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VAU - Vault Minerals

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Thanks for the update Anderbond. I hope they can meet the proposed timetable, as further delays will just reinforce the market view of the company...ie great assets but uncertainty about management capability. And I really wish they paid even a little attention to PR as the market has been flying blind for some time now...some guidance would do wonders.
 
some big volumes last couple of days compare to norm. anyone have any ideas bout this? no recent announcements eaither
 
They look like internal portfolio put-throughs...ie a large fund re-organising weightings within various funds. That was certainly the case with the bulk of the volume yesterday. As Anderbond has stated, RED management look as though they'll take their own sweet time in keeping the general market informed. It's often easier to call them direct, which to me, is a totally bizarre way of running a company.
 
Hi Guys, Things have settled back down following last weeks large cross transactions.
SP seems to be following market and gold price to some extent as one might expect.
Drilling report for Mapawa due any day now. Coy has said "four completed holes back but results need to be put in context", but I am unable to throw any light on whether this is a positive or a negative. Time will tell I suppose. Quarterly report also due soon.
Looking forward to seeing SP move forward on Siana fundamentals at least. HC contributors remain mostly negative or somewhat sceptical towards management. Can't really understand why....if it was so bad how come they have successfully (and easily) raised capital from some big players. Approx 60% of stock in institutional hands must say something, surely. I acknowledge dilution effect but we have all subsequently had the opportunity to top up at issue or close to issue prices each time. Good luck to all!
I will hold on and look forward to attending gold pour in early May. AB
 
C'mon Anderbond! Of course holders must be negative towards management!! All the general public have to go on are quarterly reports, at best!! A great way to promote what could be an exciting story!!...and as far as the last capital raising is concerned, Casimir (who?) were able to get oversubscriptions because gold was running and the offering was at a healthy discount to the market. Sorry, but I for one don't share your seeming disregard for the dilution foisted on long-standing holders, unnecessarily in my view, due to misjudgement by management. You may not remember, but the raising in late 2009 was meant to be supplemented by a small debt raising...this of course did not happen, and we were diluted even further by the larger than necessary equity raising just completed. I look at other explorer/cum/producers and I must say, the opportunity cost of maintaining my RED position becomes more marked each day. I don't want to be another HC naysayer but, I can see where they're comi9ng from!!
 
Hi Hugh,I hear your frustrations with management, so far they have only had results from 3 deep holes and 6 shallow ones over the past 12 months for Mapawa.Not much of a promotion for a Company with 100 mio in cash.I think the large instros are firmly in control with the trading patterns and price will remain under pressure untill shortly before first gold pour.Its a waiting game & i hope i am wrong about the timeframe.
 
Hi Guys, drilling report for Mapawa should be imminent, also quarterly report due very soon. Understand CJ has been in Phils over weekend so news very soon. Hard to pump out news if there is nothing much to say or things are moving but not complete. Mine building time is always a news lull period. Holdups with Mapawa assay results haven't helped plus some problems in drilling. I agree it is frustrating. Hugh, in regards to shareholder disenchantment, my view is that if management was not up to it they would not have successfully managed to get so much smart money on board. In terms of whether it was needed, or not....I leave that to the judgement of the management as they have the task of getting the project up and producing. Don't forget there were conditions precedent for the latest gold loan which could derail this if not met. I understand there have been concerns surrounding the foreign ownership corporate structure, and while the Red/Greenstone structure is common in the Phils, it does not mean a lender will go along with things. Going back to earlier last year, no one was happy with the DB finance offer either. My view is that management have done a great job ensuring sufficient funds are on hand to get Siana producing, but others will have their own view. AB
 
Hi Red Holders.Note tonights substancial holdings from Bank of America (Merrill Lynch)since 24/10/2010 increased holding from 115.1 mio shares to 183.4 mio shares .This is another big move just before a long period of hearing nothing from management since AGM on 23rd Nov 10. I hope this is the start of a re-rating about to occure as RED gets nearer to production currently due April/May this year.
 
Hi Mardo and Red holders, yes BOA and associated entities have continued to increase their holdings by the looks of it. As said previously, as there is a large anount of smart money on board, it augurs well for the future SP and I believe underlines that we have a strong management team. Otherwise why would the insto's bother as they have an incredible range of opportunities open to them, and to my knowledge assessing the management team is very high on their list of must haves. So it is just a time thing imo. But like others, on some days I feel just a tad jaded and wish for more news. That can sometimes mean it is time to study the red sentiment in the bottom of the glass(lol).AB:cool:
 
I think you guys are seeing only half the picture -there were 2 notices in Nov. They already held 165m and lent out 54m giving them a new total of 111.

