Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

VAU - Vault Minerals

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Mgm1a, I'm sad to hear of your decision to sell out (presumably you still hold around 10% of your previous investment?), it clearly must have been a big decision for you to make.

I do understand your concerns and I confirm that as soon as I became aware of the incidents I had communications with CJ, GE and CFO in Perth. It was as a result of those discussions, plus my most recent visit to site that has kept me comfortable that RED's situation is not at all similar to those Japanese groups operating the nickel operation at Taganito. In the case of RED it has established programs and processes to ensure that the local communities within the Siana area are very well catered for in terms of employment opportunities as well as community based programs for health, education, water and micro finance. During both the construction phase as well as the operations phase RED has agreed certain criteria to ensure that the local community provides a majority of labour, and in fact there are currently 4 females employed as truck drivers onsite - all contractors must comply with those employment arrangements.

In fact when I was onsite recently I visited such a family within the local community (not directly employed by the company) and it was clear that RED (or actually Greenstone as it is referred to onsite, being the Philippine subsidiary) is held in very high regard. The development has reinvigorated an area that was substantially suffering after mining was ceased at the end of 1989, and there has been a flow on far beyond those directly involved with the operation.
 
My valuation of RED shares is 18c at the moment.

A lot of unknowns out there and a very uncertain market.
There are a lot of stocks trading at these great discounts at the moment.
Pun intended. Red looks good at the moment but there are IF's.

Are we going to see any exploration and expansion outside of Siana? I know it has been said the focus is on achieving production from Siana, but I am sure that management knows the next direction for the company...anyone ?
Mapawa sounds less prospective than a lot of ground out there.

What will they do with the gold they produce? Just build cash, gold banking....??
Once production is steady and proven, it could get very quiet (excepting a takeover) otherwise.

(I do not write this to antagonize or inflame, I hold and will continue to do so, plus it appears that gold will be favoured for a while yet, so prospects are good for RED)
 
mgm1a said:
I have rechecked valuation, 33c using conservative numbers.
My research notes - holders will know, but may be useful for new comers, updated at:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/11l7pS_GyI-iiif3f_78QEbeOUtvt9WKfe0SFfiS8oEM/edit?hl=en_GB
Click to expand...

i very much doubt there will be any troubel with rebels, after hiting 3 other mines philippine authority's will now be on the hunt, not to mention local employed now red5 mine workers wont want there income jeopardized ,it will be all eyes out for trouble makers......
 
Re: Dougs Antiques, I do not believe that RED can reach your SP projection in the current bear market. However a very strong and sharp gold rally could take us a fair way there in my view.

jancha said:
Selling gold to bailout Europe

There’s been quite a few worst-case scenarios presented for the European debt crisis, but here’s one gold bugs will not like, says Christopher Georgopoulos on Minyanville. Credit default swap levels are telling us there is an almost certainty that Greece will default. There will come a point when the Greeks have sold and cut everything possible and its people will “scream for an exit” from the eurozone. Global markets are pricing in this possibility, but not the much more serious repercussions it will cause. A Greek default would have a domino effect hitting Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain requiring trillions of bailout money that simply isn’t there. Here’s where gold comes in. A default would essentially bankrupt the European Central Bank and Germany would be asked to top up liquidity. The only readily available source is Germany’s 3400 tons of gold they have in reserves. Central bank sales of gold on this scale will send gold significantly lower with little prospect of a recovery anytime soon.

Any comments as it would effect RED sp? This could explain the sell off a few weeks back.
Click to expand...

I'm quite familiar with the EU situation and other related matters; if you think that Germany will consider selling even 1% of their gold to help the PIIGS, then you are incorrect. I would bet any amount of money on this.

Broadly speaking, no central bank of any country is going to be selling gold anytime soon. There is a very real chance that fiat currency will either collapse altogether or undergo significant inflation in the medium term, at which point national gold reserves are going to become incredibly important.

No country, no matter how desperate is going to exchange any amount of gold for paper money anytime soon.

A lot of people have grown up and lived most of their lives with fiat currency, they do not understand that the current iteration thereof is a mere less than 40 year old experiment which was rushed into the world's financial system in panic as a result of a crisis. Gold has never been more valuable to hold.

But even if anyone was to give up gold, it would never be exchanged on the open market - rather it would merely be privately exchanged for the liabilities of the seller.
 
Hi all, RED is looking good and strong atm, sellers are being tight (rising by 2 ticks on low volume yesterday....reversal from friday)
Gold is into a good rally.
S&P 500 is up by 3.41% overnight.
Today has the formula to be a real pearler and head closer to my monthly target of 22c to 23c
Good luck to all RED holders
I hold
DYOR
 
Here is a chart to reinforce my veiws:
red 11 10.JPG
Cheers
 
DougsAntiques, great overnight trading by the US markets plus gold strengthening are both great signs for the overall ASX and RED, but RED remains highly discounted to NPV on any basis - and whilst I consider Mgm1a's valuation conservative it certainly goes some way to suggest that RED has a long way to go in the next couple of months. His commentary and general analysis was a very good summary.

