VIL - Verus Investments

[angk43]

if you have a spare minute in your day , have a read of Metgasco MEL reports of there drilling for gas and how they reported there find. VIL, very similar to EGO, LKO etc, where there all testing for something and dragging it out (praying) something happens while they sleep and in the morning everything will be fine. Either commercial gas flows up the hole or it doesn't. goodluck with this one.

Ps, was at a conference 2 weeks ago and some bloke was ramping this stock and BCC up, 2 days later the VIL price spiked.

 

[banska bystrica]

Oil and gas testing takes weeks/months....sometimes years. I see this well as a developmental well from which the JV partners will learn much from. Traders who paid higher prices have been burnt but O&G companies don't operate for short term traders.
Look at AZZ's Yellow Rose prospect in Texas. Took months to test and get to flow commercially. Traders burnt......long term holders rewarded. Same will happen here IMO.
I'm free carried in both heads and options. Happy to see how this plays out.

 

[jetblack]

This is not a complicated structure. It's got high permeability and porosity (unlike wells drilling into Austin Chalks and Eagelford shale which require fraccing and horizontals). This well, FP#1, flowed gas and condensates to surface unaided through a 6/64 choke. Sounds pretty impressive to me.

Not wishing to cross pollenate a thread, I know it is your opinion, but maybe your opinion needs a bit of freshening up regarding Eagleford shale and horizontal fracing.

 

[banska bystrica]

Extracting oil and gas out of Lower Miocene sandstone is a lot simpler than extracting out of Austin Chalk and Eagleford shale. Just look at the problems encountered in ADI's Kennedy well and AZZ's Yellow Rose play in Texas.
I stand by my opinion.

 

[condog]

Banksa I agree

Having said that the Eagleford AMI JVP's have more certain upside but slower due to horizontal fraccing times and expenses.

If GGP manage to tap this keg for gas, oil or condensate over multiple wells its a company maker...

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Price back on the way up so far today, rising $0.006 on 45T volume. I wonder if buyers are anticipating an announcement tonight. GGP isn't experiencing the same increase in price.

 

[Tommo_Aus]

Money moving to VIL from OBJ/SSN who aren't having the best of days. Probably some gearing for a weekend hold.

 

[rabbit59]

Money moving to VIL from OBJ/SSN who aren't having the best of days. Probably some gearing for a weekend hold.

classic... tommo i was in the midst of writing the exact same post hope for an announcement early week... i think there is still alot of antisipation, and so there should be... i still free carry some VIL also topped up with some more to free carry just this week, so HOPE is still the main word i will use.... yet no loss is always a better feel behind the word itself.......

all the best to all holders.....

 

[pilots]

It appears pilot for some time youve only been active in VIL, AZZ and GDN... I think your invlvement in GDN explains your attitude towards VIL....GDN have been belted around with , what shall we say, lots of hope and little results for some time.... hopefully thats changing now......So if its your GDN experience causing this negativity toward VIL , i fully understand where your coming from...

Your probably right to be very cautios after that fiasco.....and there are similarities, but that does not mean its identical....and with the involvement, and track record of GGP....i place a lot of "faith" in GGP to be being honest here.....

GGP now have a reputation that will deliver finance and equity that they need to uphold, and misleading investors over a long period of time would be seriously counter productive to what they are doing eleswhere...., i cant see GGP risking everything they have so far over a 20% interest in FP..Especially especially, especially if they had any incling it was a duster.

You see GGP could comfortably walk away from this well and go for FP#2 or even walk away comfortably from FP alltogether...but they have not and they have not ceased testing for obvious reasons...becasue they see low cost near term significant upside in their FP project.... irrespective of whether its fp#1 or fp#3

rest assured with whats on offer here they wont run away in a hurry

Low cost near term significnat upside....
Low transport and infrastructure costs...
Geographically good area
Politically stable
Safe for workers - ie no terrorism or abductions
Onshore - so low costs
Low tax
Proven prolific dome
and the list goes on....

there are a lot of reasons to explore this very seriously, rather then walk awya and call it a duster....

