Victorian Fires

[IFocus]

Have you got one of those early chainsaws that they used to wheel up to the trees?Incidentally I got a text from ING wanting to know if I wanted to make a claim (for the fires) .They must go thru postcodes that may be affected..Did not affect us.

Glad to hear you are safe

Dad built and used one in the 50's before chainsaws come along basically a circular saw on wheels coupled to a 4 stroke engine balanced some where in between he rebuilt it about 15 years ago (dont have a pic handy)and we all had a laugh as he wondered what the department of health and safety would say.

Strangely he never had a near death experience using it as difficult as it was but had two very near death experiences with his chain saws. Broken limbs coming down later hung up in other trees.

He always used to use McCulloch chainsaws heavy brute of a thing they were.

 

[moXJO]

Mo Xjo ///

as a shooter party person now revealed ...

DO you have doomsday prep site ?
As for your mate ...

Blowhard was a word used a lot. He made the one ... the Shooter part rep for Bega look sane. Impossible to do I thought as ours was a total NJ. When I went to vote at the local school I sadly admit the guy handing out how to votes I knew and, well he cornered me ... so alluding to knowing a fringe cult political party person who ... well ... is not thought of well is what it is.

He offered to let me meet the gent in question and amusingly you just brought up his relation who is even nuttier !!Sadly I had to listen to 10 minutes of seriously deluded conspiracy they rubbish as the line had stopped moving. Others in the line tried to pretend they had trodden on dog poo and cleaned their shoes.

I was agog at the rubbish he spewed, much like your postings.

Moral of the story is never to look one in the eyes ... let alone speak to them or listen to their dribble. A few kult sites down here for them Tanja and Kiah and other places where cults are the norm.



So do you plan for the end of the earth as a shooter and fishers party cult members ?

Do you prep for the end of the world ?

Is that what makes you so angry all the time ?

Or was it some other issue ?

I've met the man on numerous occasions.
And once again you are full of it.

Never been a hunter, shooter or Fisher. But if you are opposed I'll seriously take a look.
Perhaps point out some of their policies you dislike the most off the top of your head.

 

[IFocus]

Further to QF I grew up in the bush we never had power connected to our house until I was 15.

My nearest friend was 6 km away

To others there was no reduction burns in our area ever we had Jarrah trees right up to the back and front doors place or area wasn't threaten by fire.

If one started people could put it out.

Note the run off average in the period I am talking about pre 1975

Until there is a serious acceptance the climate is changing how can planning be carried out for adaption?

 

[Belli]

Some may find interesting the investment "climate" from a firm which has the main objective of making money for its clients.

https://www.blackrock.com/institutions/en-axj/insights/climate-change_en_AXJ

 

[Smurf1976]

As 150,000 more hectares ignited its ... the Greenies yet again.

If you dropped the political agenda and actually read the post to which you responded then you’d be aware that the “greenies” referred to are not the Greens party or even environmentalists for that matter but simply any bureaucratic process which obstructs real productive work for the sake of it.

Waving hands and screaming that you’ve got no solution to prevent a recurrence of this situation might get attention now but when the fires are out and everyone has time to think then it’s not going to get very far.

When faced with a problem most want solutions to it not political point scoring.

In this case solutions mean first getting the fires out and then doing what’s needed to avoid this happening again.

With respect to land management well in NSW it has been reported that there’s all of 10 people managing it. NSW is a pretty big place, it’s not some little island somewhere, and having individuals looking after an area larger than the state of Tasmania is stretching resources ridiculously thin.

There’s that lack of resources problem right there. It’s pretty hard to make decisions in a prompt and efficient manner when there’s stuff all people able to make them.

Can’t blame the Greens or Labor for that one though - NSW government is Liberal and not exactly short on cash so can’t say there’s no money either.

 

[Smurf1976]

Note the run off average in the period I am talking about pre 1975

The same pattern albeit with less severity had been seen elsewhere too, most notably Tasmania, which rules out local causes and points to much larger ones.

There’s a lesson in that though, a big one, and it has a lot of relevance to the fires.

There’s been the odd minor panic during that time but bottom line is that at no point did then taps run dry in Perth or the lights go out in Tasmania.

Rather, the Water Corporation (WA) and Hydro Tas have taken the pragmatic approach of doing what they need to do to adapt to changing circumstances. Plenty of things have been built or modified in doing that.

What they didn’t do is sit around in the dark telling people to not flush the toilet and blaming climate change for the situation. No, they got on with practical solutions that could actually be implemented.

That doesn’t make them climate change deniers, the opposite in fact, but it means they faced reality rather than running around screaming.

That’s the lesson which needs to be learned in all this. Do what’s needed so that we don’t have a repeat of this disaster rather than sitting around screaming that it’s all too hard.

 

[kahuna1]

Welcome back ....

If you dropped the political agenda

Sadly I dont have one.

With respect to land management well in NSW it has been reported that there’s all of 10 people managing it.

