Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

War threat in Ukraine

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JohnDe said:
Stopping all international products, such as the iPhone entering Russia, will not work when there re other countries like China that can supply anything that the West takes away.
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If china had to choose between Russian Trade or Trade with west I wonder which they would choose
 
Yes the sanctions seem soft so far, but the rhetoric surrounding the conflict remains intense (whether true or not).

The US now confirms that talks between Biden - Putin that were due to go ahead on Thursday have been cancelled given recent events.

Meanwhile Putin is bussing in more troops, has warships in the Black Sea and troops on the Belarus border... I don't think he's done yet
 
Value Collector said:
If china had to choose between Russian Trade or Trade with west I wonder which they would choose
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let's tweak that question a little ... trade with the West ( using US dollars or euros ) or trade with Russia ( currently denominated in euros , BUT some chance of a mutual agreement in other terms if needed )

Russia isn't very big on sanctions or tariffs for political reasons , has a nice range of resources for sale ..

if i were the West i would think very carefully before making ultimatums , just saying
 
divs4ever said:
Russia isn't very big on sanctions or tariffs for political reasons , has a nice range of resources for sale ..

if i were the West i would think very carefully before making ultimatums , just saying
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Russia has the world's largest reserves of gas, second largest reserves of coal and third largest reserves of iron ore.

What does China need that they presently buy from another country who they've promised to bring economic suffering and misery to? Well that would be gas, coal and iron ore.

Russia also has an assortment of other minerals that China needs to import.

Australia take note. :2twocents
 
i hear Mongolia has a bit of coal , as does North Korea , Russia is still friendly with a few nearby states ( so could easily JV to help them get a share of Chinese demand ) AND China is willing to invest to procure resources it needs

China without Western goods might be painful for a while , but maybe not crippling , the BIG question is can China cope without the West vacuuming up Chinese goods
 
basilio said:
The world wide economic implications of open war in Ukraine are going to be grim. Just off the top of my head

1) Squeeze of Russian gas supplies to Europe. Price jumps, Industry and domestic crisis with supply
2) Undermining of Ukraine role as a major world food supplier. It is the bread basket of Europe
3) Racketing of oil/gas prices as Russian oil comes off the market and supplies interrupted through Ukraine. Already causing infation . Can only get worse
4) Disruption to banking services .
5) High risk of cyber warfare that undermines many government, and infrastructure facilities
6) Risk of undermining Ukraine economically with implications for sovereign debt as well as local and international businesses.

I can only see these factors putting downward pressure on sharemakets as investors recognise these situations.

So from an investment POV ...:thumbsdown:
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Just need to get the renewables in faster, they are cheaper anyway, sounds familiar?
 
Smurf1976 said:
Russia has the world's largest reserves of gas, second largest reserves of coal and third largest reserves of iron ore.

What does China need that they presently buy from another country who they've promised to bring economic suffering and misery to? Well that would be gas, coal and iron ore.

Russia also has an assortment of other minerals that China needs to import.

Australia take note. :2twocents
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Europe will be able to wedge Russia and China, because they will use dirty fuel to make cheap goods, where Europe and the West will use green fuel to make expensive but glowing green goods.
I know what people will buy, as was proven in Australia. LOL
Trump had the right idea, keep them under pressure to conform to a universal system, now we have mayhem.
What a mess.
 
divs4ever said:
i hear Mongolia has a bit of coal , as does North Korea , Russia is still friendly with a few nearby states ( so could easily JV to help them get a share of Chinese demand ) AND China is willing to invest to procure resources it needs

China without Western goods might be painful for a while , but maybe not crippling , the BIG question is can China cope without the West vacuuming up Chinese goods
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Well I think China has half a billiion poor people still and Russia can vacuum up heaps, plus SE Asia.
I guess more of a question is can the West survive, without China's cheap $hit? What do we make, except for high end exclusive stuff?
How many blast furnaces and steel mills are there in Australia, the U.K, the U.S, Canada any more?
At least getting rid of Trump has brought to a head, how exposed the West is and the fact that a manufacturing base needed to be re established.
You have to thank the loonies for something.
 
divs4ever said:
China without Western goods might be painful for a while , but maybe not crippling , the BIG question is can China cope without the West vacuuming up Chinese goods
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In the short term, and in this context "short term" means a decade, the West is a captive customer with basically zero choice.