So they have increased 18m net (183-165) from then till now, not 72m (183-111)

I can think of 3 possibilities:

1.) Interestingly the Nov.2010 50m was just before the AGM - it could be that a party borrowed the 50m for voting purposes to the resolutions in the AGM?

2.) Or the shares could have been lent out for the purpose of short selling and have now been returned? However I checked ASIC records and there was very little short selling in Oct, Nov and none in December.

3.) They could also have been assigned over to a CFD provider who wanted to have a (borrowed) hedged position of a certain size while providing RED 5 as a stock to trade on their platform.

Anyway it still augurs well that they haven't permanently disposed of them
 
Hi RED members, I hope you all had a great Xmas/New Year. I had an extended break as I contracted a lung infection during my holiday which meant i was stuck in confinement for a while and told to rest - not the sort of thing recommended for anyone believe me!

From my perusal of the latest posts clearly there has been a change of overall sentiment to the view taken on RED, to the negative, and with little effort made by RED I can understand why - but of course since we are now in the last days of Jan we can expect a Quarterly out soon - lucky there is requirement to report each quarter otherwise we wouldn't ever know a thing officially!

I have spoken with my mate who was on site just prior to Xmas, and he assures me that the project remains on track, in an overall sense - he believed at that time due to weather in the general area (heavy rains) there was likely to be slippage of some weeks so that final construction completion was likely to be pushed back until May or thereabouts. If that happens then we are less than 4 months away from commissioning and first gold pour! When he was onsite they were putting the finishing touches to the all weather main access road which is critical to get the bigger offsite components safely onsite. He assured me that the project looked like it was being managed well with experienced staff both onsite and in their Manila office, and very impressively monitored by various systems established for the project - at that time it appeared the only cost over-runs of significance were the decision to acquire a back up power unit and the changeover of the mill, those items likely to increase overall cost by a couple of million, which in the context of the total cost was insignificant.

Interestingly my mate believed, but he couldn't confirm it, that the plant seemed to be over-engineered in some respects and that might end up resulting in an increase in throughput, but suggested that might just be his misunderstanding, but it could also lead to higher gold production, sooner than expected!

The management apparently are making some variations to the pit design which will allow a slight increase in gold production by inclusion of some lower grade ore, and this design allows for an alternative entry/exit ramp to the pit, a good safety feature that will also ensure better grade control and pit scheduling can be achieved.

In regards to Mapawa it seems that the only available laboratory in manila has been inundated with work, and therefore assay turnaround has climbed to an unacceptable 7 weeks or more. This has hampered RED as they need to get far quicker turnaround feedback before planning any deeper drillholes, thus there was some thoughts to either curtailing the deeper drilling until later or some other alternatives. My mate was not sure how that would be played out as the decisions in this regard had not been made.

I guess we can hope now that RED confirms it remains obstensibly on schedule for commissioning of the Siana plant in May. Most importantly though, it needs to be confirmed that the project remains on track and will be a significant gold producer in its own right by mid 2011.

Now RED please start with your PR!!!
 
Welcome back Beatle and hope you have a most prosperous 2011 (along with us all!). Sorry to hear of your illness and I hope you are now 100% again. Your friend's comments completely accord with the information I have had back from management so there is consistency. Interesting about the possible over engineering going on...........we must not lose sight of the several other prospects apart from Mapawa. I have also heard there were some equipment problems with one of the drilling rigs.
I am a little undecided on the lack of news flow as the mine build time tends to be a period of less news rather than more and this has been compounded by the holdups in the assay reports for Mapawa. Anyway, we will hear more very soon. There has been a further issue that was discussed last year in respect to the conditions precedent for the gold loan, so I expect we may hear more on this too.I remain convinced that we have a strong conservative management team who will deliver. AB
 
anderbond said:
Welcome back Beatle and hope you have a most prosperous 2011 (along with us all!). Sorry to hear of your illness and I hope you are now 100% again. Your friend's comments completely accord with the information I have had back from management so there is consistency. Interesting about the possible over engineering going on...........we must not lose sight of the several other prospects apart from Mapawa. I have also heard there were some equipment problems with one of the drilling rigs.
I am a little undecided on the lack of news flow as the mine build time tends to be a period of less news rather than more and this has been compounded by the holdups in the assay reports for Mapawa. Anyway, we will hear more very soon. There has been a further issue that was discussed last year in respect to the conditions precedent for the gold loan, so I expect we may hear more on this too.I remain convinced that we have a strong conservative management team who will deliver. AB
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Hi Anderbond, thanks for your kind words (the illness is better but still recovering actually!), lets hope that 2011 brings great prosperity to us all through RED esp!

