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VAU - Vault Minerals

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No Beatle, not that I'm aware, however, it would be punitive, if my past experience with those slugs in investment banking is any guide. As an aside, I note that CGX released a blurb on the Phillipino Govt's 1bn peso denominated bond issue today...the issue was 13.5x oversubscribed! Just shows that Aquino's efforts to boost investor confidence in the country are bearing fruit. Can't do any harm to management's efforts to renegotiate a better debt raising than the last offensive Ashmore/DB offering. With this sort of demand for debt, why the hell would management even consider further dilution to equity holders?
 
Very interesting comment re the Philippines govt bond issue Hugh_Jarzz, it seems most of the Asian economies including Phils are riding on the crest of a wave at the moment!
With regard to the DB/Ashmore facility offered to RED, I agree that it was an opportunistic attempt and it may still be taken up. But there remains an alternative possibility of the funds being raised by placement, and if that is done I'm sure the biggest reason will be the matter of time to bed down such a deal compared to the significantly increased time to complete a debt facility with any new group - nny new banking syndicate entering discussions with RED will need to complete its due diligence process, both legal and technical, before it can offer the funds. This would definitely delay the process for a number of months unless the offeror had already done or commenced such due diligence.
Of course as a shareholder hoping to see maximum cps value be achieved by RED, I would naturally prefer the funding be done as a debt facility. Here's hoping...
 
Hi all, I'm sitting here witnessing first hand the never seen before, record gold highs. Just not long ago gold hit 1273.60 an oz. Approx $28, or 2.3 percent rise. I was in disbelief at 1260 an oz. Surely that must be a good sign of what's to come tomorrow, and there after for the gold stocks and especially RED... What's your new valuation on RED now Beatle ?? Hopefully the gold price stays at it's record highs of 1250 plus an oz, at least until the funding is bedded down, and we start producing... Come on Red...
 
Hi Moit, good to hear from you again.
I have re-worked the RED valuation model based solely on Siana development (exluding Mapawa and cash in bank at present) for the latest changes in commodity prices and also change the US/Aussie exchange rate. Unfortunately the rising Aussie dollar has a considerable impact (negatively on valuations).
As I am unsure what the final funding package will be I have worked a number of scenarios, assuming:
100% debt (ie US$40 million), a mix of 50% debt (ie US$20 million) and 50% equity(ie US$20 million), and finally 100% equity (ie US$40 million - I assume equity at a pricing of 15.5 cents per new share).
The new prices input are: Gold price US$1,268, Silver US$20, Exchange rate A$/US$ = 0.94
Ouputs based on a 10% discount rate are:
100% debt 37 cps
50:50 mix 34 cps
100% equity 32 cps
On those scenarios it indicates that Siana is worth no less than 32 cps (at current metal prices and exchange rate) regardless of how the final funding package is done. But it also demonstrates that if the Aussie dollar continues to move up with the increasing gold price the overall impact on Siana valuation remains fairly static (if we get a blow out in gold price with minimal movement in aussie dollar we will get a much greater positive impact on RED!).
Any Mapawa value must also be added to Siana values, and cash is currently around $57 million dollars.
RED is in a holding pattern with current trading, and so far has resisted dropping down towards its cyclical range trading base that many have predicted could take it to 12 cents or so. Investors are waiting for news on the finance. Yesterday (Tues) there appeared to be some weakness in its share price and I was of the opinion that BOTS were artificially keeping it up whilst surreptitiously dropping more shares at 17.5 cents than was being accumulated!
(Sorry to be a negative at the moment but thats how I saw it. By the way I certainly wouldn't suggest selling it down and buying back when it drops because you might lose your shares and never get back in again if there is an announcement, thats my view anyway!).
 
