VAU - Vault Minerals

[Moit]

Hi all, hi Mr Jeff.

I must have been one of those excited ones you were talking about. As i bought today.

I have had bids in for quiet some time now, but issues have kept popping there little heads up. Anyhow i bit the bullet, and may have paid top dollar, (so to speak), but as we all know RED is still extremely undervalued.

In time we will look back at this current price and realize how cheap 20 odd cents actually was...

OK Beatle now RED can go up, LOL.

 

[LostMyShirt]

Hi all, hi Mr Jeff.

I must have been one of those excited ones you were talking about. As i bought today.

I have had bids in for quiet some time now, but issues have kept popping there little heads up. Anyhow i bit the bullet, and may have paid top dollar, (so to speak), but as we all know RED is still extremely undervalued.

In time we will look back at this current price and realize how cheap 20 odd cents actually was...

OK Beatle now RED can go up, LOL.

Todays price action was not suprising. The Volume was below average and an equal match between the bulls and bears. I hope that this Doji today does not signal yet another reversal.

If we manage to close at or above 21cps there will be a fresh run to 24cps. However I would like to add that this Doji can easily be a continuation, and that the equal buying and selling pressure considering the prices purchased with little added to the bids could easily mean profits were taken by the short termers and bought up by the long termers. Providing I am at least partially correct, the long term sentiment would be a positive indicator for a steady incline.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

The buyer pressure is starting to grow again, I'm still quite optimistic. There's no reason for a pullback all else being equal, and Slovakia seems to have dealt with their problems, so no run to the USD anytime overly soon.

All looks good.

 

[LostMyShirt]

The buyer pressure is starting to grow again, I'm still quite optimistic. There's no reason for a pullback all else being equal, and Slovakia seems to have dealt with their problems, so no run to the USD anytime overly soon.

All looks good.

You don't think we will get a dip? Well, I'd preffer it that way, all in all. I'm just looking at the trend support and thinking to myself that it won't hold out. If it rises too high too fast then expect a correction and it won't be pretty, but not as bad as the earlier one, yikes!

I am only speculating as the daily is painting a too good to be true picture for me. Everything is bullish - plainly and simpley bullish. Perhaps we will see 24c much sooner than we anticipated and have a well established support in the under 24's.

Everyone who topped up at the sub 20 level, good on you all. Well played.

 

[Dougs Antiques]

IMO the markets have no logic ATM
RED has had a fine week so far so when the majority say it will continue I will tip a reversal back to 19 cents.
This isnt being pesimistic just a realist.
IMO the most that RED will see in the next 6 weeks is 24.5 cents (35 cents with a 30% discount based on a volatlie market with plenty of bargins out there, discounted a lot more than 30%)
My

 

[LostMyShirt]

IMO the markets have no logic ATM
RED has had a fine week so far so when the majority say it will continue I will tip a reversal back to 19 cents.
This isnt being pesimistic just a realist.
IMO the most that RED will see in the next 6 weeks is 24.5 cents (35 cents with a 30% discount based on a volatlie market with plenty of bargins out there, discounted a lot more than 30%)
My

You think that will be the most? I don't blame you at all - 24cps is the next resistance price and also 52 week high. However I believe we will see a jolt nearing November's Pour and I estimate the price to be 0.275cps based purely on momentum and daily price action coupled with the pour announcement being priced in.

Now you got me thinking, Doug. Take a short at 24cps? haha

 

[Starcraftmazter]

You don't think we will get a dip? Well, I'd preffer it that way, all in all. I'm just looking at the trend support and thinking to myself that it won't hold out. If it rises too high too fast then expect a correction and it won't be pretty, but not as bad as the earlier one, yikes!

Sorry just to clarify, I don't mean the stock will literally do nothing but head up for the next couple of months with some very minor falls, of course there could be corrections.

But unlike previously, at this stage, given the information that is out (and this course of course change in the blink of an eye), given my predictions, I do not see anything major, so as you say any future correction in the next 1-2 months, in my view, will not be very significant.


For the last few months, I have been trading RED pretty short term, sometimes a few hours, sometimes a few days. My latest buy was at the beginning of this month, and at this stage, I feel comfortable enough holding until some significant event happens or significant news comes in (negative), regardless of upwards/downward sp movements. In my view there will be far more upside in the coming 2 months (again, given nothing majorly bad happens - but I do not expect it to) than downside.


Of course I am still watching RED and gold prices and news like a hawk. Make no mistake, there are still risks. If the EU decide for Greece to default at the G20 summit next month for instance, that in my view has the potential to be quite bad (flight of euros going to the US, gold price tanks, markets tank - double wammy). But this is just one possibility. It could be that the EU decide for Greece to default, and bring out a massive package to recapitalise banks, ensure growth in the periphery and commit to greater fiscal unity in some way. This could be seen as very good. Of course they may just elect to do not much of anything apart from commit to recapitalising troubled banks only, which may well be enough.

That single event and decision is the only thing on my mind right now, overall gold is in an uptrend and nothing is going to change that - but depending on what happens with greece, the uptrend might suffer a setback, and/or the market might suffer a setback.

