Good point.Australia's economy would go into an immediate nose dive.
Without China we are a land of flooding plains.
IF Oz aligned with the USA our major exports would lose their principal customer.
Healthcare?The only market grouping I can see that will get an immediate push up from the conflict is the Rare Earths Sector.
Pretty much everything else will initially go south on the ASX.
gg
In my experience each time someone has uttered the words "will be bad juju" @Sean K it has been a worrisome few hours or days for me.Vodka Pelosi is probably visiting Taiwan in the next few days. China say they will respond. Not sure what that could mean, but surely not any physical attack, that would be too much of an escalation. Perhaps a fly over the island with a bomber and some fighters, or a cyber attack.
China supporters will be saying that the US have no right to visit Taiwan at this level of representation and they are the one's escalating the situation.
Not sure how markets will be affected once China do invade. Will be bad juju if the semiconductor facilities in Taiwan are collateral damage going forward.
My guess is, a lot depends on how much advanced chip manufacturing equipment and IP is still left there, if it is too difficult to relocate and or destroy, I would think if China gets hold of it the U.S tech sector would take a big hit.Well, I expected some fly-overs and a cyber attack, both of which occurred, but launching ballistic missiles into Taiwan and Japanese territory was probably an over-reaction. Especially into Japan's EEZ.
I think China is miscalculating here. Japan is the third biggest economy and has an extremely strong 'self defence' force. If you bring Japan into the game you bring in the US, then NATO. And, quite possibly, India.
The only peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue, IMO, is that they remain a self governing 'province' and mainland China leave them alone.
IRT the thread title, 'where to stocks and bonds', I think this would be very different to the feeble and inept Russian invasion of Ukraine and economic fall out. Surely China have seen what globalism of economies, resources and energy means when you are the bad actor.
Well, I expected some fly-overs and a cyber attack, both of which occurred, but launching ballistic missiles into Taiwan and Japanese territory was probably an over-reaction. Especially into Japan's EEZ.
I think China is miscalculating here. Japan is the third biggest economy and has an extremely strong 'self defence' force. If you bring Japan into the game you bring in the US, then NATO. And, quite possibly, India.
The only peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue, IMO, is that they remain a self governing 'province' and mainland China leave them alone.
IRT the thread title, 'where to stocks and bonds', I think this would be very different to the feeble and inept Russian invasion of Ukraine and economic fall out. Surely China have seen what globalism of economies, resources and energy means when you are the bad actor.
My guess is, a lot depends on how much advanced chip manufacturing equipment and IP is still left there, if it is too difficult to relocate and or destroy, I would think if China gets hold of it the U.S tech sector would take a big hit.
The Chinese could destroy any advantage the U.S has in the AI and high tech space.
Just guessing, as is everyone else.
My guess is, a lot depends on how much advanced chip manufacturing equipment and IP is still left there, if it is too difficult to relocate and or destroy, I would think if China gets hold of it the U.S tech sector would take a big hit.
The Chinese could destroy any advantage the U.S has in the AI and high tech space.
Just guessing, as is everyone else.
China would want to take the semiconductor industry intact, it definitely wouldn't want to damage it but the U.S might, just a thought.I'm not sure if China would target the semiconductor industry when they bomb Taiwan as it would be self defeating. And, I don't think China can actually take Taiwan by force. Taiwan's 100km+ moat protected from the N, E and S is too much.
The war mongerers that really run the USA would happily sacrifice Taiwan to the Chinese if it caused crippling sanctions against China.*Thinking grand strategic planning*
I think the US is baiting China into a war against Taiwan. This will result in crippling sanctions and huge economic cost to China. The international community, less the autocratic States and those beholden to the B&R debt trap, will shun China for decades and severely weaken China. This could possibly lead to internal strife in China and the ultimate breakdown of the country resulting in the US emerging once again as the single superpower.
Just a thought.
From The evil Murdoch Empire comes an interesting analysis by recently deposed Lib Candidate Dave Sharma.Throughout 1973, Egyptian forces along the Suez Canal regularly engaged in military exercises. Israel had captured the Sinai Peninsula during the 1967 war and Israeli forces were stationed along the canal’s eastern bank. During the spring and summer, on six occasions, Egypt conducted exercises that resembled genuine military operations. On two of those occasions Israel was sufficiently concerned that it mobilised its defence force, at great expense, only to stand down.Then on October 6, 1973, Yom Kippur in the Hebrew calendar, Egypt went further. Egyptian forces laid down pontoon bridges across the Suez Canal, breached the Bar Lev line, Israel’s defensive fortifications, and struck deep into the Sinai Peninsula.It remains Israel’s worst military disaster. Though the tide eventually was turned, the invasion stunned Israel. Israel suffered significant casualties and losses of equipment, and had to scramble to stop the joint Egyptian and Syrian advance. Asked afterwards why he had not mobilised Israel’s defence forces in October, Moshe Dayan, the defence minister at the time, conceded to having been tricked. Having already mobilised the defence forces twice, at great expense and for no purpose, he did not wish to be duped again.Egyptian president Anwar Sadat had succeeded in normalising high-intensity military operations in proximity to the de facto border. This was why, when he eventually chose to strike, it came as a surprise.
