Weekly and daily forex analysis

[mauriforex]

AMERICAN QE CONTINUES

Good night,

the Bank of Japan confirmed today the level of interest rates (0.10%) as well as the actual monetary policy, explaining that Japanese economy has started picking up not because of an increase in exports, but due to the end of its decrease.
In England, where retail sales fell sharply (0.2%) not so much compared to previous data (0.4%) but especially considering analysts' expectations (1.8%), we had this morning the Minute of the central bank publishing that most of its members (6 vs 3) were not in favor of an increase of the "quantitative easing" (ie more direct intervention in the economy) because of a possible recovery in the economy and also to avoid inflationary pressures.
From Canada we had the retail sales data showing a zero growth in march (below the expectations).
The US Federal Reserve just published its Minute, anticipated by the testimony of his governor Mr. Ben Bernanke in front of the US Congress. Bernanke confirmed the continuation of the current accommodative policy in order to avoid the risk of slowing or ending the current economic recovery and a decrease of the inflation. Obviously the asset purchase could be reduced in case of a very positive outlook for the labor market.
Also tomorrow we will have a full economic calendar with the inflation expectations in Australia, the PMI manufacturing index in China, Germany and Europe, the British GDP, the consumer confidence in Europe and the U.S. data about the new home sales and the initial jobless claims.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: the main trend is still bullish but we are in a very short term lateral move and near the resistance level 103.50. In this area we will be evaluating one of my short trading signals (very carefully because it would be a countertrend!) or perhaps a return to the intermediate static and dynamic support 101,50/102 to consider new buying opportunities with more ambitious target in area 105.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini
I wait for you in www.mauriforex.com (page Forex Friends after logging in) to try the free 30-days trial of my daily videos of trading signals and training (without providing any payment information!). You can watch the introducing video here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvsklOnQEhg .

 

[mauriforex]

CONTRACTION IN CHINA?

Good night,

as mentioned yesterday we had an economic calendar full of market movers: inflation expectations of 2.3% in Australia, the Chinese manufacturing index (lower than expected and with the danger of an economic contraction that let Asian markets drop), the European PMI (above expectations), the UK GDP confirmed at 0.3%.
From the Euro zone we also had the consumer confidence (slightly better than the previous month but not as analysts were expecting); while from United States we received the data of new homes sales and jobless claims, both positive respect forecasts. In a few moments Mr.Draghi will have a speech in London.
Tomorrow we will have different data from Germany, such as GDP and IFO confidence, and the "Durable goods orders" in the United States.

ANALYSIS
US Oil: as we saw 2 days ago, in my daily article, the price reacted in the resistance $ 97.50 breaking down the moving average 21. A temporarily correction in the intermediate resistance $ 94.20 would be interesting to evaluate one of my short trading signals with a first target in the support level $ 92 (which is important looking to the reaction the price had on May 15!) and then in the static and dynamic area $ 89.


Greetings and see you tomorrow with weekly video.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Good night,

another week of volatility is over and this time it's been characterized not by interest rate decisions (only in Japan), but by a series of reports of central banks and macroeconomic data that caused strong movements on stock markets and foreign exchange. In particular, the difficult situation of the Chinese production generated tensions in global stock markets (especially in Asia) with downward corrections after the tops of the last days.
In their Minutes, several central banks (U.S., UK, Australia, Japan) have unanimously shown the intention to continue with the current expansionary monetary policy in order to ensure the system the necessary liquidity to drive the economic recovery (but the pockets of people will concretely have more availability?!) although the United States could decide a reduction of this intervention in case of very positive data from the labor market.
Next week too we will have many important market movers as the rate decision in Canada (the second-last of Governor Mark Carney before moving, next July, to the Bank of England!) and the manufacturing data in China.
Let's watch together, in my usual weekly video, the economic calendar for next week and the trading opportunities that a new dollar's rise could offer.

I wish you a very happy weekend!
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

MEMORIAL DAY

Good night,

this last week of May begins with less liquidity in the market due to the closing of the US and UK Stock Exchange for holiday.
In the Minute of the Bank of Japan it's been told as some of its members highlighted skepticism about achieving the inflation target of 2% in the next two years and therefore the need for flexibility in the adopted monetary policy.
The main market mover for tomorrow will be the Consumer Confidence in the United States.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Chf: we are in a short and medium term uptrend, with the price in the support area 0.96/0.9620. One of my bullish signals (with the arrival of the moving average too) could be interesting to confirm the end of the retreat as well as the breakout of the long-term downtrend line. The possible targets of a Long entry could be 0.9760 and 0.9850 levels.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[bailx]

Happy Days,

Good time to buy back in against Yen. 'What do you reckon'?

