NXL - Nuix Limited

[kenny]

AFR article was quite one sided given the lack of detail from the investigations at this stage. Whilst I don't hold, I'm interested enough to keep an eye on the Market Cap as it dips below $1B which may take it below 5x Revenue. Standen & Phillips are some of the sharpest operators in the Millionaires Factory and they remain involved.

I agree that early investors should rightly use the liquidity event of an IPO to realise some of their gains.

 

[bk1]

Investor Day presentation has lifted the sp by 10% as i write, the market is obviously happy for now. I didn't see anything in it that was not known previously, i would be interested in the views of anybody that holds NXL...

 

[dyna]

Don't hold.(yet). This from today's AFR,quoting a former NXL senior executive "Like AMP,it can't innovate and the culture's so bad,it's hard to recruit".
The company's auditors delayed the 2019 full year audit due to squabbles over R&D tax claims of $ 42 Million.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Nuix has downgraded its financial year 2021 revenue targets for the second time in two months, adding fresh pressure to its share price after a sharp drop over the past few weeks.

Nuix anticipates revenue for the year to June 30 of $173 million to $182 million, down from a forecast in April of $180 million to $185 million.

The company said the outlook for earnings before interest and tax would remain the same, but its annualised contract value would also fall, and is forecast to slip to $165 million to $172 million, down from prior guidance of $168 million to $177 million.

.... Carelessness personified?

 

[dyna]

Volume 20 million. What a day.There will be more days like this ,right up to June 30 , I guess.
Institutional investors are just giving up on this thing ,now.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

There will be more days like this ,right up to June 30 , I guess.
Institutional investors are just giving up on this thing ,now.

well guessed.

Nuix chairman Jeffrey Bleich said Nuix is "genuinely disturbed by the allegations" concerning its former chief financial officer, Stephen Doyle, "and will fully assist ASIC in getting to the bottom of that matter" after ASIC commenced an investigation. This investigation also includes Ross and Ronald Doyle.

Nuix has learned of a separate investigation into the affairs of Nuix related to its financial statements and prospectus, with which it plans to fully cooperate, it added.

Run for the hills? Plumbed as low as $2.16 today, some 15% down.

And reputational damage to those involved, including Macquarie? Immeasurable.

 

[peter2]

I'll admit that I'm tempted by this chart but not until after their next update which is Monday (30/8/21).
I suspect there'll be lots watching this one.

 

[dyna]

A lot of insiders' and former executives' stock comes out of escrow , Monday, too. So that will make things interesting. Macquarie's $ 250+ mill ,as well, but they ,at least, won't be bailing.

 

[bk1]

No, Macquarie wont be bailing. Institutions bought in a couple of months ago, me too.
Monday will tell the tale, hopefully i called the bottom.
It has revenue and profit, something you cant always find in the Software and Services sector.

 

[dyna]

Well done you. For the not so bold and brave of this wonderful forum...( me ) there's more:
LIC , Sandon Capital has a small holding in NXL, too. Now that is somewhat interesting, considering the stunning success they've had with a well-timed investment in a beaten-up Boral and Iluka Resources and something else, that's slipped my mind.

 

[galumay]

Braver than me to risk capital here.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Braver than me to risk capital here.

stunning results... down 10%

Nuix has swung to a $1.6 million statutory loss in financial 2021, versus a profit of $23.6 million in financial 2020. Revenue rose 0.1 per cent to $176 million.

On a pro forma or adjusted basis it said profit rose 33.2 per cent to $25 million, versus $18.8 million in the prior year. It said it won 100 new customers over the year at an average order value of $240,000. Customer churn finished at 3.7 per cent.

 

[Miner]

NXL shed lot of blood from investors and it is pay back time for the directors in terms of corporate due diligence complaints and getting out of the company.
Unfortunately MQG will as usual will get jail free card considering the loss of todays' has been well covered with the prices when NXL jacked up to more than $11. The whole structure of the organization and promoters carry lots of baggage .

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02414154-2A1319483?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02414150-2A1319481?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

With escrow open from tomorrow, trading on 31st August would be very interesting

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02406489-2A1315349?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

Disclaimer - DNH

 

[kenny]

It's tempting to bottom fish I must admit but it's unclear to me;

• how strong is retention of current contracts (3.7% churn is blended and hides a lot) and recurring revenue given the change from module based pricing to subscription
• how good is the sales pipeline and how well are the sales team able to convert the leads this quarter and the next
• have they reduced their burn rate to compensate for the changes
• what is Fair Value and how would I compare this with another ASX company?

Help?

 

[aus_trader]

It's tempting to bottom fish I must admit but it's unclear to me;

• how strong is retention of current contracts (3.7% churn is blended and hides a lot) and recurring revenue given the change from module based pricing to subscription
• how good is the sales pipeline and how well are the sales team able to convert the leads this quarter and the next
• have they reduced their burn rate to compensate for the changes
• what is Fair Value and how would I compare this with another ASX company?

Help?

I don't think even the company management might be able to answer some of those questions.

One thing I noted that really impacted the bottom line was 'general & admin' expense:

Way higher than last year's and turned what could've been a +ve income to a -ve income i.e. Profit to a Loss. Don't know if this is one off due to compensating for Covid related issues that they had to spend or a recurring theme going forward...

 

[kenny]

I don't think even the company management might be able to answer some of those questions.

One thing I noted that really impacted the bottom line was 'general & admin' expense:

View attachment 129668

Way higher than last year's and turned what could've been a +ve income to a -ve income i.e. Profit to a Loss. Don't know if this is one off due to compensating for Covid related issues that they had to spend or a recurring theme going forward...

Interesting pickup @aus_trader and I would be at least partially attributing it to legal costs and provisions given the scandals NXL has been hit with.

 

[aus_trader]

Interesting pickup @aus_trader and I would be at least partially attributing it to legal costs and provisions given the scandals NXL has been hit with.

Good point, it's very costly when it comes to anything legal.

So it's a good thing I am having a few shares of what I believe is the best dividend paying legal stock on the asx in the Speculative Stock Portfolio

 

[Miner]

I don't think even the company management might be able to answer some of those questions.

One thing I noted that really impacted the bottom line was 'general & admin' expense:

View attachment 129668

Way higher than last year's and turned what could've been a +ve income to a -ve income i.e. Profit to a Loss. Don't know if this is one off due to compensating for Covid related issues that they had to spend or a recurring theme going forward...

This is a company going to be a corporate case study for law students not too far distance.

 

[dyna]

To ignore warnings from your own auditors ( re : a dodgy $ 42 Mill R&D claim 2 years ago ) is just baffling.
Half of that government grant ( tax payers' money, here folks ) was supposed to be spent in THIS country , not 5%. The ATO is surely not gonna let this thing go. So, more legal fees will appear in next year's annual report.
Also, PWC is yet to sign off on this year's accounts that went down so well with the market on Monday.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Nuix has had a better week or two, lifting from the $2.50 mark to be around $3.20 today.

NXL is pleased to announce the appointment of Mr Jonathan Rubinsztein as Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director, and Mr Chad Barton as permanent Chief Financial Officer after serving in that role on an interim basis.

Mr Rubinsztein is a seasoned technology executive with a track record of leading dynamic organisations in international environments and driving strategic transformations to create shareholder value. He has recently announced he will be stepping down as the CEO of Infomedia, an ASX listed company providing SaaS solutions to the global automotive industry.