Former ASPI Executive Director Peter Jennings says Beijing wants to push the key message “nothing is going to stop” China from taking Taiwan. Mr Jennings said Beijing is hoping Taiwan will be coerced into accepting an offer… of unification. “The risk of an aggressive action on the part More
The People’s Liberation Army now is engaged in the same preparation phase with respect to Taiwan. China has exploited the visit by US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to expand the dimensions of its military activity and normalise aggression across the Taiwan Strait.
In the initial four days of the PLA’s live-fire exercises, according to Taiwan’s defence ministry, 41 Chinese vessels and 110 Chinese aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait. Eleven ballistic missiles were fired into waters north, east and south of Taiwan. The drills subsequently were extended by the PLA by two days. These exercises served a valuable military purpose for the PLA: increasing preparedness, improving interoperability and providing valuable lessons for future operations across the Taiwan Strait. But they also served a more important strategic purpose.
Through these exercises, the PLA has effectively obliterated the median line across the Taiwan Strait as the unofficial buffer zone.
The PLA now will operate with greater frequency and intensity across the median line. This will impose continued stress on Taiwan’s military readiness and preparedness, and impose sustained psychological pressure on Taiwan’s leadership and civilian population. And just as Sadat stepped up the frequency of Egyptian exercises to dull the senses of Israel before launching a genuine attack, China will be in a position to do the same.
While an attack remains unlikely in the near term, the episode has shortened the time horizon for potential Chinese military action against Taiwan and lessened the warning of such an attack.
The United States military said on Tuesday (August 16) that it had carried out a test of a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile, delayed to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing during China's show of force…
The PLA exercises also provided a vivid demonstration of China’s capability to operate militarily up to and beyond the first island chain, showing the relative ease with which Taiwan could be blockaded. Indeed, this is the way any forcible attempt by China to take Taiwan is likely to start: with a blockade that seeks to force Taiwan to negotiate some form of reunification. Taiwan and its allies will have to acquiesce or seek to break the blockade militarily.
Pelosi’s visit, the most senior by a US politician since Newt Gingrich visited Taiwan as US Speaker in 1997, was an attempt – seemingly without Biden administration support – to alter the status quo in favour of Taiwan. (When Gingrich, hardly an appeaser, made his visit in 1997, he made sure to stop in Beijing beforehand.)
But China’s response to the Pelosi visit, and to this week’s two-day visit by a five-member bipartisan congressional delegation led by Senate foreign relations committee member Ed Markey, also has succeeded in altering the status quo, and in a way deeply unfavourable to Taiwan.
Taiwan has emerged in a more precarious position because of Pelosi’s visit. Any greater international legitimacy afforded by the Pelosi visit, which is slight, has been more than outweighed by China establishing a new military norm across the Taiwan Strait that has gone largely unchallenged, to the detriment of Taiwan’s strategic position.
When China last conducted exercises of this intensity across the Taiwan Strait in 1995, the US military sent an aircraft carrier battle group through the Taiwan Strait. This time no such decisive response will be forthcoming.
Former ASPI Executive Director Peter Jennings says a “weak United States” is the “best opportunity” for China’s victory. “I think the Chinese conclude that with a weak United States the best opportunity they may have to pull…
Australia has been right to criticise the PLA’s aggressive military action against Taiwan. But as the Chinese ambassador’s speech to the National Press Club in Canberra last week made clear, we should be under no illusions that this will alter Beijing’s behaviour.
Taiwan’s unique position within the international system is fragile. It depends on the maintenance of a high degree of ambiguity: that Taiwan remains part of “one China” but that any attempts to unilaterally alter the status quo and reunify by force are illegitimate. Thoughtful strategy and Taiwan’s survival demand that such ambiguity be preserved.
Pelosi’s intent may have been laudatory, but she has managed to undermine Taiwan’s security and bring the prospect of military action from Beijing closer. In doing so, she has damaged the security of allies such as Australia and Japan.
Our interest remains the preservation of the peaceful status quo in the Indo-Pacific, with all its ambiguities, not diplomatic adventurism that increases the risk of conflict.
Dave Sharma is the former Australian ambassador to Israel.
.The war mongerers that really run the USA would happily sacrifice Taiwan to the Chinese if it caused crippling sanctions against China.
I'm confused .. who's the warmonger?With the twin distractions of the US/Russia proxy war, the Israel /Iran proxy war, now would be the perfect time for China to launch a quick attack on Taiwan.
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