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VAU - Vault Minerals

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Hi Beatle thanks for that
Dont know if this is relevant to this thread or not?
Australian Mining company Red 5 Limited based in Perth and Manila is working with iprint on two exciting projects. A new corporate video which includes a fly over and also a redesigned website to update the Sianna site progress.
 
Good to see RED polishing its brand image. Obviously their marketing budget just received a bit of a budget increase.......
 
Agreed Hurricane, and here's hoping that RED's marketing edge will be to say they are:
In gold production (in about 6 months time) ramping up to 100,000 oz pa, with a comment of it coming in under budget and on time, as a long life, low cost producer!

The early trading in RED makes me thankful that you can't trade in fractions of a share - at least we can predict when that Bot has finished its cycle after it voraciously chomps through that last 1 share trade (Lol).
 
Hi all, I seek some assistance from anyone who maybe was looking in detail of the trading activity through the course of today, Wednesday, for RED. I noticed early on in the session there was a Bid of 3.0 million shares, and this remained intact for a great deal of the session that I was watching, and then unfortunately I had to go out and do something constructive (ooohhh), then missed a vital part of the trading including the close. When I finally got back I noticed that the 3.0 million Bid had gone, but not sure if it was completely taken out or whether it was withdrawn from the Bid side. Did anyone see what happened to it, was it taken out?

For me, that strong Bid was an exciting change to trading, as it suggests to me that someone is wanting to put a bit of pressure on the sellers, but not sure whether it might still be lurking out there for another day. I hope it still is out there of course, as it might mean that some impatient hoarder is getting impatient with the trading.
 
Hi there beatle, Yes that 3m change surprised me too. Had a buy of another 60k. in line thinking I was at the end of the queue. And hey presto bid went through from memory leaving 8400 to be filled. I cannot work that out.

I thank you and all the other learned people here for all your most informative posts. I has been the one of the most educating threads I have read here on ASF and I give my thanks to you all.
 
Hi all
Re the mystery 3mil bid and especially the buy by buckfont going thro- I also noticed the bot trading and I believe a similar large bid has been inplace then removed from just below the offer price on the last few days. With a previous company I have placed a buy at what I thought was the back of the queue only to have it filled, and the large buy that was infrint of me still there. This looks to me like someone selling down a large parcel probably from the 17c issue. Maybe they have bot traded to themselves to push the price up to 21c on what appears to be good volume( we have no way of knowing who was buying and selling 3 million upwards over last few days?) thereby creating their own chart almost. The final straw is the trade going thro from what appeared to be the back of the queue. That and the removal of the large buys fromthe stack onthe last couple of days at 3 pm ish seems very suspicious. Is what I'm suggesting feasible as I'm still learning the tricks played by instos. Someone seems to be holding things at around 21c with large block bids and offers, churning to themselves with bots, and selling to real buyers whenever they get sucked into the back of the buy bid. Please tell me this is not possible and I'm being paranoid
 
Many thanks Buckfont and Andrewk65.

So its hard to confirm but it appears that the 3 million Bid didn't go through as a trade despite it being close to the front of the queue.

To (half) answer your concerns, theoretically the only way someone can "jump" the queue with the trading these days if there is a cross trade where a trade occurs within the same broking house, that way it has right to trade in front of the queue, otherwise it must work its way to the front of the queue. IF the trade has moved in front of you in the queue then IT MUST be a crossing and that will be confirmed as a cross trade on the share trading history.

I have noticed that with the introduction of Bot trading and computerised trading patterns, that it seems the Bot is able to know instanteously when the market opens or closes, thus its possible to lose out if you think you can out-trade the Bot in getting a cheaper buy or a higher sell, its simply not possible to beat them at that game from what I have observed. I am wary of the Bots from a pure trading perspective, it does seem to me its not a complete level trading environment at all. But knowing that means you best not try to outsmart them!

