Dona Ferentes
Pengurus pengatur
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well that took even less time
well that took even less timeWell that didn't take long.
So let's leave the maps and strategy to Xi, and discuss the effect on stocks and bonds.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...of-taiwan-air-zone-in-a-year-after-us-warning
gg
It begs the question of WHY would there be a conflict?Opinions on what will happen to stocks and bonds (and global markets) if China were to Invade Taiwan please folks.
This thread is about financial markets, not military might.
I do wish the keyboard warriors from General Chat would bugger off back there so that Members of Aussiestockforums could discuss matters of stocks and bonds.Opinions on what will happen to stocks and bonds (and global markets) if China were to Invade Taiwan please folks.
This thread is about financial markets, not military might.
It begs the question of WHY would there be a conflict?
We could open threads on any number of hypothetical conflicts and their potential affects on markets. But surely the basis of any such threads should have some meat?
And regarding military might, while there would be an immediate market effect from a conflict, the less immediate value of any transactions is going to be determined by the likely outcomes of the conflict.
It begs the question of WHY would there be a conflict?
We could open threads on any number of hypothetical conflicts and their potential affects on markets. But surely the basis of any such threads should have some meat?
Perhaps that's a topic for another thread if it is something that someone wanted to explore in more depth.
It is certainly an idea that is currently being discussed in the media and is considered to be a real possibility by many. There can be many discussions about related issues, but you can't have all of them in the one thread.
I'm happy for those who wish to discuss how or why such an event might come to pass, or which country has a better military force or more military might, to do so in a thread dedicated to those propositions.
There is nothing to stop anyone from starting a new thread about any topic.
Well just start the bloody thread and let the rest of us get back to stocks and bonds. ffs.Yes we could start a thread where we count the number of super carriers in each countries arsenal or which country has the oldest warships in active service? It shouldn't take too long to get through that one.
Thanks DF. Semiconductor and other IT hardware will be affected. But in what way I don't know. I'm still unsure how to invest in Samsung which seems the major beneficiary. It is very tightly held, and ADRs I believe are traded in London and OTC in New Yawk. There are I believe some ETFs which lump in Samsung with some some other Asian stocks including some from China of all places.Hey GG, when the chips are down, the chips start flying, eh.
But we have established Taiwan has a world class semiconductor biz and Samsung is the nearest likely contender. That's good.
I wonder if any other product, company, sector, is as pertinent?
The basis for this thread is an hypothetical conflict.It is certainly an idea that is currently being discussed in the media and is considered to be a real possibility by many. There can be many discussions about related issues, but you can't have all of them in the one thread.
sorry but yes for Samsung, we have no luck in Aus. or even in the US:Thanks DF. Semiconductor and other IT hardware will be affected. But in what way I don't know. I'm still unsure how to invest in Samsung which seems the major beneficiary. It is very tightly held, and ADRs I believe are traded in London and OTC in New Yawk. There are I believe some ETFs which lump in Samsung with some some other Asian stocks including some from China of all places.
Oil and Gold should shoot up, as will old materials such as copper and iron stocks.
Lastly it should see the end of bitcoin and "cwazy twading" which will take much young and restless money out of trading and return the charts to some normality.
Generally there is a hit and a recovery with war, not as severe as a GFC though.
Interesting times.
gg
So presumably bonds in Australia would tank and interest rates rise thus giving the Government an out on runaway house prices.The basis for this thread is an hypothetical conflict.
The conflict will have an immediate market effect effect and a longer term effect.
Punters would need to react quickly once the conflict broke out if they were to gain on a gamble - the first move is always down in US markets if America is involved.
As the conflict outcome became clearer the extent of the downward movement would become clearer and stock prices would adjust accordingly.
In the improbable event this hypothetical drew out, then the USA would need to issue war bonds because they are already deeply in the red. There is a real chance that a protracted war would turn US bonds into junk bonds.
Aside from that, Stock exchanges in different countries are likely to have counter movements. European markets could well rise, and India's too as they will be beneficiaries from the scenario.
Were I a punter in such a scenario I would look for a bottom to the SSE Composite and dive in.
Well just start the bloody thread and let the rest of us get back to stocks and bonds. ffs.
gg
The basis for this thread is an hypothetical conflict.
The conflict will have an immediate market effect effect and a longer term effect.
Punters would need to react quickly once the conflict broke out if they were to gain on a gamble - the first move is always down in US markets if America is involved.
As the conflict outcome became clearer the extent of the downward movement would become clearer and stock prices would adjust accordingly.
In the improbable event this hypothetical drew out, then the USA would need to issue war bonds because they are already deeply in the red. There is a real chance that a protracted war would turn US bonds into junk bonds.
Aside from that, Stock exchanges in different countries are likely to have counter movements. European markets could well rise, and India's too as they will be beneficiaries from the scenario.
Were I a punter in such a scenario I would look for a bottom to the SSE Composite and dive in.
In such a scenario as you originally proposed, China could take out TSMC and Samsung so that the USA had no access to cutting edge technology for their war effort, so avoid investments in the northern Pacific regions.Thanks DF. Semiconductor and other IT hardware will be affected. But in what way I don't know. I'm still unsure how to invest in Samsung which seems the major beneficiary. It is very tightly held, and ADRs I believe are traded in London and OTC in New Yawk. There are I believe some ETFs which lump in Samsung with some some other Asian stocks including some from China of all places.
Oil and Gold should shoot up, as will old materials such as copper and iron stocks.
Lastly it should see the end of bitcoin and "cwazy twading" which will take much young and restless money out of trading and return the charts to some normality.
Generally there is a hit and a recovery with war, not as severe as a GFC though.
Interesting times.
gg
Good point @qldfrog . Korean stocks get the jitters.sorry but yes for Samsung, we have no luck in Aus. or even in the US:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...-where-to-stocks-and-bonds.36185/post-1117747
In such a scenario as you originally proposed, China could take out TSMC and Samsung so that the USA had no access to cutting edge technology for their war effort, so avoid investments in the northern Pacific regions.
Australia's economy would go into an immediate nose dive.So presumably bonds in Australia would tank and interest rates rise thus giving the Government an out on runaway house prices.
Which might indicate a credit squeeze and calamity for the property market in the near term.
gg
Australia's economy would go into an immediate nose dive.
Without China we are a land of flooding plains.
IF Oz aligned with the USA our major exports would lose their principal customer.
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