When will the market pick up/recover?

agro · 13 August 2008

i am guessing christmas..

anyone else want to have a stab

resources r just getting mauled at the moment

prawn_86 · 13 August 2008

Well a usual bull market last about 18 - 24 months historically, and we are about a year in, so im tipping about this time next year things will really start to take off again and all the taxi drivers (hello Kennas) will flood back in

questionall_42 · 13 August 2008

prawn_86 said:
Well a usual bull market last about 18 - 24 months historically, and we are about a year in, so im tipping about this time next year things will really start to take off again and all the taxi drivers (hello Kennas) will flood back in

The power of one word... wouldn't it be great if we were one year into a new bull market...

As for the prediction: I can't see any new bull market evolving... ...

prawn_86 · 13 August 2008

LOL thanks for picking that up.

Obviously i meant BEAR market.

I think there will be another bull market. Im sure in all the other bear markets people were saying "i cant see another good run happening", but it does always seem to...

jono_oz · 13 August 2008

Hi guys,
I am only a beginner at this - but I was wondering if someone could explain to me how if, St George and Bendigo Banks have a 40-50% increase in profits and CBA has a 7% increase to $4Billion-ish dollars, our banking system is in crisis???

It seems to me that the whole American disaster is simply superimposed onto our banking system.

I am constantly confused by conflicting media reports of imminent recession, Vs the RBA needing to slow down our rampant economy? Can someone tell me which is it? Is our economy so rampant that it needs slowing or are we in a recession?

John the confused!

CanOz · 13 August 2008

jono_oz said:
Hi guys,
I am only a beginner at this - but I was wondering if someone could explain to me how if, St George and Bendigo Banks have a 40-50% increase in profits and CBA has a 7% increase to $4Billion-ish dollars, our banking system is in crisis???

It seems to me that the whole American disaster is simply superimposed onto our banking system.

I am constantly confused by conflicting media reports of imminent recession, Vs the RBA needing to slow down our rampant economy? Can someone tell me which is it? Is our economy so rampant that it needs slowing or are we in a recession?

John the confused!

John, I'll have a little stab at this for you. Believe me we are all beginners or Arm Chair Economists, but hell its interesting!

Generally Aussie banks are in better shape (they claim) than US banks and most international banks. They had less exposure to sub prime loans through those derivatives than did other banks so they can actually record some gains instead of losses. CBA i believe had more exposure than STGB and BB. Can anyone confirm this?

They say there is a banking crisis because there is still a credit crunch, or a lower supply of credit than there was a few years ago. This is reflected in the difference between the O/Night or discount rate and the lending rate. The bank lending rates tend to be higher because there is, or they think there is, more risk in lending at this time and they require a larger premium to make money. Credit is tight, and this among other things will affect the growth of the economy.

The RBA, while trying to fight inflation realizes that its measures are probably working to slow down the economy and rein in inflation (so it thinks). Its now seeing some stats showing that the economy is slowing and they may need to hold rates or even cut rates to avoid a hard landing (a steep decline in growth ending in recession). Maybe they will just talk down the dollar and hold the rates. Some of this lost growth is due to fewer exports (from a strong dollar) and some is due to less domestic demand in the form of consumer spending, and perhaps very little housing growth....i'm not going there in this thread though.

Anyone else care to explain further? You there Dhukka?

Cheers,

CanOz

agro · 13 August 2008

jono_oz said:
Hi guys,
I am only a beginner at this - but I was wondering if someone could explain to me how if, St George and Bendigo Banks have a 40-50% increase in profits and CBA has a 7% increase to $4Billion-ish dollars, our banking system is in crisis???

It seems to me that the whole American disaster is simply superimposed onto our banking system.

I am constantly confused by conflicting media reports of imminent recession, Vs the RBA needing to slow down our rampant economy? Can someone tell me which is it? Is our economy so rampant that it needs slowing or are we in a recession?

John the confused!

to some extent i think what we choose to beleive is based on what the media feeds us..

if media says we are doom and gloom then people will crack it ..

i beleive our economy is stronger than ever,

don't beleive this bs about the commodity demand from china weakening

until they start making buildings out of plastic they will always need raw materials

wayneL · 13 August 2008

agro said:
to some extent i think what we choose to beleive is based on what the media feeds us..

if media says we are doom and gloom then people will crack it ..

i beleive our economy is stronger than ever,

don't beleive this bs about the commodity demand from china weakening

until they start making buildings out of plastic they will always need raw materials

You still need oil to make plastic.

But.... what if commodity demand weakens? Even static demand would probably result in price falls in the near/medium term as more supply comes on line.

Now that the olympics develpoment push is now done and dusted, extra demand will have to come from somewhere.

tech/a · 13 August 2008

When will the market pick up/recover?

At around 4100 ish

wayneL · 13 August 2008

tech/a said:
When will the market pick up/recover?

At around 4100 ish

Is that a level or a date? ::

I'm far more bullish at 2013.

jersey10 · 13 August 2008

wayneL said:
Is that a level or a date? ::

LOL

very good Wayne

gav · 13 August 2008

I guess it all depends on your interpretation of a "pick up" or "recovery". Is 5400 a recovery? How about 5800? And how long does it need to stay above that for it to be defined as a 'recovery'?

