What stocks are on your radar now?

[honey85]

What stock are you keenly looking at now and maybe some reasons to share with us?

I have a small scope of stocks (maybe due to being a newbie) like some gold stocks, LEI, BHP and recently IPL. I have invested twice in banks and luckily got out without any harm done and I won't be touching them in near future.

honey85
newbie

 

[sinner]

Re: What stocks are in your radar now?

What's your reasoning for looking at (and which) gold stocks, LEI, BHP and IPL?

So far from what I have seen (and I mean no offence) you don't seem to be putting a lot of research into your picks. Happy to be proven wrong.

 

[honey85]

Re: What stocks are in your radar now?

What's your reasoning for looking at (and which) gold stocks, LEI, BHP and IPL?

So far from what I have seen (and I mean no offence) you don't seem to be putting a lot of research into your picks. Happy to be proven wrong.

That is why I put this thread in Beginner's Lounge. I want to know why one picks these stocks and the other not picking these stocks. Asking is part of learning (or researching) isn't it?

Well, I have just started looking at gold stocks as a whole due to so much attention diverted to gold prices lately. LEI because it is the biggest construction company and with all the gov stimulus it looks positive in my opinion. BHP because it is BHP!:

 

[Joe Blow]

Re: What stocks are in your radar now?

That is why I put this thread in Beginner's Lounge.

And I have moved it to ASX Stock Chat because it is primarily about stocks.

Anyone nominating a stock (or number of stocks) must supply a reason why that stock is on their radar. This will help others understand why you're interested in it and will hopefully assist in generating some useful discussion.

 

[investorpaul]

Re: What stocks are in your radar now?

That is why I put this thread in Beginner's Lounge. I want to know why one picks these stocks and the other not picking these stocks. Asking is part of learning (or researching) isn't it?

Well, I have just started looking at gold stocks as a whole due to so much attention diverted to gold prices lately. LEI because it is the biggest construction company and with all the gov stimulus it looks positive in my opinion. BHP because it is BHP!:

I own LEI, bought years ago for $8 and will continue to hold as a long term investor.

The first question to ask is are you a short term trade (ie a couple of weeks or months) or are you buying for the long term? Because the above stocks will act differently for you depending on your time frame.

Also the best bit of advise is read as many books as you can, read the papers and begin to understand what makes the market tick.

 

[honey85]

I started off thinking to be a medium-long term investor (at least a year) and I invested in a bank Then, I started to read more and more and got freaked out with the prospect of bank that's why I pulled out, violating the rules of a long termer. I still look to invest for at least one year and my favourite pick is actually LEI.

And this thread is not supposed to concentrate on me: I need some newbies here who share a slightly narrower scope of knowledge so we can understand each other For pros, I will be more than appreciative to read your reasoning for your stocks And don't pick on me so much can?

 

[nick2fish]

Nice Picks Honey, and I'll tell you my opinion why

Your favorite LEI, solid company, reasonable gearing, international focus including a big footprint in big spending Dubai and a full order book.

BHP, the worlds biggest Diversified miner, and the diversification is the key here. World commodity demand is way down, yet Uranium,Gold are leading lights and my hunch is oil and copper will not be held down for too much longer.

IPL, The mining downturn is going to hurt this company, but that IMO has already been factored into Sp price and world agriculture needs should remain durable because lets face it we all have to eat.

The most important step to get right is the initial entry point and if you get this one wrong you had better get used to the color red.
We are in a bear market and the trend is down for the moment

To me it seems as your research is good, but be very careful and a stop loss is a must, even for an investor, in a bear market. Stop out and you will probably be re-buying the same stock at another 10% discount in another month. Take Care, Cheers

 

[wonderrman]

I'm not buying anything I'd prefer to sit out and wait. I do have 30% invested all ready though but I think I should have held out. Jumped in to soon.

When I buy I will probably only be buying some of these http://www2.standardandpoors.com/po...es_asx20/2,3,2,8,0,0,0,0,0,2,3,0,0,0,0,0.html or http://www2.standardandpoors.com/po...es_asx50/2,3,2,8,0,0,0,0,0,2,3,0,0,0,0,0.html.

I'm of the opinion that things are going to get worse. All though holding cash is proving to be a bad investment at the moment, I would prefer to loose 1% on cash then another say 50% on shares over the next few years.

