Where do you see markets going this year?

[builder2818]

Where do you guys think our markets and the markets of the world will be by the end of this year?

Who sees this recent declines as a 'correction' as the talking heads in the media are saying and that our market will be around 5600 by years end (unlikely I think)?

Or do you guys see this as a change of trend and the 50% rally we've seen since March 09 simply just a bear market rally and we're likely to retest the 4100 and 3700 point level before possibly going lower?

There are many different opinions i've read elsewhere online, but curious to know what you guys think.

 

[Logique]

The confusing thing for the retail investor is the diversity of opinion out there in the commentariat. If market pros and experienced commentators can't agree, then what hope have the rest of us got?

In the end it comes down to personal interpretation. Markets hate uncertainty, and there is so much of that, which I don't see unwinding very quickly. So a retest of 4000-ish on the XAO, and it could well go lower, forming a W-shaped recovery -hopefully no worse than that.

Current stock market is for the brave and the liquid. Cash looks good, and Australian property.

 

[wecanallinvest]

Global debt levels are a massive problem and front of mind for most investors. Our housing market is pumped to record levels (of debt). I have no crystal ball but debt is what drives investment so ask yourself this - what will global markets do if bad debt is a problem once again?

 

[yonnie]

I dont think we`ll get a W shaped recovery, meaning the SPI drops to below 3100 again. That the market went up so much from March 2009 without any meaningful correction shows the market was way oversold.

My guess is that the correction will get down to 3900/4000 at the most ie down around 50-60% of the rise from 3100 to 5000.

 

[Pivotonian]

Cash looks good, and Australian property.

Noooooo. I can't think of too many markets more ridiculously overvalued right now than Australian property. Steve Keen is right, he was just a little bit early.

 

[Pivotonian]

My guess is that the correction will get down to 3900/4000 at the most ie down around 50-60% of the rise from 3100 to 5000.

I hope you're right, but I'm not too sure. I don't think 3,100 is a stretch at all.

 

[builder2818]

I think we'll be testing 4100, then 3700 very soon. Part of me thinks we will get back down to the 3200 level - and that part of me wants us too aswell.

I think it will only be a matter of time before we get more big news out of Europe of one of the PIIGS defaulting on their loans. Even just a downgrading of one of the other countries like Greece had recently will send a lot of selling through the markets.

France and China may be 2 other countries to watch out for.

 

[Sean K]

EW'ers will tell you it's all in the waves. Pretty rough out in Bondi this week. But who knows what will come in next week. I guess we will adjust the wave motion accordingly after the event.

Funnymentally, it depends on action. Governments have done exactly the opposite to stem medium to long term pain. You can't fix a long term problem with a band aide. In fact, you make it worse. Until debt starts to be paid off across the board and individuals start to realise that a credit card does have to be paid off at some stage, we are in deep doo-doo. No signs of us escaping doo-doo to me.

I say we will go dramatically up and down for the year, unless some clear leadership is found on fixing the real problems with humankind, and end up about even. Plus or minus 30%.