USD/JPY

[Douglas Class]

USD/JPY DAILY as of Friday, 29 March, 2013
A Daily black body has formed (because prices closed lower than they opened).
For the past 10 Daily candlestick bars as of 29/03/2013, there are 3 white candles versus 7 black candles with a net of 4 black candles.
For the past 50 Daily candlestick bars as of 29/03/2013, there are 23 white candles versus 27 black candles with a net of 4 black candles.
A Daily hammer formed (a hammer has a long lower shadow and closes near the high). Hammers must appear after a significant decline or when prices are oversold(which appears to be the case with US Dollar / Japanese Yen) to be valid. When this occurs, it usually indicates the formation of a support level and is thus considered a bullish pattern.A Daily hanging man has formed (a hanging man has a very long lower shadow and a small real body). This pattern can be bullish or bearish, depending on the trend. If it occurs during an uptrend it is called a hanging man line and signifies a reversal top. If it occurs during a downtrend(which appears to be the case with US Dollar / Japanese Yen) it is called a bullish hammer.A Daily long lower shadow has formed. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).A Daily spinning top has formed (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action as defined by the difference between the open and the close. During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.Three Daily black candles has formed during the last three Daily bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three Daily black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

 

[Boggo]

Went long as indicated, got stopped out as indicated and then up it went without me.

I guess that could be payback for me going to the MAD thread and winding jancha up

(click to expand)

 

[CanOz]

Went long as indicated, got stopped out as indicated and then up it went without me.

I guess that could be payback for me going to the MAD thread and winding jancha up

(click to expand)

Yeah, I thought it might be a good idea to finish up before Ben started jaw boning and affecting all the dollar denominated assets....

 

[havaiana]

USD/JPY in it's 8th straight up month, my data only goes back so far, but i don't see any time there has ever been 9 months straight in one direction and next major level is a fair way from here

 

[Trembling Hand]

Gee The Yen is in a very interesting place. Is this a bottoming pattern or just a consolidation before further drops.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Where's your money, long or short? I'd say consolidation before further drops.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Where's your money, long or short? I'd say consolidation before further drops.

I'd guess that we could be forming the start of a short squeeze that could bankrupt Japan. If it breaks up they are stuffed.

 

[havaiana]

It's been trading really well with the Nikkei during Asia the past few weeks, have had the feeling the past couple of days it's starting to fight it a bit though, but I still think if there is a decent break either way in the Nikkei it will determine the direction until the fed says something big

Action hasn't been natural though, I reckon the BOJ have got a lot more intelligent after all their intervention experience

 

[havaiana]

Yen has been very persistently offered these past couple of days, not even any spikes have been able to eat through them as of yet



If the nikkei can break up today there should be a fair bit of short covering which will give at least a short term reversal in the Yen, if not looks like we will just continue to grind down

 

[havaiana]

If the nikkei can break up today there should be a fair bit of short covering which will give at least a short term reversal in the Yen, if not looks like we will just continue to grind down

Looking at the spot when i should be looking at futures etc

if the nikkei can break up today, will lead to a further breakdown in futures or break up in spot, not a reversal!

 

[CanOz]

Looking at the spot when i should be looking at futures etc

if the nikkei can break up today, will lead to a further breakdown in futures or break up in spot, not a reversal!

Yeah, i see the 6J is breaking down, this is good!!

 

[havaiana]

Yeah, i see the 6J is breaking down, this is good!!

missed that retrace just now, thought it would continue a few more ticks, if the Seng opens strong it's going to take off without me

 

[havaiana]

YEN was looking extremely strong against the USD during Europe/US last night, even when everything else was bouncing it just kept staying strong.

 

[havaiana]

Equities opening weak and yen looking like it could rollover hard if the momentum keeps up

 

[havaiana]

Market talk of a lot of Options interest in this pair at the moment that will keep it pegged pretty close to 98 until option expiry in US session.

I like the short side a bit better as if it does make a move away from 98 there will be a lot of stops under the NFP low from yesterday

This pair has given me a kicking the last month, so have been trading it less the past week or so and concentrating more on AUD.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Looking at a long on the $Y on Monday either at market or on a Buy Limit.

Liking the break it's making off Fridays news. few things going for it... been in consolidation formation for a while. with a good test and bounce off the previous roof of short term down trend. brings up a higher low and start of a new short term rally.

once long want to see it hold above the low of the sat close. it is at a point of short term resistance... still unsure if this current news push has and follow through.

 

[havaiana]

Looking at a long on the $Y on Monday either at market or on a Buy Limit.

Liking the break it's making off Fridays news. few things going for it... been in consolidation formation for a while. with a good test and bounce off the previous roof of short term down trend. brings up a higher low and start of a new short term rally.

once long want to see it hold above the low of the sat close. it is at a point of short term resistance... still unsure if this current news push has and follow through.

You still long? today could be the day

I had a long bias today but went for a small short scalp before the nikkei opened and smoked half my daily stop. Have reversed now and it's one i want to hold, will add if it goes against me (as much as the rest of my daily stop will allow for!)

Edit: damn was really expecting/hoping for a bigger pop above 100.50, c'mon, gogogo

 

[havaiana]

USD/JPY not keeping up with nikkei, think i want to see nikkei breach daily highs again and USD/JPY to pop when it does to keep holding long.

Update: both sinking, still want long though, have scratched and will try to reload further down (maybe around 30) rather than hold and add. If it doesn't get break the 5 min low at 33 and goes through the roof I'm probably going to need a new mouse

 

[havaiana]

... damn was really expecting/hoping for a bigger pop above 100.50, c'mon, gogogo

POP! 30 tick spike. Lucky, I don't have another spare mouse

 

[havaiana]

$141,000,000 order anybody? biggest i have ever seen, and as you can see from the second shot, it's real!