Your view agenda ... much like the shooter-party nutter ... Mxjo is about burning off just like the aborignals.

Any mention of low rain .
record low rain
record high temps
record low humidity.

Is to be ignored under your agenda.

I did read you link ... I listened with morbid fascination as the PM defended his climate policy and this despite active denial and sabotage of Madrid and 2 weeks prior to current events ... he was calling any discussion even about rain climate hysteria, much as you are.

I have methodically shared the current climate conditions, past ones and all ... disputed and ignored by you.

Its not climate change ... its CURRENT and RECENT rain and what it does to fire events. To get a catastrophic out of control event ... the fuel load on the ground actually doesn't play as bug a ole as you seem to think. Flames leap from tops of trees to the next ... a firestorm.

I didn't even try and discuss climate change other than the CURRENT ... rain and lack of it for 36 months.

PM Morrison actually spent over 2 minutes talking about Kyoto in relation to the USA and how Donald Trump was doing such a great job with the climate.

Whilst an aside, how delusional does one need to be to spend 2 minutes hours after 800,000 in total hectares in Australia just burnt .... claiming contrary to actions which contradict it totally he supports climate issues and then 2 minutes in total on the USA and its meeting of climate totals.

Trump much like our PM ... sadly ... I dont care what party ... is in, needs change.

2 minutes of his speech ...

defending this ?



As for Morrison ...


Or his closest advisor ... whom he mentioned he spoke to as he does every day ...
John Howard ... ex PM who lost his own seat ... He repeated this speech word for word ...

TODAY ..


That is being political which .. well I have not been but since after your nappy change I was accused of it .... may as well.

And yes it is helpful ... to highlight what a pathetic situation we are in with leadership like this.
Just replace him. Another Liberal ... or whatever.

 

[SirRumpole]

Any mention of low rain .
record low rain
record high temps
record low humidity.

Is to be ignored under your agenda.

No one is ignoring these stats, they are evident of the long term trend.

The point is that these stats have been piling up for years and politicians have ignored them because they are evidence of <shock horror> climate change which they don't want to admit exists.

But things could have been done when it did actually rain or conditions were otherwise favourable for hazard reduction. Whether these were political decisions not to do such measures or there were other reasons should be determined.

 

[kahuna1]

Oh really ?

On this topic and thread ...

Average rainfall ... Ignored.
Rainfall deficiency and at 50% ... ignored.
Humidity at 25% below normal ... ignored ...
Lowest 3 year rain total for vast parts of NSW and Victoria ... ignored ...
Temperature averages all time highs ... ignored ...
The 150 year lows rainfall total ... ignored
Maximum high temperature broken ... ignored
Maximum high temp with ultra low humidity and record low 12 month and 36 month rainfall .. Ignored.

Ignored in favor of the following

Scott Morrison ..... elaborated on his support for Trump climate policy ... as 800,000 hectares burn in a single day !!

and his identical climate policy and views to this man, a 2 minute admire Trump during his press conference on his climate stance and beliefs.

Its word for word !!

 

[kahuna1]

Someone asked smugly how it jumped 20 km ...

Others asked why I took exception to pushing burnoffs ... and why .. well dry conditions and so on made it idiotic along with geography and steep mountains that only the insane would Hazard reduce burn..

One picture ....
One picture only ....

Where are the flames ?

South of Eden at 3.12 am 5th Jan 2020

 

[moXJO]

Someone asked smugly how it jumped 20 km ...

Others asked why I took exception to pushing burnoffs ... and why .. well dry conditions and so on made it idiotic along with geography and steep mountains that only the insane would Hazard reduce burn..

One picture ....
One picture only ....

Where are the flames ?

South of Eden at 3.12 am 5th Jan 2020

Still clueless. But keep bleating.

Out of interest are you one of the hippies out of eden?

 

[kahuna1]

Still clueless. But keep bleating.

Out of interest are you one of the hippies out of eden?

No shooters party ... friends with the Milats just like you.

 

[Smurf1976]

Oh really ?

On this topic and thread ...

Average rainfall ... Ignored

They are not being ignored at all and that's the point you're missing.

Unless you are claiming to be God, or you seriously think that I or someone else here really is running the weather, well then we can't do anything at all about it.

At best we could get Snowy Hydro and/or Hydro Tas to give cloud seeding a shot, both organisations have run successful programs and are well regarded internationally for their expertise whilst using very different approaches to doing it, but reality is that you need clouds to be able to seed them and neither of those two would claim that it has any chance of being more than another thing that's a partial solution. Push it hard enough and you might get 30% more rain, that's about the limit of what has been achieved, but realistically it'll be 10% and then only over suitable areas. It might be worth looking at but it's a help not a complete fix.

Beyond that, well we can't do anything about it in the short to medium term that's clear. Cut CO2 emissions to literally zero tomorrow and further warming will still occur according to IPCC models. That doesn't mean that issue doesn't need fixing but it's not going to prevent fires within our lifetime.

