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Victorian Fires

Fuel load, lazy councils, tree management, drought all played a factor. Blaming it on that idiot scomo is blame misplaced. It also ignores the reality.
Australia states and local gov got lazy. Fire breaks were needed well before.

Must be the most inept performance ever seen by an Australian PM


Watching the 2nd clip here is painful John Howard would never have just walked away never mind forcing the hand shake.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...-welcome-he-deserved-says-liberal-mp/11838476
 
Must be the most inept performance ever seen by an Australian PM

Absolutely terrible performance. This will right him off for the rest of his term- if he lasts that long. The trip to Hawaii was his downfall in the opinion polls.

However, he's an easy scapegoat to what the actual problem was.
 
Fuel load, lazy councils, tree management, drought all played a factor. Blaming it on that idiot scomo is blame misplaced. It also ignores the reality.
Australia states and local gov got lazy. Fire breaks were needed well before.

A firey captain was asked on ABC this morning to compare the previous Victorian fires (he fought them as well) with the current as far as conditions etc went he calmly said they were at least double how are you going to deal with that?

Its not a blame game its a new paradigm

He also said his own family have been evacuated and that his place although in the firing line wont be defended in the coming days what can we say when this is the service we get from these people.


Compare that to our PM Smoko.

Note, Vic Premier Andrews praised Smoko for his help in coordination for the Victorian fire evacuations (thats leadership) Smoko has failed the test where this is the time for standing shoulder to shoulder not looking for photo opts for political standing.

Shame really it does Australia no good
 
You do know he has been coordinating with state govt all week. As recently as navy ships to Andrews. Photo ops he is bombing in. But let's face it: It's leftist out in force powerwhinging at the neocon. Scomo will simply wait for the rain to save his ar5e.

It's as dry as 83 for Vic. When there is no rain the leaf litter doesn't decompose. And yes the climate changing is affecting that. That's a problem not a solution. Scomo accepting climate change won't do much for issues we are facing now.
 
I haven't seen one house that has roof sprinklers also seems none have independent water supply's yet most in and around bush.

Politically the left haven't put the boot in that will likely come later, the media have only shown the footage havent seen much finger pointing will be interesting if Alan Jones will defend or get in line to kick him, Morrison has shown he really is only a marketing man totally out of his depth.

The ALP actually went to the last election with a costed plan for increased fires increasing resources like aircraft etc as far as I know Coalition had and still has nothing.

Current Fed government had been brief extensively that this current situation was a real possibility.

Then throw into the mix the NSW emergency services minister took a holiday, its only optics but will certainly be a lighting rod for anger like Morrison's Hawaii jaunt over 1300 home lost and countless businesses and its only the start of January.

And the CC stuff is very relevant this is what it looks like.
 


Fuel load, lazy councils, tree management, drought all played a factor. Blaming it on that idiot scomo is blame misplaced. It also ignores the reality.
Australia states and local gov got lazy. Fire breaks were needed well before.



Totally agree with moXJO and Smurf. Doesn't matter who is in Government. Liberal or Labour. It would have been exactly the same outcome. Even with zero emissions, we would have had a pretty bad bushfire season.
 
And the CC stuff is very relevant this is what it looks like.

It's relevant in it's effect on Australia. Not so much the bleating that reduce emissions in Australia will help in any form for the current situation. It's not going to stop jack the world will continue to pollute. It's a cheap talking point. And funding is at record highs.

Lol.... I doubt he voted libs, but this just in from the guardian :

SCOMO BURNT MY HOUSE DOWN.
 
There have been long droughts in this country that lasted decades. Things can get a lot worse.
 
There have been long droughts in this country that lasted decades. Things can get a lot worse.

Indeed there have been. But these droughts have happened in the context of an overall climate that was significantly cooler than our current experience and which will get progressively much warmer on our current trajectory.

Add drought to that base climate and many places in Australia will be uninhabitable.
https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Oa...mate/State-of-the-Climate-2018/Future-climate

Really ? Your quite happy to quote and believe one person who was savage on Scomo (He burn't my house down.) but don't accept another person's story that is also critical of Government CC policy but prefaces it with saying he is angry about the lack of effective policies dealing CC.
 
A firey captain was asked on ABC this morning to compare the previous Victorian fires (he fought them as well) with the current as far as conditions etc went he calmly said they were at least double how are you going to deal with that?

I think the point being made is that yes the conditions are extreme but there are many contributing factors as to why this is the case.

Climate change is one factor but only one.

Weather cycles are one but again only one.

Land management is another. It's not just about burning off, although that's one thing, but also about where we put houses, where we have trees, failing to do even basic things like slashing long grass around towns and beside roads, changes to the land due to everything from mining to bushwalking and so on. There's a multitude of failures in this field alone.

Fire brigade resourcing both equipment and humans is another. If we'd had sufficient resources to put the fires out when they started then that would have made a difference almost certainly. Sufficient resources as in yes, do send the proverbial sledgehammer in to smash the nut to pieces and if that turns out to be overkill well it's better than doing the opposite and letting the fire spread.