No one likes to wait for news, and investors awaiting RED's announcement of finance and advancement of field activities are probably bored to pieces at present, with only the odd ASX release out. I'm also eagerly awaiting some positive announcement regarding finance, as that holds the key to whether RED will develop Siana in a timely manner, and will obviously impact on share price performance in the short term. RED has impressed with its share price remaining at the top of its recent trading range, and resisting the possibility of dropping towards its range trading lows which have been anticipated by many observers. Especially during this time with minimal news out regarding finance. Of course todays higher US$ gold price assisted it to continue trading close to the top of its recent price cycle during today.

Some posters have voiced concerns regarding the Siana development needing to start soon to ensure that RED can meet its production schedule in April 2011. In particular they have mentioned the fact that if things don't start soon then they will be affected by the coming wet season (the wettest months of the year in the Surigao area, some 50 kms north of Siana, are Nov - Feb with rains then beginning to tail off during March in an average year). In fact that wet season is an issue with development works, and its timing in the coming months will possibly impact on development works although I understand that the current development schedule did provide for the wet season, with the timing as it currently stands.

AND it should be emphasised that so far all development works have been continuing in line with the development plan, utilising internal RED funds. I understand that provided the final funding package is available during early October the current development plan will not be affected unless other influences (such as weather conditions during the wet season) create more problems than are envisaged and provided for.

Thus the big development initiatives should be rolled out within the next month with commitments based on the final funding package being made available. If they are not rolled out within the next month then its likely that development will lag some weeks from original commissioning in April 2011.
 
Hi again Beatle. Thankyou for your insight once again.
I didnt realise the rising aussie doller had such an impact on RED. I try not to delve into that to much, i'll leave that up to you, lol. But thankyou for your valuations. 32 cent sp certainly isnt as good as your previous 38 to 40 sp. But in saying that, when it does get to 32 cents, (which i will still be exstatic about), what's stopping it going to 40 cents ??
One thing i did realise, and i agree with you totally, and thats the bots trading on Tuesday. It did seem like someone was trying to keep the sp up. I know we shouldn't complain, but surely the asx should have something in place to stop this. I know with other online trading sights there is a $500 minimum... Some of these trades would be costing more for the actual trade, then what it would to buy the stock. But anyway each to there own, if they can do it, why not i guess.
Im kind of in a biased point of view, lol, that the current RED 5 sp has created a new support and resistance level, änd moved into new and permanent territory, with the support being at around the 17 cents.. Resistance being 19.5.. Please anyone correct me if im wrong!! So i really dont think we are ever going to see the old 11 cent sp.. So those that sell out now and try to pick up at cheaper sp, will most definately loose out, as the financing being SOOO close to completion...
Just my biased point of view once again, lol, regaurds Moit, Go RED!!!
 
Hi Moit, good to see your post and sorry to upset your expectations (but I'm sure you would prefer me tell you the true valuation model outcomes rather than just what you might prefer to hear!).

As for that valuation, you do have to keep in mind a few points, as I have quoted things on what I consider to be a conservative basis:
1. The scenario where I assume all equity (ie increasing shares issued), I have assumed that the new shares are issued at 15.5 cents. That may be reasonable. There is no guarantee that all or any new shares will be issued, thus the 32 cents value must be kept in mind with regard to situations that I simply can't predict with no knowledge of what is being discussed by RED and others at present.
2. That DCF valuation covers ONLY Siana development which excludes any input by cash (RED has got something like A$17 million cash in excess of its needs for development of Siana, thus any equity only contribution may be reduced to less than US$40 million requirement (RED previously announced US$40 million in debt only so that may have an impact on how much new equity RED would be prepared to raised to meet future developments at Siana PLUS exploration activities at Mapawa.
3. There is no consideration for value at Mapawa.
4. The DCF value also is a technical estimate of value for RED, but doesn't consider that most gold producing companies tend to trade at a significant premium to that underlying valuation, that ranges from say tens of % to several hundreds of % above that valuation value. That range relates to perceived prospectivity, likelihood to extend an operations reserves, operating costs attraction, mine life, outlook for gold price, amongst other things. Therefore even if the model value of 32 cps was considered appropriate with max raising of US$40 million by way of equity only, then there will be a premium to that value included into RED's share price once in production one would expect.

