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Victorian Fires

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Smurf1976 said:
Because I am factually correct.
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moXJO said:
If what you are doing is science, no wonder Australia is stuffed
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Average rainfall ... Ignored.
Rainfall deficiency and at 50% ... ignored.
Humidity at 25% below normal ... ignored ...
Lowest 3 year rain total for vast parts of NSW and Victoria ... ignored ...
Temperature averages all time highs ... ignored ...
The 150 year lows rainfall total ... ignored
Maximum high temperature broken ... ignored
Maximum high temp with ultra low humidity and record low 12 month and 36 month rainfall .. Ignored.


Smurf in your case you ignored ALL and ANY data as provided ... whether it was average ... or 150 year lows ... all are quite different in any normal persons universe. I have underlined them ... each are quite different but tell similar stories ...

So what was quoted .. and supported ... Nothing from MoXjo and another ...

Talked about flooding 2,581 km away in far north Qld ... from Victorian fires in Orbost .... accepted as relevant to something ...

When questioned ... a flash flood 450 km away from current burning regions on the 0ther side of the great dividing range was used to claim there was some window for managed burn-offs. A mere 100 mm of rain in a day, yep produces a local flash flood but ... well ... it was 450 km away.

Fire in July which took 90 days to put out ... and 44 days just to be be under control ... Ignored.

Yes ,,,, in my reality ... humidity .... rainfall when its non existent ... ultra high temperatures and fires burning out of control 150 km away from current ones in Victoria are actually relevant.

In some peoples world ... its their own reality.

I do prefer using source data ... and I did so, with links provided.
I got none back. Opinions ... dogma and well ... a planet which is not this one where religious beliefs suddenly have floods in regions where rain was 50% of normal on 1 year 2 year and three year measures. In fact actually 150 year low totals for 3 year periods.

I must read up on what fire fighters use to fight fires. I thought it was water.

Obviously not.
 
kahuna1 said:
Smurf in your case you ignored ALL and ANY data as provided ... whether it was average ... or 150 year lows ... all are quite different in any normal persons universe. I have underlined them ... each are quite different but tell similar stories ...
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For the very simple reason that a burnoff or other activity to reduce fire hazards does not take 3 years to undertake.

Just because rainfall was 50% below average over 3 years doesn't mean there was no period during that time when it did rain, the ground and accumulated debris became damp, the weather was cool and burning off could have been safely done.

Hence why considerable burning off was actually done. Because those doing it are looking at conditions on the day and forecast for the next few days, they're not looking at a 3 year total. As even a casual look at BOM data or even media reports will tell you, yes it has rained in Gippsland during the past 3 years. Less in total than average yes, but there have certainly been relatively wet periods during that time which produced conditions suitable for burning. Actual burnoffs wouldn't have been done if that wasn't the case - the authorities managing them aren't arsonists after all.

Same as someone who trades shares on a short term chart isn't going to go long just because there's been a bull market for the past few years. No, they're going to focus on what the chart tells them is likely right now and in the short term which could well be the exact opposite of the longer term trend.

Averages, in any context, are numbers that have limited practical use beyond things like the financial aspect. Knowing how many passengers your airline carries each year for example is useful information for senior management and it's useful for the accounting department but it's completely useless for the Captain or First Officer who need to know the takeoff weight of the plane right now for the flight that's about to occur and couldn't care less what it was 6 months ago.
 
Really ?

Water is no longer relevant on your universe.
Since half the numbers were absolute new temperature highs ... not averages ... record low rainfall not averages ... lowest ever for 150-170 year ... record lowest ever humidity levels ... not averages ... do you understand math ? Clearly no idea about statistics or what a rainfall total is .... it rains ... add it to the total ...
an absolute low is the same ... record the high and low ... and if say humidity breaks it .. its a NEW LOW.

Same for temp ... NEW highs rarely broken well I lie as 3 days broke the 150 year records in 2019 and we just beat the old high in 2020.

Water is no longer relevant on your universe !!

Temperature ... water content ... also dont exist in your universe.

Floods where no rain has fallen and floods from 450 km away or 2,581 km away ... relevant.

Praise the new cult.