You have missed CAZ, I got that one right, GDN I made a killing on the first well, never had any on the second well, CVI you know what happened on that one. AZZ got HALF OF OUR SUPER at 5c 5.5c 6c, so we at happy with that.
look at GDN wells, they flowed at 3.3 mil a day, they hold 100% of the well, have they come on line yet???. VIL only hold 50% of the well with a flow rate of 1.8, come one are you for real, do you real think it will ever come on line.
I told you that if you have not got good info under ten days to get out, well times up, get out.

 

[condog]

You have missed CAZ, I got that one right, GDN I made a killing on the first well, never had any on the second well, CVI you know what happened on that one. AZZ got HALF OF OUR SUPER at 5c 5.5c 6c, so we at happy with that.
look at GDN wells, they flowed at 3.3 mil a day, they hold 100% of the well, have they come on line yet???. VIL only hold 50% of the well with a flow rate of 1.8, come one are you for real, do you real think it will ever come on line.
I told you that if you have not got good info under ten days to get out, well times up, get out.

Pilots clearly your in need of a very long relaxing holiday, so please go have one.. go set some VIL price SMS alerts so you can relax dude...

 

[jetblack]

Extracting oil and gas out of Lower Miocene sandstone is a lot simpler than extracting out of Austin Chalk and Eagleford shale. Just look at the problems encountered in ADI's Kennedy well and AZZ's Yellow Rose play in Texas.
I stand by my opinion.

Appreciate that, but remember its the future not the past.

*insert wobbly music , and fade away *

 

[condog]

WTF dose that mean ....

If some of the negativitites bothered to get of their fennies and do some research and contact a few key personal they would have a very different perspective on this......

haaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaaa thats what you get for being lazy .......


PS a few drinks bring out the honesty in me....

 

[banska bystrica]

AZZ got HALF OF OUR SUPER at 5c 5.5c 6c, so we at happy with that.

Don't seem to recall you saying you bought AZZ at those prices when they were trading down there. It's all too easy to say what you did after the event.

 

[Solitus]

Yep, from this morning's announcement.

Flow rates for production of 0.5mcfg per day. Lower than I expected, but the fact that they're spending on permanent access roads etc. says they expect other results to be worth it for payback from testing, or very nearby wells.

Interesting to see where the price goes today.

The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP)
advises that the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at
Fausse Point has concluded initial production testing
operations from the lowest of several identified oil and
gas zones. A stabilised flow rate has been achieved and
it is expected that the well will commence production at
an approximate rate of 0.5 million cubic feet of gas per
day. This rate may be increased after an initial period of
production depending on the performance of the
well/reservoir.
Analysis of the testing results over the past several
weeks indicate that this lowest zone (8,370 feet) is
possibly connected to a much larger hydrocarbon
accumulation, and that this well has only just penetrated the edge of this larger accumulation. This zone that
is now being completed for production was not an original target of this well and hence represents a potential
new play type that will need to be carefully evaluated. The two primary target objectives of the well that were
intercepted at the shallower depths and were hydrocarbon bearing will be tested in due course.
By bringing this deep zone into commercial production, the Joint Venture will be able to generate early cash
flow, as well as have more time to evaluate all the data from this zone and the other zones located higher in
the well bore. Production infrastructure will now be built which includes permanent access roads, production
facilities and a short pipeline. It is expected that production will commence in approximately two months with
a total cost of approximately US$400,000. This production equipment will also be utilised in the testing of the
upper zones rather than flaring (see photo).
A decision on the timing of testing of the shallower zones will be influenced by the production performance of
the deeper zone. Once all available data has been fully evaluated, the Joint Venture will decide to either test
the shallower zones from within this well bore or drill a new well as soon as possible.

Hey Condog, have you read anything interesting lately? I know I have!

I must type more text. I must type more text. I must type more text.

 

[condog]

I temporarily got out this morning when i saw buy volumes drop. Took a fantastic profit, but will be back into both GGP and VIL once they stabilize.

I will be watching closely. They do not make a decision to go commercial on 500K flow of gas unless they fully expect extra wells and extra flow. Perhaps theyy are going to acid jet or hydro frac. Or perhaps they are confident it will clean up. Perhaps they are confident FP 2 will traget the sweet spot and perhaps they are confident if its stops or reduces flowing they will just go to another level...