As to BOTS, I am yet to decide whether they are a good thing or not, except from my view anyone wanting to put a BOT to work means that at least the trading party is serious and they are surely not there to make a cent or two return. I am comforted by the BOTS working on RED at the moment.

But gee its a frustrating game waiting for RED to get that finance at the moment.
 
I find it interesting to read knocker posters on HC, especially ones that apparently sold out of RED in the past couple of weeks who apparently don't intend buying back into RED but still want to continue to downramp RED! And the very same knocker has accused me, Beatle, if he his misspelling of my pseudonym is one and the same ("Beattle"), of being a consultant to RED to work on overtime to post on HC (read ASF!!!). Lol. (I also find it interesting that sort of post with personal attacks is not moderated!).

One has to wonder why downrampers want to knock a stock, and in this particular case the downramper is very adamant in almost all posts about poor management or words to that effect. Possibly the downrampers in fact want to buy RED at a lower price. And at the moment they must be miffed that so far the share price has resisted going down through its usual range to around the 12 cents mark. This clearly has been a result of the gold price trading higher over the past days, and maybe some insto (maybe Baker Steel?) or similar continuing to buy more shares in RED whenever it threatens to move down below about 18 cents.

In this case it is clear also that the downramper has a very definite set against RED management, and one would wonder if the downramper perhaps is a disenchanted past employee who is not happy with the recent share price success of RED and its move towards being a gold producer in early 2011!

I do want to confirm, and I have stated this before, that I, Beatle, am a shareholder of RED, and have been a shareholder for many years (since about 1997 or 1998 - I don't recall when I began buying shares in Greenstone Resources, as it was called then, but it was around that time). In those early days I did buy and sell the shares and the current holding includes shares I purchased much later, from 2001. But thats still a long time I would say!

Additionally I am not and have never been a consultant or contractor to RED, and have never been an employee nor part of management nor director of RED. Anyone suggesting anything else clearly is wrong and is trying to muddy the waters for their own downramping motivations! I post on RED for 2 reasons:
1. I have a lot of shares in RED, and I want to make sure that information is made available for shareholders or interested investors that is not provided through the company so that RED is properly represented and not mis-represented by downrampers;
2. I have a good knowledge of financial modelling and therefore it enables me to provide definitive valuations on Siana that don't ever get published without allegiances to private broking firms, and my modelling does not pull punches in terms of being biased one way or the other, I quote values as I see them on the spreadsheet.

I would also like to make some clarifications, based on my current knowledge which is a combination of reading all RED reports, my past travel to site some time back, my past discussions with various management:
1. As reported RED management still believe that construction and first gold pour remains on track for April 2011, and to that end major contracts have been awarded to maintain that timeline, with 45% of capital committed, based on internal RED cash available;
2. Major long lead time items such as SAG mill etc have been ordered to arrive well within final construction time requirements;
3. Dewatering process is in train at present, with drilling of dewatering bores;
4. A quarter of the tender packages for the EPCM contract have been put to reputable contractors, the outstanding ones will be issued as necessary, but with the majority of those being issued at the time of the final funding package being finalised;
5. Ground preparation works are underway for the processing facility;
6. Mobilisation to site of the earthworks fleet is arranged;
7. The EPCM processing facility design engineering was 33% complete as reported in the June 2010 quarterly report;
8. Access road works and administration building construction has been begun.

I would also like to confirm that the processing facility is of a standard design for the processing of gold rich ore, and subject to no hold-ups related to weather etc, can be constructed within the timeframe to meet first gold pour in April 2011.
 
Beatle - great posts. You know I really think you should try for the investor relations manager job!

I have had second thoughts around the offer of debt finance. As a believer in market dynamics , i.e the market doing fine on its own, it may be inconceivable that DB/Ashmore had indeed been extortionate - if they did then word would get around and no more business for them in the future?