Since it hit a new all time record ever high temperature at both my main farms today ... 47.4 C up from 46.3 C set early 2019 and that beat the 2005 record ... of 44.8 C which was .. a mere 10 years old. record go back to 1886.

I would suggest, a brisk run or walk ... with a 1 litre water bottle in your universe ... since ones needs 10 litres a day at 45 c Let alone 47.4 C and that's not even moving. Iff outside and a Cow needs 120 litres one with calf 160-200 litres ... maybe your universe can provide 600,000 litres of water I need a day ? Oh water is not an issue on your planet.

Water is no longer relevant on your universe !!
I note with amusement Cynic and Sir Rumpole live there along with Mxjo .

Good luck on your walk with that 1 litre bottle.
 
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If you ever wondered what makes people wary of the climate change issue then just read some of these posts here. Hysterics and an unwillingness to acknowledge anything other than the most extreme situation possible. That's a pretty sure way to make people cautious of the issue at best.

Meanwhile back in the real world, well yes climate change is an issue as are many things.

That it's not and dry in SA during summer doesn't change the fact however that right now the temperature is 17.8 degrees in Adelaide and the humidity is 56%.

Regardless of any change in climate, short term weather still exists and nobody would sensibly say it doesn't. Now in the context of burning off, going to the beach or painting the house it's the weather, not the climate, which drives that decision.

Nobody who went to the beach yesterday when it was over 40 degrees said nah, won't go because it's going to be too cold tomorrow. What they did was respond to the weather at the time as do painters working outside and as do fire or other authorities burning off. They consider the soil and vegetation moisture, temperature, wind speed etc right now and forecast for the next few days, they don't worry about what's happening 6 months earlier or later.

The flaw in your argument is explained simply by saying that yes, burnoffs really were done in the drought areas within the last 3 years. The issue is that there weren't sufficient resources to do enough of them within the available window of time and in one case they were obstructed by protesters.

Meanwhile in the real world the fire fighters are using everything they can get which might in some way help. Police and the military are doing their best to keep people safe or evacuate them. Volunteers and business are doing what they can to keep food, water, fuel etc available where it's needed. AEMO has cracked open the proverbial piggy bank full of 5 cent pieces and had a look under the cushions to find a few more, pushed everything that still works to the limit and the lights have stayed on in NSW. And so on. Everyone's using everything they've got, nobody's knocking back partial solutions on ideological grounds.
 
Smurf1976 said:
If you ever wondered what makes people wary of the climate change issue then just read some of these posts here.
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I read your opinions in utter disbelief.

Smurf1976 said:
Hysterics and an unwillingness to acknowledge anything other than the most extreme situation possible. That's a pretty sure way to make people cautious of the issue at best.
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Talking factual ... events not opinions is ... hysteria ?


I accpet SOME not may areas were hazard reduced. As a long term resident of the areas right now on fire ... this did NOT occur in Victoria areas burning right now, nor the far South Coast of NSW. I even provided the prime example of WHY !!

As a person who knows the Cobargo RFS captain along with Bega and Tathra ... and Merimbula and Eden ... your opinion ... The issue is that there weren't sufficient resources to do enough of them within the available window of time and in one case they were obstructed by protesters.

The heads of both RFS in NSW and Victoria have categorically spoken about this facebook theory and dismissed it. They as mentioned and linked previously said it was NOT safe to do the actual burn-offs in many now hit regions.

When someone insists on their version of Water not being an issue .... or as the NSW RFS actually going into detail about 17 fires during the previous 2 years during controlled burn times being .... OUT OF CONTROL and it NOT being safe ...

Google Yankee gap .... 44 days to get a fire in July 2018 just under control ...

your whole opinion ... ignoring not only humidity ... rain ... temperature and actual fires is absurd.

Possibly rather than speaking out of your arse, it might be an idea to speak to say John Cullen the far south coast NSW RFS regional guy or say Steve H$#%@ the Merimbula fire and rescue guy or any of the others.

Your narrative, dismissing any facts ... on humidity or climate ... or what is safe is and has been quite violently and totally dismissed by the fire services of both NSW and Victoria .

