Rents Peak in Housing Glut; New York Escapes Decline (Update3)
By Kathleen M. Howley
May 2 (Bloomberg) -- The glut of U.S. properties for sale is about to hit the rental market.
A record number of homeowners who can't sell condominiums and houses are competing for tenants with the country's biggest apartment owners led by Chicago-based Equity Residential, said Jack McCabe, the founder of Deerfield Beach, Florida-based McCabe Research & Consulting LLC.
Metropolitan New York, where demand for housing exceeds supply, may be the only place where rents increase, albeit at a slower pace, he said.
``Competition already is forcing the big apartment owners to offer concessions like two months free rent,'' McCabe said.
Vacant rental apartments rose to 6.1 percent in the U.S. during the first quarter, the most in almost two years, even as the average monthly rent reached a record $991, said Sam Chandan, chief economist of New York-based real estate research company Reis Inc. Vacancies will continue to rise through 2007, he said. New York had the lowest number of vacant units in the first quarter, according to Reis data.
Nationwide, 2.8 percent of houses for sale were unoccupied in the first quarter, the highest since the Census Department started collecting the data in 1956. Unsold properties on the market totaled a record 3.45 million in 2006, according to the Chicago- based National Association of Realtors.
``Unsold properties being turned into rental units are creating a shadow market that's driving up the vacancy rate and slowing the growth of rents,'' Chandan said in an interview. ``Areas that saw the most speculative investing, particularly in condos, will see the biggest pressure on rents.''
Reluctant Landlords
Anthony De Silva said he's not happy to become a landlord. He bought a two-bedroom condominium on the ocean in Hollywood, Florida, 18 months ago expecting to sell at a $100,000 profit. Instead, he's looking for tenants at $1,700 a month.
``I don't want to sell for less than I paid, so my only choice is to rent it,'' said De Silva, 45, a New Yorker who made $80,000 in November 2005 by flipping, or selling quickly, his first Florida real estate investment, a condominium in Fort Lauderdale. At the time, prices had gained 29 percent from a year earlier, the peak of the market in that area.
The increase in competition from landlords like De Silva is spurring apartment owners to offer enticements. Lincoln Green Apartments, a Philadelphia complex that rents units from $840 to $1,370 a month, is offering two months free rent for people who sign a one-year lease. Citrus Park Apartments in Tampa, Florida, and Ten Faxon in Quincy, Massachusetts, have the same deal.
Hidden Inventory
``Increasing vacancies does not bode well for rental incomes,'' said Nabil N. El-Hage, a professor at Harvard Business School in Boston, across the Charles River from Harvard University's main campus in Cambridge, Massachusetts. ``We've seen a softening in apartment REITs as a result.''
A Bloomberg index of 19 apartment-focused real estate investment trusts, or REITs, has fallen 14 percent over the last three months, the longest consecutive monthly decline since a three-month rout that ended February 2003.
Frustrated sellers who become landlords have created an inventory of for-sale properties that could derail a housing recovery next year, Chandan said. If home sales improve in early 2008, as predicted by Freddie Mac, the No. 2 mortgage buyer, properties now being rented could reappear in 12 months time to flood the spring market.
Prices Weak
``Those homes that are disappearing off the sales market can just as easily appear again when demand is stronger,'' he said.
U.S. real estate prices ``continued to weaken'' in many districts during March and April, the Federal Reserve said last week in its regional survey known as the Beige Book for the color of its cover. The report cited the San Francisco and Richmond, Virginia, markets as ``falling or soft.'' Sales declined in the Cleveland, Atlanta, Kansas City, and St. Paul, Minnesota regions, the Federal Reserve said.
The exception was New York, where homes were ``selling well,'' the Fed survey said. Manhattan's median apartment price rose 1.2 percent to $835,000 in the first quarter from a year earlier, said Jonathan Miller, president of New York residential appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. For all of the U.S., the median fell 2.1 percent to $212,300, according to Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage buyer.
