Weekly and daily forex analysis

[mauriforex]

TOMORROW MARKET CLOSED

Good evening,

In this Holy Thursday (last day of trading for Cfd) the stock markets had a positive session compared to the drop of yesterday.
We had a good data on Canadian GDP (1% and slightly more than expected), not so good the U.S. GDP (0.4% less than expected).
In Forex we had a session of correction for the dollar and a stronger one for the euro waiting for the last trading day that, with all stock indices closed, will be less liquid and more volatile.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the assumed retracement I wrote yesterday happened today. Paying attention to the lack of liquidity that we will have tomorrow and Monday, we can look for a short trading signal to enter the downtrend!


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Hi traders,
as usual I prepared my video analysis to show you how interesting and profitable is my method in the currency and commodity market!

Enjoy it and have a nice Holy Easter.
God bless you
Maurizio Orsini

 

[Douglas Class]

USD/CHF DAILY as of Friday, 29 March, 2013
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected a possible point 4 of a WolfWave (21%) pattern for US Dollar / Swiss Franc. This pattern is an expanding triangle and trades from the next point. When the peak or trough will form, usually after crossing or touching the extended line of points 1 and 3, the price will move in the opposite direction towards the target line formed by the extension of points 2 and 4. An Inside Day Narrow Range was detected by your Elliott Waves High Volatility on 29/03/2013. This is usually a trade set-up .
Elliott Waves High Volatility has detected an Isolated Low at 0.95 one bar ago ; this is usually a bullish sign
The present wave patterns are:
fast amplitude (8%): bullish wave 2
moderate amplitude (13%): bullish wave 1
normal amplitude (21%): bullish wave 1
US Dollar / Swiss Franc is long term Bullish as the 144 days moving average of 0.93 is increasing. The Relative Strength Index is at 55.86 in the neutral territory. The Relative Momentum Index is at 73.69 in the overbought territory. An important indicator for Elliott waves, the Elliott oscillator is at 0.01, in positive territory; this is a bullish sign. An equally important indicator, the STORSI is at 63.57. This value is in the neutral territory.

 

[mauriforex]

BULLISH MARKET

Good evening,

after a slow start the stock markets turned positive and seemed not to have suffered from Italian politics uncertainty, with a good close for Paris, Frankfurt and Madrid.
The RBA decided to keep rates unchanged at 3% not excluding in the future an increase of expansionary policies in order to achieve the inflation target.
The unemployment in Europe continues to be worrying because it’s still at record levels of 12%.
From Europe we also had the Consumer Prices Index of Germany at 1, 4% (slightly higher than expected).

ANALYSIS
Nzd/Usd: after the bullish candles of last week (which I considered to enter at market) the price broke upwards the bullish continuation triangle. The technical target of the probable bullish movement is in the resistance area 0.8530. A momentary pullback on the level 0.8390 could represent a second opportunity of purchase for those who left out of the trade.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

JAPAN, UK, EUROPE: INTEREST RATE!

Good evening,

the bullish movement of the European markets had a short life, as today the strength of the sellers came back, especially for the "weaker" countries of the euro zone as Italy and Spain.
Tomorrow we will have a very important session in view of the interest rate decisions in Japan (the first for the new governor Mr.Kuroda!), in the UK and in Europe. Analysts are expecting a general confirmation of the current levels, however from the ECB are reaching some "rumors" about new future reductions. Pay attention to the press conference Mr. Mario Draghi that, as always, can generate important movements of volatility for the euro.

ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: we are in a bearish medium and short term move that draws today an internal Pin candle which attempted a technical correction. The breakout of yesterday's low (1.2390) could push the cross downward to area 1.23 before and 1.2150 after.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

MR.KURODA RESPECTS THE EXPECTATIONS

Good evening,

according to the forecasts, the three central banks confirmed today the interest rates (0.10% in Japan, 0.50% in England and 0.75% in Europe), but especially the governors' statements have been more interesting. The new chief of the Bank of Japan has announced a sharp increase in quantitative easing, to achieve the inflation target, by means of further asset purchases, even of higher risk.
From Europe, Mr. Mario Draghi in his press conference announced that inflation expectation remain firmly anchored and the ECB policy will be accommodative as long as needed (without cutting the interest rate in the short term) while governments should continue to implement reforms. Nothing new from the BoE.
Tomorrow we will have another session of high volatility especially with the Non Farm Payrolls, the most important market mover of the Forex market.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: after the BoJ communication the Yen collapsed causing at the same time a massive dollar purchases. The currency pair increased nearly 300 pips to the important resistance area 96.50. The breakout of this level would be a confirmation of the bullish momentum and would give me the absolute conviction to look for a buying trading signal with target on level 100.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Hello traders,
we are at the end of another week characterized, as expected, by high volatility in the last two days. We saw important movements in some currencies and commodities which are close to very important price levels (such as Gold and Silver) and there will be great trading opportunities for next week!
You can see a part of my full weekly analysis as usual.