 

[mauriforex]

Hi,
ECB Chief Economist Mr.Praet just said QE in the eruo zone could continue and we might have new interest rate cuts..so Eur could be weaker and Usd could rise! Let's see what will happen!
Greetings, Maurizio

Happy Days,

Good time to buy back in against Yen. 'What do you reckon'?

 

[mauriforex]

NEW ECB CUTS?

Hello traders,

with the reopening of the U.S. and English market we saw a normal liquidity which led the major markets to close the session in a positive way, also considering the words of the Chief Economist and ECB member Mr. Peter Praet, according to which there will not be a decrease in monetary policy but, on the contrary, there is the possibility for further interest rate cuts to support the euro economy.
The only major macroeconomic data today was the Consumer Confidence in the U.S. which has been higher than expected waiting for the NFPR of next week.
Tomorrow, besides another BoJ governor's speech, we will have some interesting data about the labor market and inflation in Germany (and therefore correlated with the euro area) and the interest rate decision in Canada with the analysts' consensus for a maintenance of the current level.

ANALYSIS
Aud/Nzd: the strength of the New Zealand dollar (clears short/medium term downtrend) is decreasing by the current technical correction, which could draw on 1.1960 resistance area one of my clear short signals to enter the trade with a first target in the level 1.1830 and than 1.1770. Tomorrow we'll see if the daily or H4 chart will present interesting opportunities.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

DAILY ANALYSIS

Hello traders,

as expected the Bank of Canada kept the interest rate unchanged at 1% probably delegating the next governor about any decision on monetary policy changes (in fact Mark Carney will move to the Bank of England next July).
From Germany we had today the data on unemployment (confirmed at 6.9% as expected) and on inflation which was higher than the forecast.
The International Monetary Fund has reduced the estimated GDP growth of China taking it slightly below 8% (generating a weakness of the commodity currencies).
Tomorrow we will have many important data from the United States (including GDP, personal consumption, jobless claims) and also the consumer confidence in the euro zone.

ANALYSIS
Usd/Yen: the oscillation of the dollar in these days generated a slight laterality in the very short term. The main movement remains upward, above the moving average and above the most important support zone 100. So a clear Long trading signal in the level just mentioned could be interesting to enter with a target in the price level 103,50


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[bailx]

Yesterdays correction to go short proved a volatile day for me. Certainly was not expecting it after previous lows had sustained a comfortable support level as it may seem. I hope this latest news will continue to up rise the USD/YEN.

 

[mauriforex]

WEAK DOLLAR

Good night,

the macroeconomic calendar today gave us interesting data from the United States, such as GDP (+2,4% lower than expected), the personal consumption (above the forecast) and especially the jobless claims (worst than expected and generating a USD sell off), and from Europe with the consumer confidence which respected the forecast (at -21.9) but lower than the previous month.
Tomorrow, last day of the week (and of May), we will have the inflation in Japan and Europe and the Canadian GDP.
The main stock market had a good recovery except Tokyo that closed the session falling 5%.

ANALYSIS
Gold: thanks to the weak dollar, we can see a bullish move of this commodity back to the $ 1,410 resistance zone. In this static and dynamic level we could find one of my short trading signals to resume the downward movement until the potential target $ 1320.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[Nona]

You trend is up

 

[mauriforex]

Hi, sorry I didn't understand what did you mean?!!
Greetings, Maurizio

You trend is up

 

[mauriforex]

WEEKLY VIDEO ANALYSIS

Hi everybody,

today ends the month of May and a week characterized by a "standard" volatility: just one interest rate decision (in Canada), several economic data from Europe and U.S.A and stock markets that, although in a very short-term sideways range, continue to confirm the bullish move of this month denying the classic "Sell in May and go away!"
European macroeconomic data have generated a strong bullish move for the euro in the second half of the week, together with a simultaneous sell off for the U.S. dollar, especially after yesterday's data on unemployment.

Next week, in my opinion, will be the most important of June with a series of interest rate decisions (and monetary policy) and also the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls with the volatility that it will certainly generate.

