When will the market pick up/recover?

[tronic72]

tend to agree

i think after the Olympics we should see a big recovery in our resource sector..

lets not forget the chinese steel mills are shut down for the time being

after that our big 3 miners - bhp, rio and fmg can start sending ships over again

Could also easily go the other way around.

Think about how much of our resources have been used to help create all the infrastructure for the games. Once they are over, then what?

Recession is likely in AU, and virtually underway in North America. The UK property market is down 30%. China & India are only steaming ahead because the west has had so much "spending money". I don't think anyone can deny that Australia has moved from the sheep's back, to the Mining Tip Truck's Air-conditioned cabin in terms of who it's riding on. Take the demand for resources out of the equation and we could be in a heap of trouble. What will we sell? Food? Sorry no can do, don't have any water.

I got my hair cut today and the Barber said business is really slow. Also saw the baker was trying to sell. That's the sort of grass-roots feedback I've started hearing around the traps. I don't think we've seen the bottom yet.

My 2c

 

[Beej]

Could also easily go the other way around.

Think about how much of our resources have been used to help create all the infrastructure for the games. Once they are over, then what?

The Olympic infrastructure is a drop in the ocean in an economy that is building the equivalent of a city the size of Brisbane every month.....

Beej

 

[fordxbt]

The Olympic infrastructure is a drop in the ocean in an economy that is building the equivalent of a city the size of Brisbane every month.....
Beej

you trying to say brisbane's tiny
id agree about the CBD area anyway

 

[son of baglimit]

i dont know the exact details but.........

refer to europe markets in march 2003 - in one night, pretty much collapsed, losing well over 5%, and recovered most of it late in the session.

thats my trigger.

 

[tech/a]

Well I disagree.
Infact my analysis is the exact opposite.

Much has been written in the Parent XAO thread.
I agree with most at 4300-4100 as a possible end of this pattern.

 

[jersey10]

Well I disagree.
Infact my analysis is the exact opposite.

Much has been written in the Parent XAO thread.
I agree with most at 4300-4100 as a possible end of this pattern.

What is your time frame before we hit that target Tech?
And then what? The start of a new bull market?

 

[tech/a]

Bugga just noticed I put that in the wrong thread.

Time---I really dont know.
Analysis "timing" isnt my thing.
But some others have offered up some insight.

But as for the start of a NEW bull market that should last for years.
I tend to agree with those who are saying years--5-7 yrs.

Between now and then ranging between 6880 and ---who knows.

 

[Flathead Flick]

But as for the start of a NEW bull market that should last for years.
I tend to agree with those who are saying years--5-7 yrs..

Based on what? The stars? You gotta have something to back this up.

 

[agro]

Bugga just noticed I put that in the wrong thread.

Time---I really dont know.
Analysis "timing" isnt my thing.
But some others have offered up some insight.

But as for the start of a NEW bull market that should last for years.
I tend to agree with those who are saying years--5-7 yrs.

Between now and then ranging between 6880 and ---who knows.

where did you learn all that t/a graphing from?

also,

so if you had to consider a long-term view, most of the stocks now look cheap as chips really?

e.g. BHP at 38 , could well b 100 within 5 years?

 

[tech/a]

Based on what? The stars? You gotta have something to back this up.

No not at all.
The analysis comes from a few who are more experienced in the field of Elliott and fib than I.
I guess we wont know if they are right until either.
(1) The timeline of 5-7 yrs expires
(2) Price breaks the upper limits before the expiration of the timeline.

But like all analysis technical and or fundamental its is simply opinion which in the end is proven or not.

where did you learn all that t/a graphing from?

I guess over 14 yrs of tech analysis I've picked up the odd thing.Its basic Elliott.

also,

so if you had to consider a long-term view, most of the stocks now look cheap as chips really?

e.g. BHP at 38 , could well b 100 within 5 years?

Yes of course--- but like property you can hold it for years and see it do zip and you could do that with any number of stocks BHP included.
Ther trick we ALL are trying to apply is timing.
Best utilization of our $$s.
If we knew that BHP wasnt going to move much between $30- and $50 over the next 5-7 yrs but could go from $30-150 closer to the end of that time line we may consider better use of that $500K we have sitting ready to invest in BHP while we wait!

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Now that the olympics develpoment push is now done and dusted, extra demand will have to come from somewhere.

i think after the Olympics we should see a big recovery in our resource sector..

lets not forget the chinese steel mills are shut down for the time being

after that our big 3 miners - bhp, rio and fmg can start sending ships over again

Could also easily go the other way around.

Think about how much of our resources have been used to help create all the infrastructure for the games. Once they are over, then what?

The Olympic infrastructure is a drop in the ocean in an economy that is building the equivalent of a city the size of Brisbane every month.....

Pretty clear that the post Olympics blues is a factor (whether it be neutral or negative) in everyones thinking. Let's be absolutely clear about this - yes, other Olympic cities have suffered the blues but China is not a city. It is a nation and a pretty big one at that. This from the China Daily today...

To prepare for the Games, Beijing spent about 13 billion yuan ($1.89 billion) to build sports facilities and 280 billion yuan ($40.75 billion) to improve urban infrastructure.

Such investments helped Beijing's economy grow an estimated 10 percent faster in the past seven years, said Yang Kaizhong, president of Beijing Economic and Social Development Research Institute.

But the 293-billion-yuan bill, hefty as it is, only accounted for 0.55 percent to 1.06 percent of China's fixed asset investment between 2005 and 2008, the peak time for Olympic-related investments, Wang said.

