Volume-Price-Patterns-Context & Catalysts - Example Charts & Analysis

[scholesy]

Hi tech/a, great thred! What are your interpretaton for the charts on the stocks NCZ, RCL and ACF?

 

[tech/a]

Have a go at reading them
Post here and then Ill comment.
Other wise you learn nothing!!!

 

[just_jay]

Firstly what are you scanning for
What is your criteria??

!

I generally do a massive scan once a month (D/W timeframe) on the major indices (Aus, US, UK and Nikkei). That's like a good 2000-3000 charts. I then pick out/ flag the ones that are trending up at all time highs or near all time highs, some that are ranging, and others that are at major S/R. I reject those that have peaks/ troughs of more than 15%. I like a smoothish equity curve.

This usually brings the list down to 300-400 charts, which I then go through every 2-3 days and narrow it down to 50-100 charts. I used to look for breakout of ranges or pushes through resistance on higher volume, or a close over my defined EMA on strong volume after a retracement. I then eyeball these 50-100 charts everyday, and if the general market sentiment is ideal (I have a bunch of rules I defined), then I take the trade if it presents itself.

Now, with the application of VSA, I am looking at the aforementioned 300-400 charts, and I look for abnormal volume (either very high, high or low), the spread of the candle (how wide and where it closed) and where the action is taking place. It can take me a few mins to work out whether there is accumulation or distribution from the market professionals. It takes longer if there are a lot of very high volume candles and usually I reject these because I get confused. That's the general idea of how I manage my watchlist.

I'll try and be more discerning when I do my bi-weekly scans and include an additional criteria for making the final watchlist. And no. I havent worked out what it is yet. I'll figure it out once I start looking at more charts and reviewing the mark ups I've made on the charts. Many thanks for your perspective.

 

[bngood]

Here is another one that I think fits the criteria.
IMC. It will be interesting to see if it respects the support line.
I have always thought that the best indicators are ones that lots of people are using so that lots of people respect them. I guess volume indicates lots of people.

Is this system used to buy and sell or do you still stick to your usual buy/sell plan and just use this to confirm?

 

[bngood]

Here is the latest NAN. It broke out above the box and has closed above it for 2 days.
It has already tested the box but I am not sure if it has to test and hold above the box.

 

[tech/a]

Bngood
You have bought up some vital questions
Both general and specific.
I’ll be able to spend the nesessary time to
Answer later in the day

 

[tech/a]

Ive answered in the main thread as this is for Charts and examples.

 

[tech/a]

Here is the latest NAN. It broke out above the box and has closed above it for 2 days.
It has already tested the box but I am not sure if it has to test and hold above the box.
View attachment 88371

NAN is certainly conforming to support within the V/C bar zone.
But the lack of volume is currently indicating a continuation of ranging.
I read this as a test of the recent high.
Of course a thrust through the high on volume will change the chart scape.

We must also look at the chart in context


IMC is similar but with its own twist

 

[tech/a]

As an Exercise


Im trading this what would you be doing
given the charting analysis.
It was originally in my watchlist for the pattern
after picking up the V/Bar.
The very low volume caught my eye in the retracement
of the V/C bar that pretty well ALWAYS happens and again
in the second pattern (Relative to the volume in the Bars
immediately before them).

 

[Country Lad]

As an Exercise........
........what would you be doing given the charting analysis.

tech, you may remember having lunch at our place in Cairns many years ago where you tried to convince me I am eminently suited to go deeper into the technicalities of charting. Well I tried, and it was all too hard and complicated so I have stuck to the very simple system I have explained elsewhere here.

As you have said before, to each his own.

What have I done with this one? Buying it now & then as it breaks at these points along with strong momentum and some other indicators.

Sorry, not meaning to hijack your thread

 

[tech/a]

Nothing wrong with Point and Figure
When you get a chart like the one you
Have attached it’s very simple

Great for breakouts
But try to read anything else
And it’s of little value

Yes I do remember that drink
To far between my friend!

 

[Country Lad]

But try to read anything else
And it’s of little value

No, no there is far more to P&F than just breakouts but that is another topic for another day.

 

[bngood]

As an Exercise


Im trading this what would you be doing
given the charting analysis.
It was originally in my watchlist for the pattern
after picking up the V/Bar.
The very low volume caught my eye in the retracement
of the V/C bar that pretty well ALWAYS happens and again
in the second pattern (Relative to the volume in the Bars
immediately before them).

View attachment 88377

What is it tech/a?

I'm not good/familiar enough at the technique to analyse it.

 

[lindsayf]

As an Exercise


Im trading this what would you be doing
given the charting analysis.
It was originally in my watchlist for the pattern
after picking up the V/Bar.
The very low volume caught my eye in the retracement
of the V/C bar that pretty well ALWAYS happens and again
in the second pattern (Relative to the volume in the Bars
immediately before them).

View attachment 88377

I’m thinking you might be thinking of pyramiding.
You could move your stop on the original buy to underneath the new vcb?

 

[tech/a]

I’m thinking you might be thinking of pyramiding.
You could move your stop on the original buy to underneath the new vcb?

Well done having a go.
While I could do that I would be giving back too much open profit.
There are some characteristics in this move not seen in the 3 prior forward moves.
Subtle but there.

This is what I'm going to do.

 

[tech/a]

A couple more very different each



Catalyst
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/rva.asx-2A1091736/

 

[just_jay]

NEA
Prior to reading announcement on 10/07 - Volume on last 4 bars higher than avg, and price is ranging. Due to price being at all time highs, I am thinking that this is distributing now rather than sellers being absorbed.
After reading the announcement - I am thinking accumulation now, in preparation for the FY2018 results on 22 August.

RVA
So price is being suppressed during accumulation. In such an example, would you buy at end of day on the 16/07 and set S/L at 19-20c, or wait to see how price reacts the day after?

 

[tech/a]

Another worth looking at

Joel
RVA is far to sparsely traded for me
NEA is in accumulation I think.

 

[just_jay]

Another worth looking at

View attachment 88424

tech, you drew the trading range s/r box based on the vcb on 02/07, and not the 29/06, where volume was extreme. Why's that?

 

[tech/a]

Error
Thanks for pointing that out
I’ll alter the chart.