WBC - Westpac Banking Corporation

[nulla nulla]

Closing on $23.00 today after tapping $23.05 for the interday high. There was a good turnover through the day at $23.00. In the dying stages of trading wbc fell back to $22.95 but the buyers in the auction pushed the price back up to $23.00. I wonder how much of it was shorters closing out, now it is known that Waynes Swans proposed changes to banking will have minimal impact on the big banks?
If wbc can break through $23.10 it could work its' way back up to the $24.00 range.

 

[RandR]

Bought in at 22.15

I believe the outlook to be good, the only reason i would sell other then for profit taking is if employment rates deteriotate or something fundamentally changes with the business/australian economy. Although im looking at holding for 1yr plus or more unless i decide to take profit beforehand. I believe alot of the SP of this stock is driven mostly by distributions, as a lot of people see it as a yeild stock, so expecting to make some decent return on price in the 2nd half of this year when there dividend season is open.

 

[ozbrit]

WBC SP is on a good run at present and out-performing the other three. I suspect this may be a buy on the rumour/sell on the fact story. Anyone know when they're reporting, I think it's before the end of the month sometime.

 

[RandR]

WBC SP is on a good run at present and out-performing the other three. I suspect this may be a buy on the rumour/sell on the fact story. Anyone know when they're reporting, I think it's before the end of the month sometime.

Could be. I was happy to lock in some profits, sold at 25.

I have a fairly gloomy feeling that credit growth is/has been quite difficult for the banks in the last few months and in the next year or more, so was happy to take profit before the results came in.

As someone at my workplace told me the other day "you wouldnt believe how much the banks will lend me at the moment" ... i smiled and took it as a possible warning.

 

[Judd]

Anyone know when they're reporting, I think it's before the end of the month sometime.

4th of May.

Check this link for details on a number of companies. You can access it via the ASX web-site

http://www.brr.com.au/partner/asx/calendar/2011/05

 

[nulla nulla]

While the rest of the world has been sneaking higher and higher, the xao took a contrarian stance and (led by resources and banks) went downwards against the trend.

WBC had been making gains against the other banks, (mind you it had lagged behind and was overdue for a catchup particularly against anz) took a hit this week giving away most of it's hard fought gains.

Realistically, despite all the hard ships about financing costs sprooked by Ms Kelly, there hasn't been any profit downgrades and I expect the report to be another bumper profit. No doubt there will be a further rally when the report comes out. If the share price keeps slipping, I will add some to the portfolio and (hopefully) ride the rally up til it goes exdiv.

As always do your own research, all care and no responsibility. What would I know, my last trade on wbc only got across the line on the strengh of the div and the franking credit.

 

[RandR]

While the rest of the world has been sneaking higher and higher, the xao took a contrarian stance and (led by resources and banks) went downwards against the trend.

WBC had been making gains against the other banks, (mind you it had lagged behind and was overdue for a catchup particularly against anz) took a hit this week giving away most of it's hard fought gains.

Realistically, despite all the hard ships about financing costs sprooked by Ms Kelly, there hasn't been any profit downgrades and I expect the report to be another bumper profit. No doubt there will be a further rally when the report comes out. If the share price keeps slipping, I will add some to the portfolio and (hopefully) ride the rally up til it goes exdiv.

As always do your own research, all care and no responsibility. What would I know, my last trade on wbc only got across the line on the strengh of the div and the franking credit.

Interested to know if youve taken advantage of the dip to top up nulla ?

I was happy to close out at 25, if the SP moves down into the 22's in the near future i'll consider taking another bite at it, but I am quite worried about WBC ability to generate credit growth over the next year or two with a stalling domestic housing market, but none the less, will keep an eye on it. Would be happy to acquire some again at a suitably 'cheap' price, maybe the next few weeks will present such an opportunity.

 

[nulla nulla]

Interested to know if youve taken advantage of the dip to top up nulla ?

I was happy to close out at 25, if the SP moves down into the 22's in the near future i'll consider taking another bite at it, but I am quite worried about WBC ability to generate credit growth over the next year or two with a stalling domestic housing market, but none the less, will keep an eye on it. Would be happy to acquire some again at a suitably 'cheap' price, maybe the next few weeks will present such an opportunity.

Not yet. I thought the report was good. I noted the concerns re provision for potential defaults on existing mortgages and considered the market reaction was an over reaction. My opinion only.

WBC finished on the lows today and I expect it to drift lower again tomorrow (but it may only be brief) before those wanting to take advantage of the increased dividend and franking credits start to accumulate. I also expect a run up before it goes exdiv.

However the chart indicates the bottom of the channel could be as low as $22.80ish. I personaly would be watching closely for any bounce in the area of $23.50. Can't always pick the bottom, could be horribly wrong. IMO $23.50 and a bit of patience allows for a run up over $24.00 and a margin for a trade profit.

It's the external factors that you really have to try and factor in at the moment. The Sovereign debt issues worldwide, employment, inflation and the housing price bubble, etc etc.

As always do your own research (and keep some disposable nappies handy)

 

[nulla nulla]

WBC keeps getting negative overviews even when they post increased profits. Some times you have to wonder what analysts expect. IMO wbc is undevalued when compared to the CBA, NAB & ANZ. However opinion counts for nothing when the market sentiment is negative and the share price keeps dropping.

