Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

War threat in Ukraine

I wonder whether any western intelligence agencies are planning to knock off Vlad?
Hopefully his early demise is arranged by someone inside his own government, like the 20 July Plot / “Operation Valkyrie”, but hopefully this attempt succeeds.

 
does Australian import wheat
Not as a bulk commodity so far as I'm aware, any imports would be indirect in the form of processed foods etc.

Australia exports ~70% of the wheat crop, major buyers being Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, China, Korea, Japan, India, New Zealand and various Middle East countries.

This map shows where it's grown in Australia: https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Australia/Australia_Wheat.jpg

From a financial perspective a higher price is obviously good for Australia and Australian farmers but there's humanitarian aspect that whilst Japan or the Middle East countries can no doubt pay the price, somewhere like India or Vietnam plausibly doesn't have the money.
 
What happens if Russian oil and gas exports are stopped ?
Some figures to answer that:

World oil consumption = almost exactly 100 million barrels per day. A convenient round number but it's the actual figure not a rounded one.

Russia oil production = 10.8 million barrels per day with 7.5 million barrels being exported and the other 3.3 million used within the country.

So Russian oil exports supply 7.75% of worldwide consumption excluding Russia itself.

For gas, first a technical point that LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) is chemically the same as pipeline natural gas but for practical logistical purposes is a separate product. Gas taken from the ground is only turned into LNG if the intent is to move it by ship or road tanker with the majority of gas globally simply being moved, as gas not liquid, through pipelines directly to consumers. LNG is stored at or below -161 degrees C so whilst chemically the same, it's a different thing in a production sense.

To replace EU imports of Russian gas delivered by pipeline would add almost exactly one third to global LNG consumption.

Also Russia accounts for 8% of global LNG supply at present meaning that non-Russian producers would need to increase their LNG production by 45% to replace all Russian exports by pipeline and LNG. Either that or someone else delivers gas by pipeline to Europe.

Noting that many countries are isolated from world gas markets. For example New Zealand is self-contained, having production and consumption but no import or export indeed it has no physical means to import or export gas. Many other countries are like that, they have a gas industry but it's an isolated one, there's no physical ability to import or export. That results in the Russian gas situation being far more significant in terms of those countries which do have import / export facilities, the "heavy lifting" has to be done by only those countries. Someone turning down their heating in a country with an isolated gas market isn't helping at all despite their good intentions. :2twocents
 
Not as a bulk commodity so far as I'm aware, any imports would be indirect in the form of processed foods etc.

Australia exports ~70% of the wheat crop, major buyers being Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, China, Korea, Japan, India, New Zealand and various Middle East countries.

This map shows where it's grown in Australia: https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Australia/Australia_Wheat.jpg

From a financial perspective a higher price is obviously good for Australia and Australian farmers but there's humanitarian aspect that whilst Japan or the Middle East countries can no doubt pay the price, somewhere like India or Vietnam plausibly doesn't have the money
Hopefully his early demise is arranged by someone inside his own government, like the 20 July Plot / “Operation Valkyrie”, but hopefully this attempt succeeds.

Do you think anyone within his own government has the balls to organise his assassination? They all seem very intimated by him.
 
Before one formulates a solution to a problem, it is important to actually understand the problem.

The director isn't necessarily the script writer!

In the event that proves to be the case in the current situation, removal of the director will be naught more than a minor interruption ( whilst a new director is appointed).

The show will still go on!
 
Do you think anyone within his own government has the balls to organise his assassination? They all seem very intimated by him.
Hopefully if he continues on the path of getting more and more crazy some one will, you don’t have to feel intimidated once a person is dead.
 
Do you think anyone within his own government has the balls to organise his assassination? They all seem very intimated by him.
I'm perhaps not using the correct terms here but do some reading on how narcissists operate.

Putin will almost certainly have "broken" everyone under him such that they're incapable of properly functioning and will see themselves as having no option other than to stick with him.

In short that's what they do. Cripple everyone under them mentally and, in the event someone refuses to go along with it, that person is "removed". Same in any context - dictators, parents, employers, anyone who goes down that track of abusive exploitation.

I'm probably not using the right terms there but that's my understanding of the basics. Destroy those under you to the point they're obedient yes men. :2twocents
 
I'm probably not using the right terms there but that's my understanding of the basics. Destroy those under you to the point they're obedient yes men. :2twocents
Soon after, in November 2013, Jang's senior aides Ri Ryong-ha and Jang Su-gil were executed.[31][32] Ri was reportedly accused of abusing his authority, while Jang Su-gil was found guilty of trying to organize a new faction and rejecting the system.[33][34]
 
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Declaration of war’

Mr Putin raged that Russia “will not forget” external support for Ukraine - and warned he sees sanctions as a “declaration of war”

Mr Putin said there would be “colossal and catastrophic consequences not only for Europe but also the whole world” if foreign powers attempt to establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine.

London in the firing line

Mr Putin’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned, “Russia will not forget Britain’s desire to co-operate with ultranationalist forces in Ukraine and the supply of British weapons to the Kyiv regime.

“The sanctions hysteria in which London plays one of the leading, if not the main, roles, leaves us no choice but to take proportionately tough retaliatory measures.

“London has made a final choice of open confrontation with Russia.”

*Excerpt from my above link provided
 
Potential WW3 looming ? how will NATO/US alliance stop Russia ??
this really worries/upsets me... those poor people suffering terribly in Ukraine it seems only going to get much worse :(
 
Potential WW3 looming ? how will NATO/US alliance stop Russia ??
this really worries/upsets me... those poor people suffering terribly in Ukraine it seems only going to get much worse :(
Europe should up the ante. Gutless. Now is the perfect opportunity.
 


Fair criticism, but I don't think any war has been run 100% according to plan or as intended...

The reality is that the Russians continue to capture more Ukranian territory on a daily basis, which will only serve to eliminate the logistical issues highlighted in the video.
The Western response is approaching an asymptote - sanctions and equipment supplies can only go so far.

Here's an alternative viewpoint for the war (first 2mins):

 
Fair criticism, but I don't think any war has been run 100% according to plan or as intended...

The reality is that the Russians continue to capture more Ukranian territory on a daily basis, which will only serve to eliminate the logistical issues highlighted in the video.
The Western response is approaching an asymptote - sanctions and equipment supplies can only go so far.

Here's an alternative viewpoint for the war (first 2mins):


That’s generally how “Wars of attrition” work, but I wonder if the Ukrainians can keep their European supply line open maybe they can wear down the Russian, it’s also just a matter of how much Russia loses between now and then, and in the on going occupation and insurgency whether any “Victory” they claim is a pyrrhic victory or not.
 
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