Will Trump's tariffs lead to a global trade war?

[greggles]

There is talk that Donald Trump's introduction of tariffs last week on steel and aluminium imports to the U.S. could spark a full-blown global trade war that may have dire economic consequences, including a slow drift into recession.

It seems as though Trump is willing to sacrifice relationships with overseas nations at every turn in order to improve his popularity at home. It seems likely that the introduction of these tariffs, which appear to be a knee-jerk response to Trump's declining popularity at home, will result in tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs that could possibly lead to lower growth and higher inflation.

Trump is well known for his unpredictability and his obsession with "winning", so it seems likely that he will just retaliate further if Europe, China and other nations introduce tariffs on certain US exports. With Canada and Mexico affected by the new tariffs, NAFTA negotiations could be derailed. It seems as though Trump may have opened a rather large can of worms that has a number of unintended consequences.

Could the negative flow-on effects from Trump's tariffs be the trigger that finally pops the U.S. stock market bubble?

 

[pixel]

It seems likely that he doesn't give a damn about the consequences.
It also seems likely that Australia will remain one of very few "Allies" - maybe the only one even - to take it all lying down.
Whoever is content with friends like him won't need enemies...

 

[tech/a]

Whoa --- hang on---

I buy a lot of steel.

Prices have been increasing very quickly in the past months.
The introduction of a tariff as I see it means that the US demand
which would be huge---will decrease. So steel suppliers will need
markets elsewhere so in my view lack of demand sees prices drop.

In everywhere BUT the US.
So if US companies cant keep up with demand then tariffs will
go to the Govt. Prices will rise and there will be an effect on their
economy. He will be looking at a balance which you have to!

More employed/more taxes/some tariffs
V
Less demand less employed less taxes.
Which number cruncher will be right?

I doubt you'll see other nations "retaliate" with tariffs on US goods.
It would be counter productive.

 

[notting]

Haven't you noticed the Chinese have been at war with us for over 50 years.
It's not just a trade war, that is just the start.
China won't leverage it up until they know they have overwhelming force. Much smarter than Hitler.
Have you forgotten that Blue Scope steel had to be rescued by our government for security reasons?
Did you not see Australia's - OneSteel collapse?

One reason - China.

Trump is on the money on this one. China targets this area and tried to monopolize rare earths as they are the main ingredience for weapons!

China is the most ruthless psychopathic threat the world has ever seen...... far worse and far smarter than Hitler ever was

 

[SuperGlue]

The last American 'trade war' didn't work out so great

"Gillespie: America's last trade war exacerbated the Great Depression in the 1930s, when unemployment rose to 25%. Claiming it was protecting American jobs, Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930......."

"The result: US imports fell 40% in the two years after Smoot-Hawley. Banks shuttered. Unemployment shot up. "

Let's hope it doesn't go the way of 1930s.
A friend's mum (with tears in her eyes) was telling me how her parents and the kids had to collect grass seed to make bread during the depression times in Oz.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/02/politics/donald-trump-steel-tariffs-q-and-a/index.html

 

[notting]

The last American 'trade war' didn't work out so great
"Gillespie: America's last trade war exacerbated the Great Depression in the 1930s, when unemployment rose to 25%. Claiming it was protecting American jobs, Congress passed the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930.....

This is the kind or wording that is so typical of the blindness and dare I say arrogance of the western media, commentators and people in general regarding Asia/China. This is NOT 'America's' fricken trade war. It's an alternative response to the more than 50 years of surrender to China's 50 years of all our war and assault on Western economies.

In terms of a strategy however, I think they may be better off welcoming the dumping, let the government pay for and store the excesses not allowing them to flood the markets and then when China exhausts itself on it's bad sales you have all the goods and an industry in tact.

 

[SuperGlue]

In terms of a strategy however, I think they may be better off welcoming the dumping, let the government pay for and store the excesses not allowing them to flood the markets and then when China exhausts itself on it's bad sales you have all the goods and an industry in tact.

The above strategy will definitely fast track US to the ultimate bankruptcy as it is they owe trillions of dollars if not already bankrupt.
Be good for Oz though, supplying China with iron ore, etc.

 

[Smurf1976]

I’m not sure how but the management of Bell Bay Aluminium (Tasmania) seem to think they’re actually going to gain from it all.

How they gain I haven’t worked out but that’s what they’ve been saying in the mainstream media.

The company produces approximately 190,000 tonnes of aluminium each year and sells that largely in the form of alloys, at least one of which is a patented product whilst the rest are generic aluminium + x alloys.

