Who else is quietly shaking their head?

[Trembling Hand]

So someone tell me if im right on this - im not that smart.

The NASDAQ closed friday at 2340 - and the future value as per bloomberg is 1781. Does this mean the future is pointed to a far bit more downwards?

No the Fut you are looking at are the NASDAQ 100 which is down 70 points. Not the NASDAQ COMP

 

[wayneL]

So someone tell me if im right on this - im not that smart.

The NASDAQ closed friday at 2340 - and the future value as per bloomberg is 1781. Does this mean the future is pointed to a far bit more downwards?

They are two different indexes

The cash index quoted is the Nasdaq Composite, which is calculated on just about all Nasdaq stocks. The futures are on the Nasdaq 100, the top 100 NASDAQ stocks.

Compare NASDAQ COMP verses NASDAQ 100

 

[Kimosabi]

The writing has been on the wall for months.

I got out everything during the middle of last year and bought gold.

We are now in a credit contraction and this isn't going to end until all the easy credit puss is squeezed from the markets.

Aussie real estate will crash and burn in the next year or two when the easy credit puss is squeezed from that bubble.

This is going to get real nasty, real quick boys and girls, better hold onto your hats...

 

[jtb]

My take on what to do.

Look for volatility to calm down.

(as I have 2 that slid straight through stops)

Hey Tech, I feel your frustration -joys of being a shiftworker

Well I'm on my fourth 'Little Creatures' (yum) and am going to bed.

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger

See you guys on the flipside

 

[Romano]

Like most others here I am holding. There would appear to be some absolute bargains there this morning, especially amongst the banks. Just asking myself at what point should I buy in. Their fundamentals are still excellent, so it would appear that they are oversold. May be back in this arvo

 

[wayneL]

Bargains?

Heading into a recession, stocks still look effing expensive to me.

 

[Nyden]

Bargains?

Heading into a recession, stocks still look effing expensive to me.

Agreed. I no longer believe stocks to be undervalued, just re-valued to adjust for the fundamental changes happening to the world

 

[nomore4s]

Bargains?

Heading into a recession, stocks still look effing expensive to me.

I'm with you Wayne could be a whole lot cheaper in the next week or so.

Be waiting to see what the good ol' US of A does tonight before going "bargin" hunting

 

[awg]

As a mostly long term holder, who is only starting the journey to learning better trading, ( although I have cashed up from 8% to 30% over the last couple of weeks).

I cant sell via commsec at the moment anyway .

I think i need to look at some pr0n at the moment!

 

[Nyden]

As a mostly long term holder, who is only starting the journey to learning better trading, ( although I have cashed up from 8% to 30% over the last couple of weeks).

I cant sell via commsec at the moment anyway .

I think i need to look at some pr0n at the moment!

Too much information there, buddy.

I really didn't need to know what you get upto inbetween trades, just yuck :

 

[treefrog]

Like most others here I am holding. There would appear to be some absolute bargains there this morning, especially amongst the banks. Just asking myself at what point should I buy in. Their fundamentals are still excellent, so it would appear that they are oversold. May be back in this arvo

the excellent fundamentals of stocks in such a market as this are seriously out of date
have you ever seen how many other stocks the banks (and others) own??
ever looked at the stock ann and seen the millions they hold and trade??
have you seen any of these pennies and small caps heading south lately??
no?? then it must be because they have dropped below the bottom of your PC screen and they are no longer visible
so when you look at their "latest fundamentals which are excellent" just how up to date are they - sorry they are not even up to date in a steady market...
and then their overseas investments - oh no!! - yes, in the US and, more or less, directly or indirectly in the property fiasco there

 

[skating101]

As a mostly long term holder, who is only starting the journey to learning better trading, ( although I have cashed up from 8% to 30% over the last couple of weeks).

I cant sell via commsec at the moment anyway .

I think i need to look at some pr0n at the moment!

i lol'ed, these isnt going to be a recession in Australia though and as long as your investments have no or limited exposure to the credit crisis you should be in a relatively good long term position, tell me if im wrong

 

[SM Junkie]

I must admit I'm a bit excited about the bargains I can pick up. Just sitting back and waiting for a good buy time. I've not sold anything and I don't need to panic, I won't let fear nor greed detrail my long term strategy. I'm really happy with the fundamentals of the companies I've invested in and just see the current crisis an an opportunity to increase my stake.

