Views on detecting trends etc. for medium/long term investments

[FlyingFox]

Out of curiosity, I am interested in approaches people take to medium-long term trends etc in investing. I know there is a lot of indicies and measures that can be computed from market movements but I am interested as to whether people use indicators not derived from the market itself. e.g trends in media, population.

Thanks beforehand to any/all answers.

 

[sydboy007]

I think the problem is once you talk about the medium or long term then too many things can happen in between to make forecasts much use.

I remember reading about a bank offering a service for their high end traders that would take into account the number of positive / negative words in certain financial publications and overlay that on the more fundamental analysis. Supposedly they could get a better idea of the mood swings of the market for better timings on the buy / sell. For the life of me I can't remember which one it was though.

What are you trying to achieve? It nearly sounds like you want ride the momentum rather than invest for the long term?

 

[FlyingFox]

I think the problem is once you talk about the medium or long term then too many things can happen in between to make forecasts much use.

True. However forecast can be done at multiple multiple levels. e.g All commodities will go up in the next five years vs gold will go up in the next year vs ABC will go up in the next month.

I am interested in how people think about these various things.

I remember reading about a bank offering a service for their high end traders that would take into account the number of positive / negative words in certain financial publications and overlay that on the more fundamental analysis. Supposedly they could get a better idea of the mood swings of the market for better timings on the buy / sell. For the life of me I can't remember which one it was though.

Yeah, I have read some research about incorporating these in mathematical models etc. It's quite interesting, an example is the recent announcements by the fed etc. QE goes on, stocks go up. Any indication of QE stoping, stocks go down. Arguable that this has as much to do with the mood of investors as economics.

What are you trying to achieve? It nearly sounds like you want ride the momentum rather than invest for the long term?

Not trying to achieve anything. Just interested in how traders approach trading. It's arguable that most trading strategies are around momentum following. I more interested in why these moment changes occur.

 

[sinner]

I am interested as to whether people use indicators not derived from the market itself. e.g trends in media, population..

No.

 

[tech/a]

In my view

Sustained longterm meaningful trends develope from
Macro economic influences.
EG
GFC
.COM
GREAT DEPRESSION
CHINA GROWTH

or the lack of any macro economic events
will clear the way for sustained price movement.

ETC.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

In my view

Sustained longterm meaningful trends develope from
Macro economic influences.
EG
GFC
.COM
GREAT DEPRESSION
CHINA GROWTH

or the lack of any macro economic events
will clear the way for sustained price movement.

ETC.

thanks T.

You really should write a book.

gg

 

[tech/a]

thanks T.

You really should write a book.

gg

On?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

On?

On your view of the world you silly bastard, investing, trends, risk, 5%, stops, all the crap that the Radges of the world make a moolah out of.

I have collected all your posts on asf so when you cark it, I will publish it.

I would prefer you did so as I've made my moolah on dissecting your thoughts, and you would articulate it better, and it's your property, until you cark.

Even though you cannot spell, type or ever be a Queenslander.

gg

 

[tech/a]

On your view of the world you silly bastard, investing, trends, risk, 5%, stops, all the crap that the Radges of the world make a moolah out of.

I have collected all your posts on asf so when you cark it, I will publish it.

I would prefer you did so as I've made my moolah on dissecting your thoughts, and you would articulate it better, and it's your property, until you cark.

Even though you cannot spell, type or ever be a Queenslander.

gg

Pass

 

[FlyingFox]

In my view

Sustained longterm meaningful trends develope from
Macro economic influences.
EG
GFC
.COM
GREAT DEPRESSION
CHINA GROWTH

or the lack of any macro economic events
will clear the way for sustained price movement.

ETC.

Thanks. I have similar views.

If you don't mind me asking, Do trade on your perception of future trends or more on current market conditions etc?

P.S Shame about the book...

 

[tech/a]

Thanks. I have similar views.

If you don't mind me asking, Do trade on your perception of future trends or more on current market conditions etc?

P.S Shame about the book...

One eye looking around me the other looking forward.
Just trading index futures at the moment.
No portfolios for me since 2007
But some have done well.
Missed some obvious ones
Gold
Oil
AUD

But you Only need to get one right.

 

[FlyingFox]

But you Only need to get one right.

True. I know someone that had about USD 350-400K which they converted to AUD at 0.66.

 

[tech/a]

True. I know someone that had about USD 350-400K which they converted to AUD at 0.66.

Well done.

 

[notting]

True. I know someone that had about USD 350-400K which they converted to AUD at 0.66.

Now might be a good time to flip it.

 

[tech/a]

Now might be a good time to flip it.

You think?

 

[FlyingFox]

Now might be a good time to flip it.

True. Have been trying to get them to atleast have a look at options.

 

[notting]

You think?

Yeah. I was telling as many US friends as I could find to buy Ausi banks when Au was around 50 something US the AU banks around half of what they are now!! "You will get 10% dividends just for trying."
Most of the replies I got were angry "We don't have any f----ing money you dick, we're all screwed."
But I tried.

Now let me think a bit deeper or macro er.

Do I believe the FED is really going to stop printing?
Is Gold going to hold it's 61.8% retracement against the US$?
Is the retail, tourisim, manufacturing and housing sectors in Aus looking stronger?
Is the mining boooooom over?

If AU$ gets too much higher, not much point mining, retail, tourism, manufacturing etc is rooted, employment will tank, rates will be weakened and AU will have to weaken one way or another?
Otherwise AU$ will fall against strengthening US$ due to US economic momentum and less need for printing and the mining, retail, tourism, manufacturing and employment, will be OK. Gold will not be so trendy, for a while?

But if we break above 106.20 perhaps Gold might be the go!!

 

[FlyingFox]

Yeah. I was telling as many US friends as I could find to buy Ausi banks when Au was around 50 something US the AU banks around half of what they are now!! "You will get 10% dividends just for trying."
Most of the replies I got were angry "We don't have any f----ing money you dick, we're all screwed."
But I tried.

Now let me think a bit deeper or macro er.

Do I believe the FED is really going to stop printing?
Is Gold going to hold it's 61.8% retracement against the US$?
Is the retail, tourisim, manufacturing and housing sectors in Aus looking stronger?
Is the mining boooooom over?

If AU$ gets too much higher, not much point mining, retail, tourism, manufacturing etc is rooted, employment will tank, rates will be weakened and AU will have to weaken one way or another?
Otherwise AU$ will fall against strengthening US$ due to US economic momentum and less need for printing and the mining, retail, tourism, manufacturing and employment, will be OK. Gold will not be so trendy, for a while?

But if we break above 106.20 perhaps Gold might be the go!!

some macroer points indeed.

Personally I don't know if the Fed (or others eg japan) will stop printing? seems that all policies are centered around inflation and printing conveniently solves most of this.

 

[McLovin]

To many what ifs when trying to do anything approaching macro style long term investing. I could never satisfactorily position myself in any sort of macro position with a decent margin of safety. At the start of 2007, I thought that the Norweigan Krona would do the best of any currency because of Norway's rock solid economy, but I lacked the conviction to actually stump up the cash. That about sums up any sort of macro forecast I make.

The only macro theme I continue to believe in is that the world will not come crashing down and good companies will keep making money. If I ever needed proof of that, the GFC provided it.

As long as that constant remains constant, then it's far more rewarding (and easier) to pick individual investments bottom up, than top down.

 

[tech/a]

Like all things in life.
Everything is great while it works.
Until it doesn't !

Living in fear of what if's isn't
The way to go I agree.