Victorian Fires

MrBurns said:

Man and his family on TV saved by their cellar, steel door above them glowed red with the heat but they were ok. That's fact not opinion.
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more luck than anything, mate.

Agreed, there are bigger things going on in the world than a pissy internet argument over blame.

you know my position and i know yours.

sam76 said:

This is the type of nonsense that confuses and scares people.

Houses do not burn in three minutes.

The fastest know fire was in 1939 at a speed of 15km/h

Writing this stuff does not help people.

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15kmh is the speed of which the face of a fire travels at, the ember attack travels at the speed which the wind carries it. In this case 100kmh if not more, some homes had their roofs blown off by the wind!

OK2 said:

Perhaps you should speak to people who were in the middle of it. I am in a semi rural area not far from there. People were running from neighbours home to neighbours home because they could not out run the fire. Are you serious? One person said that it was like a dozen fighter planes coming through. It was so fast that there was no air support. I take it that you live in suburbia. A house that is burning from four sides on the outside implodes, the air is first sucked out of it as opposed to a house which burns from the inside outward looking for oxygen to fuel it. Do some research or talk to someone in the CFA, they will tell you what you dont want to know.

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I am an employee and have over 20 years experience fighting fires with the CFA

Perhaps you should calm down a bit before scaring other people with the nonsese you are writing.

sam76 said:

I am an employee and have over 20 years experience fighting fires with the CFA

Perhaps you should calm down a bit before scaring other people with the nonsese you are writing.

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Which division, I might know you?

sam76 said:

more luck than anything, mate.

Agreed, there are bigger things going on in the world than a pissy internet argument over blame.

you know my position and i know yours.

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Dont know about just luck they were comfortable enough down there to start drinking the wine (stupid thing to do in case they had to make a run for it)

OK2 said:

15kmh is the speed of which the face of a fire travels at, the ember attack travels at the speed which the wind carries it. In this case 100kmh if not more, some homes had their roofs blown off by the wind!

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Are you saying that spotting occurs 100km from the main front?

I hope not.

OK2 said:

Which division, I might know you?

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if you want to continue this conversation i suggest you pm me.

sam76 said:

I am an employee and have over 20 years experience fighting fires with the CFA

Perhaps you should calm down a bit before scaring other people with the nonsese you are writing.

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You would be aware that 6 homes were lost in Narre Warren before the CFA could arrive. The occupants of three of the homes did not even know that their homes were on fire. Is that also my imagination?

MrBurns said:

Dont know about just luck they were comfortable enough down there to start drinking the wine (stupid thing to do in case they had to make a run for it)

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no comment,

sam76 said:

Are you saying that spotting occurs 100km from the main front?

I hope not.

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If your car travels at 100kmh an ember will travel at the same speed, not distance!

OK2 said:

You would be aware that 6 homes were lost in Narre Warren before the CFA could arrive. The occupants of three of the homes did not even know that their homes were on fire. Is that also my imagination?

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Your point?

mate, go make yourself a cup of tea.

you've had a hard couple of days no doubt and i would hate for it all to come out here.

i'm not going to be answering anymore of your posts.

Pm me if you wish.

OK2 said:

If your car travels at 100kmh an ember will travel at the same speed, not distance!

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i won't be answering anymore of your posts - except this one.

hence why I asked for clarification from you.

Maybe the last few posts is indicative of the confusion and chaos that a fire storm brings. Maybe you are all correct, maybe in a fire as horrific as this one, every one of those scenarios occurs. We know that the CFS does make mistakes; that was one of the reasons why many people lost their lives in the Adelaide foothills a few years ago, and recently on Eyre Peninsula. Maybe those mistakes are almost inevitable in such circumstances. They do their best but that will never be good enough to prevent situations like this.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25027291-29277,00.html

Brumby says Police may need to review their 'stay and fight' policy.

son of baglimit said:

BUT THE TRUTH IS........WHEN ITS 40+C, WHEN THE WIND IS BLOWING ABOVE 30 KNOTS, WHEN ITS AS DRY AS ITS EVER BEEN (ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS WEEKS CONSTANT 40+C DAYS) THE RULE SHOULD BE.........

WALK AWAY, YOU CANNOT FIGHT THOSE CONDITIONS AT ALL (HENCE THE BRIGADES WALK AWAY TILL ITS SAFE) AND ONCE ITS COME AND GONE, AND ONLY THEN, RETURN AND CLEAN UP & REBUILD.

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Spot on mate. It was entirely predictable that this fire would be something else and that the rule book would not apply. We had three days in a row above 43 degrees with less than 5% humidity. Then we had the stinker above 46 degrees with hot northerly winds. I live about 50km from Kinglake (which is almost inner-city Melbourne) and the wind was howling from about 11am.

The ferocity of this fire was astounding. Marysville and Kinglake has been through countless fire seasons and both towns have 'evaporated' in the matter of minutes.

I am simply devastated by this. Whole Victorian families (including some that I know) have lost everything, including their lives. RIP to all the victims. I believe the Red Cross has opened a fire victim trust - please google it and donate if you have the capacity.

Unbelievable trauma with the bushfires. Already hit home to me with at least one family relative losing their home and all belongings in marysville and probably a few others in Kinglake and St Andrews. Thankfully no lives lost.

I'm sure many, many other people will be affected directly or indirectly.