I don't know about them putting in "dummy" bids though, which I think you are referring to Andrew - if they get hit by a genuine seller, there is no way that they can predict when a sell like that is about to hit them, thus I have no doubt that the 3 million bid was genuine, I just don't know if it was consumed today or if it was pulled prior to the end of trading. And I can confirm right at the end of the trading today, it appeared that there was going to be a big overhang of sellers at 21.0 cents on the close, with something like 800,000 offering at 21.0 cents and around 100,000 Bid at 21.0 cents but instanteously at 16.10 (or close to that) a huge bid at 800,000 odd arrived to steal the whole lot on offer at the close! Thus in my mind there is no doubt someone (insto) was a big buyer in that close, and maybe it was also a big seller (insto?) who was the seller, but it was not a crossing, it was a genuine buy and sell from one broker to another broker.
 
Hi all RED club members. Beatle i was about to put a bid in yesterday around lunch time i believe, for 21 cents. I thought ill just give it a minute and see what happens. (knowing you shouldn't really buy till the end of the day), 5 minutes later i come back and seen the 3 million. I thought bugger, cause id have to either wait a long time to buy more, or just buy at 21.5. At the same time i was also very excited. I thought this is going to hammer. There were actually at one stage 13 million to buy, against 3.9 million to sell. That only means one thing to me. So i bought at 21.5...
What i did notice that the 3 mill did not jump the queue. Toward the end of the day about 3.50 i think, the remaining 2.7 or 2.8 mill were pulled. 2 or 3 hundred had been taken out. It all boiled down to the last 2 minutes, (as it does with RED), at 4.08 pm when the 800 k to sell and the 880 k to buy appeared. If you watched it closely, there was only 5k in it from it going to 21.5 for end of day finish. If the buyer had 885 k it would have ended higher. But it just goes to show WHO is in control here, certainly not us LOL !!!
Ill be watching intently today as well if you wish for another commentary tomorrow, LOL !!!
Lets hope for a good day, despite the recent drop in gold price. Although i believe that with REDS trading activity, market sentiments have very little to do with RED at the moment. The instos are doing there thing. So Go RED Go !!!
 
Thanks Moit, a most informative post indeed - you have confirmed a couple of things of significance from my point of view:

1. The 3 million Bid must have been genuine if some of it was consumed, even a small part of it, it means they were prepared to be taken out if a BIgger player wanted out (say a smaller insto getting out which could always be the case with so many instos in the stock) - but obviously no one took much of it other than smaller traders/investors.

2. The close you were referring to, of just a small difference between the Bid and Offer at 16.10 despite it being a relatively large sale to go through always seems to favour the mischievous Bot's point of view! On other stocks you have an even chance of winning at the Open or Close, Buy or Sell, but on RED it seems you have virtually no chance! (Whatever it wants it seems to achieve, so no point trying to beat it at the Open or Close IMO).

Moit I'm sure that 21.5 cent purchase will make it into the Green in coming days if that mysterious Bidder finally relents as stock dries up (I darn hope it dries up, lol!).
 
Hi again
Just curious on the mechanics of instos and bot buying selling. It appears you consider the three million bid genuine because 2-300 thou were taken out. Is it possible that an insto trying to manipulate price could put the large bid in below to give the buyers confidence, then churn or even sell to themselves on market some way so it appears trades are going through. If they sell to themselves somehow indirectly via 2 brokers or however it works their actual holding would only change when a genuine buyer or seller takes a bite. I believe that if they want the bid can be removed and replaced in an instant to allow genuine buyer/ seller to move thro queue. I have definitely seen a buy of my own get filled from the back of the bid queue while the bids that were in front still show in the stack( using comsec iress!) haven't seen this on red but I have seen it. All the talk of here we go, hold on, instos will buy up etc seems to be exactly what they are trying to create by placing the large bids. I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory but realistically do we believe the new 17c instos are all going to hold well into the 30 c area?
 