`Further Stress'
The city's average rent was $2,605 a month in the first quarter, the highest in the nation, and the vacancy rate was the lowest, at 2.5 percent, according to Reis. Fairfield County, Connecticut, had a 3 percent vacancy rate, central New Jersey was 3.6 percent, and New York's Long Island was 3.9 percent, fueled by demand from New York commuters, said Chandan of Reis.
In markets such as South Florida, Nevada and Arizona that led the country in speculative buying, owners who can't rent their properties may default on their mortgages, Chandan said.
``A bigger supply of units for rent means fewer opportunities for speculative owners to cover their mortgage payments by renting,'' Chandan said. ``It has the potential of placing further stress on mortgage performance that has already deteriorated because of subprime defaults.''
Many houses that end up in foreclosure probably will be bought by investors who rent them until demand improves, adding to supply on the market, said Martin Cohen, co-chief executive officer of New York-based Cohen & Steers Inc., which oversees almost $34 billion.
More Rentals
The Center for Responsible Lending in Durham, North Carolina, said in a December study that as many as 2.2 million borrowers are at risk of losing their homes, at a potential cost of $164 billion, from subprime mortgages originated from 1998 through 2006.
``If you get foreclosures of homes, they're going to be homes for rent,'' said Cohen, whose firm holds 4.8 million shares of AvalonBay Communities Inc., a Washington-based real estate investment trust that owns 49,400 apartments. Shares of AvalonBay dropped 17 percent since February, after surging 47 percent in the prior 12 months.
Rachael Babinchak, a real estate agent, is trying to rent an investment property she bought for $224,000 last May in Phoenix, after home prices climbed 26 percent from a year earlier. Since then, demand has dropped because of a glut of for-sale properties and prices have ``softened,'' she said.
Babinchak is asking $1,100 a month for the two-bedroom house on the north side of the city, with a one-car garage, a pool and a hot tub. The average rent in Phoenix was $756 in the first quarter and the vacancy rate was 7 percent, exceeding the national average, according to Reis.
`Elevated Inventories'
``I didn't buy an investment property with the hopes of being a landlord, but I'm not going to get a good price right now,'' Babinchak said. As soon as the real estate market rebounds, she said she'll put the property back up for sale.
Demand to purchase real estate will begin to improve in the final quarter of 2007, the Mortgage Bankers Association said last week. Until then, home prices may decline 2 percent, the Washington group said on April 24.
The average U.S. rate for a 30- year fixed mortgage probably will be 6.4 percent this year, matching the 2006 rate, the trade group said.
``Elevated inventories of unsold homes, especially those for vacant units, should put downward pressures on home prices,'' the report said.
Sales of existing homes, including condominiums and single- family houses, may fall to 5.55 million this year from 5.71 million in 2006, the National Association of Homebuilders said last week. Sales reached an all-time high of 6.18 million in 2005.
Housing Starts
Single-family housing starts will drop to 1.16 million this year, the lowest since 1.13 million in 1997, the Washington-based trade group said. Starts will rebound to 1.23 million next year, it said.
The drop in construction will help shave 1 percentage point off economic growth this year, the homebuilders said. The U.S. gross domestic product will expand 2.3 percent this year, slowing from 3.3 percent in 2006, the trade group said.
``The market is flooded with condominiums,'' said De Silva, who has yet to find a tenant for his 1,200-square-foot property in Florida.
The New Yorker left his Manhattan job in 2005 to become a full-time real estate investor, using equity from his condominium on the Upper West Side. He invested in two Florida properties, the one he sold for a profit and the one he now is trying to rent.
Hoping For Profit
De Silva signed a contract to buy the 11th floor unit at the Residences on Hollywood Beach from a developer in April 2005 for $400,000, expecting to sell it for $500,000 when the deal closed six months later. Trump Hollywood is going up next door, with 200 luxury condominiums in a 40-story building.
His apartment faces westward toward the Intracoastal Waterway and has a balcony with views of the sunset, De Silva said. The kitchen has grey granite countertops and maple cabinets.
