US mortgage carnage

[Uncle Festivus]

Home-builder stocks traded lower Monday after one of Wall Street's more bullish analysts cut his stance on the sector and pushed back his expectations for a bottom in the housing market.

Citigroup analyst Stephen Kim downgraded his near-term outlook on home-builders and said that he doesn't anticipate optimistic data on residential housing until the second quarter of 2008.

.......

The Citigroup downgrade comes along with fears that some cash-strapped builders may not be able to make it to see any housing recovery.

Levitt and Sons, a unit of Levitt Corp. and 37 of its subsidiaries recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing the "sudden and steep" housing pullback in Florida and the Southeast.

Another Florida-based builder, Tousa Inc., earlier this month said that its quarterly loss widened and that it may be forced to file for Chapter 11 due to the housing slump. The stock was suspended from the New York Stock Exchange and now trades over the counter.

.......

"If the housing crunch lasts for more than another year, as now seems likely, many of the companies in this space are likely to run into very difficult liquidity issues," wrote analysts at Weeden & Co. in a note Monday. They examined builders such as Tousa, Hovnanian and Standard Pacific which are seen as in danger of falling into bankruptcy.

.......

So who actually owns the property?

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=7A645145-17A4-1130-F5C649FAD45219B9

 

[happytrader]

Interesting thread. I note Donald Trump is saying its a good time to 'buy real estate' A NZ friend recently bought a house in the US and could not believe how much more he got for his money.

Cheers
Happytrader

 

[Diewlei]

Here is another massive one

HSBC shares fall in Hong Kong after news of SIV bailout

Nov 27, 2007 - 11:44:00 HKT
Xinhua News Feed
HONG KONG (Thomson Financial) - Shares of HSBC Holdings plc
fell sharply on the Hong Kong bourse Tuesday after Europe's
largest lender said it plans bail out two of its structured
investment vehicles (SIVs) with a total of 35 billion US
dollars to avoid liquidation.
HSBC was last down 3.10 Hong Kong dollars or 2.3 percent at
130.40 dollars, off an earlier low of 129.40 dollars, also its
lowest price level in more than a year.
The bank said it plans to provide liquidity assistance and
term funding to reorganize its two SIVs -- Cullinan Finance
Ltd and Asscher Finance Ltd.
Analysts are expecting HSBC to absorb losses resulting from
the bailout, despite an assurance by the bank that it does not
expect material losses or capital requirement as a result of
the restructuring.
"HSBC claims that given that income note holders would
continue to be liable for credit losses, they do not expect a
material earnings impact," said JP Morgan analyst Sunil Garg.
"We remain skeptical given the reputation risk associated with
letting investors absorb losses in what is in effect an
HSBC-associated entity. As such, we remain of the view that
any credit losses on the two SIVs would eventually be borne by
HSBC shareholders," he said.
The SIVs sell short-term debt, such as unsecured commercial
paper, to investors such as hedge funds, then use the proceeds
to buy longer-term assets, like mortgage-backed securities,
that yield richer returns.
SIVs normally generate money through fees and the difference
between short-term and long-term rates. But demand for
short-term assets has vanished in the midst of the US housing
market implosion, creating liquidity problems for the vehicles.
Analysts said HSBC's move to bail out its SIVs could be an
indication of a worsening credit problems in the US.
"Investors think HSBC's move could mean the problems in the US are worse than expected," said Tony Tong, analyst with China
Everbright Securities.
"Asia may not be affected by it directly, but due to worsening
sentiment over the credit situation in the US, we know it's
not entirely insulated from the problem," he said.

Seems there still is some more s&^% that still has to hit the fan

 

[Aussiejeff]

Grrrr!

Who's goddamn-well in charge of this here planet's finances!

What? You say NOBODY IS ACTUALLY IN CONTROL????

**faints**


AJ

 

[Wysiwyg]

The flaming Bush departs, the war in Iraq ends and the American people reunite to prosper.

 

[Kimosabi]

Grrrr!

Who's goddamn-well in charge of this here planet's finances!

What? You say NOBODY IS ACTUALLY IN CONTROL????

**faints**


AJ

haha, who cares it's just thin air....

 

[macca]

This news item has been around a few days but I thought we should have a link on this thread

It seems that with all the slicing and dicing that has been done with the CDO's they appear to have lost track of who actually owns the mortgage



<<Here comes the hair in the soup. The Judge asked Deutsche Bank to show documents proving legal title to the 14 homes. DB could not. All DB attorneys could show was a document showing only an “intent to convey the rights in the mortgages.” They could not produce the actual mortgage, the heart of Western property rights since the Magna Charta if not longer.>>

link his here

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1930097/posts

That is not a cat among the pidgeons, that is a Bl**dy great tiger, this hasn't been headlined anywhere that I have seen but I think they are trying to keep it quiet so all of the borrowers don't say OK show me the mortgage papers !!