Hi Beatle and RED club members. Couple of interesting points you make. I believe the buy for the 3 mill was genuine and think it could have even been the same bloke topping up with the 880 000k at 4.10. imo.
As for my last parcel at 21.5 cents. It didn't do to much to my average as i was only topping up and thankfully is a mile in the GREEN.
But isn't it funny though, we, as true RED club members still to this day continue to top up, even at current prices. Thats dedication, thats believing in a company. I don't think i could ever have enough, though my wife would tell you differently. lol.
One last thing, a couple of big XTS in 1 and 2 million dollar lots today. I wonder... Anyhow Go RED Go !!!
 
andrewk65 said:
Hi again
Just curious on the mechanics of instos and bot buying selling. It appears you consider the three million bid genuine because 2-300 thou were taken out. Is it possible that an insto trying to manipulate price could put the large bid in below to give the buyers confidence, then churn or even sell to themselves on market some way so it appears trades are going through. If they sell to themselves somehow indirectly via 2 brokers or however it works their actual holding would only change when a genuine buyer or seller takes a bite. I believe that if they want the bid can be removed and replaced in an instant to allow genuine buyer/ seller to move thro queue. I have definitely seen a buy of my own get filled from the back of the bid queue while the bids that were in front still show in the stack( using comsec iress!) haven't seen this on red but I have seen it. All the talk of here we go, hold on, instos will buy up etc seems to be exactly what they are trying to create by placing the large bids. I know it sounds like a conspiracy theory but realistically do we believe the new 17c instos are all going to hold well into the 30 c area?
Click to expand...

Andrew....you must be aware that the market overall is bedevilled by algorythmic trading these days....trying to ascertain whether a bid for a miniscule amount of stock (3m vs Issued Cap of 1300m) is genuine or not, is a total waste of time. You, I or the stockbroker involved, wouldn't have a clue. Also, if you believe that all the new entrants to the register are likely to be still there at 30c, you need a reality check.....some of the bigger names may still be around but there are plenty who will not have the patience needed to stick with this crew.
 
Thanks Hugh
I certainly feel that plenty of the 17c issue will need to be sold down now before this can get a run on. How can instos from north america or wherever that got placement suddenly care about a company they never heared of until someone calked with an offer of discounted shares in a certain gold mine project. Can't help but think the only way a real move will cone is on a great announcement. I was getting sucked into the mapawa cheer squad but realistically no one knows if there is anything significant there- although there are certainly signs. Ima bit annoyed cos I got sucked into topping up at .215 until I looked closer and saw what looks like selling down of 17c package. U guess none of this ultimately matters as long as we get a good rise into production. Hopefully gold , having made new highs last week I believe?? Has not topped out despite the current retrace. Any opinions on weathergold will move back up past previous high. The last action couldn't be part of a double top could it??
 
Personally I feel that the current "green shoots" and tax cuts (haven't heard that term in a while LOL) coming out of the US currently, is what's affecting the GP. I think there are enough fundamental problems going on out there to keep golds run going much longer. Personally I get the impression that we're only just seeing the start of America's exported inflation - can only be a good thing for gold right?
 
The USA still seems to be "fundamentally" a shopaholic with a credit card, and until they stop spending money they don't have nothing will reverse from the current path one would think. The monetary policy seems to be directed to encourage spending?? How does that help other than the short term.
I'm just nervous about being caught holding a heap of red if the pog music stops for some unknown reason unrelated to what we assume are the driving factors. At the very least you would think some consolidation is due, wonder where the new pog base level will turn out to be.
 
Andrewk65, I understand your concern about the possibility of the gold price coming off in US dollars as it will likely cause all gold shares to come off to some extent, notwithstanding that Aust gold stocks are buffered somewhat by the likely compensating falling away of the A$, but to put the Siana gold project in perspective with the current range of gold prices, I was ecstatic when gold moved up above US$1,000 as it gave the NPV a huge boost from when the initial BFS results were put out, based on an $800 price! Ok, now we don't get the same bang as there are more shares out now, but it still is trading below the fundamental value, on a cps basis (and would do if the gold price was down US$200 per oz!).

If RED share price comes off somewhat due to a slight readjustment in gold price (say down US$200 to around US$1150) then I have no doubt that once Siana is in production there will still be a re-rating upwards of RED share price from current price! Its now just a matter of time for that to happen, IF it doesn't happen sooner IMO. (Put it this way I feel comfortable to hold a fairly reasonable sized parcel of RED with an expectation it will be worth much more in April/May next year!)
 
