Victorian Fires

kahuna1 said:

Strange ... that I raised all of this prior to you sharing you limited ... intellect again along with capacity for abuse.

To be called an idiot when raising the 150 year low rainfall ... humidity and high temperatures springs to mind.

If you read the 2003 paper ... or a few more modern ones or the Tathra 2018 fire investigation which most locals like me followed .. well .. you may learn.

I live in hope

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I called you an idiot for conflating.

Pull up any report on prior bushfires from the last 20 years and it will likely say the same thing. Not enough land management.

The problem is that it's costly. But I know that even basic things like fire trails were not maintained. Once it rains it will all be forgotten again till the next big fire.

That is a comprehensive report @Smurf, shame the Australian press don't run it, it would help a lot of people see the magnitude and causes.

moXJO said:

I called you an idiot for conflating.

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I will come back ... with a decent response, it may take a while.

I agree with points above, totally disagree and ... CONFLATE in your and the other gents view on some things.

moXJO said:

I called you an idiot for conflating.

Pull up any report on prior bushfires from the last 20 years and it will likely say the same thing. Not enough land management.

The problem is that it's costly. But I know that even basic things like fire trails were not maintained. Once it rains it will all be forgotten again till the next big fire.

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I read this morning from a member of the RFS that they hazard burnt 139 thousand hectares this year.More hazard reduction is constrained by finance,personnel and climate windows.I hope they make incentives for people to move from their bush yondaras.

Excellent analysis from the BBC on the scope of the current fires.
The explainer on bushfire hazard reduction from Greame Readorn also analyses the challenges of effectively managing fuel loads in a rapidly warming climate.

kahuna1 said:

I will come back ... with a decent response, it may take a while.

I agree with points above, totally disagree and ... CONFLATE in your and the other gents view on some things.

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Your argument was valid. It's hotter and more dry for longer. Ground cover is dry.
We have a more limited window to take precautionary action to lessen the effect.


If we can't even take basic measures for something as devastating, frequent and visable as a bushfire. Then I don't hold a lot of hope in adapting to a changing climate.
We already forgot every fire preceding this one.

Suggestions that have been posted on these fora in recent days that "Greenies" are to blame for insufficient hazard reduction burning are complete nonsense. The Murdoch press are flaming this fake news. It is as fake as claiming that Turnbull was going to "privatise medicare" or Shorten was going to introduce a "death tax".

This fake news claim is completely refuted by facts. I know from my conservation work that there is consensus among ecologists that many coastal ecological communities benefit from period burning at appropriate time intervals which iss recommended in the recovery plans of several endangered ecological communities as listed under NSW and Commonwealth legislation.

I am aware of the work the Nature Conservation Council of NSW have funded in researching and promoting fire stick land management, especially in northern NSW having chatted with one of the ecologists working on the program at the NCC annual conference three years ago.

I am also aware that the National Parks and Wildlife Service (NPWS) want to do more burning in my area, not just hazard reduction burning but also ecological burns but are hampered by lack of resources. Conservation groups have been warning of the massive loss of experienced fire management personnel that resulted from the government's forced round of redundancies from the NPWS only a few years ago. In fact, management of our national parks, including invasive species management, etc, is suffering because park rangers, including area managers in NSW are flat out half of the year on secondment fighting fires up and down the coast.

I am also aware that in NSW the RFS office responsible for assessing certain developments on bushfire prone land are continuing to allow inappropriate development on bushfire prone land under duress from the NSW state government. I am aware of one development in my local area that both the local council and the local RFS have been highly critical, scathing even, of the RFS development approval.

Greenie bashing as a diversion from the ideological hatred that many conservatives have towards, you know, looking after the environment that sustains life, instead of short-term and short-sighted exploitation, I hope to hell, ain't going to wash after this angry summer.

The false dichotomy of characterising sustainable environmental stewardship and nature conservation as a leftist/socialist is absurd and perverted.

As an active conservationist, it is my direct personal experience in my local area that in general conservationists, ecologists, the NPWS, the local RFS management and volunteer firies are in harmony over hazard reduction burning. The one thing we all have in common is a desire to see more resources allocated so that burns can be conducted at appropriate scales in appropriate conditions at appropriate intervals. Right now, because of a lack of resources, not enough cold burns are being done at ecologically appropriate scale and not frequently enough - not because of this mythical power that "greenies" apparently have to stop burns, but because of lack of government allocated resources.