I dont care too much what the market as a whole does, as the SP of the companies I have $$$ in go up! :

agro · 14 August 2008

good too see commodities back in focus today

stronger for longer

explod · 14 August 2008

agro said:
good too see commodities back in focus today

stronger for longer

Yes, an up day with the Banks down. Reckon we will see a lot more of this.

korrupt_1 · 14 August 2008

santa says xmas... because he will bring goodies for everyone...

I'd stick my stockings out and say that the santa rally will be big this year...

Tysonboss1 · 14 August 2008

My feelling is that the market is bouncing off the bottom now,..

I am actively buying back in now to select stocks, However I am not expecting a quick recovery but things should strart to strenghten from here on in.

Go Nuke · 14 August 2008

jono_oz said:
Hi guys,
I am only a beginner at this - but I was wondering if someone could explain to me how if, St George and Bendigo Banks have a 40-50% increase in profits and CBA has a 7% increase to $4Billion-ish dollars, our banking system is in crisis???

It seems to me that the whole American disaster is simply superimposed onto our banking system.

I am constantly confused by conflicting media reports of imminent recession, Vs the RBA needing to slow down our rampant economy? Can someone tell me which is it? Is our economy so rampant that it needs slowing or are we in a recession?

John the confused!

Well..its like this.

Our banks are in better shape than say U.S banks with little exposure to the sub prime market.
Though because of the credit crunch as CanOz said there are higher borrowing costs for banks, so the poor buggers at CBA only made a $4Bil+ profit.

Here are some statements made by the Deputy Governor of the reserve bank today...

When we look at bank profitability, we find that Australian banks are around the top of the international range. On the surface, this could indicate a lesser degree of competition than elsewhere. But when we look a bit deeper it seems that an important reason for the high profitability of Australian banks is their unusually low bad debt experience. Over the past decade or so, bad debts of Australian banks have been about half the long run average, and also around half the experience of overseas banks. This has been the result of the very strong domestic economy. It is also worth noting that other Australian industries have been very profitable over this period.

If we adjust for the unusually low bad debts of recent years, the profitability of Australian banks falls back to around the middle of the international range.

Though I'm sure he also said the other day that the lending rate for banks had come down and that there would be no reason for the banks not to pass on any official rate cuts in full

of course banks being the greedy bastards that they are, will NOT cut interest rates in full if the reserve bank does.

As for the market turning around, well typicaly as resouces go up, banks go down. With the strengthening U.S dollar i think resources will level out or decline and the financials will slowly begin a wobbly climb back up.

njc.corp · 14 August 2008

i think all this talk is related to media-

since i hate blaming people-i will blame the media-

they cause problems only to sell papers-(no actual honest facts and stat's)

i have heard nothing in the media apart from bad new's

the interest rate's and oil prices was un called for and the jump was to harsh-(lets not lie about that)

we all know this is a good country and we are tough-but yet we seem to follow the silly people-

i am not rich or loaded- i just know how much i can repay back-

while i see people going crazy on buying a house and $100,000 and car's all on credit-?

when rates go up or something hits the fan-they cry? give me a break-and rip out money stress-

the australian are under stress because they can manage their loan's

i mean this credit crunch is related to people who cant pay back or am i wrong here?

what happen to the good old days when u needed a decent % for a house loan- i knew their was going to be problems when u give people 100-110 % $$$?

did the banks fall alseep or got greedy? seems they are paying the price and the myth of banks never losing is not a myth but a relaity now-

i do think 6-12 months of pain to come-due to other peoples lack of thinking-

can anyone tell me how long the last good run lasted for?

or maybe i am getting to serious for this topic-

Thanks

Nick--

sqwark7600 · 18 August 2008

Tysonboss1 said:
My feelling is that the market is bouncing off the bottom now,..

I am actively buying back in now to select stocks, However I am not expecting a quick recovery but things should strart to strenghten from here on in.

I tend to agree and am positioned accordingly. If I could see the negatives in the following sentiment stimuli I would not be so confident.

Consumers:
House prices are cheaper and falling.
Interest rates are under negative pressure.
Australian housing loans are full recourse as opposed to US non-recourse.
Australian unemployment is still healthy.
Banking:
The 2007 CDO feeding frenzy is restricted to US-$300bn and EU bankers-$200bn except for our NAB.
Banks will probably track the RBA rate down.
There is a lot of investment cash on the sideline.
Inflation is yesterday's problem.
Recession is still a forecast and not a reality.
Commodities
Our commodities and AUD are cheap.
Mining capacity infrastructure spending is expanding.
Our prime commodity markets have eased off their demand peaks but are still potentially strong.
Intuition
The forecasting herd is calling a major world economic downturn.
Sentiment seems frustrated but skeptical.
Lower volume may indicate long repositioning and shorting are close to an end.

My opinion only, it still remains your call.

agro · 18 August 2008

Tysonboss1 said:
My feelling is that the market is bouncing off the bottom now,..

I am actively buying back in now to select stocks, However I am not expecting a quick recovery but things should strart to strenghten from here on in.

tend to agree

i think after the Olympics we should see a big recovery in our resource sector..

lets not forget the chinese steel mills are shut down for the time being

after that our big 3 miners - bhp, rio and fmg can start sending ships over again

When will the market pick up/recover?

agro

prawn_86

Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata

questionall_42

prawn_86

Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata

jono_oz

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

agro

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

jersey10

gav

agro

explod

explod

korrupt_1

Tysonboss1

Go Nuke

njc.corp

sqwark7600

agro

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When will the market pick up/recover?

Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata

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explod

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