USD/JPY

[Wysiwyg]

Re: USDJPY

Still looks like it would be a good sell as it touches the top if it looks like it will roll over.

Apparently not.

Here is the price range being condensed in a symmetrical triangle.(again )

And the ensuing breakout of range ....

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: USDJPY

My limited understanding is USA will try and get the 800B bailout money from Japan which should support the Yen.

I thought China was their main source of borrowings.How can we know?

 

[Stormin_Norman]

Re: USDJPY

the USA treasury will end up borrowing from the fed.

 

[BentRod]

Re: USDJPY

And the ensuing breakout of range ....

Looks like a classic fakeout to me.

Either way, didn't even come close to rolling on a touch.

You long or short W??

 

[BentRod]

Re: USDJPY

Coilies on coilies.......Budgie Man would be proud...

 

[sinner]

Re: USDJPY

We are approaching January resistance.

What does this mean? Demand for JPY fading as the yen carry trade winds up (yea right!)? BOJ intervention? A sudden demand for USD in excess of the carry trade?

Break through 100MA is bullish, but the stochastic is starting to look overbought.

Appreciate your thoughts. Not trading this pair after last week but it has important implications for the state of the markets as a whole.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

Re: USDJPY

rumour has it the japanese will print yen to buy USD and US govt bonds.

weakening the yen and helping their exporters with a weaker yen.

 

[CFDTrading]

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Down as CPI Shows the US is Teetering on Brink of Deflation

Foreign Exchange Markets Fundamental Outlook

Monday, 23 February 2009 04:15:39 GMT
Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist


• Euro Jumps as ECB’s Nowotny Says Zero Rates ‘Neither Desirable Nor Needed’
• British Pound Gains as UK Retail Sales Rise, UK GDP Revision Could Weigh Next Week
• Canadian Dollar Shows Little Reaction to Bigger Than Expected Drop in Canadian CPI


US Dollar, Japanese Yen Down as CPI Shows the US is Teetering on Brink of Deflation
The US dollar and Japanese yen ended Friday mostly lower despite clear signs of risk aversion as evidenced by gold's test of $1000/oz, sharp drops in global stock markets, and a rally in government bonds, including US Treasuries. However, with the majors generally still contained to ranges and near their spike highs/lows, it may be a bit early to say that the US dollar and Japanese yen have lost their status as “safe havens,” as correlations have a tendency to fade in and out over time. Looking at charts of the DXY Index, price pulled back from resistance at the 2008 highs and the outlook for the greenback for the next few weeks may hinge upon whether or not the drop signal a reversal or ultimately yields a break higher.

On Thursday we noted that surprisingly strong producer price growth suggested that consumer price growth would be similarly high. This proved to be the case on Friday morning as the US consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly rose 0.3 percent in January, while the core index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2 percent. The more important factor though, was that these moves helped to prevent the annualized CPI reading from falling into negative territory for the first time since 1955. Instead, the figure eased to 0 percent, signaling that prices have essentially gone unchanged from January 2007, while the core figure stayed afloat at 1.7 percent, down from 1.8 percent in December. It appears that producers aren’t passing on lower input costs to consumers, as they struggle to maintain profits as demand falters, but with CPI still historically low, the Federal Reserve is highly unlikely to be concerned about upside risks to inflation, as contracting demand and credit creates greater risks for deflation.

Looking ahead to next week there will be a handful of events that US dollar traders will need to watch. On February 24 at 10:00 ET, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for the month of February is forecasted to reach a fresh record low of 36.0, down from 37.7. With record keeping having begun in 1967, the plunge in sentiment makes the extent of the recession even more clear. However, with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke due to testify before the Senate on the economic and Fed policy at the same time, the consumer confidence result may have little impact on the markets. Instead, traders will be listening closely for more detailed outlooks on growth, unemployment, inflation, and the financial markets. Bearish commentary could weigh heavily on risk appetite, and as a result it will be important to keep an eye on the link between the currency markets and stocks, as the Japanese yen hasn’t been responding as strongly to shifts in equities while the US dollar still tends to benefit from flight-to-quality. On February 26 at 8:30 ET, signs that domestic demand is showing no sign of recovery should continue to emerge on February 26 as US Durable Goods Orders are forecasted to have dropped 2.3 percent and even excluding transportation is anticipated to fall 2.0 percent. Finally, on February 27, the 08:30 ET preliminary reading of Q4 GDP for the US is forecasted to be revised even lower after initial estimates showed the index down 3.5 percent. The latest results may show a sharp 5.4 percent contraction, which would still be the worst since Q1 1982.