One thing that will come of the fires will be a very large stimulus injection, it is sad that lives and property has been lost, but at least we are well positioned to inject stimulus into the local economies they will no doubt need it.
Hopefully it is well directed and the replacement infrastructure is not only better, but appropriate for the changing environment.

Strong leadership by Daniel Andrews on establishing a bushfire fund for Victorians affected by the disaster.

Couple of points
1) He asked Pat McNamara from the Nationals to chair the fund. He is from the NE region and chaired a similar fund previously

2) He stressed, very nicely, the need for money and not more food, clothes, toys whatever.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/daniel-andrews-victorian-bushfires-update/11842454

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-06/scott-morrison-bushfire-recovery-bill/11844096

Sounds as though plenty of money is going to be thrown at it, which is good, at least it is spending that helps Australians. IMO
Stimulus packages that are ill directed IMO, are worse than no stimulus package at all.
Just my opinion.

moXJO said:

We already forgot every fire preceding this one.

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Sadly ...with regret .... what fires !! fake news .... there never has been a fire.

Not much will change, a mix of changes need to occur. Some ... I strongly believe cannot be altered and must be accepted as a new reality. We cannot control a firestorm or fire tornado in a type 2 fire. We could over time stop the thing that has created this now very common post 2000 fire, but for the next 50 years likely forever, they will be a fact of life.

Cant run away from even a normal fire at 10km an hour ... type 2 ... 50 km jumps and wind at the front 250 km an hour flipping 10 ton fire trucks like matchsticks ...

We can mitigate and accept reality ... the new reality but even that, being realistic seem totally impossible even for a tiny subset around fires on the bigger climate issues. Any and all discussion of this topic is not allowed or accepted.Yep I conflate ... then again record dry, humidity and temps ignoring why they occurred.

I try an remain positive but even a 2c degree 2100 rise is virtually impossible to hope for. At Madrid as I said the world expert scientists, leaders in their fields came in mainly in the 4-6 degree rise and some, even higher.

Whilst annoying ... the UN IPPC guy, the worlds leading expert in Australia did an interview, Not so much about types or nature of fire but, well ... his comments were very restrained given Australias action at Madrid and woeful track record.

I do understand virtually no scientific type believe climate change is not real, not man made and a dire threat. Amazingly 33% of Americans dont believe in it. Much similar numbers here and more than normal amounts on sites such as this.

Here is the clip ..
There is some very good media coverage of what fires are and back-burning and management. Some not so good and some not even close to science. I have nothing to add to some very learned expert on all the topics.


Michael Mann is the leader of 50,000 or so climate and associated experts who consult to the UN.
This includes for the 2018 report 271 Nobel prize winners in various fields and that's about 50 or so from Astronomers to Biologists to Volcanologists and on and on.

The 2018 report was well ... dire in its numbers.
Some massive things were removed making the best case scenario by 2100 absurd. Main one is Arctic permafrost the Australia and Saudi Arabia and Canada and USA leading had removed from any estimates. .A release of 1.6 trillion tons of CO2 as the permafrost melts is occurring 70 years early and in fact the Tundra and Moss that covers it was on fire in Siberia and Canada in 2018 and 2019, which just below the surface frozen for a million years is the trapped for now CO2 plant and vegetable matter along with of course things like frozen perfectly preserved for 60,000 year mammoths.

Sadly, I agree with all you said other than my differences on fire management and post 200 with 10 out of 10 record high temps and low rainfall global years, fires without moisture invalidate most studies pre 2000 or even 2003. They just burn hotter and quicker and whilst they have occurred occasionally in various places, that in a single day Victoria added 200,000 hectares and NSW what appear close to 600,000 hectares with the Eden border fire at 140,000 and Mount Kosciuszko region two fires at well over 300,000 and the others adding 50k here and 75 k there, as you say all will be forgotten.

Fake news ... Donald Trump told me so !!

Yes I think there would have been a lot of monitoring going on, it will be interesting to see if it was organised, or random.
There was definitely too many fronts and new fires, for natural causes to have started them IMO
If they were deliberate, I certainly hope they find those behind the fires.

wayneL said:

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Fingers crossed mate

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news...t/news-story/4d0037f48df17bd1ba00ba9edb826fc8.
From the article:
A Reynella East man, 31, was arrested on Sunday morning, after police investigated two recent bushfires at Aldinga.

The fires were believed to have been started in scrubland at Aldinga Beach Rd and the Esplanade, on December 28 – a severe bushfire risk day.
Police charged the man with two counts of cause bushfire, acts to endanger life and fail to truly answer questions.