Its actually offensive to gaslight ... and project a delusion ... to suit your view and opinion. I know Steve fairly well and he is a man in his 50's who has been with the RFS for 30 plus years. His view is that I shouldn't be speaking to morons, but ... heck he knows not a thing.

He and surrounding RFS did not control burn as much as they would have liked 2017-2019 due to extreme heat ... during winter and spring and record highs in 2018 beaten again in 2019. That is the bottom 400 km of NSW and adjoining Victoria regions.

But of course your Gaslighting and projection despite Vic head of RFS and NSW head of RFS saying the very same, is NOT valid on your universe.

So too that heat and lack of rain, record low rain fall and BLAMING protestors ? Are you serious ? Obviously you are ... well ... the three people and groups managing most of the land ... National Parks and State Forests then the Local Govt who defers to the RFS .. claiming it was aliens ? that stopped them ? No what was your whole dialogue based around ? Oh Greenies .... well State Forests did do some burnn offs in the Eden Area 2016 and 2017 and it was scary ... any protestors ... well ... non existent .. and well they are warned via signs about the dangers and if they wish to protest in a burning forest as your suggesting ,, the state forest guys would have laughed at them.

They are ... to be blunt well deserving to be on your planet.These mythical FOx/Sky news people who disrupted planned burn offs when fire heads speaking to National Parks and State Forests ... decided it would be idiotic and unsafe to do them. Control Burns .. that is.

I dont think I am hysterical, then again I tolerate fools only on the 31st Feb.

Signs of planned burn-offs go up weeks in advance .... then roads are blocked ... then they double check no one is stupid enough to have ignored it ... and police have zero tolerance for this. Then they burn ...

If you had any idea which clearly you dont ... you would not be sprouting BS !!

Greenies actually understand burning off is carbon neutral ... burn off releases CO2 ... new growth ... absorbs CO2 ... net ZERO CO2 .
 
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I cannot understand how such incompetent people are in a position of authority.

Kahuna is using public info to state a case that he believes to be true, unfortunately the info being published about being unsuitable to hazard reduce in winter gives the impression we actually have an option.

The ONLY option available is we can burn at least 10% of everything off Every winter without fail or Mother Nature will burn it off in the summer time.

If the dingalings do not now how to conduct a control burn when it is 15c to 18c then they can come and ask me, I knew how to do this when I was 12 and nothing has changed since.

Every experienced bushie knows how to do this safely, the Aboriginals knew how to do it, the early farmers knew how to do it................. talk about egomaniacs, in NSW they basically told all the experienced captains to piss off or do what you are told.

The captains and a lot of crews said we quit, we are not going to stand in front of 20 metre high fire walls when we Know how to fix it in Winter, I would do the same, wouldn't you ?
 

I think they believe they are helping but someone needs to explain about the Aussie bush.

By burning from May to August every year we reduce the scrub which links the forests together.

If we regularly burn under the trees it stops the fires from crowning and clears the undergrowth so that the flora all gets a life cycle in.

Forest that has been burnt in winter will have heaps of flowers in springtime, quite a few plants will not germinate unless burnt or in ash. Most need the sun to reach the ground to trigger their growth.

Near home we had a fire go through an area last year, this year we have flannel flowers in their thousands but no fire, no flowers will apply in two years time.

Our bush has a definite cycle create by the aborigines and we cannot expect it to change just to suit us
 
I'm on the south coast and you are full of sht
 
kahuna1 said:
Signs of planned burn-offs go up weeks in advance
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I don't know the approach used in NSW but one would hope that it's flexible enough to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. As such any warning to the public will be an intent to burn during a certain period but the actual date won't be known until very shortly before it's done due to the need to have suitable weather.

Over planning would be one sure way to end up with no opportunities to do it yes. I don't know but hopefully the authorities aren't using that as an excuse.
 
moXJO said:
I'm on the south coast and you are full of sht
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Perhaps you reside in an alternate universe.

Does February ever exceed 29 days in your universe?

If not, then that might, perchance, be the reason for such variant perspectives.
 
I note ...
as of 10.53 pm ... the Vic fire has leapfrogged into NSW by what looks like 30 km of the 50 to Eden.