With a new legal eagle director and re-reading the ann. I/ we may have jumped the gun - it said no more than it was under review especially around timing of drawdown and the "extent of security". What we may be seeing is some commercial theatre in sweating the lender more, and they would also have Freehills advising before they made then ann.

I don't subscribe to another cap raise - if they considered it, then they would have made minimal efforts to post some lovely photos and give us a mine construction update, to enhance the share price. But nothing.
 
Been following RED for a while, though have not bought yet. See bots busy today can anyone explain what this is and the reason for it?
 
Hi beatle and all. I was wondering where you guys were hanging out. Good to hear some incisive analysis on red progress. Hope you don't mind me dropping in, I think I see why the exodus from hc after the last day or so. I'm not involved in mining but am involved in industrial automation and was of the opinion that a lot of the equipment for this mine would be standard for this type of operation and as such hopefully not subject to commissioning blowouts as can be the case with one off specialized machinery. As such I guess it just depends on the off site progress of the equipment manufacturers as to wether start up dates will be achieved if funding gets sorted. Am I correct in thinking thar red has an all time high of around 25c. Should make technical analysis interesting once we break through there.
 
Hi Mgm1a, and thanks for your comments. I would make the following points with regard to the finance - of course none of us outside of RED really knows what has gone on in the discussions, so what I say may not be based on correct assumptions:
1. On the face of it I believe the original offer by DB/Ashmore did not include warrants. The Asia Presentation referred to 2 facilities (US$25 m + 15m), but had no warrants mentioned. That presentation was on 13 July. The North American presentation, prepared a couple of weeks later also in July, specifically referred to the warrants.
2. My view is that project finance offers of debt do not have equity sweeteners in them (as opposed to small corporate facilities offered pre BFS being completed). I believe DB crossed the line in seeking such from RED for a major project finance proposal, and I believe that the whole mining industry will now be aware of what was being sought and will be very careful to get into bed with DB. Thats just my view, I have worked in project finance previously (for 7 years, albeit it was pre-GFC), but I have not seen this done before and have not seen it done recently in other companies that I follow.
3. IF the DB/Ashmore offer was something reasonably acceptable I believe RED would have already made a decision to go with the offer by now, but clearly the terms of the offer are not as attractive as would have been presumed from the earlier announcements made by RED.
4. I agree with you, that a debt facility would be far more preferable from a share valuation point of view, and any conventional debt facility would be far preferrable to raising funds through a further equity raising. But as must be the case here, the fine print in the debt offer must also be reasonable and commercially acceptable. The DB/Ashmore offer warrants might actually be a poison pill that enables the bank to hold a controlling stake over RED in the event of a takeover too, which takes RED out of control in any negotiations with the takeover company! Of course, it depends upon how many warrants are being issued.
5. I believe that unless RED is already well advanced with other financial institutions then any alternative take up of debt finance will require a considerable time to complete due diligence and therefore will certainly impinge on development timetables. Thus RED may have to either accept the DB/Ashmore offer (or a negotiated variation of that), or a more vanilla equity raising.
I hope that RED is very much advanced with all these discussions, as clearly we need to have an announcement of such in the next couple of weeks to ensure the development timetable is not affected.

Hi Rick64. As I have mentioned earlier, I'm not really aware of the intentions of the BOTS, other than the general understanding that it allows a party to constantly make small trades at a general level. I don't believe that really affects the trading much, but gives me more confidence that at least these are bigger traders either getting in or out, and with the fact that Baker Steel is just getting in my impression is that the BOTS are working for the good of a higher share price. But thats just a biased opinion.

Hi Andrewk65. Good to see your post. In fact I was a HC poster for a long time, but I got banned as a result of someone accusing me of having 2 different identities. (It was someone on another thread, not the RED threads I believe and I think it was done as I was telling too many hard truths about a company! - thats my view anyway). I have found ASF to be a very good website for posting, with much less emotionally charged posts, and the website allows me to post what I consider to be relevant to the discussion about RED without the constant intervention of moderators (who have a role and I respect that role, whether it be HC or ASF). I try to ensure my posts are correct, certainly not aimed to be just a ramp (although I am very much biased with seeing RED go up of course, as I have lots of RED shares!).