I saw a documentary about previous stock market crashes and what the big investors like Buffett did, guess what they didn't panic and just held, the market has always bounced back.

 

[gordon2007]

That's about all I can do at the moment is just hold'm. I'm not depressed or anything like that. Sure I'd like to be buying more at the moment but most of my $$$ is actually in the market already so in order to buy more I'd have to sell at a loss. I think just sitting back and practicing patience and learning more will be the best route at the moment.

yeah very good learning experience imo

i am holding to be honest - fundamentals of companies haven't changed just the value

you get more bang for your buck too when u take opportunities like these

i can't see any point in panic selling and following the herd..

look to the future

 

[wayneL]

i lol'ed, there isnt going to be a recession in Australia

I LOLed in turn.

 

[skating101]

the excellent fundamentals of stocks in such a market as this are seriously out of date
have you ever seen how many other stocks the banks (and others) own??
ever looked at the stock ann and seen the millions they hold and trade??
have you seen any of these pennies and small caps heading south lately??
no?? then it must be because they have dropped below the bottom of your PC screen and they are no longer visible
so when you look at their "latest fundamentals which are excellent" just how up to date are they - sorry they are not even up to date in a steady market...
and then their overseas investments - oh no!! - yes, in the US and, more or less, directly or indirectly in the property fiasco there

how about those of us that are invested in commodities

 

[Nyden]

how about those of us that are invested in commodities

Commodity stocks in general may have been overvalued for a while - as a result of a very hot sector. Now that it's revealed that the stellar growth may not continue, the prices have to come down.

 

[Frank D]

Markets will bounce shortly in the US, it will stabilise and move into a distribution pattern for a number of months,, before a 2nd wave of selling in the 2nd half of the year into lower lows, and probably hit lower lows in 2009....

I personally wouldn't trade any margin positions on stocks for the long term, if you've got cash and think a stock is undervalued and BUY it, don't expect much upside for a couple of years, especially on any bounce.....

These sell patterns were going to play out this year, but sometimes downtrends move much quicker than expected..

if looking to short trade stocks I'd wait until markets consolidate and trading around their 3-month highs, so the timing of the 'short's align once again with Quarterly timeframes...

I personally don't short trade stocks, prefer index futures and forex.....

Just my view over the long term....

 

[cordelia]

Like most others here I am holding. There would appear to be some absolute bargains there this morning, especially amongst the banks. Just asking myself at what point should I buy in. Their fundamentals are still excellent, so it would appear that they are oversold. May be back in this arvo

mmmmm...anything could happen overnight. Only an over zealous optomistic soothsayer would buy in this afternoon and hold overnight....

 

[doctorj]

The risk is that the credit crisis is finding it's way into the 'real economy' (geeez I hate that expression). The fall out of declining US house prices is being worn by the banks that underwrote it. Falling house prices will some point be felt by retailers with falling consumer confidence/spending. The you have the resulting decline in commercial property hitting the balance sheets of non-banks and reduced demand hitting manufacturers.

Last I looked the Bond markets are pricing in something like a 30-40% chance of a 75bp cut by the fed at the end of the month!
Maybe that will work, maybe it won't, but my worry is twofold - if bond markets are expecting that degree of cutting, how bad is it really and will it really have any impact (if essentially it's already being priced in) and secondly that the fed can only cut rates down so far - would they be better off keeping some of their powder dry so to speak?

I suspect that right now the economists at the fed are withing they had tightened rates further in the last couple of the years to give them more ammo now. Right now they're busy fighting a war on two fronts - inflation on one side and weak growth or recession on the other. Rather them than me, but I tell you one thing, it'll make an interesting study once all this plays out.

I know this is a fairly rambling post, but I want to leave with one more thought. I personally put the 'chicken little' bears calling for the end of (financial) days in the same boat as the blind bulls crying for stronger for longer. The economic cycle has held true so far and I don't see this time being any different.