When the time is right the top 20 and 50 will probably be extremely cheap and I would be looking to buy them for the long term (minus banks).

Obviously I'm talking about investing here, not trading. Other people's answer will differ.

 

[johenmo]

Nothing. Being new, I am testing my first system. Timeframe is a few days to a few weeks. Depends on the triggers for buy and sell. Longest hold so far is 12 market days.

Still hold NAB, QBE and OZL. QBE are fluctuating between green and red.

The waves are still too large. And after reading Nick Radge's report from March 2007 (somewhere here on ASF) I am happy to be cautious.

 

[sinner]

Your favorite LEI, solid company, reasonable gearing, international focus including a big footprint in big spending Dubai and a full order book.

I don't like LEI exactly because a chunk of their money as you mention is Dubai money, a country whos economy is overheating fast.

Read this

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=av8CVL1H3T3U&refer=home

BHP, the worlds biggest Diversified miner, and the diversification is the key here. World commodity demand is way down, yet Uranium,Gold are leading lights and my hunch is oil and copper will not be held down for too much longer.

BHP could be a good commodities play if it continues to get cheaper but any debt makes a company no-go for me. I agree on the diversification point, but they already started closing sites to cut costs.

IPL, The mining downturn is going to hurt this company, but that IMO has already been factored into Sp price and world agriculture needs should remain durable because lets face it we all have to eat.

You can see the leverage leaving this company like air leaving a balloon. I have attached a long term chart for your examination. Could not break resistance at all after the market Nov lows bottom fishers came out and has continued lower.

With a debt/equity ratio of 79.8%, it's once again a no for me. I am guessing you anticipate a bounce.

The most important step to get right is the initial entry point and if you get this one wrong you had better get used to the color red.
We are in a bear market and the trend is down for the moment

To me it seems as your research is good, but be very careful and a stop loss is a must, even for an investor, in a bear market. Stop out and you will probably be re-buying the same stock at another 10% discount in another month. Take Care, Cheers

Good advice.

As for gold stocks to buy right this second, read this

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12488.htm

 

[Mr Capital]

Looking to get into QBE @ around the 20-21$ mark.
& WOW @ around the 22-23 mark.

 

[kpas]

Iron Ore is heating up.

Because of this, BRM, FMG and BHP are on my radar.

Looking to diversify a little and thinking outside the square (given the direction commoditys could go) - will post again when I find others that I actually purchase.

 

[Mr Capital]

Iron Ore is heating up.

Because of this, BRM, FMG and BHP are on my radar.

Looking to diversify a little and thinking outside the square (given the direction commoditys could go) - will post again when I find others that I actually purchase.

I hope so, I took a nice little battering from FMG, I'd like to see it close to 5$.

 

[pan]

Iron Ore is heating up.

Because of this, BRM, FMG and BHP are on my radar.

Looking to diversify a little and thinking outside the square (given the direction commoditys could go) - will post again when I find others that I actually purchase.

iron price is driven by demand, this is decreasing as the economies around the world slow.

Until demand increases again, iron ore wont increase too much.

 

[kpas]

iron price is driven by demand, this is decreasing as the economies around the world slow.

Until demand increases again, iron ore wont increase too much.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKSYD21061920090204

Cut and paste for those who don't want to click the link:

By James Regan

SYDNEY, Feb 4 (Reuters) - A massive build-up of iron ore stockpiles in China that prompted suppliers to defer millions of tonnes in shipments last year is ending, pushing spot prices higher, BHP Billiton Ltd/Plc (BHP.AX)(BLT.L) said on Wednesday.

Around 68 million tonnes of ore had piled up at Chinese ports by late November with another 125 million tonnes stored at steel mills, according to analysts' estimates. [ID:nSYD394433]

The build-up had led BHP, the world's biggest diversified miner, to defer delivery on 6 million tonnes, or around 5 percent of its annual production, which it sold at a discount on the spot market instead, further depressing prices.

As a result of China's destocking, spot market prices for ore had rebounded to within 10 or 15 percent of last year's contract price, BHP Chief Executive Marius Kloppers said.

"The destocking is essentially complete," Kloppers said, after BHP reported a 2.2 percent rise in first-half profit to $6.13 billion before writedowns that pared net profit to $2.62 billion. [ID:nSYD392775].

