VIL - Verus Investments

[condog]

Its crystal clear The context of that sentence can only mean one thing:

There have been several outstanding zones of interest across the three major formations (pause) with indications of hydrocarbons that need to be tested.

ie outstanding is the adjective used to describe the zone not the testing....

ie zone = better then good

I dont think we are so stupid that we need to be told there are several outstanding zones yet to be tested..its been made very clear there are 6 zones of interest and they are on the first.....thats obvious...so it acn only read on way....and whilst yes GGP need press release lessons, his language is not so poor that it could possibly be interpreted the way you are suggesting....

 

[jetblack]

Condog, as much as like your information. imo I think you and the rest of the punters are being played by the company.

Its all double speak, an empty bowser has outstanding hydrocarbon potential.

 

[vicb]

Looks like the punters are taking well to the ann.
Down 12.5% on latest ann.
I would say that one line was enough to spook the punters

"Production testing to date of this first zone of interest has resulted
in inconsistent flow rates of gas"

 

[condog]

Irrespective of washt you think of VIL , GGP are on a winner elsewhere and have some substantial credibility and need / desire to keep that credibility....

Go read there announcments from the fantastically successful bullseye from jan 09 - july 09....you will see a very familiar theme.....

Personally i think this announcment contains a lot of hints, including one that says " have some damn patience"

 

[subasurf]

Couldn't agree more condog.
People need to treat this stock as a longer term investment than most people are doing.

 

[tunrida]

Couldn't agree more condog.
People need to treat this stock as a longer term investment than most people are doing.

definately not an investment subasurf - highly speculative for mine.

as for GGP condog, their financials indicate a very sick puppy, appear to need much good news to help raise more loot.

 

[TheAbyss]

definately not an investment subasurf - highly speculative for mine.

as for GGP condog, their financials indicate a very sick puppy, appear to need much good news to help raise more loot.

Well said and not before time. Investors? Speculators at best. Nothing wrong with that but when members of this forum are venturing opinions on investments and dividends in this end of the market that is a bit rich.

Have bought and sold vil and ggp and happy with profits banked but they are low end speculation with minor percentages of my capital at risk.

Good luck to all however be wary and make sure you have a chair when the music stops (yes Kennas, i stole that line from you mate).

 

[condog]

IMO we now know we are dealing with gas and condensate from this zone....

The statement about "determining the required infrastructure" is pretty certain and .....you have to ask yourself if its just a matter of yes or no...they already know all existing pipeline requirements for dry gas.... so this statement IMO is referrring to the fact they are weighing up one of two things....

Seperator and condensate storage requirements

or Pipeline size....they are using this zone and IMO know its commercial, so are getting as much data to estimate top zones and other wells to establish required pipeline size and possible seperators / storage for condensate....

There is no chance they will try to operate multiple zones fromt he one well, they have already stated that will not happen multiple times....its just too much risk...

The fact they havent yet stabilized flow rates also indicates IMO they are dealing with condensate in reasonable volumes..... and are still trying to determine appropriate choke sizes to go either full dry, wet or both...

They have mentioned stabilising the flow by end of week and releasing the data as long as more time is not needed.....I wouldnt bet each way......on when, but thats also a positive in that they are still playing with multiple chokes for a reason.....its worth while to do so...

Novices be warned high risk volatility with huge up or downside....

IMO - i will go on the record, but do not base anything on this.....
Im stating i think its commerical and right now the decision being made is whether to go for gas or both....... and pipeline size.... thats why they are taking so long.....they are trialing the different chokes and having relative sucess with condensate on some sizes and not others....

IMO They will attempt to stabilise by end of week, by making a decision to go either gas only or gas and condensate....then will fine tune it for a stabel flow based on that decision...

Again....DO NOT make decisions on this....this is only my opinion......it is not fact....

 

[condog]

Another major factor for me being confident of commerical is that even at a 6/64 choke with only 1.8mmcfd + 56 bo cond....= approf 200bopde = $2.8M net p.a. I am confident they will flow much more on a larger... and possible stimulation or small frac, maybe acid frac if needed...