Any which way they have more knowledge then us and GGP made the ultimate decision and had no reason to proceed unless very confident.

So whilst this week and month might be a bit rough the future still looks very bright for the entire project.

I think you will see the market over reacted. VILO must look very poor now IMO.

 

[nomore4s]

Pilots clearly your in need of a very long relaxing holiday, so please go have one.. go set some VIL price SMS alerts so you can relax dude...

Appreciate that, but remember its the future not the past.

*insert wobbly music , and fade away *

Don't seem to recall you saying you bought AZZ at those prices when they were trading down there. It's all too easy to say what you did after the event.

Hey Condog, have you read anything interesting lately? I know I have!

I must type more text. I must type more text. I must type more text.

Sitting back and enjoying the ride from now on. woohoooooooooo.......... check out the report in asx website.........sleepless night is over, i believe.....

Alright this thread has already been warned once by Joe.

These types of post will now be dealt with without any more warnings.

Let's keep the personal attacks out of it and try to keep this thread about analysis of VIL - both good & bad.
Please accept alternative views without resorting to childish attacks.

Also low content posts or posts that don't meet the 100 character rule and ramping posts will also incur infractions, let's all work to keep the content high in this thread for the benefit of all readers.

Thank you.

 

[condog]

with the sudden drop I transferred accross to GGP. Not as much upside, but still good and has cash flow... I will be back into VIL at some stage but wainting in GGP for now.

That way if its good i have exposure, if it doesnt improve GGP has exposure to bullseye, silverwood and fause point.

 

[sjx]

Hi Condog

I sold out to this morning at 5.5c with the view to re-enter in the future.

It got hammered big time this morning, and the 6c sp did not justify the result.. I am just glad that i got out with a clear profit of around 55%.. not the initial goal, but what can you do? I along with thousands of others expected better, and the best is still likely to come.. until then, there will be volatility

The further part of the announcement is very promising.. looks like they may have found something else. There are things to consider such as a possible capital raising which will dilute share price as well the possibility that Verus may sell their stake (as suggested by some of the people on HC..). While this may seem quite extreme I think it is a strong possibility.. at the end of the day they are an investment company.

I would like to re-evaluate VIL in 2-4 weeks time at minimum and after some further information becomes available to the market. I am now learning more towards GGP however.

I agree with you - VILO will most likely die.. only a few things will save it. 1. They update flow rates VERY SUBSTANTIALLY in 1-2 months (possible.. but i find it unlikely enough to save VILO). 2. they find oil somewhere in one of the zones or this 'new zone' they refer to in the announcement.. both events are possible but VIL needs to 12-13c before VILO can be ITM.

Plonked the whole lot into TLS for the ST for a quick gain... currently oversold and hurt by ex-div.

good luck all,

Regards

 

[wanlad1]

This post was posted by Nathan21(nick name) else where, I thought it would be a shame that you guys missed out on his analysis as has some pretty good points

When reading the announcement one needs to have an understanding of the oil and gas industry as well as business/corporate protocols. It is also extremely important to seperate FACT from FICTION.

Now what do we know as fact?

1. They have stabilised the flow rate at 0.5 mmcfd and have declared this as COMMERCIAL. THE flow rate MAY increase after an initial period (Comment - i would state there though this flow is nominal, it is positive that the operator has managed to STABILIZE this well and undergo further testing).

2. Analysis of testing indicates that this IS CONNECTED TO A MUCH LARGER HYDROCARBON ACCUMULATION and that THIS WELL HAS ONLY PENETRATED THE EDGE OF THE LARGER ACCUMULATION (Comment - this is the fact that many have lost in translation. That is, this is a ANOTHER WHOLE NEW SYSTEM THAT THEY HAVE STUMBLED UPON AND HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THEIR CURRENT PRIMARY TARGETS OF WHICH OIL AND GAS INDICATIONS WERE PROMINENT during drilling. This new system must be QUITE SUBSTANTIAL for the JV to temporarily forgo their current targets and try to understand).

3. More acreage obtained (Comment - it seems to me that the JV already knew about this new system when drilling and raced to acquire the new land to ESTIMATE THEIR STRUCTURE SIZE - indicated in their previous news release).