He rented the unit for six months last year to help pay the mortgage and condominium fees that total about $1,700 a month.
``I didn't want to be a landlord, but I had to bite the bullet so I can afford to wait for a real estate recovery,'' said De Silva, who last week started a full-time job as a project manager for a construction firm, consulting with New York City on renovating school buildings.
``I'm hoping the good times for real estate will be back in next year's spring market,'' he said.
$14,000 per year field worker buys $720,000 home
Despite making only $14,000 a year, strawberry picker Alberto Ramirez managed to buy his own slice of the American Dream. But his Hollister home came with a hefty price tag - $720,000.
A year and a half later, Ramirez has defaulted on his loan, and he's hoping to sell the house before it's repossessed. And according to many housing advocates and civil rights groups, Ramirez is not alone. As mortgage foreclosures rise, many minorities are suffering.
Brown said the language barrier (Ramirez, a native Spanish speaker, is not fluent in English, and spoke to the Free Lance through a translator) can also play a big role.
"When you go into Washington Mutual ... you can't always get someone to speak your language," she said.
"The real estate boom covered a multitude of sins," Simmons said. "Once the market started depreciating, the rug was pulled back to show the rot underneath."
http://people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/Bakersfieldbubble/8815
You don't need to. Check out FWD.If only our dollar wasnt so strong, i'd start up a caravan export business......
hahahahahahhaahhah!
You don't need to. Check out FWD.
Absolutely fantastic chart too. Lol!
U.S. Median Home Price Tumbles to 2-Year Low in Slump (Update2)
By Kathleen M. Howley
May 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. median home price tumbled to a two-year low in the first quarter as prices fell in almost half of U.S. cities, the National Association of Realtors said.
The median price for houses and condominiums slid 1.8 percent to $212,300 in the first three months of this year, the lowest since the first quarter of 2005 when it was $199,700, the Chicago- based real estate trade group said. The median price for a single- family home fell in 62 of the 145 metropolitan areas the group studied.
Tumbling prices sparked an increase in sales as bargain shoppers snapped up the cheaper properties. Seasonally adjusted, home sales rose 2.4 percent to an annualized 6.41 million from 6.26 million in the fourth quarter, the association said. Compared with a year earlier, the number of sales fell 6.6 percent.
The first quarter's sales will probably be the highest of the year, the realtors said. Purchases of previously owned homes likely will fall 3.5 percent in the second quarter to an annualized pace of 6.19 million, increasing to 6.34 million by the end of 2007, the group said in a May 8 forecast.
Median prices probably will slide in the second and third quarters and be flat in the final three months of the year, the realtors said. Prices will begin to rise in 2008, though at less than a percentage point every quarter, the group forecast.
Slump Persists
Declining prices, coupled with a report today that shows foreclosures are continuing to rise, demonstrate that the year- long housing slump isn't abating.
U.S. homebuilders have already said that the spring selling season for new houses was a disappointment after earlier this year forecasting the beginning of a housing recovery. Tighter lending standards and the collapse of several subprime mortgage companies have made it more difficult for buyers to get home loans.
U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 62 percent in April from a year earlier and the number of households falling behind on mortgages probably will climb further this year as home prices fall and lending standards rise, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
California, Florida and Ohio led the U.S. in filings. There were 147,708 default notices, auction sale letters and bank repossessions last month as declining prices made it harder to refinance, particularly for borrowers with poor or limited credit, the Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure data said today. April's total compares with 91,168 filings a year earlier.
Foreclosures are being ``fueled by a combustible mix of risky loans taken out in the last few years -- many in the subprime market -- and slowing home price appreciation,'' said James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, in a statement.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acTRbno5hjVA&refer=home
Home builders' confidence falls back to 16-year low
May 15, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Tightening lending standards shook U.S. home builders in May, sending a gauge of their confidence back down to a 16-year low, an industry trade group reported Tuesday.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index slid three points to 30 in May, matching the 16-year low set in September. Economists were predicting the home builders' index would remain at 33, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. The results show that roughly one-third of builders have confidence in the housing market.