Now about your query on the processing facility. Well I did make comment that the processing facility was standard for gold ores. But I don't want to give you the impression that its similar to a stock standard process that might go into, say a coffee machine etc.
What I mean by it being standard, is that the Siana ore has metallurgical characteristics not dissimilar to many others (although there is some element of refractory gold as we know the recovery is around 85% for open pit and 87% for underground ore). Those particular metallurgical characteristics have been determined based on considerable representative sampling of past diamond holes, undertaken by independent labs (AMMTEC, Orway, Amdel etc) supervised by an independent metallurgical group. That procedure is the norm for the gold industry.

Having determined what those metallurgical characteristics, RED and its consultants, have determined a processing route that entails crushing, SAG milling, carbon in leach (cyanide) processing, standard electrowinning etc. (There is also an indication that the underground ore may have potential for a zinc concentrate, and subject to zinc price at the time RED may develop a separate floatation circuit to recover a zinc concentrate in year 5 or so).

The appointed EPCM engineering firm, TWP, is overseeing the development of a design that encompasses the specific metallurgical inputs for Siana, plus the designated throughput rate.
Thus the processing facility will be designed specifically for the requirements of Siana, but with the standard processing flowsheet of crushing and grinding, cyanidation in tanks with activated carbon (to grab the gold), followed by standard elution of gold and electrowinning circuits. This requires a fair degree of engineering designwork, and the preparation of many different tender packages covering civils, mechanical, electrical, chemical, etc engineering for sub-contractors etc. The plant also has to be designed to accomodate water balance, etc for a maximum 1 million tpa throughput rate. But throughput rate varies from year to year according to the different hardness of rock, (being initially softer oxide from open pit to harder underground rock in year 4).

From this you may realise that it is still a considerable number of issue to develop even a standard gold treatment facility, but I can assure you that most processing facilities of this size can be completed within a timeframe of around 8 months (including design) and its the long lead time items, such as SAG mill that tend to rule the final commissioning of the project.

I have pointed out though, that there are many aspects that will need to be started soon to ensure that April gold pour is met, so I believe that funding will have to be completed within the next few weeks to ensure the continuity of the program can be achieved. So far RED has managed to continue to work from internal cash but soon it must have the funding in place to make the commitments for outstanding requirements.

Even if RED was delayed a month or so, from my point of view I am not fussed, but its very important that RED can deliver within a reasonable timeframe, to retain the confidence of its shareholders and investors in the market place.

I do believe that some of the posters on HC at present are quite mischievous, and I don't really know if maybe they are disenchanted former employees of RED, or perhaps are representing investors who are seeking to hold down RED share price to secure a financially more attractive deal to possible takeover parties, or are just frustrated shareholders (but I doubt the latter!). Who knows, but one thing is for sure, its important to make proper representation to the market, and I'm certainly very concerned with miss-information that is a negative for RED investment, far more than it deserves.
 
G'day Beatle, once again you have posted very informative comments. Should be required reading for all interested REDers. I don't have anything particularly factual so please forgive my general commentary.It is not much longer before we should have a better idea of what will happen with the finance package. If management decides to push ahead with things as they stand, we may see a few holders head for the exits, but in my opinion if management decides to go with the package as it stands, then I for one will respect their judgement. We do know that several months ago it was mentioned in a report by CJ that a number of unsolicited offers of finance had come in, so I feel comfortable that management will find an appropriate way forward. I am much more interested in progress with Siana, and of course the results of preliminary drilling at Mapawa, as imo these will provide more stimulus to the SP in due course. I too feel the frustration of the apparent recent flattening in the SP, but as there is so much more to come it is really just a waiting period. Also we need to recognise that it seems that a new resistance base has been found as someone else pointed out. I also respect the cornerstone nature of Mathew's holdings, and the more recent topup, plus the Merrill/BOA holdings(whoever is the real buyer) plus the more recent Baker Steel buyup. Goodness me...........whatever else could we all wish for? Here we have a company in which a while back most of us were very keen to see institutional interest occur, and now we have it some holders are still not happy. As Beatle says, some people are very mischievous indeed! So although it has been a long haul, especially for holders like Beatle ( and to a lesser extent myself) I remain calm awaiting further news. AB
 