 

[notting]

The above strategy will definitely fast track US to the ultimate bankruptcy as it is they owe trillions of dollars if not already bankrupt.
Be good for Oz though, supplying China with iron ore, etc.

Possibly so as China has all but bankrupted them!
What the US should do is cancel all the treasuries China baught and get the rest of the world to do the same and say that's for the theft of intellectual property and then send them a bill for 5 trillion $ for hack attacks, illegal island building, funding North Korea, Iran, Selling Nuclear bomb technology to enable Pakistan to become a nuke state, giving arms and money to Robert Magabe to terrorise and kill his own people in exchange for access to resources and to pay for the Invasions and destruction of neighboring countries maybe another 10 trillion in damages.etc etc. you could go on forever.......

 

[SuperGlue]

Possibly so as China has all but bankrupted them!
What the US should do is cancel all the treasuries China baught and get the rest of the world to do the same and say that's for the theft of intellectual property and then send them a bill for 5 trillion $ for hack attacks, illegal island building, funding North Korea, Iran, Selling Nuclear bomb technology to enable Pakistan to become a nuke state, giving arms and money to Robert Magabe to terrorise and kill his own people in exchange for access to resources and to pay for the Invasions and destruction of neighboring countries maybe another 10 trillion in damages.etc etc. you could go on forever.......

Easier said then done.

When the Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930 was passed, China was in the dark ages, there were no doors on thunder boxes.
I doubt dumping chop sticks in the US was the reason for the Act.

China "open up" in the early 1980's, sure China has done lots of dumping.
"In 2016, the Obama administration imposed duties on some Chinese steel imports by more than 500 percent, causing Chinese imports to the U.S. to drop by almost two-thirds." China made complain to the WTO."
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/02/if-trump-thinks-hes-taking-steel-tariff-war-to-china-hes-wrong.html

Now, China isn't even in the top 10 steel exporters to the United States.

Trump has reached an informal deal with Boeing to provide two Air Force One planes for U$3.9 billion.
I think the price just went up by 10 to 25%. Over U$4 billion, don't look good President Trump.
You're fired.

 

[notting]

Now, China isn't even in the top 10 steel exporters to the United States.

That's a bs number. China circumvents it by dumping in other countries like Mexico who then export to the US, on top if this kind of stuff -

 

[greggles]

The U.S. market appears to be shrugging off the tariffs. Dow Jones up 336 points last night.

 

[SuperGlue]

"The United States accounted for the largest share of Mexico’s imports by source country at 35 percent (1.9 mmt), followed by Japan at 25 percent (1.4 mmt), South Korea at 12 percent (0.67 mmt), China at 4 percent (0.24 mmt), and Canada at 4 percent (0.23 mmt)."

"Imports from China fell the most, down 25 percent in YTD 2017......."



And Trump wants to negotiate a better deal for US at NAFTA.
Must have gotten his info. for thin air like everyone else.

Have a read notting only 8 pages, report by US Dept.of Commerce (International Trade Administration)

https://www.trade.gov/steel/countries/pdfs/2017/q2/imports-mexico.pdf

 

[Smurf1976]

As a broad comment I had personally reached the conclusion that we'd see serious moves away from unrestricted free trade at a time when I knew nothing about Trump other than that he was on some TV program and there's a hotel bearing his name in Las Vegas.

Point being this has been coming for a long time and it if it wasn't Trump then it would happen sooner or later anyway.

Biggest problem I see with the "level playing field" is that it's not level. Certain countries achieve their "efficiency" only through artificially cheap inputs whilst the globalists fight tooth and nail to prevent others doing something similar. It's a very tilted playing field and it's not in the direction of Australia that's for sure.

 

[SuperGlue]

Trump: Those tariffs could be removed for Canada and Mexico if they signed a "new and fair" agreement.

Mexico: But, but.....Mr. Trump , we buy 39% of our steel from you, the largest share of Mexico’s imports of steel. (Side note: Canada supplies 7.9%)

Trump: No buts or ifs.....I want a "new and fair" agreement.

Mexico: Confused & rolled eyes. Okay, Mr. Trump for a "new and fair" agreement between US and Canada, we have increase your share to 50% US and 50% Canada. Are you happy Mr. Trump?

Trump:

 

[SuperGlue]

"Donald Trump tweets he will not impose tariffs on 'the great nation of Australia'"

There's a catch.