4. The reason of the JV declaring the lower zone commercial is twofold - to GENERATE EARLY CASHFLOW and TO HAVE MORE TIME TO EVALUATE ALL THE DATA FROM THIS ZONE AND OTHER ZONES HIGHER IN THE WELL BORE (Comment - business mentality kicks in and it is indeed the most prudent thing to do. Many traders and investors are crazy if they think the JV is going to forgo a possible NEW HYDROCARBON ACCUMULATION SYSTEM to test the higher zones when they can always drill another well a few feet away to access those primary target zones. This is why the JV is in the oil and gas game...the number of times that i have seen firms just STUMBLE ONTO NEW SYSTEMS and have a company maker is remarkable. Now i am not saying that they have something substantial but one must admit that the facts and their business moves indicate so. Do not be surprised if we get some form of resource delineation in the next couple of weeks that comes straight from left field).

5. The JV has now decided to build infrastructure including permanent access roads, production facilities and pipelines (Comment - it is quite apparent that the JV are gearing up for an extensive appraisal drilling program - even the most negative investor or traders is able to this clearly).

6. Once all data has been fully evaluated, JV will decide to either test the primary targets OR drill a new well ASAP (Comment - Now many feel that this will take all of two months and i must state that is quite inaccurate. The JV will be able to understand and intepret the formations from
the data and do straight risk/reward scenarios from the production performance of the deeper zone in a shorter period of time and will update their shareholders accordingly. History speaks for itself).

----------------------------------------------------

Now that we have seperated the FACT from FICTION, we can start having proper arguments based on the above. From what i have noticed from my exile, the following is obvious. There are currently;

1. Day traders and investors who bought low and sold high and are thinking of getting back in soon but evaluating their positions.

2. Traders and investors that have bought high (5-7 cents) and are holding.

3. Traders and investors who had NOT done their relevant due diligence and rather depend on other posters for information regarding possible investments. As such, once announcements are released, their inabilities and emotions are brought forward in the open in crazy sells and comments.

4. New investors and traders who are hoping for the next run but have not done any DD as yet.

5. New investors and savvy traders who have done their DD and are comfortable with their probably entry positions.

6. Negative rampers looking to come in at lower prices (this is perfectly understandable).

Now there may be other categorizations but i will leave it at that. In the next few weeks, you can be certain that we will be getting information and data regarding the JV's plans and any other updates the JV feels pertinent. There is also a chance that investors and traders might be caught out with a significant announcement. This is a possibility only cause the JV has already indicated that a NEW SYSTEM has been DISCOVERED and will NEED TO BE INTERPRETED.

Many in here might call this a ramp (i.e. positive) and it does not matter to me as i have only stated my opinion based on my experiences in investing in this industry. I am in disbelief (though not surprised that positive news such as these would cause a huge downturn). In my opinion, many have lost their train of thought and have evaluated the Fausse Point project's NPV and subsequent company's share price based on the flow rate. This is crystal clear. If the flow rate had been 1.8 mmcfd, the share price would be much higher...BUT one has forgotten that this flow rate is from a NEW FIND (and a possible linkage to a HUGE HYDROCARBON SYSTEM) and not the primary targets above.

Piercement Salt Domes are prolific producers (factually proven) but need to be understood well. The JV is being prudent in trying to obtain cashflow whilst testing the formations and area.

In relation to the VILO options, it is a risk but albeit should be a calculated one. 4 months is quite a long time to wait on a possible re-rating. The JV has a new find, oil and gas indications in their primary targets, commercial flow from a new find, build a whole new infrastructure and extended their acreage to a further 30% to estimate structure sizes...can anyone else join the dots?
-----------------------------------------------------------------

I thought I may as well include my thoughts on the chart at the same time.

 

[banska bystrica]

VIL is currently 4c which gives it a market cap of $25M. I am assuming VILO finishes out of the money in June.

$25M on what they have is expensive. They may end up producing much more gas and oil from future wells but right now they are producing 500,000 cfd of gas and VIL has 50%. That will barely cover administration expenses so a cap raising seems very likely at some stage.

I may look to re-enter VIL at an appropriate price.