Will there be a rally after the US elections?

[Nyden]

So does that mean since sportingbet is paying 12% that only 88% has been factored into the market? Meaning the remainder 12% will be factored in tommorrow/tonight ???

No. It means that those people were just taking a long-shot suckers bet, or were extremists in denial Such folk don't contribute to the markets; and even if they did - they'd probably be so distraught at their loss that they'll be too depressed to invest.

 

[Calliope]

SMH headline said Asia markets rallied on Obama win. I doubt this. Asians are smart enough to know that the Democrats, who are generally anti-business are not going to sort this mess out by spreading the wealth. What wealth. I will join in the euphoria when my sick superannuation fund rallies.

 

[Sunder]

SMH headline said Asia markets rallied on Obama win. I doubt this. Asians are smart enough to know that the Democrats, who are generally anti-business are not going to sort this mess out by spreading the wealth. What wealth. I will join in the euphoria when my sick superannuation fund rallies.

I think this means Democrats have control of both houses, which makes any bailouts and resolutions easier to pass, unlike the last 700B attempt. I think that might cause some optimism.

 

[SenTineL]

Well its certainly not reflected in the Futures!!!

when was the last time the futures was accurate?
maybe you were being sarcastic.

i remember recently seeing some futures figures that ended up being so inacurate, in fact the opposite of what actualy took place

 

[M34N]

Well down she goes...

But anything is possible today, I personally expect to see it either flat or higher.

 

[MRC & Co]

Well that was terrible, volatile, irrational trading!

Obama pretty much had it wrapped, market broke S&P day sessions previous micro double top high, took out weak shorts, then came off. Looked to be a sure short, then bounced and the sequence continued.

Talk about indecisive!

 

[OzWaveGuy]

So far the S&P500 is following this https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=354062&postcount=5307

If a reasonable retracement occurs tonight or tomorrow then wave D down is underway - possibly to the 900 level. Futures looks pretty bearish right now, which may support a solid push lower tonight.

 

[tech/a]

2 to 2.5% downs my bet.

Subject to change when I have a look later.
It too used to be indecisive---but now I'm not so sure.

 

[sinner]

Whoever said XAO 4300 then down seems to be on the money....so to speak

 

[moXJO]

From options university

This week starts off a little slow but with the election on Tuesday and a slew of economic reports due out as the week progresses, it should be action packed. It's our take that the "real" news that will come out of the election will be what happens in the Senate, as in, if the Democrats become filibuster proof.

If the Democrats are able to take control of the Senate by securing 60 or greater seats, then they will effectively control not only the Senate, but the House and, more than likely, the White House if polls hold. The legislative and executive/enforcement branch under the control of one party is not something that investors normally prefer.

Much of an Obama victory has already been priced into the markets... but not completely. We believe that Senate dominance and thus legislative dominance for the Democrats is unlikely to have been priced in even as much as an Obama victory. One or two days post election moves aside, we believe that mid and longer term the market will be facing even more duress.

One item that's gotten some attention over the weekend concerns Obama's plans on taxing coal thus making coal to energy investing even more cost prohibitive. The problem is as we've seen recently, is that the USA is far too energy dependent and energy solutions are a real challenge. However, the USA is by far the largest owner of coal deposits.

Obviously, the USA can help to solve its own energy problems by turning increasingly to coal for energy production. This can create jobs and can help allow time until more renewable sources of energy are brought fully online. This is where we see the problem. We're not in favor of pollution; there are few who are. But instead of incentivizing people and companies to find clean burning technologies for coal, Obama's stated intentions are to tax it to protect the environment.

A noble defense of the environment is to be admired but why not challenge the industrious people to develop technologies to improve coal burning and use tax incentives to do it? In a nutshell, this is probably why investors may have an issue with his administration that appears to be looking to punitive taxation first and possibly encourage at some other time.

