss or hunt a perceived bargain where they see technical support or fundamental "fair value".

Time is running out for both, but those sellers who waited till today may be well pleased that they did and gladly accept a few % more than their brother-in-suffering did yesterday.

The 5-minute chart below tells today's story quite plainly:

 
I just had a another look at this.
The volume action on the 17th and 18th, as well as the fact that it was 'The Australian' peddling the rumors and naming names, are all positive as far as I'm concerned.
Perhaps the board has the ultimate the succession plan up its sleeve after all. :dance:
 
I will be waiting for further confirmation that the downtrend has completed but some reasons that it could be in are:

1...We have hit the 261.8% extension level of an Elliott wave B which confirms wave C has ended the downtrend on the weekly chart

2...We have a confirmation on the weekly chart with a Bullish engulfing pattern which is a strong two bar reversal pattern with a third bar confirming, seen at the end of a trend.

3...Volume has been supporting the moves up. ( I personally only use volume on daily charts )

4...Daily Gann swing up

5...Weekly Gann swing up

I will be waiting till I see the monthly Gann swing to turn up before making a decision.

I will do more analysis over the weekend but from what I can see at the moment I would look at these resistance levels if and when price moves up if indeed it is the turning point......$29.50....$31.50....$32.58 and $33.50.
 
plenty of action in the options market for WOW today, any options traders in here get a piece of it?

presumably due to the rumours one of those rare reverse delta skews seemed to show up today (albeit a slight one) where calls favoured puts. i went for a bit of a punt and put on some ratio call spreads. sold the 27.50 (ATM) july calls at around a 25 vol and bought 2x 29 (25'ish delta) july calls at around a 25.5 vol for a small credit.

so pretty much a delta neutral position, i figure if no bid eventuates the odds are that it's going to resume drifting lower on the back of negative sentiment and the whole thing probably just expires worthless, leaving me with the small credit taken in. but in the unlikely event that there is one, hopefully there will be enough of an upward explosion that the position will profit from the gamma of the OTM calls.
 
rimtas said:
Yep, bear market rallies are very volatile, but not when looking at the bigger picture.



View attachment 63154
Click to expand...

Do not hold WOW.
If not misread in Hot Copper, there is a suitor for WOW meaning Monday the lack lustre WOW will be glittered with gold until the rumour falls flat hopefully with a positive or negative announcement on ASX .
 
Looks like an (a)-(b)-(c) correction could develop into a Leading Diagonal. There are nice looking Fractals on WOW which basically tells that an upward move should start tomorrow, carrying prices above $28. Hmm.... maybe a bottom is finally in... If Leading Diagonal develops, there would still be a good possibility to enter as the entire pattern should later correct again to these levels.

Just did my regular weekly browsing through the stocks and noticed this interesting development on WOW, which is here for a reason I believe.

Basically Key Level is $26.75, if WOW declines below, just forget the advance.
 

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WOW, as I expected from fractal development earlier, sported a Leading Diagonal from the bottom. Though I was waiting for the fifth wave of LD to carry above $28, but it fell short a bit, rallying to $27.97.
Anyway, a five wave move from 26.25 bottom confirms that the Larger pattern is complete and the trend turned UP. The best entry point would be just below $27, if it develops from those levels.

The broader market just turned into Wave (2) rally, meaning that the positive sentiment will be dominant until it Tops out weeks or months from now, and this just adds to the case that it is a good base for a WOW to join the trend.
If WOW indeed sported the larger Diagonal from the $39 Top as I discussed in the earlier posts, the current advance should be scary as hell (for those who are shorting WOW). There is another way to label the decline from $39, but even it portends the rise to at least to $30.

The fact that WOW did not declined to $20-23 area and is ready to rally now, has a bearish indication for the longer term trend, putting the upcoming rise only as corrective, which will not carry prices higher than $39. So bad news for investors, but good news for traders.
I waited a long time for this moment, now I am ready to act.


 
Bold call to see this as a bottom. As much as I would like to see Woolworths rally back to $39.00 I suspect that the factors impacting on the market in general and Woolworths in particular, may still have some course to run (The take over rumour is helping under pin the present price action).
 
A Bottom is not the same as The Bottom. This means that before WOW declines below $26.25, it first rises above $27.97. That is the main point.
Even in downtrend market always presents good trading opportunities, with one of them unfolding just right before your eyes.
I am not a fundamental investor so I don't bother myself with takeover rumours, earnings and dividend yield. If I smell 10-15% rise, I am in, even if it takes a year to wait until this kind of setup develops.
 
Don't you think you guys are over thinking it?

I have been buying in between $26.50 - $27.00, hope I haven't done my money.
 

I agree nulla, I got out before the takeover rumour. At a significant loss. I held as it was a good divi stock, but all our local Woolies are crap, and Coles are way ahead. I rolled over in to TLS for divis.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I agree nulla, I got out before the takeover rumour. At a significant loss. I held as it was a good divi stock, but all our local Woolies are crap, and Coles are way ahead. I rolled over in to TLS for divis.

gg
Click to expand...

Yes I also sold gg --at a loss. Can't see WOW going anywhere for some time. I am already holding TLS, and probably too many, so added to my relatively safe (I hope) ARG.
 
It's a beautiful take over prospect.
If it doesn't happen I'll be even more disappointing with mankind's business acumen.
 
notting said:
It's a beautiful take over prospect.
If it doesn't happen I'll be even more disappointing with mankind's business acumen.
Click to expand...

Why??

Let the ship sink
It will shrink market share first in areas.
Stop competing and become what it was.
Its been sucked in beautifully.
 
tech/a said:
Why??

Let the ship sink
It will shrink market share first in areas.
Stop competing and become what it was.
Its been sucked in beautifully.
Click to expand...

I'm not understanding much of that.
Apart from the 'why?' (I'm usually OK with three letter words)

There is a lot being made about all the new entrants into the market like ALDI and LIDL big German Boogie men.
Coles has had it's day in the sun against the bloated lazy champ.
Put some hungry private equity behind WOW and get it lean and sharp and it will be just fine.
It has amazing real estate positions and apartments popping up all over the joint to build up on where it already is.
This is a cracker for private equity. I'm not into betting on takeovers but this is exceptional (the farm isn't on it yet).
 
tech/a said:
Why??

Let the ship sink
It will shrink market share first in areas.
Stop competing and become what it was.
Its been sucked in beautifully.
Click to expand...

Woolworths isn't going anywhere, it's return on equity is still great.

Look at where Coles was before its turn around story. Woolworths is in much better shape now than Coles was then.

We have a guy on a hospital bed with a stubbed toe, and you guys seem to be pronouncing him with terminal cancer.
 
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