Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

VET - Vocation Limited

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Really cant help yourself can you? Just jump in to another thread and play your usual game.

I feel sorry for someone with such an arrogant and nasty streak, you must be a lonely little duck.
 
I think it's a legit question

Inspite of pretty strong evidence the stocks a dog
You decide to take a trade at 19
You continue to hold as it's value halves.
Then when it turns and rises quickly you still hold
Waiting to reach your buy price???

If it was a buy at 19 why wasn't it a bigger bargain at 10 c?
Or
Why wasn't it a sale?

If your still holding why haven't you belted it at such
Low prices?

Your rhetoric says one thing
Your actions something completely different

Conclusion
Gambling
 
DeepState said:
So now you have a corporate entity (this time including corporate) which pretty much makes nothing in EBIT (prob still in significant losses), cannot borrow materially to grow, is in a turnaround...trading with a market cap of $36m. All this works out as having goodwill at least as large as AS/ACAE + Endeavour. All this to be built from ashes of a company which has less operating capacity. Around half of which is a CEO announcement effect. None of which includes any provision for the class actions.
Click to expand...

Assuming they are in a zero net cash/net debt position... I'd pretty much neglect the rest of the balance sheet items. The class action is the big one that isn't there... but can a class action bankrupt a company? Or they will work out a payment plan (like James Hardies)?

So the company is left with AVANA, Real and Customer Service Institute of Australia. Are you saying they make nothing in EBIT (before corporate)?

I mentioned it before that it may be worth reassessing... I had a quick look but couldn't really pin down a valuation. I was hoping the company would give guidance in numbers (which will almost certainly create over- or under-reactions) but the stock has ran on the back of the CFO -> CEO appointment, which I agree with you and didn't think was worth that much in market cap.

Perhaps long term shorters were just looking to cover now that bankruptcy isn't imminent. But the volumes are much larger than the outstanding shorts so there's plenty of real buying as well.

DeepState said:
I checked, the stock is unborrowable...dammit.
Click to expand...

We have some available to us. Outstanding shorts are now down to 1.73% so probably plenty been returned?

http://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=vet
 
skc said:
1. Assuming they are in a zero net cash/net debt position... I'd pretty much neglect the rest of the balance sheet items. The class action is the big one that isn't there... but can a class action bankrupt a company? Or they will work out a payment plan (like James Hardies)?

2. So the company is left with AVANA, Real and Customer Service Institute of Australia. Are you saying they make nothing in EBIT (before corporate)?

3. I mentioned it before that it may be worth reassessing... I had a quick look but couldn't really pin down a valuation. I was hoping the company would give guidance in numbers (which will almost certainly create over- or under-reactions) but the stock has ran on the back of the CFO -> CEO appointment, which I agree with you and didn't think was worth that much in market cap.

4. Perhaps long term shorters were just looking to cover now that bankruptcy isn't imminent. But the volumes are much larger than the outstanding shorts so there's plenty of real buying as well.

5. We have some available to us. Outstanding shorts are now down to 1.73% so probably plenty been returned?
Click to expand...

1. Don't know. It's a weird one. All I can say is that an allowance should be made for this as there is a world of pain coming. However, will shareholders who got duped then and still hold now be best served by bankrupting the firm (suing themselves to pay themselves) etc.. I'm just adjusting whatever valuation I get for this.

2. H1 15 says they made EBIT 1.2m before corporate as underlying. Corporate was abt 8m. This would be sliced to bits now, but would not be zero.

3. I can't develop a DCF style valuation worth anything. That's why I choose to value via embedded goodwill instead vs recent transactions. It just looks ridiculous on that measure.

4. Bankruptcy risk probably dropped a lot following the sale of Endeavour. Moving VETtrack off is pretty much nothing. The announcement of Cummins as CEO (fairly uncontroversial) has to be the attribution. $18m bucks for that just for turning up? No way. There aren't even enough operating assets left. What they have is some concept of brand value in repeat students. For something with EBIT of 1.2m in H1 15, in turnaround, can't borrow etc... can you believe what you are looking at? This looks really stupid. What am I missing in this?

5. Lucky you. I was checking with IG who claim the stock is unborrowable. I suspect that they use the same prime broker as you guys. Reduction in outstanding borrow might come as a result of institutional investment declining somewhat and the borrow being pulled. Don't really know.
 
