Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

When China invades Taiwan: Where to Stocks and Bonds?

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qldfrog said:
Very seriously, how long do you think our country could run without China?
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My point is more that we may have no choice other than to find out.

It's a bit like the pandemic lockdowns or something like a bridge falling down. Suggest that it's possible and you could argue for a decade with many saying that no, that'll never happen.

Then when it does happen the new reality comes into existence just like that. Ready or not it happens. :2twocents
 
There will be no invasion. "Infiltration" has been occuring for years now and a large percentage of the population travel to mainland China for work.
Taiwanese and Chinese merely have a difference of opinion over government.
If Honkers can just roll over after being British occupied, Taiwan is a doddle.
Han Chinese won't go and fight Han Chinese.
When dealing with Taiwanese business people, I haven't found a difference between them and mainland.

Can't help on the stocks or bonds issue.
 
basilio said:
Just a bit of perspective about war and devastation.

I just finished watching a doco on SBS. It was the final of a 3 part series on the German blitz on Liverpool in May 1941. Seven nights of hellish bombing that killed thousands of people and destroyed tens of thousands of homes and buildings. The suffering and tenacity of those people ..:speechless:

The doco highlighted the seven days through the lives of a handful of people. Makes one feel very, very fortunate to have skipped that period (Let's pray we don't have a reprise.)

www.sbs.com.au

The Blitz: Britain On Fire | Documentary

Presented by Michael Buerk, Angellica Bell and Rob Bell, this three part stripped event focuses on eight critical days in May 1941, when Britain, and Liverpool in particular, was subjected to one of the most intense bombardments of the Blitz . Using eyewitness accounts and recollections from...
www.sbs.com.au
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Yes my Mum was 12 through that and my dad was 14, my grandfather shipped troops from Singapore to India, my father was 16 before he actually met his father.
A real crap time and ended up with real crap families, trust me. lol
 
frugal.rock said:
When dealing with Taiwanese business people, I haven't found a difference between them and mainland
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Actually, I experienced a stunning difference between the few Taiwanese persons i met and the many,many,many ? mainland Chineses .deep cultural one.
Taipei did not wipe its culture during the cultural revolution and they kept other gods than money.
A much softer culture..but that makes them even more fragile.
As for the effects,not sure i know..really depends onhow outraged the west will pretend to be.
Realistically, Asia will just say ok.US will probably have soft trade sanctions,leaving Xi giggling
And causing a real issue here between making a political stance and real politics
Europe will make a stronger posture but still economic, reducing sales of Audi BMW and german machinery...
we could see the first full scale cyberwar with China doing business as usual behind their own wall,tested during 2 decades while they collapse our free for all network.
.Will not hurt having physical gold and a bit of cash on hand.
agree that BTC would be a concept if internet is down for weeks or months
We will suffer but market will be closed or inaccessible.my2c view
 
Peter Zeihan has been predicting an east-asia oil tanker conflict for quite some time:




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This following link explains the entire situation and how acutely aware the yanks are of the cards they are holding here and it is well, well worth a read: https://capitalistexploits.at/these-changes-promise-to-completely-change-global-markets/

and this link explains what china is doing about it: https://capitalistexploits.at/how-china-is-capturing-global-energy-market-share/
 
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Russia is now massing troops and ordnance on the Ukraine border. In fact this seems an even stronger flash point for a war.
Has echoes of the USSR crushing the Hungarian uprising in 1956 while the English and French were trying retake the Suez Canal.

I wonder if Russia and China are co-ordinating their foreign policy moves to divide world attention?

I think stocks markets will take a real beating if these situations escalate. They are already toppy.

www.theguardian.com

Kremlin defends Russian military buildup on Ukraine border

Intelligence reports show Russian tanks and short-range ballistic missiles just 150 miles from Ukraine
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Gun salute for Prince Philip
1618139989531.png

What hope for Taipei if the UK navy needs Hazmat suit to shot celebration rounds?.?
Beware the toxic fumes and the H&S inspectors...
 
basilio said:
I wonder if Russia and China are co-ordinating their foreign policy moves to divide world attention?
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I think they are at they moment, not necessarily to actually launch, but to test out the plan. China's been testing Taiwan air defences for months just to find gaps and identify targets.

But, as we can see by the stock and bond stats, it'll be a buying opportunity more than anything.
 