Not a debate ... an observation from a local .. State forests Yambulla and so on ... tinder dry ... National Parks ... along the coast the same. Fuel load ... for whatever reason you wish to choose massive,

Not sure as a resident for many years, family in the region since 1835 ... but I am still not a local ... I do wonder the region close to Eden the state forest last burn-off and that was a close run disaster in 2016 ... adjoins state forest and national park and nature reserves ;.. all the way to Tathtra which burnt to the ground or close to it in March 2018 ...

My concern, is what tomorrow will bring ? Will the leapfrog of 30 km in 2 hrs be repeated as it was in say Cobargo another area that well burnt to the ground and Yowrie people got NO warning not emergency warning only to flee to Cobargo and it in flames 3 hours latter and fled to Bermagui ... on the cost and that now evacuated. Where will tomorrow morning be ? Will the Merimbula area and surrounds with ultra steep not back-burnt for 5 years be on fire ?

I have no idea. So too even RFS ... and whilst amusing being told I am quoting off some google search ... or whatever ... its pretty irrelevant your opinion.

As they say everyone has an opinions ... they are like assholes and we all think others opinions stink.

I sadly speak with a little experience in the region and many many days and nights in various parks and reserves and camping I suppose more than most the past 20 years.

Debating someone who visited once, or saw a fire once ... is somewhat besides the point. I note ex PM called it climate hysteria which has been repeated here a few times. SCOMO called them city based Climate Imbeciles and a few other choice words and NOW ... he is calling in the Army reserve ...

I hope for the best, had a few very close calls last few days on o loved ones. One missed it by 10 minutes and it was only sheer luck they evacuated as it was on the 31st Dec . HOUSE LOST .... all possessions lost and so it goes. I suppose I have 10 pretty good friends with similar stories but only one is a total loss of house, the others have had business's destroyed and lost 70% of yearly income as town evacuated in peak holiday season.

Whilst a distraction your comments and views, however quaint ... absurd and city based non science backed, I do wonder what tomorrow and next few weeks brings for my town of the last 10 years ... just moved to the farms .... Merimbula .. prior to that 15 years in Tathra which well it burnt out in March 2018. Only 69 houses lost there. My friend who fled Yowrie ... lost her home. She was in her 80's in a wheel chair to boot. Friend in Quama actually stayed and defended and well .. I must tell her and her hubbie off ... it was close. Friends in Batemans bay ... close ... Mogo well lost business literally that time.

I hope ... Bermagui ... Eden and Merimbula, Pambula and Tura are spared.

Despite valliant efforts by RFS and idiotic insulting crap on this thread, even they have not much hope of stopping it if conditions do not improve vastly. It could be like the Cobargo stuff ... and Batemans Bay region a 50 km chomp all at once.

As a country lad, with ties to a few regions now, people with opinions as to who does what often are absurd. Knowing how a burnoff is announced and done is something one learns over many years. Whilst some of the fires that just broke the containment lines are NSW Forrest regions ... the other prong is nation Parks so RFS in this situation with the assets takes the lead, the region from Vic Border to just south of Eden is a total PIG for trying to stop anything. Some spots have great camping spots over very steep ravines down to rivers and lakes, but trying to defend .... let alone a controlled burn in dry conditions is really not possible. Not even the bravest would suggest a controlled burn in anything other than very wet conditions.

Strange to be ... well ... questioned ... told I am full of BS when I likely could describe and identify most of the coastal and inland bush for 300 km up to say Arualeun and Braidwood near Moruya and Mogo.

Better run ... the worst case fire prediction map ... just got broken by about 10 km closer to Eden and I have calls to make
 
Well they wont need any controlled burning, in a lot of areas for quite some time, after this lot finishes.
 
There is a very dangerous game playing out:
There are ifocus and kahuna1 by the thousands and on all news pages, happyly typing from their AC study, eithin 10km from cbds explaining us how it is and how it should be.
Most of them never cleared any bush, unable to manage a fire bigger than a gas bbq, never holding a chainsaw or obviously a fire hose.
It is one thing to have them talking about negative gearing or CGT, but when their incompetence risk the life of your family or your lifetime work, the anger got murderous.
This is not really a left right situation, but still has a strong imbalance as common sense and practicality is seldom a Green or Labour attribute.
We are really going to see another scission between the cities and the countryside
Close the gate will not be restricted to mining
Add water, fire and vegetation, and basically how these extra laws added year after years by states and worse councils
 
qldfrog said:
There are ifocus and kahuna1 by the thousands and on all news pages, happyly typing from their AC study, eithin 10km from cbds explaining us how it is and how it should be.
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You are an imbecile ...