Interesting point you raise about the gold loan, in fact i didn't touch on it yesterday but my mate did make some comments about the loan previously - i have asked him again and he told me that at the time they were talking (ie pre-Xmas) ALL the CP's had been met but the issue was more whether RED wanted to draw it down at that time! (In other words they were not pressing for cash at that time - obviously because they already had the equity contribution). I guess RED has some internal reasons not to take it up yet, but as you say, its probably going to be made clearer when the quarterly hits.
With regard to the drilling rig, that must be more recent as all were working when my mate left site.

Shame about the gold price coming off, that will test the nerves of weaker holders, but since my valuation suggests RED is also trading around 50% of Siana value its still good value IF RED finally get on with the PR rather than holding back!
 
Finally the quarterly is out, but it doesn't add so much more to our knowledge apart from the fact that onsite rain is hampering the onsite works, and obviously dewatering has also been affected by the need to manage off-site water through the local drainage.

I'm not sure if it is well understood that a lot of the steel work fabrication and other work is undertaken both in Manila and Cebu, where the rain is not affecting progress. Thus whilst the onsite works are slowed there is progress elsewhere, and this will assist in ensuring that delays to the commissioning are being kept to a minimum, but management have now conceded that a delay of unknown weeks is expected due to the rain.

Mapawa progress drill results are frustrating indeed, and there clearly has not been satisfactory progress to assess the potential size of the project although there appears to be a recognition that a larger percentage of the deposit may in fact be located at depth - this requires considerable drilling of deeper holes and its amazing to think that drill rod availability is affecting that progress! I'm not sure if this is reflective of an industry wide scarcity of drill rods or related to the drilling contractor involved.

Its frustrating to think that progress has been slow over the past few months but its now just a stones throw from completion so I certainly want to be around when the gold is finally poured!
 
Hi Beatle, I agree with your assessment of things. Obviously the gold loan issues were resolved as you suggested, and interesting that they are re-negotiating certain borrowing arrangements. The shortage of drilling rods has obviously escalated as a problem as I was aware this was affecting rig no.4, but appears to be restricting drilling across the board. As you say hard to know if it is a local contractor issue (in which case it should be resolved fairly quickly) or a more widespread industry problem. My guess is the latter. Oh well, there goes the shopping expedition in Greenbelt that I promised to someone, at least until another occasion. I will send her to Japan for the mid year sales instead(lol). I hope the report calms a few investors who have been letting their paranoia get on top of them. It would be great to see the SP make some more headway. Of course, a more steady (positive)news flow might help in this regard.AB:cool:
 
Hi all, welcome back Beatle, glad you made it thro Christmas. Just wondered from the report, could they be considering not using the gold prepay and if so are they not liable for any cost? Seemed at the time that the prepay would cost going on for 40 million for 25 mil credit, so could be a big benefit on earnings for the early years if the money is not used? That would be a good thing after the taking of extra funds in cr. At least shareholders would have the equity rather than giving away the cash to finance provider?
 
Hi Andrew and thanks. Yes I made it through Xmas but only by the skin of my teeth!

Interesting point you raise about the debt, and of course no one will know the answer to those questions other than those involved in the original agreement, but I'm not sure if the original debt (and thus the agreement) was ever considered to be a standby facility thus the agreement probably doesn't cover a restructuring of it to include a standby component which would usually have a lesser cost associated with it.

All I would comment on is that I am comforted that RED have had no need to draw down any debt funds to date, and from my reading of the report RED probably won't need to draw down any of the debt facility, or if they do it certainly is unlikely to be a significant amount of the total amount offered - the slight increase to capex with the new mill and the power plant do not add more than a couple of million to the overall costs.

Hi Anderbond, with regard to the report steadying some of the investors nerves, I agree that as a total status report it does give one a sense that its a development going along as planned and scheduled apart from the rain, which in the overall context will only delay the development for a matter of weeks, but nothing of significance (having waited for how many years now, I am getting excited!). I still stick to my original view that once it gets close to commissioning, say the last month if not before, there is going to be a strong interest shown in RED by serious investors (such as the bigger insto's already on the register, JP Morgan, Baker Steel, Matthews etc) that will make RED a standout - that will be the time we see a break out in the price above its current trading range. Then maybe your someone can go to paris for summer rather than japan, lol.
 
Good to see the RED price up even without any news being offered, other than the gold price up and overseas markets on the move up again!

I would like to think that these major insto's on board start doing the hard yards and mopping up the weak sellers now, so that when the project is ready to produce gold in a few months time RED's share price goes up with just strong hands on board, that way we will get much more lift by forcing buyers pay a premium for all our hard earned frustrations of the past!

Go RED go (UP!)
 
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