What are we buying on Monday?

[CBerg]

Just to keep this going. I don't understand this forum not discussing opportunities. There are so many on here who seem quick to want to discuss politics or predict the end of the world or the top or the bottom, there should be some genuine discussion going on about what can be captured going forward.

End of Rant.

To provide some substance to this post here' an all ords chart with an ATR indicator. We are almost at GFC extremes (and probably are as the indicator is lagging). Crazy times. Don't think it's ever been this steep

Interesting to see that divergence between the ATR and price at extremes seem like a pretty buy signal, aka volatility drops but price moves lower, thats the signal to enter.

View attachment 101440

I like the idea of buying but my balance sheet doesn't have unlimited buy capacity either. I probably fired my shots off earlier at the end of last month. If I had cash to spare I'd probably be buying up hand over fist.

I'm not an index buyer so I want to understand the balance sheet(will it survive in a credit scarce environment) and earnings outlook. What are the opportunities you're eyeing off? I've got a few up my sleeves but I think I've already posted on a lot in the individual stocks thread over time anyway.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Probably worth adding USD to your Monday shopping list IMHO.

Anyone buy some USD?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Just to keep this going. I don't understand this forum not discussing opportunities. There are so many on here who seem quick to want to discuss politics or predict the end of the world or the top or the bottom, there should be some genuine discussion going on about what can be captured going forward.

End of Rant.

I was selling when you were buying and I've been buying when appropriate! The stuff I bought hasn't gone further down so I am fully allocated.

Long duration bonds have gotten creamed recently so I'm actually a bit underweight there as I sold some while it was overweight and then it went down.

I'll probably buy some of those next!

 

[sptrawler]

Just to keep this going. I don't understand this forum not discussing opportunities. There are so many on here who seem quick to want to discuss politics or predict the end of the world or the top or the bottom, there should be some genuine discussion going on about what can be captured going forward.

End of Rant.

I've been nibbling away at Banks, LIC's & CWY, but I'm down 30%+ overall on the portfolio. I think opportunities will present going forward and when my term deposit matures in June, there may still be opportunities.

 

[kid hustlr]

Anyone buy some USD?

75% of my shares are in offshore holdings with USD a big chunk of that based on weightings.

I've always been a firm believer that aussies who hold property should be 'hedging' (not the correct term in this context) with USD and some gold/bitcoin however my ratios probably weren't high enough given recent events.

Cberg, I think any stocks which have held up well on a relative basis are worth a look. From there filtering out the traditional safe havens (gold shares / Woolies,Coles etc) probably gives a decent starting point.

At some point the deep fundamental investor are going to spot some real bargains I would think.

Would you rather be short or long right now?

 

[Ferret]

I think opportunities will present going forward and when my term deposit matures in June, there may still be opportunities.

I think the best opportunities might not be until after June.

 

[CBerg]

...
Cberg, I think any stocks which have held up well on a relative basis are worth a look. From there filtering out the traditional safe havens (gold shares / Woolies,Coles etc) probably gives a decent starting point.

At some point the deep fundamental investor are going to spot some real bargains I would think.

Would you rather be short or long right now?

I don't know, I'm trying to piece it together.

 

[wayneL]

I think the best opportunities might not be until after June.

June 2025?

 

[sptrawler]

I don't know, I'm trying to piece it together.

Any business that hasn't got a strong business model, or strong balance sheet, or isn't funded by Local, State or Federal Government, is going to struggle to survive. IMO
This appears to be the 25 year, wash, rinse, repeat event.
Just my thoughts.

 

[CBerg]

Any business that hasn't got a strong business model, or strong balance sheet, or isn't funded by Local, State or Federal Government, is going to struggle to survive. IMO
This appears to be the 25 year, wash, rinse, repeat event.
Just my thoughts.

Exactly, "balance sheets don't matter until they do" is a quote I've read before and I think summarizes my investing outlook broadly, even in the good markets I like a strong balance sheet.

As mentioned previously I don't have unlimited buy power, I'm only starting out the investing journey really so every bit counts but mistakes are costly too.

 

[Sharkman]

Just to keep this going. I don't understand this forum not discussing opportunities. There are so many on here who seem quick to want to discuss politics or predict the end of the world or the top or the bottom, there should be some genuine discussion going on about what can be captured going forward.

i DCA'd once into IVV + VEU as planned, a couple of days after you created this thread, but have basically done nothing else. i'll look to do the same again at some point, maybe in a couple of weeks on another big down day, but no immediate hurry as i don't want to burn thru all my ammo too quickly. however for the next DCA if AUD/USD has dropped to anywhere near 0.5000, i might switch in IHVV instead of IVV.

the only other trade i've done since the start of this thread is sold 2 (yes two!) contracts of BHP OTM puts, for a couple of reasons;

1) my BHP holding is 200 short of a round number due to weird lot sizes in some options i got assigned a while ago (sometimes BHP contracts go to 104 lot sizes for reasons that are still unclear to me), so wouldn't mind getting assigned on these puts to top it up to a nice round number at a sizable discount to the current price and if not, i still collect some decent time decay, and

2) i wanted to find out just how much of the spread the MMs would make me cross in this sort of market, and for that purpose i was fully prepared to cross as much of that spread as i had to in order to get a fill (given that it was only 2 contracts i didn't really care about having to cross the gigantic spread, was mainly doing it for science), by moving it in a tick or two every few seconds. much to my surprise, i got filled very near the mid (1.19 into a 0.80/1.59 spread) for a cool 100 IV at the time, or in other terms 4.4% of the stock price for 12 trading days of decay.

i'm also aware of the irony here given i complained in another thread about the move to 100 lot sizes resulting in some of my 50 or 100 contract orders getting annoyingly nibbled at by 2 or 3 contract trades in the past. but now the nibbled has become the nibbler!

i'm glad i did that trade though, probably the most useful aspect of the trade is the information i got that maybe options aren't quite as untradeable in this market as i first thought, despite the huge spreads, at least in the very liquid names. looking to sell premium into these super high vols might be worthwhile, eg. sell short dated covered calls or vertical calls on those occasional but huge one day rallies.

 

[Ferret]

June 2025?

That could well be right.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Sold my puts a bit earlier today.

Bought some more QUS.

Bonds have bounced back sharply, didn't get a chance to buy last weeks dip in GSBE47 there.

All of this means I'm a bit overweight cash/gold and underweight stocks/bonds vs my desired allocation but things are moving fast and as long as the numbers stay +/- 5% of my desired 25% allocations I am comfortable to move with a bit more caution towards the next rebalance.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Payday on Wednesday so I need to think about where that cash will go too.

 

[moXJO]

Sold my puts a bit earlier today.

Bought some more QUS.

Bonds have bounced back sharply, didn't get a chance to buy last weeks dip in GSBE47 there.

All of this means I'm a bit overweight cash/gold and underweight stocks/bonds vs my desired allocation but things are moving fast and as long as the numbers stay +/- 5% of my desired 25% allocations I am comfortable to move with a bit more caution towards the next rebalance.

Is there a thread where you explain your system?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

There's a bunch of posts here https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...king-panic-thread.23227/page-142#post-1008958

Just look up the Permanent Portfolio. You split your assets between stocks, long duration Government bonds, cash and gold 25% each and rebalance as appropriate to keep them around that level. You sell stuff that's going up to buy stuff that's going down, harvesting volatility of uncorrelated assets along the way.

Within the allocation for stocks, bonds and cash "envelopes" I give myself the freedom to employ various quantitative or fundamental systems to manage my exposure to different factors, systems and currencies. I used to do this a lot more actively but switched all my exposure to Australia at the start of 2019 because I was low on free time, so it was all VAS, GSBE47, AUD. Probably a mistake to have exited my various USD exposures then, if I was still sitting on TLT it would've crushed my GSBE47 exposure, but you can't win them all!

The put buying is not part of the portfolio, it was just a lucky punt I took because I couldn't believe the way the markets kept going up while the Chinese were shutting their economy down.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Bought some GSBE47 today out of cash plus fresh payday cash to bring my cash overweight/bond underweight more in line.

None of my allocations are at exactly 25%, but in this environment what can you expect.

 

[mikejosef]

From Motely Fool

There are 14 stocks on Macquarie best buy list. This includes gaming machine maker Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ASX: ALL), global packaging group AMCOR PLC/IDR UNRESTR (ASX: AMC), hearing implant developer Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH) and iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG).

Others on the list are industrial property company Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), online property classifieds REA Group Limited (ASX: REA), toll road operator Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) and Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN).

Rounding up the group are gold miner Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), donor management system company Pushpay Holdings Ltd (ASX: PPH), private health insurer Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL), waste company Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (ASX: CWY), insurance broker Steadfast Group Ltd (ASX: SDF) and IT services group Technology One Limited (ASX: TNE).



Don’t try picking the bottom
“This note is not about calling the bottom. It’s about highlighting a group of quality stocks that investors could start to buy now, acknowledging that even the best investors rarely invest all their money at the bottom,” said Macquarie.

“Investors can also change their portfolio to allocate more to one or more of the stocks we highlight.”

 

[InsvestoBoy]

It's Fri but I bought some IWLD in the super today, somehow super is a lot more balanced than my personal accounts.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I bought some 10% OTM June puts on STW at around XJO 5180 to clip the left tail on my equity exposure.

Certainly cost me a lot more than it did last time I bought puts with the ASX VIX at 43...