Seriously ... Its strange I know the region fairly well.

I merely wish to place a perspective on the region and reality.

I have friends in Eden ... so too Merimbula and know a lot of the people so a turd ... bainting me ...

Well the lines just jumped another 5 km closer to Eden ..

I cant upload the RFS site ... the map

https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me


but hmm ... would a non local know the owner of the Cafe at the Eden wharfs name ? Or the Greeks who own the fish and chip shop ... or the best local bartender in Eden Fishermans ... well she just moved to Merimbula bowling club ... Hi Sonija ... favorite beach ... Tug boat Captian ... most of the ab divers and well ... most of the fishermen and Chris who runs the best mob.

Nah I have no local connections obviously !! Can do the same for the next 150 kms if not 200 or so North.

Internet and this site troll infested.
 
kahuna1 said:
You are an imbecile ...
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The difference is the calm and rational discussion of something, anything, versus running around throwing stones and screaming.

In any emergency situation that's not of any help whatsoever. It just uses up time and effort to achieve nothing whilst distracting anyone with some actual ideas on how to improve the situation.

What, exactly, is your solution to avoid future fires?

Not your plan to get someone elected or cover someone's backside but your plan to prevent fires?

Mine? As I've said, I have no perfect solution but rather a lot of partially effective ones. Do all of them and combined they'd bring about a substantial improvement. Imperfect but better than what we have now.
 
I did look closely at the prediction maps ...

It just jumped 5 km beyond predicted map on the RFS live site ....
https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me

I now note the altered advice and evacuation of Eden where the police just knocked on a friends door. Off to Merimbula which is about 30 km or so north ...

RFS site .... v Police ... as a local fire coming from the South ... pretty much a no brainer to head north with three kids and pets.

Very happy this friend got advice, then again Eden is not Yowrie or even Cobargo, its 50 times the size of the first and Yowrie other than local shop and a few other things tiny ... Cobargo used to have a few shops along the Princess Highway ... about half gone.

Not questioning ever the service of the boys and girls in blue ... NEVER ....

Just a bit of a schmuzzle the emergency system or lack of it for some ...

Hmmm sleep will not come I suspect for a while. Fingers crossed.

Fire seems a mere 2-3 km from Boydtown which is ... well a decent caravan park there now ... likely deserted ... old Inn they did up and a subdivision which has been a pink elephant for 20 years but still has I suppose 50 houses spread over a vast area ....

I did get some twit on the Vic fire thread alluding that I was not local. Strange to be able to describe things. Boydtown inn ... dining room one end ... function rooms the other ... with a nice bar between fronts onto the Eden Harbor which is lovelely and well protected.

The beach ... a must ... in moonlight ... full moon go swimming and cup some sand and water ... its full of sparkles .... some shiny pyrite I think in the sand and its magical.

View from the front looks out over 2 Km of water to Eden itself ...

Advice

  • If you are in the area of Womboyn, Kiah, Narrabarba, Towamba, Burragate, Eden and surrounds, you are at risk.
  • It is too late to leave.
  • Seek shelter as the fire approaches. Protect yourself from the heat of the fire.
 
sptrawler said:
Well they wont need any controlled burning, in a lot of areas for quite some time, after this lot finishes.
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Bottom line is the trees are going, vegetation is accumulating, and ultimately either it rots, is removed or it burns.

If it's hot and dry enough then it won't rot which means either it's physically removed or it will burn, the only choice being whether that's done voluntarily in a planned manner in Winter or involuntarily on a random date in Summer.

Aboriginals worked this out a very long time ago. Shame we seem unable to learn anything from them.
 
It has become a political issue, which is very welcomed by certain sectors, it will be interesting if certain sectors are found wanting at a later date IMO.
 
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