Recent highs are getting higher and lows appear to be higher as well.

 

[romeo]

another down day for Westpac, I'm glad I sold the other day @ 24.49.

I thought the report was pretty good and seemed to have good reviews in the papers etc. Perhaps the SP movement is due to a weaker outlook.

 

[nulla nulla]

Normally a share like wbc would run up in price before it goes exdiv. wbc however has run down before going exdiv closing at $23.73 (at one stage it got down to $23.51 for the second time this week).

On monday the share will be trading exdiv and I will not be surprised to see it drop $1.00 to the mid $22's. Bloody silly imo, wbc continues to post profit increases yet it is trading closer to the gfc lows than the pre gfc highs.

Still good opportunities for anyone confident of rebounds. As always DYOR.

 

[RandR]

Normally a share like wbc would run up in price before it goes exdiv. wbc however has run down before going exdiv closing at $23.73 (at one stage it got down to $23.51 for the second time this week).

On monday the share will be trading exdiv and I will not be surprised to see it drop $1.00 to the mid $22's. Bloody silly imo, wbc continues to post profit increases yet it is trading closer to the gfc lows than the pre gfc highs.

Still good opportunities for anyone confident of rebounds. As always DYOR.

If WBC does continue a slide i think it could present a decent buying opportunity, my concern with the profit increases is that they were driven by 'acquisition benefits' of st george, do you think these sort of profit increases are sustainable in the future ? That I think is the key question to the australian banking industry at large atm. But im happy to bite at the $22's.

 

[romeo]

depending on your time frame you may want to wait.

The short term chart looks like it's in a down trend, as they say, don't try to catch a falling knife. It has certainly traded below the trending channel in the charts posted above; however this was exacerbated by going ex div.

There is a pretty major support line at 22. I would wait and see if it tests this. If it goes below, the next major support is at 21.

(apologies for not posting a chart)

 

[romeo]

Having a look again at the charts and it seems that the SP has bounced nicely off the lower trendline.

Anyone have any other views on this?

This could be good for those trading the channel...

 

[skc]

Having a look again at the charts and it seems that the SP has bounced nicely off the lower trendline.

Anyone have any other views on this?

This could be good for those trading the channel...

If I was to trade WBC I would look at the other Big 4 as well. If they all show signs of strength than the set up will be more valid imo.

ANZ is looking to close the dividend gap and possibly challenge the top of the channel.
CBA looks to be forming a rising triangle.
NAB has the best strength and is retesting recent resistances (now support).

That's with the bullish lens anyway. Moody's downgraded all Big4 long term debt today but I don't believe that will have any real impact on the share price - they merely move inline with S&P belatedly...

 

[nulla nulla]

I'm surprised that anyone takes any notice of moody's and the other rating agencies. Their "ratings for fees" is highly questionable at the best of times and after the collapse of the well rated companies and products in the gfc, i think anything they say should be taken with a grain of salt....or 2 or 3.

 

[nulla nulla]

Bounced off $22.48 after going exdiv. Hit $23.06 and $23.07 before falling back, Wednesday & Thursday. Then fell back to low $22.70's today. It could go lower, however the recent lows have been higher which to me suggests we are in for a slow sideways/upwards climb? Or maybe I'm completely wrong and about to lose my shirt.

 

[nulla nulla]

Ouch, just when you think it is safe to go back in the water along come the sharks. This week wbc got smacked down to $21.46 as the doomsdayers sprooked the potentail negative impact of a collapsing Australian property market combined with an anticipatated forthcoming interest rate rise and the likelihood of the european sovereign debt having a negative impact on the 30 -40% of mortgage funds westpac borrows off shore.

Get real. Westpac over accrued for doubtful debt during the gfc and is now reducing same. Westpac has increased the ratio of deposits/mortgages and reduced it's reliance on overseas funding. The overseas funding is spread over a few years and doesn't fall due tomorrow. It all sounds like a beat up as the hedge funds decide to short the share price and spread the negative news. Fortunately the market let them run then started buying up, wbc being seen to be a bargain at $21.50 with a yield close to 10% when you factor in the franking credit.

The shorters are obviously getting squeezed out. WBC rebounded yesterday and after another pointless down grade of NZ banks by that esteemed ratings agency moody's the price jumped almost 10c in the auction as the professionals bought up the oversold stock.

Can't wait for next week.

 

[Joshbl098]

I dont think such harsh movements are due to the current news in the world, but due to the natural technical side of things. I think WBC is just about to climb to its second shoulder according to the head and shoulders analysis. Although, then again, im just a stupid first year who hasnt been in the market for very long... haha.
This could also work well as an elliot wave, 3 wave cycle down.

 

[nulla nulla]

I bought some at $21.51 last week thinking there would be a rebound over the next two weeks to the $22.50 - $23.00 range (approximate to the exdiv price of $23.73 less the div and franking credit plus some small recovery).

It looked good when it rebounded to $22.25 however the support was short lived. WBC dropped back to $21.87 at yesterdays close. Volumes were lower yesterday, but I suspect this is due to buyers holding back rather than sellers pushing down.

Buyers appear to be sitting on the sidelines, holding back, due to a combination of concerns in regard the European sovereign debt debacle, the U.S.A having a long weekend and our own Real Estate Market having low clearances last (rainy) weekend.

If it drifts lower I will consider soaking some more up for a longer term trade.