And Beijing, the main recipient of Olympics-related investment, only accounts for 3.6 percent of the country's gross domestic product.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-08/18/content_6944441.htm

I guess you have to live here to see it happening... everywhere. The city building that Beej refers to... picture the outskirts of a town that you have never heard of and you drive past a building site with 50 tower cranes, each one hovering over an apartment block in the making - and that is just one building site in one town that you have never heard of. Try as they might, and they do, even the central government struggles to slow this down. It's amazing to witness it happen. I'm picking it to continue to shape the global economy for the next twenty years.

 

[wayneL]

To return to the context:

But.... what if commodity demand weakens? Even static demand would probably result in price falls in the near/medium term as more supply comes on line.

Now that the olympics develpoment push is now done and dusted, extra demand will have to come from somewhere.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Try as they might, and they do, even the central government struggles to slow this down. It's amazing to witness it happen. I'm picking it to continue to shape the global economy for the next twenty years.

First thought i had reading that is, why is there such high demand for more infrastructure and who is creating the demand.

The government runs the show as far as i know.The building of an empire like we have never seen before maybe.Modernisation and upgrade maybe.They`re going to have to export alot of something aren`t they?

 

[tcoates]

In case you were unsure whether we hit the bottom...

http://www.eurekareport.com.au/iis/iis.nsf/pages/4AA7A272E4B388E3CA2574A9008070F1?OpenDocument

Damn it. Now I am still confused.

Tim

PS. In fairness, these are the views from various financial inst. but goes to show there is still a variety of opinion as to where we are currently situated in the market.

 

[Aussiest]

I actually find the Eureka Report authors heavily biased towards buying into the market / the market going up. They must have a vested interest in it .

 

[Aussiest]

Oh yeah, and it seems full of authors who all want to raise their profile in the hope of being the next market guru. I take most things written in the Eureka Report with a grain of salt.

 

[white_goodman]

Well I disagree.
Infact my analysis is the exact opposite.

Much has been written in the Parent XAO thread.
I agree with most at 4300-4100 as a possible end of this pattern.

hmmm so at 4200ish we shall see a nice wave 1 hopefully followed by a nice wave 3... does elliot wave give a time factor on when this is happening or just that Wave A = Wave C?

 

[sqwark7600]

You still need oil to make plastic.

But.... what if commodity demand weakens? Even static demand would probably result in price falls in the near/medium term as more supply comes on line.

Now that the olympics develpoment push is now done and dusted, extra demand will have to come from somewhere.

And yesterday with a commodity turn on the rumour of a pending Chinese growth stimulus announcement you seem to have the situation and sentiment pegged. :iagree:

 

[Julia]

I actually find the Eureka Report authors heavily biased towards buying into the market / the market going up. They must have a vested interest in it .

Yes, of course they have. They are part of a large industry which functions on consumers being in the market. If everyone decided, stuff the market - it's too hard - and put their funds in the bank at 8% instead, well their jobs become a bit shaky.

So we'll continue to see various so called analysts telling us XYZ is really cheap at present and a good buy. BNB, anyone?

 

[prana]

i
the interest rate's and oil prices was un called for and the jump was to harsh-(lets not lie about that)

we all know this is a good country and we are tough-but yet we seem to follow the silly people-
i mean this credit crunch is related to people who cant pay back or am i wrong here?

what happen to the good old days when u needed a decent % for a house loan- i knew their was going to be problems when u give people 100-110 % $$$?

There's certainly some interesting questions raised here in this topic, and this one is an interesting post - I thought I'd participate. Apart from someones explanation above re cash rate target, I should also point out there is a historical reason for the asset growth thus far that has fuelled inflation of credit growth faster than 'normal'. In this, the consumption shifts from the expense via operating cash, to asset credit. Although you correctly pointed out above that the credit crunch was triggered by the housing crisis, its the tip of the iceberg. So much of the credit market is not 'just' houses, negative credit resulting from large deflation of assets (triggered by subprime) that has experienced too much boom. The result of ignoring inflation and fuelling excessive consumption, and now the opposite, the destruction of asset valuation due to the result of too much inflation and bad monetory policy, and the crushing result of attempting to kick start the economy by money supply dilution through more consumption (MORE CONSUMPTION!!!! It's ludicrous)). Undoing this 'trend' is going to be extremely difficult - and will probably never really be the same again - we'll probably end up somewhere in between the 2 extremes when equilibrium arrives.

The question about how it affects Australia, it does heavily. When money dilution occurs (in USD) many non-divisable commodities are traded against real money value, as well as sentiment. When both are being fuelled by tigtening supplies and increasing demand, this creates a huge forward bubble in futures taking into effect the dying dollar - this inflates our economy too far. It is in my opinion, (I'm probably a minority I dont know) that the RBA is indeed doing an excellent job in forward predicting inflation and now this asset deflation period.

I don't want to say too much more in case I get booted out of this forum - but instead of blaming the media, I'd like to ask you this question Nick - do you feel you are being made to pay for the war in Iraq, the mortgage crisis of Freddie & Fannie's irresponsibilities, and now deal with the shrinking (or even negative) credit due to irresponsible asset bubble creation ? Needless to say, I am not a big fan of Bernanke and together with the Bush administration, I really do believe this is the root of the problems. I also believe this steals from the already hungry and starving ppl of the lesser developed nations by further fuelling their inflation (food exports rush). It's a dangerous game they play, and it costs ppl their lives. I don't blame the media, I blame Helicopter Ben, and Bush.



ps. I'd also like to know when the market will show signs of recovery. All elliot wave stuff is great for my reading cause I dont understand it, and can't do it (but I'm very open to it)