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All the mugs (that's us) are in at a record level
US stock market
- Thread starter enbee
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Yeah, they say that when incomes are down people tend to invest more.
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'invest ' rather the 'hope and gamble ' ??
good luck to those that play in the US markets
keep watching Warren Buffet ( in particular ) and watch if he continues taking cash off the table
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I've read the US Stockmarket is significantly overvalued, even Buffett thinks stocks are expensive. Trump's policies could cause stocks to go even higher and nobody knows how much higher stocks will go before the wheels fall off. The Stockmarket doesn't go up indefinitely, sometimes things go the other way.
I were using shares to boost my super balance but have moved most of it to cash. Am contemplating buying into a gold etf. I still have shares in Boss Energy as an investment.
I were using shares to boost my super balance but have moved most of it to cash. Am contemplating buying into a gold etf. I still have shares in Boss Energy as an investment.
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Ever noticed the biggest investment scams come out in downturns?
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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It does feel very 1928. Protectionism is on the way up.
But this will possibly be combined with a removal of cheap labour within the USA (undocumented workers) which may counteract some of the bad effects....if they do get removed, I doubt it.
I don't think anyone really knows what will happen. The world is very different.
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"Stock prices have reached 'what looks like permanently high plateau" Irving Fisher, September 1929.
The market collapsed 1 month later, October 28
At the time consensus at the time was the market was only heading in one direction, upwards and onwards but it can suddenly go the other way as well.
The market collapsed 1 month later, October 28
At the time consensus at the time was the market was only heading in one direction, upwards and onwards but it can suddenly go the other way as well.
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To my understanding the sequence of events was:
Globalisation topped out 1914.
WW1 1914 - 18.
Economic and stock market boom. The Dow Jones increased almost 500% from 1921 to 1929.
Stock market crash 1929 and severe economic slump.
Tariffs introduced 1930.
Stock market continued to trend lower, bottoming in 1932.
That being so, tariffs were a response to the situation part way through, they weren't the trigger for it.
This time around the details differ but the timing is remarkably similar:
Globalisation plateaued 2008.
Stock market major declines 2007 - 09 and again early 2020 since followed by a major boom.
2024 we're talking about tariffs. That's a 16 year lag from globalisation plateauing, the same as last time.
History doesn't repeat but some definite similarities there.
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Ive been watching docos on UTube to do with the great crash in 1929. The main cause was to much speculation. Traders were using pump then dump schemes against retail investors. People were putting their life savings into stocks and using borrowed money. Stock valuations towards the end were absurd and the market had completely decoupled from fundamentals in the end. People just thought just thought the market was only going to go higher and higher until it didn't. Once the market collapsed there were bank runs, half the banks in the US failed so money wasn't even safe in banks back then.
If Trump sends the Stockmarket into the stratosphere then stocks will become really high risk and no one knows how much higher stocks will go before they go bust.
If Trump sends the Stockmarket into the stratosphere then stocks will become really high risk and no one knows how much higher stocks will go before they go bust.
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I do not think Trump is sending the stock market anywhere, buyers and sellers are..
And Trump is not even in power yet
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i disagree , the insane speculation certainly exaggerated the severity of the fall , and i am assuming SOME were leveraging their investments ( always a temptation to over-leverage on assets used as collateral )
while i can only study in hindsight the great crash , i suspect several dangerous conditions are being repeated today , and the same flaws in normal human behavior
yes i agree euphoria and hopium ( and greed ) can drive stocks even higher , but i keep on looking for strategies that will NOT force me to sell , and have the profits running , rather than investment capital at risk ( but still have a dilemma on 'a safe parking space' for reserve capital .
hopefully you can devise a strategy that works for YOU ( i have no idea if mine will work .. it hasn't been properly 'crash-tested' yet )
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But Biden or his masters are acting allowing US missiles into Russia.I do not think Trump is sending the stock market anywhere, buyers and sellers are..
And Trump is not even in power yet
I somewhat think a Red square hit, by a US missile sent most probably by a NATO team , may trigger a few tactical missiles potentially nuke..
That is going to affect the stock market .
The swamp has 2 months to trigger escalation and save trillions , so imho,shiuld remain gold strong at least until Trump is in control.then unleash your nasdaq magic
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well some of the players like to front-run the market ( whether they have correct or incorrect insider information is a different question )I do not think Trump is sending the stock market anywhere, buyers and sellers are..
And Trump is not even in power yet
i am treating this as a 'relief rally ' ( sucker rally if you like )
Trump is roughly 2 months from taking office , many things can happen in two months
remember Trump was elected by the small minority that can sense the current US economy is in serious trouble ( and hope Trump will soften the impact ) the majority are locked into their tribal ideals ( or just no longer care about politics )
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The big money has jumped from gold to bitcoin, the next question is where to next?
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depends on which gold , 'paper gold/derivatives , etc. the yellow metal calmly stored at home ( NOT some official vault )
if the former money is flowing out of the traditional system ( risk v. reward ) if the latter .. it strongly hints 'risk on' ( seeking maximum capital gains )
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Although I think one major difference between now and the roaring 1920s is the inflationary bias in the system is much greater now. Back in the 1920s the world was still on a classical (full) gold standard. Now we are an on full fiat standard. I think a stagflationary rerun of the 1960s and 1970s is a lot more likely than a deflationary rerun of the 1930s
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