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Price at 2.65. T/O offer at 2.825. That's about a tick over 6.5% difference.
Market saying there's a bit of a hurdle? Anyone buying in to take advantage?
I have weighed it up, but the trade Risk/Reward is not favourable enough for me at the moment.
Downside if it doesn't succeed is perhaps 40c = -15%
Upside, is as you say, 6.5%.
By my calcs, that says the market gives the takeover a chance of success of 92.5%.
This is also excluding the time value, which is likely 3 months or more?
Alot of hurdles to jump over before this takeover is successful so personally I'd want a bigger discount.
On the flipside, if you think the chance of a higher bid is not insignificant then the calculations will change again.