Hi beatle
I must admit I was looking back at some old posts on hc and I was punching the air when gold hit $1250-1300, so guess I should be happy, can't see it going into freefall unless USA has a radical change in policy. I'm a bit annoyed though by what I can only assume is the new instos playing the sp and dumping their issued shares. I really can't understand why we would really expect them to hold?? If they cared they would have already been holders. Hopefully it's just a matter of time until they get rid of whatever they plan to. Still seems that the main thing is surely there can't be too much downside from here. 15c at absolute worst case I would hope. If you don't mind me asking beatle what would your average cost be of your holding- I assume you are ahead at current levels as it's still close to highs.
 
Hi Andrew, its been a disappointing day for RED although it only fell a little way, but I guess once the cycle is established and the momentum is down then the trader type mentalities of some do get the better of the overall market for the share, and RED is no exception. I agree with your comment that perhaps there is limited downside to the share, knowing what lies ahead and also knowing what price the insto's have bought in at. But who is to know who is selling anyway, although my own view which can't be substantiated, is that perhaps some of the smaller insto holders may have taken profits recently - I don't believe any of the significant players have sold down, but I may stand to be corrected in time - I believe the major holders consider their exit to be at vastly higher prices or a takeover, which they may even instigate!

As for my own shareholdings, well i have bought a considerable number of shares over a number of years, at prices that have ranged all through from around 4 cents (in 1998 or thereabouts, plus during the GFC), through to some over-excited phases when i bought at 18 - 20 cents during a previous surge in 2007, and more recently around the same price range of 17 - 21 cents! Without wanting to be too specific my holding cost overall is around the 12 -13 cents, but of course if you took a time value of money point of view then its not been a good investment especially with opportunity costs, and also its been creeping up lately with my expectations that with each surge that "this is the one"!

I agree that if you are making the point I am comfortable because my average price is much lower than the current price, then that is a correct assumption, but more importantly I take comfort that the fundamental value remains considerably higher than the current share price, and I have a very strong belief, having observed it so many times previously that RED will meet and exceed that fundamental value at the time of gold production being successfully initiated, and since the project is stock standard in most aspects, its more a matter of time than if from my point of view.
 
Hi again Beatle
Re your holdings sorry for prying, I wasn't really making a point I was just curious as I know you hold a pretty substantial amount of red. I just like the idea that if this goes up as we all hope you will obviously be in a "life changing" position which seems well deserved based on the patience and support you have shown this company. I've heared of people who have become millionaires based on little companies going big, hope you are one, if not already lol. I was a bit annoyed as I sold a few recently at the 19c levels to fund some other movers, only to see the price start moving up. Ended up buying back in at 21 ish to not miss the bus only to see it fade, hence my whingeing about the instos dumping. I am certainly ahead but must admit if this were to reach a dollar ( dreaming now??) I would be debt free but not loaded. Sounds like you would be set for life at that level, I really hope we get somewhere near, as I would love someone other than faceless instos to make a killing on this one. Good luck to us all i guess. Come on Santa, drop some 50g/t grades into mapawa for us haha. Best wishes to all holders for Xmas and a prosperous new year
 
Hi Andrewk65, not a problem with your prying, I guess that our anonymity on this site safeguards our situation, but I do want you know that my words are backed up by my hard earned investment dollars in RED, and that I do have a fairly broad knowledge of the market and resources companies so consider RED to be outstanding value, even still! I also know exactly how you feel about buying high, I have done that too and I just retain my confidence due to its fundamentals.

I understand how you feel about discounted shares by the insto's, but as I have said before, now when we invest in RED we are going along for the ride, we certainly are not in the drivers seat steering the ship! The insto's are the drivers, but since they are also in it for a big return that is another comfort factor for me and any other smallish investor (even a million dollars worth of RED shares now is small beer relatively speaking!).

Its still a bit early for wishing you Merry Xmas I would have thought, maybe many changes to RED share price and gold price before then, but I do wish you a Merry Xmas if you are away from now on. I do want to emphasise that many US commodity traders are tipping another run on the gold price after Xmas, that was a surprise to me as I would have thought the main interest would be pre-Xmas.
 
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