If they can't prove the mortgage then NO ONE has to pay, ALL of the loans could default

 

[ithatheekret]

Oh chit and we bought outright

 

[lusk]

The US government is now starting to really interfere with the liquidation process looks like the "slow down" is going to be a "great slow down" and become long and drawn out. Bye bye US :grenade:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/bushs-5year-rate-rescue/2007/12/07/1196812961541.html

 

[wayneL]

The US government is now starting to really interfere with the liquidation process looks like the "slow down" is going to be a "great slow down" and become long and drawn out. Bye bye US :grenade:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/bushs-5year-rate-rescue/2007/12/07/1196812961541.html

The next "new deal"?

 

[Aussiejeff]

HEY PARDNERS! Will yer lookie over yonder ... why ah do believe ah can see tha Big Chief "Burnin' Bush" a'ridin thither ter save us all!! He's a-hollerin' an' a-hootin', declarin' them lowdown dirty carpet-baggin' bankers ain't gonna raise their cotton-pickin INTEREST RATES any mo' - fo at least FIVE GOD-DAMN YEARS! HALLELUJAH brothers - we is ALL SAVED!!!

***YEE-HAR!!!!***





AJ

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The Panic Plan V2

After Panic Plan V1 failed (assurances of containment, then 50 bp's interest rate cut) failed, we go to stage 2.

Regrettable qoutes, or, 'Did I say that then? what I meant to say was...' -

"The mortgage plan is a diffusion of panic. It neutralizes the panic, and that's really what the market has been reflecting," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research, in Shrewsbury, New Jersey.

"Right now it looks like more of a slowdown scenario for the economy rather than a situation where we're going to fall off a cliff. At the same time, we're seeing positive vibes from the Federal Reserve."

Like we'd see negative vibes form Goldman Sachs, woops, the Fed I mean.

Now, back to reality....

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Housing markets from Punta Gorda, Florida, to Stockton, California, will crash and suffer price drops of more than 30 percent before the housing crisis is over, a report from Moody's Economy.com said on Thursday.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Prices of existing U.S. single-family homes in the third quarter slumped 4.5 percent from a year earlier, matching a record decline from the previous period as the housing downturn deepened, according to a national home price index on Tuesday.

The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index fell 1.7 percent from June, marking the largest quarterly decline in the index's 21-year history, S&P said in a statement.

Yes, 'slowing' down for sure, at a 'measured' & 'contained' pace?

Watch the homebuilders.......

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Closely watched residential builder Toll Brothers Inc. on Thursday said it swung to its first quarterly loss as a public company, as the chief executive said this year was the most challenging in its history.


The Horsham, Pa.-based company reported a fiscal fourth-quarter ending Oct. 31 loss of $81.8 million, or 52 cents a share, including $314.9 million of pretax inventory-related impairments and related write-downs.
Revenue for the quarter ended Oct. 31 fell to $1.17 billion from $1.81 billion in the year-ago period.
"By many measures, fiscal 2007 was the most challenging of the forty years that Toll Brothers has been in business," said Chief Executive Robert Toll in the earnings release.

 

[ithatheekret]

Is this the demise of the binary dollar ?

Will the theories of Neoclassical economics be rewritten ? Flaws and all .....

Has the rule of optimization been totally disregarded ?

Is the general equilibrium theory about to be remodelled ?


These are just a few questions posed during discussions with friends and colleagues .

Does anyone in the forum have a view on these topics ?

 

[Kimosabi]

http://ml-implode.com/

200 US Mortgage companies have now been vapourised...

 

[explod]

Is this the demise of the binary dollar ?

Will the theories of Neoclassical economics be rewritten ? Flaws and all .....

Has the rule of optimization been totally disregarded ?

Is the general equilibrium theory about to be remodelled ?


These are just a few questions posed during discussions with friends and colleagues .

Does anyone in the forum have a view on these topics ?

A number of us have been trying to get this through to you all for most of this year but you just think we are a pack of doomsayers so we are fed up with trying any more. Just have a good read of this weekends Financial Review. The game is up, reports of some of the US s biggest finacial houses out this next fortnight will do the rest. Those believing the Dow is going to reach new heights are either trying us on for size or dreaming.

I am very optomistic for gold and when it is all over I intend to buy a house again. Doom, not on your life, opportunities. Only thing I hate is that many innocents are going to suffer.