Also another man:
The 79-year-old is accused of lighting four bushfires from December 30, 2019 to January 4, 2020.
■ Monday 30 December 2019 adjacent to Catherine Gibson Way.
■ Thursday 2 January adjacent to Catherine Gibson Way
■ Saturday 4 January adjacent to First Street
■ Saturday 4 January adjacent on Eleventh Street

This sounds like a fair summation, by Victoria's former Fire Chief Craig Lapsley:
Victoria’s former fire chief Craig Lapsley said fire intensity had increased in the past two decades amid a changing climate and more extreme weather conditions and this current crisis was a "watershed" moment.
Mr Lapsley, who led the recovery after the 2009 Black Saturday fire, said the way state governments had managed the bush had changed in the past 70 years because of society’s conservation and environmental values.

“There’s obviously been a change in the logging industry. The bush is not being logged to the same extent it was," Mr Lapsley said. "There’s been a change in the amount of fuel ... more fuel levels and a changing climate and changing weather on top of that. These are things our values have demanded, but it has created the situation we are in now. We need to talk about how we manage."

In 2010, the Black Saturday bushfires royal commission recommended Victoria undertake at least 385,000 hectares of planned burning a year. Last year there were 74,000 hectares burned off. This year there were 130,000.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...r-hazard-reduction-burns-20200105-p53ozo.html

During the summer between 1974 and 1975, Australia experienced its worst bushfire season in 30 years. Approximately 15 per cent of Australia's physical land mass sustained extensive fire damage. This equates to roughly around 117 million ha.
New South Wales was badly affected with widespread damage to infrastructure, including communications, roads, railways and property fencing. There was also significant damage to the agriculture and horticulture industries, as famers lost crops and livestock to the fires. The areas affected included Cobar Shire, Balranald, Glendale and regions around the Lower Hunter. Three people lost their lives in New South Wales. The overall damage cost was estimated at approximately $5 million.

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https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-new-south-wales-1974/

Talking about short memories, I don't remember hearing about this one.

Strike Force Tronto, made up of detectives from the Financial Crimes Squad's Arson Unit, have been working closely with local police forces to catch arsonists.
Today the NSW Police confirmed 24 people had been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires.

Shocking figures released by Strike Force Tronto today also showed legal action had been taken against 47 people for allegedly discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land.
A further 53 people faced legal action for allegedly failing to comply with a total fire ban.
Police urge people to provide footage and images from phones, dashcam or other devices that show any of fires in their infancy, even if only from a distance.

tinhat said:

Suggestions that have been posted on these fora in recent days that "Greenies" are to blame for insufficient hazard reduction burning are complete nonsense.

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As per my comment, there's a problem with resourcing etc as you note. Many have realised that something's wrong but they've wrongly assumed what the problem is - blaming "greenies" when in fact it's due to lack of resourcing, in some cases excessive bureaucracy and so on but it's not Greens (as in the party) or environmentalists standing in the way primarily.

It's akin to the workers downing tools and some bystander blaming "unions" whilst being completely unaware that it was the management that ordered the stop work. The assumed likely cause cops the blame even though they had absolutely no involvement. Etc.

Meanwhile on a more serious note I see that police have charged 24, yes 24, people with arson offences in NSW relating to the fires. Also someone has been charged with arson in relation to the East Gippsland fires in Victoria and in separate incidents people have been charged with arson in SA and Tasmania.

I don't really know what to think there but the notion that there may have been some sort of co-ordinated activity going on has occurred to me. That's a bit "tin foil hat" I'll admit but if 24 have been charged well then it's a fair assumption that the number of actual arsonists was far higher given that the majority wouldn't be caught in practice. Either a lot of individuals all had the same idea or some group is trying to start a mega fire.

Conspiracy?

I don't really know what to think but if there's 24 been charged just in NSW, and people charged in several other states, well then the idea that some redneck group is involved doesn't seem impossible. No proof, it's just a theory, but it would seem at least possible there's a criminal element involved beyond individuals acting independently.

Always thought these were bad news round the house. Didn't know we exported th

The fires are finding fuel in Australia's eucalyptus forests, which many experts blame for feeding wildfires that have blazed through the hills of California and other places where eucalyptus trees — native to Australia but now found throughout the world — have spread as an invasive species.

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https://www.livescience.com/amp/40583-australia-wildfires-eucalyptus-trees-bushfires.html