Apart from that, there is not much else that in my view will have a major impact on RED in the short term of the next 1-2 months.

I am still of the view that the market is in a dead cat bounce, but there's nothing to say it won't last into next year, taking RED with it, and keeping gold up.


This is just my analysis and opinions. I am confident well enough that RED has strong fundamentals and should be priced higher, and so I tend to try and see the overall picture of the global economy and markets in the hopes of figuring out how it will affect RED's sp. Same for all of my picks.

Lastly, if the ASX gets over 4300 with strength, I will also add to my position, as I consider that being a strong short-term signal.


Happy investing everyone, I do truly hope the long-term investors get a big present for Christmas.

 

[beatle]

Hi all RED followers,

I just wanted to commend Starcraftmazter, LostHISShirt (lol), etc for the ongoing commentary re the technical interpretation of RED and other related matters we should all consider going forward. Whilst the commentary tends to be more about the micro-moves of RED on a daily basis it certainly gives me more to think about each day, as I count down the days to first and continuing gold production by RED at Siana.

I guess it doesn't need for me to say (repeat) that I firmly believe that RED WILL go through a considerable re-rating in the coming weeks/months as the general market recognises Siana as a long life, low cost gold producter. Its such a shame that we are now in a time with considerable uncertainties in the general market, caused by events such as a possible Greek default (likely I would think) and the potential for ripple effects through the euro zone. I am heartened to see that the US dollar has once again begun to weaken, which suggests to me that the gold price should remain within its current band, and the potential to increase appreciably if US were (I would consider most likely) to announce QE3.

I'm also heartened with us approaching the festive season that gold is likely to rise, as it tends to do at this time - borrowing costs tend to increase appreciably caused by a higher demand for physical metal, and I can't see this christmas being anything different.

And whilst RED is not different to any stock in having its ups and downs, and this will remain in coming weeks, I'm very confident there will be more ups than downs, with an overall increase in RED share price (appreciably!).

 

[mr. jeff]

Gold - continuing it's comfortable move. Note the past over excitement.
Daily chart...sorry about the lack of timeline.

 

[LostMyShirt]

Hahaha Beatle - my nickname must bring you a nice laugh every now and then haha. No need to thank me, I look at RED daily with much interest.

Star - You make solid points mate, and I have heeded each and every one.

Jeff - Thanks for the chart, I am also looking at it with keen interested trying to gauge sentiment. Long term up is, well, up Though I know the rise is not infinite - Gold seems to be a superior currency at the moment.

 

[Dougs Antiques]

You think that will be the most? I don't blame you at all - 24cps is the next resistance price and also 52 week high. However I believe we will see a jolt nearing November's Pour and I estimate the price to be 0.275cps based purely on momentum and daily price action coupled with the pour announcement being priced in.

Now you got me thinking, Doug. Take a short at 24cps? haha

I think that RED will see a bad day some time in the next 2 weeks so today I sold 50% of my holdings and I lay in wait for the drop to happen.
If it doesnt happen im still happy with what im holding, and if it does happen I get to take advantage of it. Good or bad that was my decision
Just for the record without my trade today volume would have been below 1M.
Next week is another week.
Good luck to all RED holders

 

[Dougs Antiques]

That didnt quite read as it was intended (I was quite sleepy at the time).
Its obvious that RED will have a bad day but I expect to see a few consecutive bad days and thats when I will top back up.
The problem is going to be trying to identify the best buy.
If i miss out thats fine aswell as im happy with my holding.
DYOR

 

[LostMyShirt]

That didnt quite read as it was intended (I was quite sleepy at the time).
Its obvious that RED will have a bad day but I expect to see a few consecutive bad days and thats when I will top back up.
The problem is going to be trying to identify the best buy.
If i miss out thats fine aswell as im happy with my holding.
DYOR

Well there are always going to be dips to buy into imo - that trait has been established quite well on the initial run up to 24cps. I guess I don't really have the guts to sell high buy low with this stock, and I am worried about getting my order filled all the time. So what I've done is taken a heap of shares at the support of 0.165cps and sold them out at 0.20cps, but left a sufficient amount in there for long term outlook.

If you guys are able to buy in the dips, I applaud and envy you. I also wish you the utmost prosperity.

In my honest opinion, without wanting to get anyone here over excited - I believe the run up to 24cps will come sooner than later, and I am wishing for a support level to be established strongly in the low 20's.

 

[Dougs Antiques]

Well there are always going to be dips to buy into imo - that trait has been established quite well on the initial run up to 24cps. I guess I don't really have the guts to sell high buy low with this stock, and I am worried about getting my order filled all the time. So what I've done is taken a heap of shares at the support of 0.165cps and sold them out at 0.20cps, but left a sufficient amount in there for long term outlook.

If you guys are able to buy in the dips, I applaud and envy you. I also wish you the utmost prosperity.

In my honest opinion, without wanting to get anyone here over excited - I believe the run up to 24cps will come sooner than later, and I am wishing for a support level to be established strongly in the low 20's.