Now if it was Russia + China and they got some others also on board, such as various African countries and Venezuela (which has massive oil reserves) well then that sorts pretty much everything they need and gives them a huge internal market for goods and services too.
 
China CAN make quality goods , but the greedy kleptocrats want maximum profit

think post WW2 Japan or Germany , China could easily make top quality products , but who will buy them , billions of people are broke ( because of government debt )
 
divs4ever said:
China CAN make quality goods , but the greedy kleptocrats want maximum profit

think post WW2 Japan or Germany , China could easily make top quality products , but who will buy them , billions of people are broke ( because of government debt )
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Money is nothing, it is an agreement between countries that they will honour their obligations, once that agreement between countries fails, the currency is worth jack $hit.
You go to China and stay in a hotel, what if they say we don't accept $AU.
Government debt, who do they owe it to?
The whole system works on trust and that is what is being tested at the moment IMO.
The West has not been in such a precarious position for a long time.
It is going to be very interesting to see how it all pans out. You may find that China and Russia form a common currency and demand it be the reserve rather than the US.
Who knows
 
divs4ever said:
who will buy them , billions of people are broke ( because of government debt )
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To whom does China, Russia or anyone they might become allied with owe this money?

If it's the West then that's very easily sorted by simply not paying.

Debt's a bit like intellectual property - it only exists if both parties agree it exists. As soon as one decides it doesn't well what's the other really going to do about it?

The thread's about Ukraine but I'm seeing that as the first undeniable and highly visible step to something far bigger. Noting that plenty of much smaller steps have already been taken quietly over an extended period, it's just that it has now come to the point where it's necessary to start doing the things that are more obvious.

Russia and China have apparently just done a deal for 100 million tonnes of coal according to media reports so add that to the Russia - China gas pipeline, and it seems there's another one now to be built as well, and there's a commodities alliance forming there. :2twocents
 
sptrawler said:
Money is nothing, it is an agreement between countries that they will honour their obligations, once that agreement between countries fails, the currency is worth jack $hit.
You go to China and stay in a hotel, what if they say we don't accept $AU.
Government debt, who do they owe it to?
The whole system works on trust and that is what is being tested at the moment IMO.
The West has not been in such a precarious position for a long time.
It is going to be very interesting to see how it all pans out. You may find that China and Russia form a common currency and demand it be the reserve rather than the US.
Who knows
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they were on one stage planning a BRICS common currency but some members have come on tough times ( South Africa and Brazil )

do you really want to be the reserve currency while the mega-bankers keep on avoiding jail ( that i believe was the idea of the BRICS common currency , so member nations could still adjust their own currency against the larger world markets )

but yes that trust thingy is getting a real bashing
 
Putin is a very smart "war chess" player (as Trump alluded too already).. he has the West/NATO where he wants at his mercy & with the huge support of China & many other countries that Russia trades with such as many African nations, India, Pakistan, Brazil etc. Sanctions by the West won't impact Russia whatsoever perhaps only minimal if anything.

I recall reading that Putin has made a huge gas deal with China just this past week worth $30B if I'm not mistaken..
 
Smurf1976 said:
Russia has the world's largest reserves of gas, second largest reserves of coal and third largest reserves of iron ore.

What does China need that they presently buy from another country who they've promised to bring economic suffering and misery to? Well that would be gas, coal and iron ore.

Russia also has an assortment of other minerals that China needs to import.

Australia take note. :2twocents
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What does China need to sell though,

And is russia a big enough market to offset USA, UK, Canada, France, Germany, etc etc.

if China wanted to stop buying LNG from Australia and USA, we could send it to Europe, but where is China going to send all their doodads,
 
China has been hoping to build sufficient domestic demand such that it would no longer need to rely on the US consumer. Not too sure how far along they are but this has been in the works since the Trump trade tariffs.
Furthermore, their recent movements in monetary policy have been accommodative and will probably remain so given concerns over real estate failures and their relatively high interest rates (c.f. global standards).

I think they'll be able to create some domestic demand if the West were completely blocked
 
More developments. Ukrainian President snubbed by Putin. NOTAM issued by Russia along North East Ukrainian airspace, closure to all civil aviation. France now asking citizens to leave Ukraine immediately.

 

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