Mr Jeff, not sure on what basis you pass judgement of valuation, clearly its not related to fundamental analysis and cash flow valuation, nor on a P/E and EPS basis? On the former RED remains discounted from a valuation around 30 - 40 cents per share, depending upon what gold prices you want to use longer term, and on a latter basis it could trade at 60 - 70 cents per share. And given that most longer term lower cost gold companies trade at a premium to fundamental value, once in gold production RED could easily move above 40 cents per share!

Remember we are now only about 6 weeks from first production, thus unless there is a huge drop out in gold price or share prices in the general market RED certainly will break through its bogey price of 24 cents this time IMO.
 
Hi all RED club members.

Beatle you are absolutely right about Mgmla and his commentary on RED. In my opinion it was nothing short of brilliant. What i cant understand, is why he would write such a detailed report and then sell out 90% of his stock a couple of days later. Especially so close to game time. I know circumstances change i just cant understand why... It must have been a very difficult decision to make as i know how emotionally involved i am.

What i really want to know is, with six or so weeks to go, when is the big race about to start. I'm guessing the monthly construction update or that inevitable commissioning date..

But anyhow i have been with RED just shy of 2 years now and this is what i / we, have all been waiting for. I have never sold a single share and definitely not about to start.. RED is looking great for a big run up imo. Go RED:2twocents
 
Looking at the 6 Month Daily for RED; I see a few things that are in my view positive.

The cross of the MACD pointing up towards the Zero point average is a decent enough buy signal - though skeptical considering the current price, and backed up by the stochastic indicator toping out into the oversold region.

The volume today was average, which is a good thing coupling in the price movement. I believe this is showing me that RED's securities onthe market are back into the same momentum that was experienced from July to early September. Another factor backing up my thoughts is the return of the buy:sell ratio of an approximate 2:1.

Tomorrows action is going to be internesting. We are curently at an old resistence level experienced on the 16th Sept to the 21st. If we break out of this one, then a run up to 24c is not going to be a far fetched analysis. There should be some profit taking this week, and a very slight retrace considering the stochastic indicator has to dip at some point, before the run up to break resistence of 21c. Stochastics don't have to dip, and if it doesnt and continues at this rate, the run up to 24c will almost be a vertical line! Hey, why not? I wouldn't complain...
 
Here are my veiws from current charts.
Today was a good day as predicted (probably better than good from a traders point of veiw)
Today we saw a fair gain with a GAP UP on HIGHER VOLUME with the MACD confirming all of the above.
The GAP UP along with HIGHER VOLUME will trigger a BUY signal with particular searches by traders using metastock etc (only if it fits the criteria) which i know a lot of traders do search for (me included).
With this knoledge in hand I would expect a strong open tomorrow as long as gold holds up overnight.
RED 11 10 2.JPG
My :2twocents
I hold
DYOR
 
I would have liked you to be correct, Doug - but the matter remained unheeded of the second level resistance tested at 21c.

I expected a consolidation today - it would have been nieve to assume the sp would move up in a straight line considering the momentum displayed on the initial run up to 24c.

All indicators are looking good and I do expct a breach of the 21c bracket, hopefully this week but am skeptical of a re-test of the 165c support level.
 
HI Moit, I agree with your sentiment re RED and am glad to see you are also enjoying the move back up as we both expect it should. When it moves to tackle that resistance level of 24 cents (forget the 21/22 cents level IMO thats not a big issue) is a matter of time, but more in terms of weeks than months now - we are in the final throes of completing plant construction prior to commisssioning and the impending first gold pour, likely within the next 6 weeks.

With regard to the latest photos on the RED website (thanks for letting us know they are now posted Geez) I should point out that the pit dewatering is now at a stage where they are awaiting for the plant commissioning - the last dregs of this more slurry-like water is being used for the initial wet commissioning tests and may provide a skeric of gold in the process.

I understand that both the Chairman and MD have just begun a London/North American roadshow, and we should see the results of that with trading in the coming week hopefully. Its good timing for that trip as later this month the commissioning is likely to commence, as well as decisions being made re any variations to the initial mining plan and reserves as a result of the upgraded resource recently announced, and also the Quarterly Report is due as well.

And then in November we can expect news to build up with the expected startup of gold production, and of course the AGM late November. Then hopefully a formal mine opening onsite at Siana in early December. So many things to look forward to...
 