During trying times like this, we can't always enact the ideal solution. Sometimes we need to see problems addressed pragmatically. The coal issue is just a microcosm. Good times are needed to apply these types of idealized measures. The same is true in the economy. At times when people need more take home pay to make ends meet, our government shouldn't be taking more and more away from people. Again, this is our sense of how Wall St. at large views things and not necessarily our own views from our prisms.

With all of the bailouts that have occurred, and a severely depleted consumer, it just isn't the time to embark on additional spending plans that this country simply can't afford. It's high time for the USA to get serious and leave the Washington nonsense and "Press-speak" behind. That is what has brought us to the precipice and it must end. Hopefully, and again assuming the polls hold true (we're referencing state by state electoral map polls by the way), Obama will realize that he needs to adapt to the real world conditions and leave the campaign rhetoric behind.

 

[chops_a_must]

when was the last time the futures was accurate?
maybe you were being sarcastic.

i remember recently seeing some futures figures that ended up being so inacurate, in fact the opposite of what actualy took place

And exactly how are the futures inaccurate?

You do understand what they are don't you?

 

[J.B.Nimble]

The question - Will there be a rally after the US elections?
Answer - (with some highly sophisticated holistic predictive algorithms at work here) Yes - within the next ten years... maybe even in time for me to reactivate my (very dead for now) early retirement plans. Meantime - oh the pain, the pain...

 

[tech/a]

And exactly how are the futures inaccurate?

You do understand what they are don't you?

"Better to remain silent and appear a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt."

 

[theasxgorilla]

Now we have hindsight, so no, there wasn't a rally. Quite the opposite actually...and since many believe Obama will be worse for the economy than McCain could have been, the fact that we see the market fall severely on relatively bad news suggests to me we haven't seen the bottom in this market, yet.

 

[Junior]

There wasn't a rally in the first day after the election, arguably the result was already factored in... Obama needs a convincing economic plan going forward.

 

[Calliope]

There wasn't a rally in the first day after the election, arguably the result was already factored in... Obama needs a convincing economic plan going forward.

The political experts said that the state of the American economy was the main factor in raising Obama's popularity rating to an unbeatable lead.

You would have expected that after his victory confidence would boom. The American markets have now given their judgment and the Australian and Asian markets will follow suit today.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Will there be a rally after the US elections...?

Nope.

 

[Glen48]

.5% rise will be classed as a Bull boom and IF we get that take a photo because it will be a long time before we see that again, I reckon we are in an elevator and the LCD tells us Stock market..Going Down...and we are on the top floor

 

[sam76]

Bear market has ended, says Morgan Stanley
By Mathieu Robbins
Wednesday, 5 November 2008

Analysts at the US investment bank Morgan Stanley are recommending that clients start to buy shares again after more than a year of falling markets. In an investment strategy report, analysts at the bank said that all four indicators they use to gauge the equity market outlook have started to indicate a turn in the downward trend.

"We have now come full circle: our market timing indicators are giving us a full house buy signal," said the statement. "Each of the four indicators - valuation, capitulation, risk, fundamentals - tells us to buy."

The report said that the catalyst for the change in outlook was that the last few investor groups - retail investors, sell-side analysts and purchasing managers - have "capitulated" to bear market sentiment. "The idea is that when these three groups know about the bad news, equity prices are probably already reflecting it," it read.

The note recommends that investors keep shares in their investment portfolios to take in the expected growth.

It comes after months of stock market falls that have seen London's FTSE 100 index lose about a third of its value in the last year. However, even the report's compilers admit that while they consider it to have a "near-perfect" track record, there is a chance it is wrong.

"These models tend to work some 80 to 90 per cent of the time," they said. "And in the 10 to 20 per cent that they don't work, the move the other way can be spectacular."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...ket-has-ended-says-morgan-stanley-992370.html

 

[Ageo]

Bear market has ended, says Morgan Stanley

BAWAHHAAH quote of the century!