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Uranium

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I was a bit surprised to learn that Borats home Kazakhstan, is the largets producer of uranium.
From Oil price.com
1705531390646.png

That last sentence also took me by surprise.
I had always assumed, obviously wrongly, that Russia produces all of its uranium supply for domestic use and then some.
perhaps that might have been true when Borats home was part of the USSR.
But to add to the drama, it seems that supply from Kazakhstan might not meet production targets.
From the same article
1705531667901.png

Looks like there will be plenty of legs in the uranium market yet.
And of course, here in OZ, all the experts have written off nuclear as yesterdays technology.
Lucky for us, our experts are superior to all the other experts in other countries.

Mick
 
Noticed Niger has fallen after a change of government. The French were forced out in December and the US looks likely to follow. Apparently the yellow cake is going to Iran/Russia. Will this create any gaps in the market?
 
moXJO said:
Noticed Niger has fallen after a change of government. The French were forced out in December and the US looks likely to follow. Apparently the yellow cake is going to Iran/Russia. Will this create any gaps in the market?
Click to expand...

Not sure who was receiving the cake from Niger prior to this eventuation. Maybe France? Niger setting itself up as a target of the Anglo/Franco allies which isn't very smart.

www.bbc.com

Niger's junta revokes military agreement with US

In a damning statement, a spokesperson decries Washington's "condescending attitude" towards Niger.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
From Market Index Evening Wrap by Carl Capolingua

Uranium Futures (COMEX)​

Uranium_Futures__COMEX__4_April_2024.png

The uranium futures price is at a critical technical juncture​

The uranium futures price is at a critical technical juncture. After a very strong short term uptrend between July 2023 and January, a steady corrective phase saw it retrace to the long term uptrend ribbon.

While we're on the topic of key components of my technical analysis method, let me add another! My trend ribbons offer dynamic support on the way up and dynamic resistance on the way down.

For uranium, it's a case of the long term uptrend ribbon offering dynamic support, as you can see clearly with the price bouncing steadily since the 13 March low at 83.15.

Just as important, is a confirmation of this support in the form of rising troughs. This confirms the market has moved back to a buy the dip mentality. Wednesday's formation of a higher trough at 87.20 is encouraging in this regard.

A close above 89.40 will confirm a move back to rising peaks, and therefore signal continued supply removal. Rising peaks and rising troughs is another key component of my technical analysis method.

Looking forward, I suggest that while the price continues to close above 83.15 the long term trend is intact. A close above the short term downtrend ribbon will remove the final short term barrier impeding a potential move back to the 18 January high at 107.25.
 

Mar 8, 2024 #uranium #nuclearpower #nuclearenergy
Jeremy Szafron, Anchor at Kitco News, interviews Scott Melbye, CEO of Uranium Royalty Corporation, about the uranium market's stellar year. Melbye talks about the current trends, challenges, and the bright future of uranium investment in the context of the clean energy transition. From price surges to geopolitical influences and the push towards nuclear energy, Melbye unpacks the exciting global nuclear energy transition in a fight for energy independence and less carbon.
 
Update from Market Index Evening Wrap by Carl Capolingua

Uranium COMEX​

Uranium_Futures_COMEX_11_April_2024.png

Close to resuming the long term uptrend​

We looked at uranium in last Thursday's Evening Wrap, noting it was "at a critical technical juncture". I noted ideally we wanted to see the uranium price close above the 89.40 point of supply to confirm the hold of the long term uptrend ribbon and commence a new price action uptrend.

Last night's rise sets another higher trough at 88, and moves the uranium price one step closer to sealing the deal.

The short term trend ribbon has converged with the current price, and a close above this important zone of dynamic supply would be an even greater signal the market has returned to a state of demand-side control.

A close below the 83.15 major point of supply would spell the end of this long term uptrend.
 
Today's spike in ASX uranium stocks brought to you by disclosure of a 5% holding in DYL by a Canadian asset mgt company, MMCao Fund.
This fund also holds a significant holding in AEE awaiting a favourable decision in Sweden.
 
peter2 said:
Today's spike in ASX uranium stocks brought to you by disclosure of a 5% holding in DYL by a Canadian asset mgt company, MMCao Fund.
This fund also holds a significant holding in AEE awaiting a favourable decision in Sweden.
Click to expand...

DYL, LOT and URNM the only things green on my screen in a sea of red. Was wondering what was going on out there. Thought POU might have shot up or new reactors announced in the EU, or something. Only slightly buffeting my 1.7% down on the day. :-(
 
I posted this info as I think this boost will be short lived. Overnight the URA ETF tanked 5% along with most of the major commodity markets.

Only -1.7% eh, what about yesterday's +2%. Forgot about that already? :D
 
Well, this is interesting. After yesterday's uranium freefall (-5%) today's open is +4% erasing most of yesterday's loss. Clearly there's an increase in bullish sentiment for uranium.

ura3.PNG Daily chart of URA.us.
 

• Apr 11, 2024
The law of supply and demand determines commodity prices. Currently, the uranium market is undersupplied, just as more nuclear reactors requiring fuel are being brought online. Some reports suggest the market will remain in structural undersupply for more than a decade. It’s one thing for an underlying commodity to rally. Where the rubber meets the road for investors, however, is in equities. In that vein, we engaged Rick Squire from Acorn Capital and John Forwood from Lowell Resources to discuss the risks and opportunities in uranium. They also share a couple of stocks that appear overpriced, as well as four names they would buy today.
 
Interesting, currently there is a divergence between CCJ (going up) and the uranium ETFs (URA, URNM) which are going down.
CCJ is the main holding in these ETFs.

Pairs trade opportunity @ducati916 ?
 
BHP mines some .. that is enough exposure for me thanks

if uranium has a long-term path forward BHP will expand the already existing assets
 

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY​

  • Uranium stocks are set to soar after a surprise hike in extraction taxes in Kazakhstan, the world's largest uranium producing country. The new Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) will increase tax rates to 9% from 6% in 2025. From 2026, a new two-tier MET will be rolled out based on production out and uranium prices. This provides less incentive for local producers, like Kazatomprom to increase production. The Global X Uranium ETF rallied 4.4% on the news to a one-month high. This could draw a strong response for local names like Paladin Energy, Boss Energy and Deep Yellow. It is worth noting that all three names are heavily shorted, with short interest of 4.22%, 6.36% and 5.69% respectively
...from Market Index
 
moXJO said:
Noticed Niger has fallen after a change of government. The French were forced out in December and the US looks likely to follow. Apparently the yellow cake is going to Iran/Russia. Will this create any gaps in the market?
Click to expand...
I saw something recently where Wagner, the private Army in Russia, is very active in these areas, and specifically looking to snare Uranium.
 
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