And so on. Those saying that climate change is the only factor (not referring to anyone here but in general) are basically playing politics, diverting discussion away from the full range of contributing factors because regardless of who they vote for, they know full well that "their" side is absolutely guilty in at least one area.

As a random example, in SA there's a magic line drawn on the maps and this has significant consequences for various things relating to management of trees, building requirements and so on. In short, according to the map, fire doesn't jump from one side of the road to another. So you've got bush on one side which is continuous bush up into and over the Adelaide Hills and on the other you've got housing which is continuous urban development right through to the Adelaide CBD.

Have a look on Google maps at any of the eastern suburbs of Adelaide and you'll immediately see what I'm referring to. Now consider that homes on the city side of the road are officially deemed absolutely safe from fire and fall under metropolitan rules which mean they can't remove a 20m high gum tree right next to the place and so on. On the other side of that 2 lane suburban street it's bush stretching for tens of km.

Now looking at these fires in Victoria and NSW, and noting that it's 44 degrees outside with 9% humidity right now where I am in SA, well I have some trouble believing that a normal 2 lane suburban street is going to stop a fire. If it does well then how about we get every council worker, road contractor any anyone who's ever built any sort of road together, send them to NSW and Vic, and have them put a road between the fire and the houses since this will stop the fire. Heck we can even put speed signs etc on it just for some light entertainment. We all know why we're not doing that - it doesn't stop the fire and yet in SA there's a reliance that it will. Either that or there really will be a fire crew at pretty much every house in some streets.

The sad thing about all this is that it's not new. A substantial portion of Hobart was wiped out in the fire disaster of 1967 with 62 lives lost, close to a thousand injuries and ~7000 people left homeless - pretty big numbers for a place with a relatively small population and it all happened in an afternoon. Some smoke at lunchtime, total devastation just hours later. Now I'm pretty sure that wasn't caused by climate change.

Much the same with the Ash Wednesday fires in Vic and SA. Went from nothing to all over alarmingly fast.

We need to learn from this and stop looking for someone to blame. Yes climate change has probably made it worse but there was never a time when entire towns being wiped out wasn't a risk. Just because we went years without it happening doesn't mean it's a new thing.
 

A drought is a drought and temperatures still hit highs. Being dry isn't just a climate change issue. Neither are firebugs.
Fuel load starts to mass and makes a more intense fire when left unchecked.

8 tonnes a hectare is considered a fire hazard. There is up to 50 tonnes on estimates. Towns are burning because idiots locked up the forests, zero management and refused firebreaks.

Blaming fires solely on climate change is simpleton rubbish. And all the simpletons are out in force.
 
Blaming fires solely on climate change is simpleton rubbish. And all the simpletons are out in force.

Indeed it is MoXjo - and attempting to say that is the claim of climate scientists and the CSIRO is a bigger simpleton lie.

Each and every statement made by these bodies on the issue makes it clear that the role of climate change and a warming climate is to simply steeply escalate the ferocity and dangers of bushfires.
CC doesn't start fires; it just adds a the sort of kick we are now seeing in play around the world.

Naturally that ends up being a longer statement than the currently understood three word slogans. So its easy for your average climate denying politician/Murdoch hack/ect to just make up their own version of reality to poison the conversation.

If I was too look for a historical comparison the "Nestle kills babies " slogan on the 70's comes to mind. Short, powerful and intrinsically accurate. It cut through the corporate speak of teh time.
 
Blah blah blah ....
last 3 years Bega region .... 60% rain 2 degrees hotter and 80% humidity.

Our local wanker/Member ... openly would like to debate some points raised here.

When its been very dry for 3 years and a local town Tathra where I lived for 10 years lost 70 homes ... in march 2018 ... of course controlled burns DID NOT OCCUR .... nor in the last 6 months with record dry and record hot for the region ... 1oo year records.

Debating about fuel load ... is insulting when it was not safe enuf even in winter to burn not just 2019 but 2018 and 2017.

Why is there more crap on the ground ? well for the 1.5 million hectares burning in southern NSW only an imbecile would have done a controlled burn at any stage in 2019.

Suggesting that HOT .... ultra dry ... ultra low humidity is NOT a factor or the major factor is suggesting that a wet newspaper burns just as well as a hot dry ultra dry one.

I find it tedious and amazing to have a friend who just lost her home near Cobargo ... fled to her daughters only to have it under threat 20 km away ... and PM turned up in her town and local member who is a dedicated mealy mouthed climate denier who like most want to debate science which ... I am surprised is a debate. BOM ... has the figures ... the regions burnt so far have had 50-60% normal rain over the last 3 years. Have had 1-2 degree warmer than normal and at best .... 80% humidity.

I cant debate it, but seemingly some would like to talk about fuel loads, NOT why controlled burns did not occur ... because ... it was NOT safe ... similar if not identical numbers for Victorian regions burning and since Eden and Merimbula are close the forests are tinder dry.