With all due respect (which I have a lot of with those involved in this thread) im happy with my current holdings.
In saying that I do wish to top up at a 1.5 to 2.0 cent drop....thats just what I do and it works for me most of the time.
I have about 50 companies from varied areas in my watch list and anyalise all of them daily but at the moment RED is the best bet on the charts, in saying this im not saying that there isnt better out there but RED has got more posatives than most and im just trying to make the most of it before early December.
Its always a gamble to sell off 50% of something that you know is a good thing, but I believe that ATM 21.5 cents is a major hurdle with market sentiment and 19 cents is a distinct probability in the next week or 2
Cheers
Doug

 

[LostMyShirt]

With all due respect (which I have a lot of with those involved in this thread) im happy with my current holdings.
In saying that I do wish to top up at a 1.5 to 2.0 cent drop....thats just what I do and it works for me most of the time.
I have about 50 companies from varied areas in my watch list and anyalise all of them daily but at the moment RED is the best bet on the charts, in saying this im not saying that there isnt better out there but RED has got more posatives than most and im just trying to make the most of it before early December.
Its always a gamble to sell off 50% of something that you know is a good thing, but I believe that ATM 21.5 cents is a major hurdle with market sentiment and 19 cents is a distinct probability in the next week or 2
Cheers
Doug

Yes, Doug; I applaud your strategy, perhaps it is something I should try. I did sell of a large quantity of original holdings but still have a stake in there of sufficient proportion.

There is basis to your theory, and I think you are correct. There will be a dip. There are those who are buying into those dips and making rake from these moves, which is another strategy I do appluad.

I'm taking a look at the RED5 Chart now, as I hunt for technical buys a lot of the day - I can see by scale it is outperforming the XAO, but this week has had a huge effect on RED5's stock, so the up move can be attributed, in my opinion, to market sentiment returning for an unknown term. I am hoping it is much more than that, so as to add some basis to the move being legitimate buyer interest in a decent company.

We have had three goes, and three failures trying to breach the 21cps resistence level, and it is becoming fairly solid.

All I know now is that the show will begin soon

 

[Starcraftmazter]

The above posts is precisely why I think there will be slightly more stability in the stock in the near term; because any downward movement will have a lot of buyers mobilising. This happened even on Friday.

This is why I think only major events or movements within the XAO will upset RED's uptrend. The next issue is trying to predict them.

Its such a shame that we are now in a time with considerable uncertainties in the general market, caused by events such as a possible Greek default (likely I would think) and the potential for ripple effects through the euro zone.

Pretty much my thoughts on the matter. This will definitely be more inconvenient than otherwise.

 

[beatle]

Hi All RED followers,

I've followed the common theme of your posts in recent days, seems like the general consensus is that RED is a good trading stock at the moment, with movements demonstrating its historical pullbacks to certain levels. And clearly that has been a good strategy in the past for you all, therefore it can't be faulted historically.

My one suggestion is that you consider not selling more than you would like to hold if there is a serious re-rating, as I firmly believe that there will be a time soon but obviously hard to pick what will trigger it, when RED goes for a bigger run UP. That should occur within the next month though IMO.

 

[LostMyShirt]

Hi All RED followers,

I've followed the common theme of your posts in recent days, seems like the general consensus is that RED is a good trading stock at the moment, with movements demonstrating its historical pullbacks to certain levels. And clearly that has been a good strategy in the past for you all, therefore it can't be faulted historically.

My one suggestion is that you consider not selling more than you would like to hold if there is a serious re-rating, as I firmly believe that there will be a time soon but obviously hard to pick what will trigger it, when RED goes for a bigger run UP. That should occur within the next month though IMO.

Wise words, Beatle. I had done just that.

I wanted to take on some profits, but knew quite well (Assumed rather) that there is going to be more movement in the stock, so in turn I kept a sufficient amount of holdings, though not as large as it once was.

Todays open was quite nice - it was good to see the 21cps level broken through, even if for only a moment it still is a good indicator. I will have a crack at the end of day chart once all is said and done.

 

[Moit]

Hi all RED club members.

It seems as though today will again be a day of low volume. Its like the buyers don't want to pay to much for the stock, or are waiting for an announcement before they pounce. But in saying that the sellers aren't give RED away to cheaply either.

Its a bit like butting heads at the moment, , just waiting for that inevitable gold pour. Just my thoughts...

Cheers Moit.

 

[LostMyShirt]

Hi all RED club members.

It seems as though today will again be a day of low volume. Its like the buyers don't want to pay to much for the stock, or are waiting for an announcement before they pounce. But in saying that the sellers aren't give RED away to cheaply either.

Its a bit like butting heads at the moment, , just waiting for that inevitable gold pour. Just my thoughts...

Cheers Moit.

I considered todays open quite good Moit - it tells a story that is worth hearing.

Low Volume with buying = Lack of supply at these prices. Then again, unloads at 21cps are rampant this morning, the buyers are getting their orders filled quick smart. If the selling continues into the bids on a notch lower then perhaps I'll rerate the day.

In my opinion this means we have a large amount of holdouts who are waiting for the Announcements etc. before they unleash the dragon on the stock.