Have a nice weekend and see you next Monday!
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

YEN SELLING

Good evening,

after the "explosive" days of the last Thursday and Friday, we have seen today a much more quiet session in the absence of particularly relevant market movers: movements of "settling" for the equity indices and for the major currencies that still show a strong euro and a weakness of the yen.
Tomorrow we won't have very important macro news, but only a certain attention to the industrial production and manufacturing production in the UK.

ANALYSIS
Gbp/Nzd: the pair is very close to the historic bottom level (1.79), within a phase of accumulation of the medium term downtrend. The confirmed breakout of this support area (might be possible considering the current strength of New Zealand Dollar) could push this cross down to a possible target on area 1.75.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

GOLD UPWARD

Good evening,

also today stock markets had no very strong movements, closing the session in a contrasted way. Still in absence of important macroeconomic data (except the industrial and manufacturing production in UK, better than expected) we will wait tomorrow for the important Minute of the FOMC, to know the specific indications emerged in the last meeting of the Fed.

ANALYSIS
Gold: after having tested the important long-term support level, also seen in my weekly video last Friday, this precious pushes up returning close to the $ 1,590 (and to the EMA21). We have to control the next major resistance area (static and dynamic) $ 1615/1620 to evaluate a possible continuation of the bullish strength or, on the contrary, a reversal candle that might lead to the closing of our Long actual trade and, possibly, the search for a short signal.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

SUPER NZD

Good evening,

stock markets had a stronger session today and showed a purchase strength especially in Milan, Madrid and Paris.
The dollar is slightly recovering, while continues the increase for the euro and especially for the "Commodity currencies" (Australian and New Zealand), pushed up by the good data of the Chinese import.
In the Minute of the FED, released with anticipation, the members appeared sharply divided on how long the bond purchase plan should last, with one of the members that considered a possible decrease (is the stimulus plan going to an end?!)
Among the major market movers of tomorrow we can remember the Consumer Price Index in Germany and some data on the Australian labor market.

ANALYSIS
Gbp/Nzd: the New Zealand Dollar strength led to the breakout of the support level 1.7915 (as I wrote before yesterday) preparing for a possible decline to the next important area 1.7470. Now let's look for one of my trading signals to evaluate a short entry! Of course, in case of return up to the key level mentioned above (and therefore in case of a false bearish breakout) we will consider a bullish set up for a possible return to the top of the channel recently violated (1.8430 level).


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

STOCK MARKETS UPWARD

Good evening,

as expected, the inflation in Germany remained unchanged (1.4%), unlike the unemployment rate in Australia that, in March, rose to 5.6%, above the expectations. We had an initial weakness of the Australian dollar which recovered in line with the bullish short-term movement and tied to the strength of the stock market indices.
These ones confirmed the positive trend, closing a positive session with historic tops for the American market.
Tomorrow the most important market movers will be from to the United States with the Retail Sales and the usual monthly appointment with the Confidence Index from the University of Michigan.

ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: despite the strength of the Australian, the pair continued its bearish movement (in line with the medium and short term trend) leading my short operation, opened a few days ago, to the take profit at 1.2190 before turning a little bit upward. The momentum is still bearish, so I'll keep looking for new sales trading signals of my plan in the next resistance level 1.2310.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Hi everybody,

like every Friday here you have my video analysis about the macro and graphic situation for next week.
I always remind you, if you want, the opportunity to take advantage by testing the 30-days free trial (totally free) of my service "Forex Friends" of daily trading and training videos with no intraday trading method!

Have a nice week-end.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

PANIC SELLING FOR GOLD

Good evening,

after a positive start of the session, the major stock indexes turned negative closing down a day without important market movers. As last Friday, today we saw a sharp drop in the price of Gold (see the chart below), which confirms the reversal in the medium-term trend, as well as for Silver.
Tomorrow, in addition to the Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the German ZEW index, we will have the Consumer Price Index in different geographic areas: England, Euro zone, U.S. and New Zealand (all expected unchanged except in U.S. with a possible decrease).

ANALYSIS
Gold: the break out of the long-term historical support zone ($ 1.500/1.520) led the price reach many stop loss, of long positioned investors, creating a "domino effect" which became a true "panic selling" of the long positions. The price, which at the opening of last Friday was quoting $ 1560, today has touched the 2-years bottom of $ 1.355 inverting the medium-term movement. The actual goal is to find a momentary retracement to enter this great movement that could have, even in the short term, a target in the support area 1.310 $.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

RETRACEMENTS

Good evening,

the Boston attack and the collapse of some commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper) have contributed to increase the weakness in stock markets which closed, today, an uncertain session.
In its Minutes the RBA announced that the cuts of Australian interest rates (-1.75% from November 2011) have contributed to boost some sectors of the economy and its effects have not yet been fully revealed. RBA also comunicated that other interest cuts still may be needed in the future (although probably not in 2013).
The German ZEW index was lower than expected, showing a decline in confidence due to the euro area debt crisis and to the recent macro indicators below the expectations.
UK and Euro zone CPIs were in line with expectations while US one was a little bit lower.
Tomorrow will be characterized by the Minute of the BoE, by the interest rate decision in Canada and the Fed Beige Book.

ANALYSIS
US Oil: the technical pullback we saw today for raw materials led WTI to react in the dynamic level $ 86 with a strong bullish candle. The breaking out of the $ 89 area (even being a countertrend) could push the price to $ 92 (beware the expiration of the contract of this CFD scheduled for Thursday, April 18!).