Once Taiwans microchip manufacturing capability has been neutralised, why would the U.S go to war, the sabre rattling appears to be a time wasting excercise, agreement between Xi and Joe has probably already been done.
China has already admitted it has to develop its own microchip technology capability.
 
sptrawler said:
Once Taiwans microchip manufacturing capability has been neutralised, why would the U.S go to war, the sabre rattling appears to be a time wasting excercise, agreement between Xi and Joe has probably already been done.
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sptrawler said:
China has already admitted it has to develop its own microchip technology capability.
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Neatly, I hope, bringing the thread back on topic.... From Antipodes APL discussing the portfolio it leads me to suggest buy Samsung:

"Talking about supply chains, the global semiconductor chip shortage is showing no signs of slowing. You may have heard about storms in Texas and earthquakes in Japan hitting semiconductor production, but again, there’s a bigger picture at play.

We’ve been investing in semiconductors for a number of years now because we recognised significant structural growth tailwinds.
The world is digitising, workloads are moving to the cloud and 5G will facilitate a whole host of developments like better handset experiences, connected cars and autonomous driving. All of this requires more and more semiconductors to process increasingly complex tasks.

COVID has pulled forward some of these trends – think consumption of online content, e-commerce and remote working. This, combined with the rebound we are seeing in economic activity and a few supply issues, has resulted in the well-publicised global shortage.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) and Samsung Electronics are the only two companies globally that can manufacture leading edge chips for tech companies around the world. Both are top ten holdings in the APL portfolio.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
Neatly, I hope, bringing the thread back on topic.... From Antipodes APL discussing the portfolio it leads me to suggest buy Samsung:

"Talking about supply chains, the global semiconductor chip shortage is showing no signs of slowing. You may have heard about storms in Texas and earthquakes in Japan hitting semiconductor production, but again, there’s a bigger picture at play.

We’ve been investing in semiconductors for a number of years now because we recognised significant structural growth tailwinds.
The world is digitising, workloads are moving to the cloud and 5G will facilitate a whole host of developments like better handset experiences, connected cars and autonomous driving. All of this requires more and more semiconductors to process increasingly complex tasks.

COVID has pulled forward some of these trends – think consumption of online content, e-commerce and remote working. This, combined with the rebound we are seeing in economic activity and a few supply issues, has resulted in the well-publicised global shortage.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) and Samsung Electronics are the only two companies globally that can manufacture leading edge chips for tech companies around the world. Both are top ten holdings in the APL portfolio.
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You might be better off with SMIC.
 
I really hope I don't have to mention the massive, worldwide microchip shortage at the moment, but for those who don't know, entire car assembly plants have had to be mothballed because not even automakers can actually get their hands on the chips they need to produce their cars.

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I suspect they're going to take care of taiwan only long enough to become self-sufficient in microchips and then even the taiwanese, like the koreans virtually are already, are on their own.

You don't place two aircraft carrier battle groups in the south china sea within spitting distance of the chinese coastline without reason. I would have thought that would go without saying, but apparently not.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Well that didn't take long.

So let's leave the maps and strategy to Xi, and discuss the effect on stocks and bonds.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...of-taiwan-air-zone-in-a-year-after-us-warning

gg
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Samsung and the like of NVIDIA AMC could benefit but I suspect we have too short a view regarding the shift of manufacturing from Taipei to the west: China has really a grip on all the parts and even if we could make a CPU in the silicon valley, that is only a start:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chip-shortage-qualcomm-idUSKBN2B32OO
But facts will not break a great story, so in case of invasion Samsung and Intel etc will jump first just because they are western based , then when reality strikes, and no samsung phone has been produced, then Joe...will lift trade sanctions.....
So investment wise: samsung & the big americans mentioned above for a 1 month play only IMHO
 
qldfrog said:
Samsung and the like of NVIDIA AMC could benefit but I suspect we have too short a view regarding the shift of manufacturing from Taipei to the west: China has really a grip on all the parts and even if we could make a CPU in the silicon valley, that is only a start:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chip-shortage-qualcomm-idUSKBN2B32OO
But facts will not break a great story, so in case of invasion Samsung and Intel etc will jump first just because they are western based , then when reality strikes, and no samsung phone has been produced, then Joe...will lift trade sanctions.....
So investment wise: samsung & the big americans mentioned above for a 1 month play only IMHO
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Its not that easy to place 10 or 20 lazy small ones on Samsung.

Any ideas on best way to buy Samsung shares or derivatives?

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Its not that easy to place 10 or 20 lazy small ones on Samsung.

Any ideas on best way to buy Samsung shares or derivatives?

gg
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indeed ...on the Korean stock exchange only, so your best bet seems thru ETFs..probably a South korean one..But expecting South Korea to boom while Taipei is being annihilated is a jump of faith, or you then get samsungs with others which will get wiped out...Sorry no solutions but buying gold, can of beans and ammos
 

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