The cost other then seperater, storage and few hundred K of piping have already been largely incurred.... 80+% of the cost has occered already..... so why on earth would two junior oilers pass up $2.8M net revenue stream or significantly better for the outlay of only an additional....

Especially when you consider they will then have the pipeline in place for FP#2 onwards.....

Hence the references to "required infrastructure"......

 

[pilots]

Sorry Condog, but the way I read that report is that the zone they are now testing is the ONLY zone of interest, and it looks to me that it is a DUSTER.

 

[swans05]

Pilots, was wondering when you'd pop up to put condogs comments down again, IMO you sold out at a great profit, and now just cant walk away because you have a gut feeling this stock will rise and rise.... u have no clue whatsoever to suggest this may be a duster....whats with your continuos put down of condogs comments... i will buy more stock today... as condog, thousands of others, and i look forward to having the last laugh with VIL..... Thought you were travelling for month, still cant let it go, IMO you havent left the computer, look froward to your comments after commercial is announced by friday..................

 

[pilots]

Pilots, was wondering when you'd pop up to put condogs comments down again, IMO you sold out at a great profit, and now just cant walk away because you have a gut feeling this stock will rise and rise.... u have no clue whatsoever to suggest this may be a duster....whats with your continuos put down of condogs comments... i will buy more stock today... as condog, thousands of others, and i look forward to having the last laugh with VIL..... Thought you were travelling for month, still cant let it go, IMO you havent left the computer, look froward to your comments after commercial is announced by friday..................

OK, Lets wait until Friday, I am NOT here to get at Condog, I am getting at VIL, and the ramp team, I see this all the time with the fly by nighters. You seem to forget that your ramping will allways hurt some one. I have NEVER held any VIL shares. Talk to you Friday.

 

[condog]

OK, Lets wait until Friday, I am NOT here to get at Condog, I am getting at VIL, and the ramp team, I see this all the time with the fly by nighters. You seem to forget that your ramping will allways hurt some one. I have NEVER held any VIL shares. Talk to you Friday.

I wouldnt bet on friday, its hopeful, but i rally dont care whether its this friday or the next as long as its done properly to maximiase result..... and minimise costs.....

In fact even if pilots is right and this is a duster which i doubt the reson i bought the stock is more certain then when i bought it , theres actually confirmed hydrocarbons and condensate on this side of the dome now...

Pilots why do you read it that way please explain in full... use quotes or highlighting to help me understand your thinking...

Also importantly pilots could you point me and other readers in here to a stock you have made lots of positive insightful contributions on, so that we may check your style out...ta...I think its important for us to veryify that this is not just a persistent attack on VIL for whatever reason...

 

[condog]

It appears pilot for some time youve only been active in VIL, AZZ and GDN... I think your invlvement in GDN explains your attitude towards VIL....GDN have been belted around with , what shall we say, lots of hope and little results for some time.... hopefully thats changing now......So if its your GDN experience causing this negativity toward VIL , i fully understand where your coming from...

Your probably right to be very cautios after that fiasco.....and there are similarities, but that does not mean its identical....and with the involvement, and track record of GGP....i place a lot of "faith" in GGP to be being honest here.....

GGP now have a reputation that will deliver finance and equity that they need to uphold, and misleading investors over a long period of time would be seriously counter productive to what they are doing eleswhere...., i cant see GGP risking everything they have so far over a 20% interest in FP..Especially especially, especially if they had any incling it was a duster.

You see GGP could comfortably walk away from this well and go for FP#2 or even walk away comfortably from FP alltogether...but they have not and they have not ceased testing for obvious reasons...becasue they see low cost near term significant upside in their FP project.... irrespective of whether its fp#1 or fp#3

rest assured with whats on offer here they wont run away in a hurry

Low cost near term significnat upside....
Low transport and infrastructure costs...
Geographically good area
Politically stable
Safe for workers - ie no terrorism or abductions
Onshore - so low costs
Low tax
Proven prolific dome
and the list goes on....

there are a lot of reasons to explore this very seriously, rather then walk awya and call it a duster....