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

NO CHANGE IN CANADA

Hello traders,

after a positive start of the European markets, they turned down confirming the weakness of yesterday that we didn'see for Asian and Americans indices.
The Minutes of the Bank of England showed that the last confirmation of the interest rate was unanimous, but there are still 3 of the 9 members of the Board in favor of an increase in the Quantitative Easing (from 375 to 400 billion pounds, increasing for this reason, the weakness of the currency).
Everything as expected in Canada with the confirmation of the interest rate at 1%.
From the United States the usual publication of the Fed's Beige Book about the U.S. Economy.
Tomorrow we will have the retail sales in the UK and the jobless claims in the U.S.

Today I show you a demonstration video of my trading method in the Forex market, considering two recent operations performed on NZD purchase.

See you tomorrow.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

AAA FOR GERMANY

Good evening,

today we will have the beginning of the G-20 meeting in Washington to discuss over the economic outlook and the issue of "currency war"; while stock markets after a good start (with the confirmation by Moody of the triple A for Germany, but with a negative outlook) closed contrasted influenced by Wall Street.
In Forex we had a slight strengthening of the euro and a dollar unchanged.
From the economic calendar we saw a retail sales data in England below expectations and the jobless claims in USA higher than expected (352k).
Tomorrow we will have, as main market mover, the consumer price index in Canada.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the euro tries to ricover but it’s influenced by the resulting of the presidential elections in Italy. The pair is still in the important area 1.3030 / 1.3050 which (in line with the short term trend and being above EMA21) could bring back again the quotation on level 1.3150, exactly where they were before the words, said yesterday, by the "wise" Weidmann, of the Bundesbank.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Hello traders,

the G-20 continues today in Washington (with the finance ministers and central banks). The euro zone crisis remains the main topic of discussion, as it has been defined, by the IMF, as the cause of the decrease in global growth estimates. Another key issue for the G20 is the currency situation, in order to avoid voluntary currency depreciations for commercial advantages (of course without making direct references to the Bank of Japan!).
Today's session, in financial markets, has been characterized by an upward correction, however, in a week in which the strength of the sellers has been predominant.
The most important macroeconomic data today was the Consumer Price Index in Canada, which was in line with expectations (1,4%).

As every Friday I prepared a short video analysis about the economic calendar and some interesting trading opportunities for the next week (including 2 nice trades in selling Yen!).

Have a nice week-end everybody!
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

NO CURRENCY WAR!

Good evening,

the G20 confirmed the invitation not to adopt devaluation policies for commercial purposes ("absolving", however, the extraordinary policy recently adopted by the BoJ) emphasizing on the contrary the importance of monetary policy as a tool which aims to stabilize domestic prices and stimulate growth.
Today stock markets had positive opening, also considering the new election of the President of the Italy, but changed its move during the session, except Milan and Madrid.
In absence of very important macroeconomic data we will wait for the interest rate decision in New Zealand scheduled tomorrow night (European time).
In Forex we had another session of strength for the US Dollar, uncertainty for euro and another bullish retracement candle for gold.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the very short term sideways trend continues within the levels 1.3130 / 1.3020 but above the moving average. A strong bullish signal could be considered for a purchase (with target on the top of the range) otherwise a downward break, later confirmed by a bearish setup, could be negotiated with a profit target on area 1.2750.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

NZD: NO CHANGE IN 2013

Good evening,

last night we had the confirmation of New Zealand's interest rate at 2.50% , but also the RBNZ's indication about the maintenance of the current level through all 2013 (with the obvious strengthening of its currency). From Oceania we also received the inflation data of Australia which was lower than expected (2.5% vs. 2.8%).
From the United States we had the Durable Goods Orders and from Germany the IFO index, both below expectations.
The most important market mover for tomorrow will be the UK's GDP.
Stock markets close another positive session.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Chf: the pair is within a short-term bullish move but very close to a significant level (0.95 / 0.9550) of static and especially dynamic resistance (the long term downtrend line). Thus, we might consider a short entry, in presence of a strong bearish setup of my trading system with first target area on 0.9240.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

INTEREST RATE IN JAPAN

Good evening,

UK’s GDP has been higher than expected (0.3% in the first quarter compared to 0.1% expected), avoiding the recession in the country and strengthening the pound against the dollar and the euro .
The stock markets had a positive session with ongoing "rumors" about possible upcoming cuts of the ECB interest rate, despite the disagree of Chancellor Merkel.
Tomorrow pay attention to the volatility of the yen and the dollar for the interest rate decision in Japan (and the following press conference Mr.Kuroda) and for the U.S. GDP.

ANALYSIS
Gold: the bullish pullback continues and, after a brief pause two days ago, it is going closer to the resistance area $ 1460/1470 highlightned here in "Forex Friends" (and also corresponding to the 50% retracement of Fibonacci). At this level I will verify the presence of one of my trading signals to enter a short position and take advantage of a possible continuation of the bearish movement with first target at $ 1,410 and then in the next bottom at $ 1,330.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini