Re: Octaviar MFS Premium Income Fund PIF
Seamisty. lawry1dog. Following article might raise your hopes. Did mine. PIF essentially only holds rights over commercial property.
Business Spectator
12 August 2009
Stephen Bartholomeusz
Stockland's silver lining
"The sharemarket response to a Stockland result awash with red ink from impairment charges was less than enthusiastic. There are signs within the results, and more particularly in the group’s view of its outlook, that the rate of decline in property markets might be slowing.
Stockland announced a loss of $1.8 billion for the 2009 financial year, while claiming an underlying profit of $631.4 million. The operating result was overwhelmed by more than $1 billion of impairment charges and a further $1 billion of devaluations of its investment properties.
The group, however, has entered this financial year with modest gearing (16 per cent) and a lot of cash (more than $1 billion) thanks mainly to the $2.7 billion of new equity it raised over the past year and, while it expects capitalisation rates in its commercial portfolio to soften further before the end of this year, appears to see a floor to the market.
Cap rates have been blowing out steadily across the commercial property sector at the rate of 50 basis points each six months.
Stockland now anticipates further softening of between 25 basis points and 50 basis points in the first half but says this would take its average capitalisation rate to about 2004 levels and, in the absence of material rent reductions or a large over-correction in values, it expects rates to stabilise around those levels.
Given the capital it has raised, the write-downs Stockland has already taken against its residential communities and apartments business and the $334 million of charges against its "strategic" investments, the general commercial property market environment is probably the most significant residual source of near-term risk to its balance sheet.
The worst fears about the condition of the broader economy haven’t yet been realised. Business and consumer confidence is improving. Residential property activity and prices have picked up. The rate of decline in commercial property values appears to be slowing. The influences that have destabilised the listed property sector over the past year may now be, if not actually stabilising, at least waning.
The view that a massively recapitalised A-REIT sector has overcome the worst of the threats to its stability is shared by the market. The A-REITS have rebounded nearly 50 per cent from their sharemarket lows in March, although the sector is still trading at only about a third of the levels it held before the failure of Lehman brothers sent it into a tailspin and forced a spate of big capital raisings under pressure.
Stockland believes buying opportunities are emerging and has its foot on strategic holdings in GPT (13 per cent) and the FKP and Aevum retirement living groups (15 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively). It is, however, conscious that the massive amounts of equity it raised at distressed prices has pushed up its cost of capital and therefore the hurdle rates at which acquisition might make sense.
The levels of uncertainty and risk that have pervaded the sector over the past year have inhibited large-scale corporate activity. Stockland began its initial assault on the weak and wounded prematurely and has taken some big hits as a consequence.
Having had that experience, one would expect that any significant move the group makes from this point would be a significant demonstration of conviction that the worst is, if not behind the sector, then almost. "