"Working very quickly on a security agreement so we don’t have to impose steel or aluminum tariffs on our ally, the great nation of Australia!"
.....and Australia exports steel & aluminium worth about $545 million to US

"Australia buys about 60 per cent of its "warfighting assets" from the US, shares intelligence as part of the Five Eyes alliance, and allows thousands of US Marines to rotate through Darwin each year."
Australian Defence Force spends over $10 billion on US arms in four years

Malcolm Turnbull should be aggressive & demand a "new & fair" (just like Trump demands on NAFTA) security agreement like a 25% discount on all "warfighting assets" from the US or else ......

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-...mp-working-tariff-exemption-agreement/9534984
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-02/how-us-steel-aluminium-tariffs-could-affect-australia/9503602
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-28/us-weapons-spend-tops-billion-dollar/9287170

 

[greggles]

Well, I suppose it's unsurprising that Trump is now making concessions by exempting certain nations from the tariffs. Now the political reality is setting in for him and in order to have constructive relationships with other trading partners, certain exemptions were always going to be necessary. The problem for Trump now is going to be who to offer exemptions to. So far it is Canada, Mexico and Australia. I can't imagine the EU is going to be happy to be left off the list and Europe has far more economic power than Canada, Mexico and Australia combined.

This move always appeared to me to be a cynical attempt by Trump to appeal to blue collar, disenfranchised workers in the steel and aluminium industries in the USA. As a tactic, it seemed a little transparent, especially given his declining popularity.

It will be interesting to see what happens from here.

 

[luutzu]

Well, I suppose it's unsurprising that Trump is now making concessions by exempting certain nations from the tariffs. Now the political reality is setting in for him and in order to have constructive relationships with other trading partners, certain exemptions were always going to be necessary. The problem for Trump now is going to be who to offer exemptions to. So far it is Canada, Mexico and Australia. I can't imagine the EU is going to be happy to be left off the list and Europe has far more economic power than Canada, Mexico and Australia combined.

This move always appeared to me to be a cynical attempt by Trump to appeal to blue collar, disenfranchised workers in the steel and aluminium industries in the USA. As a tactic, it seemed a little transparent, especially given his declining popularity.

It will be interesting to see what happens from here.

Read on Reuter that this move actually hurt those steel workers he's saying it tries to help.

Apparently a lot of the steel that's imported are not being offered by US steel makers. So it will just mean those who buy will either have to accept a higher price or wait until US steel makers, or makers from exempted countries, fire up their investment to produce what's needed.

Further, there's only some 140K steel workers compare to some 6.5M who work for US companies that uses the imported steel. Higher price on costs will most likely lead job cuts.

 

[SuperGlue]

This move always appeared to me to be a cynical attempt by Trump to appeal to blue collar, disenfranchised workers in the steel and aluminium industries in the USA. As a tactic, it seemed a little transparent, especially given his declining popularity.

Read on Reuter that this move actually hurt those steel workers he's saying it tries to help.

Trump is actually preparing for the mid-term election, someone who doesn't care what's good for US.
Historical studies for trade wars are very negative.
Just google "Obama Tire tariff" and "Bush steel tariff"

There's always a hidden agenda.

Building voters support with the blue collar workers in the steel & aluminium industries.
Mid-term election is in early November 2018 only a few months away and he has intention of being president for life.

Is the prediction below falling into place?
Time will tell.

"Baba Vanga ‘Obama last US president’ prediction: What does it mean?"

http://www.news.com.au/world/north-...n/news-story/a108e14db6091679687f94a60e28311c

 

[BlownAccount]

There is talk that Donald Trump's introduction of tariffs last week on steel and aluminium imports to the U.S. could spark a full-blown global trade war that may have dire economic consequences, including a slow drift into recession.

It seems as though Trump is willing to sacrifice relationships with overseas nations at every turn in order to improve his popularity at home. It seems likely that the introduction of these tariffs, which appear to be a knee-jerk response to Trump's declining popularity at home, will result in tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs that could possibly lead to lower growth and higher inflation.

Trump is well known for his unpredictability and his obsession with "winning", so it seems likely that he will just retaliate further if Europe, China and other nations introduce tariffs on certain US exports. With Canada and Mexico affected by the new tariffs, NAFTA negotiations could be derailed. It seems as though Trump may have opened a rather large can of worms that has a number of unintended consequences.

Could the negative flow-on effects from Trump's tariffs be the trigger that finally pops the U.S. stock market bubble?

Im almost certain that he ran for president on these policies. I dont see how they could be seen to knee jerk reactions. These policies make sense for the American economy moving forward. They have a very large trade imbalance with the likes of China who aartifically sets its currency. He is simply taking it to the commie bastards, more power to him i say.
Cheers