Euro Jumps as ECB’s Nowotny Says Zero Rates ‘Neither Desirable Nor Needed’
The euro jumped during the US trading session as European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said that cutting interest rates down to zero was “neither desirable nor needed,” suggesting that the ECB’s dovish bias may be fading quickly. However, the markets are still expecting a 50 basis point cut by the ECB on March 5, as various other ECB members have signaled such a move in recent weeks. Furthermore, data continues to disappoint as the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the Euro-zone's manufacturing and services sectors unexpectedly fell to a new record low in February or 36.2 from 38.3, which also signals a contraction in activity for the ninth straight month since the index remains below 50. Looking ahead to next week, Eurostat inflation estimates for the Euro-zone have shown that CPI may have fallen to a 1.1 percent annual pace during January, which would mark the lowest since 1999 but more importantly, remains below the European Central Bank’s 2.0 percent inflation target. If Eurostat confirms this at 5:00 ET on February 27, the euro could pull back, especially ahead of the ECB's meeting the following week. On the other hand, if CPI is higher than anticipated, the currency could gain as the markets will speculate that the central bank may pause in their efforts to make monetary policy more accommodative.

British Pound Gains as UK Retail Sales Rise, UK GDP Revision Could Weigh Next Week
The British pound gained on Friday after UK retail sales figures showed another rise in spending during the month of January amidst heavy discounting. However, the BOE said a few months ago that they would not put too much stock into these government statistics as they are often volatile, and instead they look toward private surveys like BRC retail sales. Next week on February 25, the 04:30 ET preliminary reading of Q4 GDP for the UK is forecasted to revised even lower, down to -1.6 percent from -1.5 percent, which would still mark the lowest level since Q2 1980. The UK has been hit particularly hard by the credit crunch, especially since the country became one of the biggest financial centers in the world. This has translated into a full-on collapse of the housing market, climbing job losses, and weak consumption. Furthermore, with growth slowing around the world, demand for British exports has declined as well, putting a large burden on manufacturers. Overall, a greater-than-expected decline could lead the British pound lower as the data would raise the odds the Bank of England will cut rates again on March 5. On the other hand, if GDP is a bit better than forecasts, the currency could gain.

Canadian Dollar Shows Little Reaction to Bigger Than Expected Drop in Canadian CPI
The Canadian dollar showed a relatively muted reaction to inflation figures, despite the fact CPI fell more than expected, as sharp declines in the US dollar across the majors determined price action for the USD/CAD pair. Taking a closer look at the data, CPI slumped for the fourth straight month in January at a rate of 0.3 percent, bringing the annual rate down to match the two-year low of 1.1 percent. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s core measure slipped another 0.4 percent, dragging the annual rate down to 1.9 percent from 2.4 percent. Overall, weaker commodity prices are dragging broader prices lower, but as we discussed yesterday, cheaper oil has extremely negative repercussions for the Canadian economy as a whole.

 

[BentRod]

Re: USDJPY

USDJPY has been trending really well the last few days, some great trades to be had intraday .

Starting to move now after it broke the Yearly high @ 94.63.

Looking extended for Today though!

Hourly:

 

[GumbyLearner]

Re: USDJPY

USDJPY has been trending really well the last few days, some great trades to be had intraday .

Starting to move now after it broke the Yearly high @ 94.63.

Looking extended for Today though!

Hourly:

That chart looks like an erect penis!

I have doubts! And I'm certainly not a feminist!

 

[Kauri]

Re: USDJPY

That chart looks like an erect penis!

I have doubts! And I'm certainly not a feminist!

tanks... now my good lady is asking what I have been selling her these past few years..

Cheers
......... bobbitt

 

[BentRod]

Re: USDJPY

Might be off to races again.

USDJPY 15m:

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: USDJPY

The post below by CFD Trader has classic resistance at 102.50 & 103.75.That is some rise over the last few weeks.

 

[BentRod]

Re: USDJPY

The post below by CFD Trader has classic resistance at 102.50 & 103.75.That is some rise over the last few weeks.

You've lost me W

Can you post a chart?

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: USDJPY

You've lost me W

No wuz B.R. If ye scroll to post #268 (Foreign Exchange Markets Fundamental Outlook) there is a list of s & r levels submitted by a currency strategist at the bottom of the post.

Pleasure to help anyone.

 

[BentRod]

Re: USDJPY

Ah ok...now I see what you were talking about.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: USDJPY

I managed to get 1 short to stick just over 97 so at the moment its looking good.Can`t tell if that was the high for a while today but as usual the time will reveal.Looks like a shoulder and noggin has formed on the hourly though.We shall see.

One option could be to drop off around the neck and aim for the right shoulder or just in case they want to fly even higher again.

 

[BentRod]

Re: USDJPY

EURJPY rolling over too.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

Re: USDJPY

can someone tell me the yen is going to rally about 100 points please?

 

[BentRod]

Re: USDJPY

Norm....The Yen is going to rally 100 pips.