I think when the CFA and everyone else has a chance to look at these fires it will be seen to be a huge jump in speed, ferocity and impact over anything else they have seen in the past 50 years. The 34 days without rain, the searing heat of a couple of weeks ago that took the last dregs of moisture out of the soil and finally the record heat and winds of Saturday seemed to have created firestorm conditions. In that sense the intense burning of oxygen creates an enormous draft which feeds the fire even further and accentuates the winds already happening. Check out the stories of the Dresden fire bombing.

I suspect that the fire plans were probably quite good but simply incapable of being effective in the extreme circumstances.

To the future?

1) I'd like to think that any rebuilding is done with some thought about protection from future fires. Unfortunately BOM is warning that that with rising global temperatures these extreme weather conditions will become more of the norm. We will have to deal with them differently to what has been done in the past.

2) I'm starting to be concerned about the state of our Insurance funds. Queensland in flood disaster mode; Victoria has lost hundreds of millions if not billions in property, lives, farms and community infrastructure and the stockmarket has melted. How solvent are the companies in these circumstances? We'll find out quick enough...

3) Given the above circumstances what are the chances that insurance companies will either decline to insure certain areas and/or increase premiums across the board to cover their situations. Again seems absolutely certain to me.

4) Finally what is the chance that Rudd will rejig his $42 billion package to reduce the amount given to all households and send the difference to the people and communities so far affected ? I think it would make far more sense socially and financially. Getting $900 rather than $950 and knowing we were part of the communities support for flood and bushfire sufferers would be a good look.

Hope that readers friends and families are coping and I'm sure they would appreciate calls and support.

Cheers

in hindsight those people had no chance....if they were to evacuate it would have to have been on Fri...or early Sat morning.....but where would they all go ???...the whole of Vic was at risk

was there a local cricket ground or open area devoid of trees ????
if I saw the predictions of high winds again....I would be asking the community to find a spot, described above....bring all the water there to protect the people and domestic animals.....and every able person to stay there to protect the people....and organise everyone out of their homes to the safe spot
as for buildings.....there was no chance....

agreed with another post ,, about people staying to protect property....under normal circumstances that might be ok....but 100kph winds is not normal.....and people should not be encouraged to stay....

this situation will occur many times before this season is over.......
brother lives in Albury....asked him yesterday what was his fire plan...he said stay in the house......when I spoke to him today...and suggested with 100kph winds like kinglake he would have no chance....he's decided he thinks an underground car park might help....??? he would be better off walking to the river ???? and sheltering there ??? or going to the local sports park 500 yards away....as per my idea at the beginning of this post.

my plan is to walk/run down to the river 500 metres away.....not use the car....but then I will probably drown anyway....not much of a swimmer....need a wollen blanket to cover self...
now wonder how those people will cope getting centrelink money if they have no identification ???????

CanOz said:

I'm not so sure i agree here. Fire is unpredictable at the best of times. If the g'ment mobilised the Army even time a 40+ degree day( or 6 ) happened then they would be on full standby every other day of summer.
CanOz

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Well, the g'ment HAS mobilised the Army. But AFTER the worst of the event (so far). That's the point.

Would it REALLY hurt to have an Emergency Evacuation Plan that includes using as many spare R.A.A.F. and Army Aviation aircraft as possible? Maybe even to the point of assisting in fire spotting and transporting rapid response fire crews to hot spots?

I agree it's probably not feasible to do for your average hot spell, but this was EXCEPTIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES and everyone knew it was beforehand!! The gummint made the mistake of thinking the few extra CFS resources they had set in place would be adequate. Again, they were proved sadly wrong.

The CFS have done a remarkable, brave job in the circumstances and given their resources. However, I remain convinced that Defence air support could well have saved a number of residents in the worst hit towns. They could have been safely evacuated in minutes by a squadron of BH's. Instead many perished in their cars - trying to escape heavily forrested areas, where there is often only one main road to escape on. What if that road is blocked by accidents, smoke or fallen trees? What then? Well, we now know.

I think if a squadron of BH's swooped in and over loudhailers ordered everyone left to get in and evacuate NOW, there might just be better success in moving those who tend to want to stay till the last minute.

I'm not wanting to blame anyone. It's too late for that now. I'm just offering what I believe is an additional under-utilised resource as a possibility for inclusion in a plan for future catastrophic fire events, which forecasters are predicting to become more common over time.


aj

Thing is, some will choose to stay in their house, and try to save things, if not are willing to perish with it. Some have decades of life in these houses, and will refuse to leave, even if the chances are dire. It is everything to them. It seems nonsensical, but unless you have been close to, or know people in that situation it's hard to understand the mindset.

Not to say of course, all in this situation chose to stay voluntarily.

The speed of a fire front advancing will double with every 10 degree increase in slope so that on a 20 degree slope, its speed is four times greater.


Spotting can occur up to 30 kilometres downwind from the fire front.

I agree with you Aussiejeff....in fact I was thinking myself, there is probably a demand for a private fire protection service....like the security people...

that people in high risk places could pay for,,,like insurance....in the event of fires...they would be airlifted out (if possible) or be able to call on a squad of people with all the equipment to help protect them.....
or for example....like my earlier post...people forced to congregate in a safe open space....and then be protected...or airlifted out of danger.........

maybe you have the contacts and experience to look at something like this....
hire the equipment from the defence forces....and have them on standby as needed....in this case we had at least 5 days notice.....
since this situation will happen again....vic, nsw and sa most drought affected areas
I can understand older people reluctant to leave their homes...and without their homes would not feel like starting again....wonder how many did not have insurance ???
could not think of anything worse than being burnt alive.....or does the smoke overcome them...and unconscious...and not feel a thing ???