I still hold, I throw money at a dozen of these scenario and hold till the dying light :)

Once I am in I am committed and I write it off against other gain if it doesn't work out but never

ever I sell at a loss because of some bad press or headlines else I be dying with a thousand cut with these sort of scenario.
 
ROE said:
I still hold, I throw money at a dozen of these scenario and hold till the dying light :)

Once I am in I am committed and I write it off against other gain if it doesn't work out but never

ever I sell at a loss because of some bad press or headlines else I be dying with a thousand cut with these sort of scenario.
Click to expand...

I cant see why people aren't belting it.
You'll soon see where it reaches a point where people start to take profit it reduce current losses.
Right now with another 28% gain today you don't get that every day.
And the 2 days before were far more!

Get in milk it --get out!
 
Price action today indicates its hard going for buyers.
Sellers seem to be able to push it off its highs.
If a bullish start tomorrow Id be inclined to sell at the first sign of weakness
tomorrow.

So far its over 100 % in 3 days!
This could come off hard.
 
DeepState said:
1. Don't know. It's a weird one. All I can say is that an allowance should be made for this as there is a world of pain coming. However, will shareholders who got duped then and still hold now be best served by bankrupting the firm (suing themselves to pay themselves) etc.. I'm just adjusting whatever valuation I get for this.
Click to expand...

When VET was still whole a class action was a risk but the payout would have probably amounted to less than normalised EBITDA. Now that there's not much left I have no idea what sort of crater a class action could potentially leave, and having just watched Deep Impact it could even be an ELE. Can a court force a company into insolvency through a class action? I think in the US some states don't allow them to, but I have no idea what the case is in Australia.

Cummins seems like a pretty good war time CFO but how good will he be at actually getting this company back on a growth footing? IMO, that's a pretty big task especially given they're probably frozen out of equity markets in the short/medium term.

With such little forward vision I don't understand the big run up in SP.
 
McLovin said:
With such little forward vision I don't understand the big run up in SP.
Click to expand...


I believe everyone is just speculating and hoping!!!

Some will make money trading the stock and some who do not know what they are doing are going to get caught out...!!:2twocents
 
Triathlete said:
I believe everyone is just speculating and hoping!!!

Some will make money trading the stock and some who do not know what they are doing are going to get caught out...!!:2twocents
Click to expand...

Seeing weakness now Under 17c
Had a good run up.
 
Rational maybe out the window but
30% moves = opportunity.
Buy dips
Caution at tests
Look to volume and range for hints
 
Qualifications of 1,100 studends recalled... the company announced that they need to pay back some $9m to the State, but there was no mention of any compensationto the students?

Of all the time wasted, actual expenses incurred, change in income and job prospects etc etc.

I wonder if there are any precedence on this kind of "class action"?
 
Game over for Vocation.
Market-darling to market-no-more in under 2 years. Couldn't write this stuff!
 
VSntchr said:
Game over for Vocation.
Market-darling to market-no-more in under 2 years. Couldn't write this stuff!
Click to expand...

Yup... looks like the class action was probably their downfall. Banks simply wouldn't loan them the money to settle class action.

I am pretty sure the company said they had a strong balance sheet... :banghead:

DeepState said:
I'll put all my VET-AU against those of any comer that wants to take a position against mine that this company is dust and worth zero.

If I win the bet, I get all your stock.
If you win, you get all of mine....

Hang on a minute....something isn't quite right about this.
Click to expand...

You win!!!

McLovin said:
Bam! IQE isn't having a fun week either, down 50%.
Click to expand...

And ACO is still suspended. Have you ever seen a sector crash and burn so bad and so comprehensively in such a short period of time.

It goes back to how silly our government is with their (our) money. The intention was good... the governance and control thereafter = non existent. Every men and their dog saw the scam and went hard with it... then dump it onto the public with a fistfull of IPOs. :banghead:
 
galumay said:
At least my gamble of entering at 19c looks like it might have some payoff after all. :D
Click to expand...

Hmmm...time to revisit my decision journal and see if there is some learning away to take from this experience.

First point is that my rule of only applying 'play' money I am happy to lose to speccy, currently unprofitable businesses saved me from real harm.

In my DJ I noted that the "Catastrophic Risk" was very real due to debt covenants and litigation, so I sized my position understanding there was a very real risk of total capital loss, but I also obviously saw some upside, if it could trade its way back from the brink.

I think my main learning here is a reminder that when gambling the house nearly always wins!
 

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