Mr Beatle I think you don't get this enough, but thanks for providing such in depth infomation on RED. You're one of the reasons that I bought shares at $0.125 a while back when everyone was panicking and now I'm sitting on a 36% profit in under 2 months :D.

So yeah, not really much content in this post but just to express my thanks for providing good coverage and detailed analysis of the ongoing development of RED.

Onwards and upwards I say! :cool:
 
To Anderbond and ParleVousFrancois I'm most appreciative of your comments, and in fact I have found it a pleasure to post and hopefully spread the word (and facts) about RED. I have actually found investing in RED to be a test of patience over the years, but I must say that until we had a definitive BFS I was not always a long time holder. I would buy and then get frustrated with the delays and sell (net I would say I am slightly ahead), but since getting the BFS have been a longer term holder.

I agree with you Anderbond, that I would also accept the original DB offer (but not aware of the number and terms of the warrants) although I am of the view its been an opportunistic offer by DB. I do not like the idea of continuing to raise money in placements ad infinitum, but in the absence of a better offer would accept that too since on a cents per share basis, it will still make money for RED. But I want them hurry up with it so that we can be assured that they can meet the timeframe, or close to it, by April. In that regard I have an understanding that the mine opening is expected by May 2011 at this stage (unless there are some unforseen holdups). Just noting that a mine opening must be preceded by successful commissioning so I am sure at the moment management still believe they can achieve the April deadline for mine first gold pour.

I am surprised that RED's share price has been able to find such strong support at 17 cents as you point out Anderbond, and I assume its one of the stronger insto's, probably Baker Steel. That is a good sign as mopping up the weaker holders at this price means we are sure to get a good kick IMO when the finance is finally bedded down and announced. Hopefully we will see that in the coming couple of weeks!

ParleVousFrancois, I'm glad to hear of your current investment, but I believe you have seen nothing yet, and thats going to be the most exciting part for me personally, to finally see a much better share price within a short time frame. Of course expecting and talking that up means there is possibly going to be some who are waiting for the jump up to exit soon, but maybe it won't be directly up, there might be some fits and starts along the way - there has to be some holding at various levels and retracements to ensure longer term support for the ultimate building up of the share price.
 
Hi again all.
Thanks for the reply before beatle. Just wondered if anyone can clarify for me exactly what is involved in
The warrants part of the finance package proposed by db. Does that mean that red must issue upon request more shares at a preset price? Pardon my ignorance but thus seems to be one of the issues that came from left field and I would like to understand exactly what it entails. Thanks in advance.
 
Hi Andrewk65, regarding the proposed warrants, which of course RED has yet to agree to: - and of course without us knowing all the details and terms etc its not possible to know the exact arrangements proposed by DB. But as you have described them, a warrant gives the holder the right to a number of shares previously agreed to at some pre-set price (and in this case my presumption is that they have been proposed by DB (on the surface anyways!) to offset principle repayment of the debt plus to provide some level of security (or collateral) over the company (in the event of a default). (Another way to rationalise getting more than the usual bank fees for provision of debt!). In simple terms its similar to an option, but there are some subtle differences and I have not had any past experience with their use. It ends up being a likely increase in share capital although I understand it might be possible for RED to buy back the warrants and have them cancelled (again as I say depending upon the specific terms of the warrants) in order to restrict further issuance of equity (but of course that involves more costs too).
I would like to know how many warrants and over how many shares those warrants to be issued - if its a very high number it has the potential to be a prime asset in the event of a takeover play!

