URNM - BetaShares Global Uranium ETF

[Dona Ferentes]

a rally on the back of a rally

Selected to gain value in 2024.

...definitely a good start to 2024

 

[houtman]

Holdings at 19 Dec 2023.

View attachment 167536
The same top 3 top three (43%) , ASX listed companies get a boost.

Kazatomprom ( 2nd on the list) put out an announcement last night saying they wouldn't reach production targets for 2024 due to acid shortages...

Usually this would result in a price downgrade, but not this time, although Kaz wasn't up as much as others, it was still green.

U price also jumped, now comfortably over $100/lb.

Kaz had been seen as a company that could possibly increase supply to meet the rising U price so no doubt some U buyers spat their coffee out when they read the announcement.

 

[Sean K]

Kazatomprom ( 2nd on the list) put out an announcement last night saying they wouldn't reach production targets for 2024 due to acid shortages...

Usually this would result in a price downgrade, but not this time, although Kaz wasn't up as much as others, it was still green.

U price also jumped, now comfortably over $100/lb.

Kaz had been seen as a company that could possibly increase supply to meet the rising U price so no doubt some U buyers spat their coffee out when they read the announcement.

I've seen a few graphs with a significant shortage brewing from next year or so.

Is $100 a futures price?

There must be a correction soon, shirley. It supposed to be up by the stairs and down by the elevator, but this is just all elevator. Not complaining, yet.

 

[houtman]

I've seen a few graphs with a significant shortage brewing from next year or so.

Is $100 a futures price?

There must be a correction soon, shirley. It supposed to be up by the stairs and down by the elevator, but this is just all elevator. Not complaining, yet.

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I’ve found the reported U price varies a lot between sites.

It seems to me that
Kitco lags a lot, Market Insider lags a lot less.

There are some extremely bullish calls out there, along with the opposite.

Tulips or Apple?
I’ve only got 5% in U, so happy to play.

 

[houtman]

@Sean K , just following on, Markets Insider website has now updated to $104 for 12/1/24 while kitco is still showing $92.

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K , just following on, Markets Insider website has now updated to $104 for 12/1/24 while kitco is still showing $92.

Any idea why the prices are so different? Is Trading Economics just lagging?

 

[houtman]

Any idea why the prices are so different? Is Trading Economics just lagging?

No idea Sean, going off this graph it looks like the price from 8/1/24.
So whether they lag by a few days or only do weekly updates?
Would have to track it to see.

 

[Sean K]

 

[qldfrog]

I put this link here: comparative analysis of uranium shares..not directly this ETF, but I guess suitable place for people interested
Disclaimer I own pdn and Boe in my super
https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/which-asx-uranium-stock-offers-the-best-value

 

[peter2]

Jan 24 update: The price of URNM broke out of the horizontal chart pattern as the underlying price of uranium rallies higher. The POU continues to go higher (now $106) and there's no doubt that URNM will go higher with it. Go, you good thing.

Production downgrades from the Russian miner, Kazatomprom and Cameco should support this rally.

Current ETF units - 10.8M Last distribution of 0.01.

 

[Sean K]

Can change this red resistance to blue support I guess.

 

[Sean K]

Just a matter of how much higher uranium can go I suppose. The parabolic rise is looking very much like 2006/7. Concerning.

 

[Sean K]

Jan 24 update: The price of URNM broke out of the horizontal chart pattern as the underlying price of uranium rallies higher. The POU continues to go higher (now $106) and there's no doubt that URNM will go higher with it. Go, you good thing.

Production downgrades from the Russian miner, Kazatomprom and Cameco should support this rally.

Current ETF units - 10.8M Last distribution of 0.01.

Been a nice healthy pause and consolidation in this Pete. Not sure what's going to stop uranium going well this year except an accident.

 

[Sean K]

Sprott URNM taking a break and hitting support. Expect the Beta ETF to do the same today.

There didn't seem to be any reason for a 5% drop overnight that I can find.

 

[peter2]

POU is drifting lower and the ETFs are following it down. I will be watching this sector for the next swing up.

Sentiment not helped by sudden cancellation of SMR being built in Idaho. I seems the costs were much more than anticipated. A significant setback for SMRs.

 

[Sean K]

These two are out synch a little but close enough. Hanging onto vague support zones. Obviously the uranium run up was nuts so a correction was well overdue. I really hate parabolic moves. It might seem like fun while it's running, but experience and history says that the harder the run the harder the fall. The overall narrative is still in place. If the US had have put more restrictions on enriched uranium out of Russia it might have kept running. Maybe the World needs to announce domestic plans to control the entire supply chain outside of Russia.

 

[Sean K]

This has held up pretty well considering the POU significant pull pack / consolidation. Happy with that.

 

[peter2]

March 2024 update: The price of uranium has fallen to <$90. This has caused most uranium share prices to fall from their recent highs.

URNM has also pulled-back to the prior BO level. So long as the price stays above $80 this will encourage developing mines to continue with their projects.

 

[Sean K]

URNM being consolidating nicely above the break up in Jan.

All on the back of POU taking a break, but apparently the POU is less of an issue for producers and near term producers as longer term contracts are being written to lock in supply. POU going up will obviously be a perceived plus and especially good for developers who are about to start signing contracts. Companies with mines in mothballs not racing back to production are treading water.

 

[peter2]

April 24 update: Damn, @Sean K has beaten me to it.

POU has pulled-back a little but seems to have found support above $80/t. Hanging in there with plenty of potential upside for this ETF.