 

[Agentm]

condog

there are hydrocarbons in abundance in the rock below in texas. but having hydrocarbons present is not enough, you have to have the right circumstances and the demonstration of the rock willing to flow to make a commercial success out of a well

just exploring is not a guarantee of success, neither is finding hydrocarbons present. what pilots is pointing out to you is that the less understanding you have of an announcement an its implications the easier it is for misinterpreting an announcement. and the better it is for the hype from a forum to override the implications of what is possibly not such a brilliant announcement.

you say your more confident now after the announcement than you were before..

condog.. you say this

"In fact even if pilots is right and this is a duster which i doubt the reson i bought the stock is more certain then when i bought it , theres actually confirmed hydrocarbons and condensate on this side of the dome now..."

condog.. what your failing to understand is that the presence of hydrocarbons in the region is not what the exploration is about, its about whether the rock can deliver up flow at commercial rates

my view is the same as vil.. this is from them themselves

"Production testing to date of this first zone of interest has resulted
in inconsistent flow rates of gas and condensate and testing will continue through this week as further information is obtained and assessments are made to determine the significance of this initial zone of interest."

its simply a case of them testing the zone off and getting as much data as they can, then moving on.. not very good result as we all know..

 

[woltage]

Sorry Condog, but the way I read that report is that the zone they are now testing is the ONLY zone of interest, and it looks to me that it is a DUSTER.

Quote from most recent announcement, text indicating to me that the current zone of interest isn't the only zone of interest are in bold

The Board of Golden Gate Petroleum Ltd (ASX:GGP) advises that the T.G.R. Land Company, Inc #1 well at Fausse Point is continuing testing of the initial ten foot perforated zone of interest in the lowermost of three identified hydrocarbon bearing formations. Production testing to date of this first zone of interest has resulted in inconsistent flow rates of gas and condensate and testing will continue through this week as further information is obtained and assessments are made to determine the significance of this initial zone of interest. The results obtained to date have provided further important information on the productivity of this initial lowermost zone and the potential of the other higher intervals of interest. Flow rates from this interval will be announced once a stabilised flow rate has been established which is expected to be later this week.

 

[banska bystrica]

Oil and gas flow tests sometimes take a few weeks, even months to optimize. AZZ took over three months to get the first well in their Yellow Rose project to flow commercially. ADI took years (ie. just about forever) to get Kennedy to flow commercially and all the shareholders got burnt in the meantime waiting and waiting and waiting some more.
VIL/GGP are drilling into Lower Miocene sandstone on the flank of a salt dome in onshore Louisiana. The area around the salt dome at Fausse Point has produced over 44 million barrels of oil.
This is not a complicated structure. It's got high permeability and porosity (unlike wells drilling into Austin Chalks and Eagelford shale which require fraccing and horizontals). This well, FP#1, flowed gas and condensates to surface unaided through a 6/64 choke. Sounds pretty impressive to me.

 

[Tommo_Aus]

Low volume so far today, appears most have sold/bought in previous days and now its the waiting game. Still some sellers meeting buyers prices, though it seems strange you'd wait until now to sell out. Who knows, maybe their financial situation has left them no other option.

So this zone being tested is one of six, covering just 10ft of the formation which is over 300ft. This gives an average of ~60ft for the other 5 zones to test. If the lowest zone is deemed commercial with just 10ft of pay then I wonder what it'll be like with the other zones, also considering higher zones are believed to be oil bearing.

 

[condog]

Well worth a read.....specifically take a look at middle paragraph on what is labeled page 16....see if it rings a few bells

http://www.slb.com/media/services/r...s05/win05/02_understanding_gas_condensate.pdf

 

[Donga]

So difficult to interpret the various announcements. On another share blog they have been dissecting every phrase with lots of O&G experienced input and still seems it won't be sorted until GGP either ann commercialisation of this zone or move on to the next. It does seem there is potential for Fausse Point to be a ripper.

Unless GGP have been having us on.

From days and hours pouring through lots of commentary I don't think this is the case, and would seem a matter of whether this section has enough stuff or whether they have to try the other zones.

Learnt a lot but so much more to learn and loving it