RED seems to be holding up well with no news dragging on (as we have been expecting), and that must be a positive for its future share price once we are off to the races with funding in place!
 
Thanks beatle. As you say it's hard to know what to think without all the terms and conditions. Does seem like it would defeat the point though as they already issued extra shares to raise capital and It seems that this part of the finance was supposed to be debt not equity. Oh well, I guess we just wait.
 
Hi all, hi Beatle. Beatle and Anderbond i would also like to personally thank you both for your knowledge, experience and respect you have for RED... Your intelligence is truely welcomed through your posts and to the shareholders that follow RED 5. I for one am so greatful we have people like you to share your insight and knowledge. Thanks guys and dont ever stop posting as i check asf everyday in order to learn more and broarden my own intelligence.

Beatle please dont worry if you throw in a bit of negativity into your posts. I know your only speaking the truth and being honest and thats what we'd all prefer. I respect that...

What i am wondering if there is going to be a mad scramble for RED shares in the next week or two, to pick up them last minute shares at a really cheap price before RED gets that ann out. I know i am thinking of buying some more for my kids as im sure the returns are far going to exceed the 5-6% the banks pay...

Not long now guys, come on RED
 
Hi Moit, and as I've mentioned before, its a pleasure to post on the RED threads of ASF. I enjoy the mental stimulation and to be able to keep in touch with like-minded investors (whether they are buyers, sellers or just plain interested) is not an issue for me (unless they are trying to spread mis-information purposely which I consider to be against the spirit of the threads for RED).

As for your question about future movements in RED, post any announcement on finance etc:
Whereas personally I believe that its almost a given that the funding will occur and will result in a re-rating upwards, I do want to temper that view somewhat by stating the obvious - that the future course of RED gaining the final funding required and resultant share price remains speculative.

And the big issues that remain include RED getting a funding package that RED management considers acceptable (I rate that likelihood as being 90% probable since RED has already got an offer on the table from DB/Ashmore, albeit that offer seems to have some snags in it with regard to the warrants and timeframes for providing funds based on certain development achievements being made), and at the very worst an all-equity offer (which is value accretionary ie above 31 cps at current gold price) being made around 15.5 cents (relatively conservative I would say) is possible as an alternative (and hopefully some other offers being more share value accretionary than that!).

The movement in the gold price has been almost neutral with the effects of an increasing aussie dollar almost completely removing the benefits of the gold price, although since most of the capex items are priced in US dollars, RED certainly would be able to benefit in a rising aussie dollar for outstanding capex - currently at 95.5 US cents per aussie dollar. However, there always remains a threat that the gold price could drop appreciably, and notwithstanding the aussie dollar likely to drop commensurately with that, its likely to have an overall negative impact on any gold related explorer/developer/producer. So be aware that whilst RED has not announced its funding, the threat of a falling gold price could impact negatively on RED share price.

As to when the RED share price might start to re-rate in line with valuations of Siana worth when the funding package is announced (if its announced of course!), well that is pure speculation, but its time bound (again affected by movements in gold price if it re-rates later and not sooner). But knowing its likely gold production commences around April 2011, we won't have long to wait for RED to re-rate, but how fast and how far it moves is anybodies guess. And perhaps there is some pent-up demand for current holders to off-load stock once the funding is announced and the expectation of a rising share price probably will have some counter-balancing affect on its rate of movement upwards. (I still understand that there is a possibility of a Melb based insto that wants in only once funding is achieved and that might help to take out any loose holders of stock - I understand that if the insto wants in, it will take around 5 - 6% of stock so that equates to no less than about 50 million shares).

I hope that gives you some more insight to how things might develop, but bearing in mind that who knows what other influences may come to bear in coming weeks/months.

I would like to think that Mapawa results also start to confirm the ongoing likelihood of a major porphyry gold deposit being developed, and that could open up the interest from a major in a completely different direction, with a much greater share value than Siana can provide!
 
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