"This weakness suggests we should not expect a sustained rebound in starts anytime soon," wrote Drew Matus, an economist with Lehman Bros.
The report comes one day ahead of the government's report on housing starts and building permits for April. Economists expect 3% declines for both starts and permits. See Economic Preview.
"Builders are feeling the impacts of tighter lending standards on current home sales as well as cancellations, and they are bracing for continued challenges ahead," said NAHB President Brian Catalde, a home builder from El Segundo, Calif., in a statement.
"The crisis in the subprime sector has infected other parts of the mortgage market as well as consumer psychology, and as a result the housing outlook has deteriorated," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders.
Banks have clamped down on subprime lending and on so-called nontraditional loans such as interest-only loans, option adjustable-rate mortgages, and no-documentation mortgages. According to Federal Reserve data released Monday, at least 44% of domestic banks tightened their mortgage lending standards in the first quarter, the largest tightening in the 17-year history of the survey.
While most of the tightening of standards came in the subprime and nontraditional segments, some banks were even tightening standards for prime borrowers with the best credit, the Fed said.
Seiders said he doesn't expect any improvement in housing sales or production until late this year. "We're expecting the early stages of the subsequent recovery to be quite sluggish," he said.
"We believe that the housing recession is likely to be deeper and longer than the consensus view, which sees housing activity soon leveling out," wrote Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank.
All three components of the housing market index declined in May. The index of current sales fell two points to 31, a low for this business cycle. The index for future sales fell three points to 41, the lowest since September. The index for buyer traffic at developments dropped four points to 23, also the lowest since September.
Builders' confidence fell in three of four regions. In the South, the index dropped four points to 33. The index fell three points to 32 in the West and six points to 32 in the Northeast. It rose one point to 23 in the Midwest.
The index was at 46 a year ago, and 70 two years ago. It peaked at 72 in June 2005.
This guy screwed up monumentally in the US housing bubble, took out 2.2 million in liar loans
Now, I wonder how many in Australia are in a similar position?!??!?
Plenty - They appear on Today Tonight and A Current Affair each week. Ten plus properties all on 100% finance, because everyone knows houses only go up. It's a sure thing.
Love the video. Especially the bit about the wife said, are you sure you want to buy all these houses this fast? Are you sure you know what you are doing. - He replied, "no problems. We'll get your Credit Cards paid off - no problems."
Now when he has 6 houses in foreclosure, and 15,000 in month mortgage payments the wife said told you so. But by the sounds of it, after the 'told you so moments', the Wife still loves him. He said "Were o.k."
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The pace of U.S. home construction advanced by 2.5 percent in April to a rate that beat analysts' expectations but building permit activity, which signals future construction plans, sunk to the lowest pace in nearly a decade, a government report on Wednesday showed.
The Commerce Department said housing starts hit a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.528 million. That was above the 1.490 million pace analysts were expecting after a first reported 1.518 million rate in March that the government revised down to 1.491 million.
Building permits, which signal future construction plans, dropped in April by 8.9 percent to a pace of 1.429 million units. That was the slowest pace since June of 1997 when the pace stood at 1.402 million and well below expectations for 1.525 million units.
Even though housing starts increased in April to the highest pace since December 2006, they were down 16 percent from a year ago and, in a sign the troubled housing market may not be turning the corner as quickly as hoped, building permits were off 28.1 percent from a year ago.
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The government's latest data adds to the pessimistic outlook on Tuesday by the National Association of Home Builders, which reported that home builder sentiment sank in May as lenders made it more difficult for borrowers to qualify for mortgages and order cancellations mounted.
Maybe you are reading it the wrong way - you need special filtering glasses that only allows you to see good news, and a big red BUY button on your keyboard, usually under the control of a baboon .Dow Futures went up initially...but after you read it, it doesn't look so rosey after all.
Cheers,
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