Festive season regards to you all. explod

 

[ithatheekret]

Sorry to distress you Explod , I only put it to the forum for / to articulate on .

Without sounding forward , I'll take your response as a "yes " ..............

I was interested in hearing points that detract from the confabulations we are constantly sprayed with C/- CNBC and Bloomberg etc. and all the other cash for comment programmes .

But the last place I would look for an analytical response is the AFR , I'm just not that interested in fence sitters and go with the flow economics enough to waste a dollar and a tree on buying their rag .

 

[explod]

Sorry to distress you Explod , I only put it to the forum for / to articulate on .

Without sounding forward , I'll take your response as a "yes " ..............

I was interested in hearing points that detract from the confabulations we are constantly sprayed with C/- CNBC and Bloomberg etc. and all the other cash for comment programmes .

But the last place I would look for an analytical response is the AFR , I'm just not that interested in fence sitters and go with the flow economics enough to waste a dollar and a tree on buying their rag .

No offence taken at all, in fact I think your contirbutions are excellent. Anyway why be nice all the time and mince words, we are playing /investing the real stuff. Only buy AFR on some Saturdays whilst I wait for No1 over coffee outside the supermarket. But this caught my eye:- quote

"THEY NEED A MIRACLE ON WALL STREET THIS CHRISTMAS

Last December's profit feast on Wall Street has turned into a fish bowl of mush. Fiscal fourth-quarter results that will be reported over the next two weeks by Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Bear Steards and Morgan Stanley are sure to sap Wall Street's holiday cheer.
Unlike the third quarter, the full brunt of the credit crisis rattling the globe will be reflected..." ...Reuters. [end quote] it goes on but you get the drift.

They can crapon all they like on Wall Street but eventually the real stories have to be told. At the moment the knife is going through the juggular, the blood loss will be apparrent very soon

 

[ithatheekret]

Oh they need a miracle , J. Bush maybe instead of burning bush hang on ........ burning bush sounds better .

What I'm vexed over is that for all the crisis deepening we are seeing , nobody has hung an underwriter out to dry yet .

When and if , they had correctly done the job they are renumerated for , the market would not be in such a tizzy on credit swaps , mops and plops , right now .

Of course , whilst we hear many reinterations on their position , to the point of nausea for myself , I cannot get past the fact that I witnessed their calls personally . One famous one that must of hit every repeater Telstra has , was the man with the bells and whistles Jim Cramer . Quote " now is not the time to be in oil " Unquote . Then the sheeple econos here , regurgitated it .

What did Jim recommend ? Airline stocks ! My comment at the time was .... " ya made it up " .

But Jim said it ......... and he made a squillion in the real bull (bubble) market , he even had an editorial on the WSJ . Just please tell me athieists don't believe him ..... please , otherwise I'll need a course of something strong .

Rene Rivkin was one too ( not speaking ill of ) ........ " oil will go back to $22 ". ( it was $40 ) , the first fellow capitalist that lost my support with that comment ..... of course there was Pasminco , that must have lit his lights .

David Murray , you know the bloke who Telstra reckons can't figure out renumeration packages , reshaped that into Zinifex and renumerated himself nicely from what I saw . Which bank helped too .

I read the AFR articles on PAS/ZFX .... cough , cough , cough . No further comment needed .

But economics have been replaced by spin to win , values have been thrown out the window , followed quickly by rational thinking .

The same mantra comes out , right on queue , all the time , that's something I've learnt to get over , after all it is just noise and spin .

You see if they can't convince you , then they'll try to confuse you .

Fortunately we have this thing called t.v. now and can see them , we can't smell it , but body language says it all .

So why do I watch these programmes ?

It's what's not in the news that I'm concerned about . When they don't report on it , I get out my Ockhams Razor hat and deduct that it is serious .

Just a side note , I wouldn't trust most of the above mentioned with my kids lunch money , yet alone my savings and investment strategies . ( except for Davo , he was good for 3% )

I have noted , that I am going in the opposite direction to some following the mantra and it's tools . To the point that close friends have even commented regularly , which has brought out the questions I put to the forum . I'm not a bear or a bull , I'm a market realist , not interested in visions one bit , unless they see the virgin M. , but I'll save that one for a nominalism debate .

 

[ithatheekret]

AAA reratings ???????

 

[robots]

hello,

whats the big deal,

some people in US have got to live in a "really nice" house for a few years then handed back the keys, they have no idea and still dont

people will loose money, big deal, many people have lost money buying stocks, lets get a thread going on that one

nothing much will happen, things will roll on,

thankyou

robots