LostMyShirt said:
I would have liked you to be correct, Doug - but the matter remained unheeded of the second level resistance tested at 21c.

I expected a consolidation today - it would have been nieve to assume the sp would move up in a straight line considering the momentum displayed on the initial run up to 24c.

All indicators are looking good and I do expct a breach of the 21c bracket, hopefully this week but am skeptical of a re-test of the 165c support level.
Click to expand...

WOW how wrong was I but a half decent bounce back up this afternoon was good to see.
Obviously profit takers as you predicted.
On open I considered selling at 20 cents to rebuy at 19 cents or less today but I didnt in fear of a rebound late morning, all in all im glad that I didnt take the risk.
Well it seems like the profit takers have taken their profit.
I havent looked at any charts yet today as im still at work in the shop so I will have a good hard look at it all tonight.
Beatle there is a lot of news on the agenda and I think thate late this month to early next month will be awsome for RED holders.
Cheers
DYOR
 
The pullback was very expected, momentum completely tried up at the end of tuesday, and trades at the last price for tuesday were very low volume - RED just got a little bit ahead of itself for that day. I surely hope nobody sold yesterday (wednesday)!
 
Starcraftmazter said:
The pullback was very expected, momentum completely tried up at the end of tuesday, and trades at the last price for tuesday were very low volume - RED just got a little bit ahead of itself for that day. I surely hope nobody sold yesterday (wednesday)!
Click to expand...

I agree. I expected a bit of consolidation yesterday. I thought it would drop more then just half a cent tho. I'm expecting RED to push to 22 cents today.
 
Jah008, I agree that from a trading point of view it looks like the pullback seemed to be cut short, and I wouldn't mind betting that the current roadshow, starting in London yesterday and then moving on to North America will restrict any significant pullbacks in the coming week - I suggest you don't consider trying to make a 0.5-1.0 cent turn Doug cos you might find yourself outside looking in!

All aboard, the train is about to leave the station (to quote someone famous like Confucious - I think it was ... Fastbuck, lol).

Go RED UPPPP
 
Typically when a the excitement gets very serious the pro's know to start selling to those that are excited.

This is why I stated that when the shares were 18c I consider them to be worth 18c, to try and remind people that you cannot sell a share for 34c just because it is worth it - it does certainly seem undervalued, I value the production of expected around 85kOz in a riskier environment to be worth around 330M market cap without further significant exploration upside. Work that out yourself, I know there may be false assumptions, it is much easier to take a profit in a rising market.

Hence why I am looking beyond the mine opening for the future extension of RED's great recent efforts in getting this mine open and producing. Congratulations for that effort and result (may be early but most likely won't need to eat my words).
I don't want to see RED place so much emphasis on Siana that when they achieve first pour and then steady state, there is no further excitement! So fill us in - anyone who has researched - what are plans past the end of this year?

I only post this to try and develop the discussion, not to make anyone sell. I hold and am not looking to exit.
One further positive observation, the POG broke a key level in my view last night and is making higher highs, so it looks as though this may continue the current tone.
 
mr. jeff said:
My valuation of RED shares is 18c at the moment.
Click to expand...

Thanks Mr Jeff, I raised the question of you only to understand how you made that valuation. But I guess we are mixing the words "valuation" with "worth", and in your last post you are quite right, that at the moment you can't get 34 cents for RED regardless of what the underlying fundamental value is. I suggest that once the project is producing gold, thus the commissioning/operations risk is removed/reduced we should see RED move closer towards that value. And by the way, I haven't seen any significant valuation placed on any of RED's other exploration assets, italmost completely relates to Siana, as a significant gold producer. Cash after capital expenditure will be just over 1 cents per share prior to cash flows from gold sales.

Regarding RED's exploration, Mapawa has been put on the sidelines, personally I think its a combination of wanting to put more focus back on the resources/reserves about Siana to resolve the future mine plan and scheduling, plus the last Mapawa holes didn't get the hits that were hoped for. Thus it will require more investigative work prior to getting back into the program - remember that RED did point out that the locus of mineralisation at Mapawa may well be deeper than first thought, although the first holes seems to have been lost in that thinking as the mineralisation started not too deep and with long intercepts.

I am excited by some of the other exploration targets about both Siana and Mapawa MPSA's that have had scant exploration work to date (recall the last surface sampling at Mapawa that demonstrated lots of significant assay results of gold plus base metals). And once the production starts with large positive cash flows monthly we can expect lots of work and results coming forth. In addition, who knows what RED might do with the other excess cash ...

As to your comments about the future gold price, not sure how it looks like technically, but its looking good at the moment based on the fact that the US market is now starting to get back on the bandwagon of assuming the economy needs more quantitative easing, thus US$ is weakening and a possibility of QE3 being announced soon.
 
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