Which leaves us with needing to look at practical means of avoiding a repeat of this disaster if that's the aim. Practical things which can actually be done in reality and that comes down to how we manage land, how we build things and where, how we respond to fires when they start, what sort of infrastructure we have in place either permanent or temporary and so on.

It's all a bit like someone being stranded in the middle of nowhere and arguing that there should be a train service. Well maybe their should but if there's no train actually running, and no tracks for it to run on, well then they'd be wise to look at buses, cars or any other road vehicle which can get them out of there or failing that a horse, bicycle or start walking. A train isn't coming so no point focusing on that idea.

 

[moXJO]

No shooters party ... friends with the Milats just like you.

You would be a resident of Belanglo if that were the case.

 

[kahuna1]

You would be a resident of Belanglo if that were the case.

I knew you were related.

Pity one picture of flames at treetops makes ... all the blah blah blah about aboriginal burn-off of fuel loads at ground level ... so stupid.

Hot ... dry ... makes them .. explode sadly.

Back to your prepper shows and reading your gun magazines for you.
I can smell something ... the other one must have posted ... again.

 

[Smurf1976]

Pity one picture of flames at treetops makes ... all the blah blah blah about aboriginal burn-off of fuel loads at ground level ... so stupid.

Perhaps consider how a crowning fire forms and spreads.

As for the weather data, well what can I say?

It's the middle of Summer and Adelaide today reached a maximum temperature of 16 degrees. Yes 16, not 46 or 36 but 16 and that was the maximum not the minimum.

Just because there's an overall drought, wet period, summer or whatever doesn't mean you can't have days or weeks when the weather's extremely different to the longer term pattern.

 

[chiff]

Glad to hear you are safe

Dad built and used one in the 50's before chainsaws come along basically a circular saw on wheels coupled to a 4 stroke engine balanced some where in between he rebuilt it about 15 years ago (dont have a pic handy)and we all had a laugh as he wondered what the department of health and safety would say.

Strangely he never had a near death experience using it as difficult as it was but had two very near death experiences with his chain saws. Broken limbs coming down later hung up in other trees.

He always used to use McCulloch chainsaws heavy brute of a thing they were.

I remember the Mcculloch...looked like a box with a bar coming out of it.

 

[qldfrog]

Note the last few paragraphshttps://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...wingello-kangaroo-valley/11842006?pfmredir=sm
Isnt it what every inhabitant 40y ago would have done.
I am happy he saved his house, and knowing he was properly prepared, not like some of the clowns you sometimes see on their roofs one beer in hand, in tongs and shorts waving a garden hose
I think it is actually inspirational, and even better that their ABC dared writing it

 

[basilio]

There is an excellent detailed explainer on the effectiveness of hazard reduction burning in The Guardian.
Well worth reading in full.

Explainer: how effective is bushfire hazard reduction on Australia's fires?
Claims of a Greens conspiracy to block hazard reduction has been rejected by bushfire experts

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...bushfire-hazard-reduction-on-australias-fires

 

[moXJO]

I knew you were related. Pity one picture of flames at treetops makes ... all the blah blah blah about aboriginal burn-off of fuel loads at ground level ... so stupid. Hot ... dry ... makes them .. explode sadly. .

I actually said that in extreme weather conditions that's what happens. In all your hysterics you probably missed it. I also said what hazard reductions were for. Perhaps you can ask fireman Sam or whoever you said you knew.

Mr Phil Cheney of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), who is generally regarded as one of Australia’s foremost experts on bushfire management, told the Committee that: there has been a shift from fire management by land management agencies to emergency response agencies The whole business of managing fires has shifted towards a more suppression oriented approach by the amalgamation of emergency services operations rather than putting the primary response back on the land manager and having the emergency service operations coordinate that response when it is needed. we see the community divided over fire management and the divide (especially between urban and rural communities) deepening. Familiar position-taking is occurring. On one side of the divide are some influential environmentalists and academics, supported by inner-city residents not threatened by bushfires, and not responsible for bushfire management. These people in general advocate a hands-off approach to land management, where ‘natural’ events like bushfires are allowed to run free. On the other side are rural people, fire fighters, foresters and land managers who are responsible for values threatened by bushfires. The latter tend to advocate an interventionist approach, where steps are taken to minimise risks before fires start, as well as having in place a wellequipped rapid-response fire fighting force. This divide is becoming institutionalised, and reflected in policy positions adopted by different agencies and political organisations. To add to the problem, responsibility for fire management is increasingly being taken out of the hands of land managers (who are trained to minimise threats and hazards) and placed in the hands of emergency services (people trained to respond to a disaster after it occurs).

2003 report into the bushfires won't seem to copy so I'll put it up in parts.

Here's the report for those interested. Same thing everyone was talking about: Land management was prominent.

http___www.aphref.aph.gov.au_house_committee_bushfires_inquiry_report_fullreport.pdf