In my usual weekly video I specifically consider all the major market movers for the next days and, of course, some interesting situations in my daily charts to have good trading opportunities!

Have a great weekend!
Best Regards
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

PMI MANUFACTURING

Hi everybody,

this day might be called the PMI Manufacturing Day because we have this important market mover in different geographical areas: China (49.2 lower than expected), Germany (49.4 higher than expected), Euro zone and UK (respectively 48.3 and 51.3, both above forecasts), United States (49 lower than expected).
Almost all important stock exchanges closed a negative session.
Tomorrow the focus will be on the RBA rate decision (with a probable confirmation of 2.75%) and on the April inflation rate in the euro zone.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Yen: the pair is in an important area of support (130), slightly below the moving average and drawing a series of inside candles of accumulation.
All the yen pairs are showing similar situations, according to the more or less obvious strength of the corresponding base currency. In this specific case a confirmed breakout of 129.80 level, below the bottom of the Outside candle we had on May the 23rd, could generate a new wave of sales with target in the next support zone 127. Anyway we have to manage it carefully considering the expected volatility generated by the ECB rate decision.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

INTEREST RATE IN AUSTRALIA

Hi everybody,

as expected the RBA left the interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, also considering new restrictive measures and rate cuts in the future due to the actual strength of its currency against the USD and the difficult situation of its exports (generating weakness for the AUD).
From Europe we had today the producer prices index (-0.6% below analysts' expectations).
Stock markets closed slightly positive, especially Tokyo and Madrid.
Tomorrow we will have the GDP in Australia and in the euro zone, and also the Beige Book from the Federal Reserve.

ANALYSIS
Gold: the yellow metal continues the consolidation phase just below the EMA21 and te resistance area $1415. The breaking of the upward short term trendline could lead to an important down move to the next target level at $1320. Obviously on the contrary (ie in case of breakout of the moving average and resistance) we might have an upward movement up to the previous month tops on levels $1480.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

INTEREST RATE IN EUROPE AND UK

Hi everybody,

also today I start my daily post with an Australian data, the first quarter GDP, resulted lower than expected. Otherwise the gross domestic product in the euro zone, in line with expectations, had a decline of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2013.
From the United States we had the Fed's Beige Book that reported a moderate growth of the economy (Dallas Fed was the only one of the 12 Fed districts to report a strong growth).
The main stock markets closed negative.
Tomorrow we will have high volatility due to the rate decisions in Europe and in the UK (and the respective monetary policy communications), in addition to the jobless claims the U.S.

ANALYSIS
Eur/Gbp: today we consider this cross that will be directly affected by the rate decisions of tomorrow! We are in the middle of a medium-term laterality and, just now, very close to the 0.85 support level. One of my bullish signals could push the price upward to level 0.86 while, on the contrary, a breakout of the support could generate a down trend to the static and dynamic area 0.84 and resume the uptrend line started almost a year ago. Anyway considering a good setup in one of the two extreme levels of this laterality would allow us to have a better risk/return!


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini

 

[mauriforex]

TOMORROW NON FARM PAYROLLS

Hi everybody,

today's session confirmed the weakness of the stock markets that could continue this downward phase after the upward movement of May.
As expected, nothing changed in Europe about the rate decisions of the ECB and the BoE which confirmed the current 0.50% and the current monetary policy. The English Central Bank confirmed the 375 billion pounds of monthly asset purchase while Mario Draghi, in his press conference, underlined that the ECB continues to monitor the economic development of the euro area (expected in slight decrease in 2013) and will take stimulus measures only if it’ll be necessary (the result was an upward move of the euro to the 1-month tops!).
From the United States we had the jobless claims data which was higher than expected at 346.000.
Always considering the U.S. labor market we will have tomorrow the unemployment rate and the most important market mover in Forex market, the change in nonfarm employment (Non Farm Payrolls). The same data are scheduled from Canada.
Pay attention to the volatility and the management of the opened positions!

ANALYSIS
Eur/ Usd: the confirmation of the ECB's policy appreciated further the euro which continues its very short term ascending phase. The next key level to point out is the resistance 1.32 (also dynamic for the arrival of the moving average in the monthly chart!) with the view of searching one of my short trading signals with target 1,28 . Obviously, in case of breakout the view would change into "bullish" and therefore I would be looking for buying signals. Let's wait and see what the market will decide and we'll act accordingly.


Greetings.
Maurizio Orsini