If we had say above average rainfall and even some rain and Bega I think had 30% of normal last three months .... a debate or even questioning with anything not appearing totally stupid would not be occurring.

I am aware of the ex CSRIO fire guy and his view about fuel loads ... but seriously ... why are there or was there so much accumulated fuel ... and it HAD NOTHING to do with greenies !! A lot of the region was National Parks ... the rest state owned forests ... not a thing to do with greenies or their views or issues. They have ZERO input into management of either. In fact they are viewed correctly by both as IDIOTS.
 
Agreed but we need to respond to this rather than sitting around pointing the blame.

Tomorrow I'll go and take a photo or two to illustrate the point.
 
I cant debate it, but seemingly some would like to talk about fuel loads, NOT why controlled burns did not occur ... because ... it was NOT safe ...
There are many areas where burns could and should have been done but weren't.

Some of those have had heavy rain - there would definitely have been a period between then or now when conditions were indeed "just right" but the opportunity wasn't taken.
 
for anyone not enlisting me in the ignore list, in qld at least, 2011 was the year of flood, my dam overflowing for 13months in a row...lantana grew like mad, i sorted that part but not in the NP next door and there was plenty of time to burn off
no fire for the last 30y, seems we will be ok this year now, but fire will happen, expect more images similar to this week coming from Brisbane hinterland....The worst is that even if we had serious reasonable changes, the mistakes are made and it will be very hard to reduce that fuel load safely now..it is too late, so bring on the water bombers
Last point: here in qld, winter is our fire season, august, september our dry time up to december sometimes early january...even in normal years...I am not sure the Brisbane SES are that aware when you read the news and the way preventive burn off are decided in NP
 
Debate ... deny ... and please go on.
In 2018 March A town called Tathra burnt ...
If you are suggesting at some time in 2018 or 2019 a controlled burn could have occurred, well the local RFS and evidence suggests you are quite uninformed.

A fire broke out about 6 months ago ... in the region West of the Cobargo area currently burning ... it was NOT put out ... could not be put out and has burnt for months during both winter and spring. Hey presto its now summer !!

Rainfall in Bega last 3 months, if you looked and tried not to push your point of view, quaint ... as it is ...

October 2019 rain 18 mm average ... NORMAL ... 47.2 mm
Temp .... October plus 2.4 Degrees above norm ..
https://www.eldersweather.com.au/dailysummary.jsp?lt=site&lc=69139&dt=3

November 2019 rain ... 32.6 mm v normal of 68.8 mm ... so that at just under 50% is BETTER ... than October
It is however shocking ....
Temp a full 3 degrees WARMER than usual ... HIGHS ...

December 2019 rain
... 4mm v a NORMAL 65 MM .... second lowest EVER on record and since records go back to 1845 ....
Temp high ave only a mere 2.5 degrees warmer than average
https://www.eldersweather.com.au/dailysummary.jsp?lt=site&lc=69139&dt=1

I do wish ... people with opinions not based upon facts would take the time to check.

The numbers for the proceeding 6 months in the whole region are if anything WORSE overall as they are for the last 3 years.

Suggesting its safe to light a fire even in winter when rainfall if 50% of normal and temps are record highs and humidity at record lows for 100 plus years, Well ...

that would be pick a word.

Claiming they could and did not ... I scratch my head where this BS and pure stupidity comes from.


There are many areas where burns could and should have been done but weren't.

Its not hard to look at the BPM charts for rainfall ... temp and humidity and then please explain WHERE they could have lit a fire ? The whole burnt region is in the 50-60% average rainfall for 3 years.

That region in NSW goes from top to bottom .... and its even lower as one goes inland.

Rain ? Some storm we missed ? Oh really !!

Opinion or factually backed ?



Red is lowest EVER rainfall on record ....
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/history/rainfall/




2019 IS not done yet but its WORSE ....

Where is this rain ? Where it was safe ?
2019 is actually shocking with vast regions not only hitting new rain lows but lows 80% and in some cases lower ... of the worst drought EVER.

Since I own property in various places in NSW one region ... Walgett had 122 MM and you told me to wait till the end of the year .... since the previous lowest ever recorded rainfall was I think 176 MM v a normal of 450 mm.

Well we got no rain between 22 Dec 2019 and 1st Jan so what is that ... 122 MM v 176 previous all time low and 452 MM normal.

Well ... the NEW low is 69.3% of the OLD record low.
It was ... a staggering 26.9% OF normal.

Since I have land in a few regions most have it at the 50-60% of normal ... temps 2 degrees above norm and record low humidity and even this seems to escape most.

The numbers .... are diabolical ... yet debated by the truly devoted to non science.
I am astounded someone like you suggested there was some rain and safe period to do burnoffs. Yep during all time hot and dry conditions as I pointed out.

Lets have a fire tomorrow I will bring the petrol as it explodes !!

It is not logical or productive to debate facts. It is in fact ... well I will not be rude ... look at the red in the above maps !! ALL TIME 120 year low rainfall ... Yes they did not burn off for a reason that even a casual observer can see.

Or so I thought.
 
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