Barring a second collapse in demand, the company hopes to keep up production in the second half, Kloppers added.

Iron ore generated almost a fifth of the company's first half revenue and $4.14 billion in earnings before interest and tax, according to BHP, more than any other division.

Chinese and Japanese steel mills are locked in talks with top miners Vale (VALE5.SA), Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) (RIO.L) and BHP to set a next annual benchmark price for supplies, pushing for a cut of around 45 percent, partly based on sharp spot declines in prices late last year.

Spot iron ore at one point in 2008 sold for up to $197 a tonne, close to double the annual benchmark price that runs until March 31, before recoiling sharply as demand dried up and inventories swelled.

"We saw the price during the destocking cycle track below the marginal cost of production," Kloppers said. "But with the destocking cycle nearly complete in China, we have seen it trade up to not very far from where it was settled last March."

Kloppers said he hoped to see BHP's first half production of ore maintained in the second half, totalling 130 million tonnes for the full year, but warned BHP was not immune to "the strong winds that are blowing" in commodities markets.

A contraction in the next benchmark price would ring down the curtain on half a decade of uninterrupted price hikes that benefited the mining sector. (Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

 

[wonderrman]

This is what Charlie Aitkin had to say on the matter ....

The “Iron Mountain” comes down again; BUY FMG




While Chinese iron ore stockpile data isn’t 100% reliable, like all Chinese data, the trend of the data is more important than its absolute accuracy.

The good news for Australian iron ore exporters is that the trend of declining Chinese port stockpiles continues. This is having an inverse effect on “spot” iron ore prices which have recovered sharply off their lows and now imply a drop of just -15% in benchmark iron ore contract prices this year.

There are signs of hope in iron ore with Chinese stockpiles falling, spot prices rising and the Baltic Dry Shipping Index +50% off recent lows due to demand for iron ore ships. Usually at this time of year the Chinese are doing everything in their power to talk down the iron ore market and keep spot prices under control. This time around all the indicators are moving in the iron ore producers favour ahead of the contract price negotiations.

Similarly, Chinese steel mills have been RAISING prices for HRC and slab and those price rise are sticking (I remain of the view OST, BSL and SGM are medium-term bargains down here). It’s also reported that Chinese steel mills are running low inventories of finished product and are starting to ramp up production in anticipation of demand increasing on the back of domestic stimulus packages. It appears to worst of Chinese steel industry capacity utilisation is behind us and you can see this clearly in the inventory, spot price and BDI recovery.

We have written for some time that we believed consensus iron ore contract price forecasts were “too pessimistic” (some down -50%) and likely to be upgraded as we got closer to the contract price negotiations and that does seem to be occurring. BHP appear to share that view and are said to be delaying the negotiation process to move the situation more in their favour. As much as it sounds impossible, I think the Australian iron ore sector is “cum consensus upgrade” when iron ore contract prices settle down only -25%. With the currency also down -25% this would be a great outcome for Australian producers who report in Australian Dollars. Could this be an example of “short the rumour, buy the fact”?

Fortescue (FMG) remains the leveraged and liquid pure play on iron ore and they did report a record December quarter of production. The cash position is $430m and margins remain strong. I think the shorters of FMG were surprised by the year-end cash position and record production. The shipping target for the next six months is 17.6mt. 17.6mt x US$75t divided by .6500usc = $A revenue of A$2.03bil for the next half. Yes, all things going well FMG will book A$2bil of revenue in the next half at a margin of around 55%. FMG has no bank debt, just bond holders. It’s biggest cost is diesel prices and they are down sharply. CEO Andrew Forrest will be presenting in our office tomorrow night to institutional investors. FMG continues to look an extremely cheap stock and I am staying on this ride.

Iron ore, in Australian dollars, continues to look dramatically better than coking coal where the price decline will be extremely unpleasant. Long iron ore short coking coal??

 

[saiter]

I'm trying to learn more about VSA and I'm also trying to learn AFL so I can just scan stocks. All I've got at the moment is ANN, and I'm analysing it using VSA (I'm still a newb so don't use this to trade, I'm not going to even trade it )



Also, does anyone else think the professionals are starting to accumulate as the XAO is going sideways?

Thanks.

EDIT: The last text box should read "Supply is going dooooooown. Possible bounce due to support or there could be a downwards gap to trigger stops tomorrow."