Uranium resurgence

[Garpal Gumnut]

I was thinking of selling my uranium toys yesterday. Maybe not just yet.

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Overnight movers: Uranium Soars​

The Global X Uranium ETF rallied 3.05% overnight, marking its highly close since April 2022. Uranium spot prices soared to US$62 a pound earlier this week and above the key US$60 level for the first time since 2011. Let's see if we see local names like Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) and Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) kick on.

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The commodity known as yellow cake leapt to $US65.50 ($101.40) a pound this week, setting a fresh high for the post-Fukushima era. The disaster at the Japanese nuclear reactor cruelled the sector in March 2011.

“Cameco is struggling to ramp up their production after curtailing it through COVID-19,” said Guy Keller, a fund manager at Tribeca. “You’ve also seen political upheaval in Niger put a question mark around supply, and Peninsula in the US saying their project is delayed by two years.”

The spot price was further propelled by a bullish report from the World Nuclear Association forecasting global uranium demand would double from 65,650 tonnes this year to 130,000 tonnes by 2040.

This comes as North American and European atomic energy companies are putting further pressure on available ore, looking to sign long-term uranium contracts outside Russia, which is still a big provider of ore and enriched uranium to the US.

Mr Keller said many of the atomic utilities were “self-sanctioning”, meaning they were actively seeking non-Russian supply.

Reactors in Japan and Germany that were set to shut down had reversed course, adding further pressure to the dynamic, and while this “is small compared to increasing Chinese demand, it is a clear bellwether for the wider industry”, said Romano Sala Tenna, fund manager at Katana Asset management.

and the Global Macro guys are getting excited
.
" ....But we remain very bullish on energy, thinking that oil is going to go into the triple digits. So, we're allowing energy stocks in addition to both oil and natural gas on the EMP side, and also the pipeline side. Also, very bullish on uranium, which is finally getting an appreciation after many years in the doldrums as nuclear has something of a renaissance.
Ed D’Agostino:
"Uranium stocks are going parabolic. Some of them are, at least. I mean, I've been watching it over the past few months. It's stunning. Do you think there's more room to run there?
Peter Boockvar:
"I do. I don't want to necessarily discount what you say, and that a lot of the easy money has sort of been had. But I do think that there's more upside to this bull market. Now, when the front page of Barron's has a piece on uranium, I may be a bit more nervous. But I think the supply-demand imbalances are going to last for many, many years, and that there's likely further upside in uranium... "

Interesting table below on world uranium production.
I had no idea that Kazakhstan was the dominant producer by far.
Oz comes third in tonnage, but we have no nuclear reactors aprt from the Lucas heights ty one.
Uranium production has declined from the highs of 2016 , with annual production still below the 2013 year.

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Mick

Uranium stealth bull run continues.

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None of this would have happened had I not entered PEN as my pick in the September Competition.

Just saying.

gg

 

[Sean K]

None of this would have happened had I not entered PEN as my pick in the September Competition.

Just saying.

gg

Obviously no one should be following my dart throws.

 

[farmerge]

Obviously no one should be following my dart throws.

Sean it would be a handy insight if you could give a heads up on perhaps what you may be nominating in october. Then we can all stear clear of them !!!!!

 

[Sean K]

Interesting table below on world uranium production.
I had no idea that Kazakhstan was the dominant producer by far.
Oz comes third in tonnage, but we have no nuclear reactors aprt from the Lucas heights ty one.
Uranium production has declined from the highs of 2016 , with annual production still below the 2013 year.

View attachment 162501
Mick

Australia actually has the most resources, but we just don't mine it all. Uranium makes bombs apparently, so Leftarsehats don't like it.

The best jurisdiction is probably The Athabasca Basin in Canada. MacArthur River is at about 6% U3O8 by memory. That's 6000ppm uranium. To put that in perspective, BMN in Namibia have about 200ppm. My Moodle craps out higher grades of yellow cake than that.

Boratstan only produce the most because they have almost zero risk of ESG in their development approvals, and, Russia...

 

[divs4ever]

Obviously no one should be following my dart throws.

maybe a change of darts would be timely or maybe some rosin on the fingertips

 

[divs4ever]

and, Russia...

well if you don't buy Russian uranium they are liable to use the surplus ( to the power generation needs ) to tip missiles or even sell it to others to use in missile tips ( India , Pakistan , North Korea ... ) but let's sanction Russia to stop them selling uranium to OUR customers ( who are less likely to nuke us )

 

[Captain_Chaza]

well if you don't buy Russian uranium they are liable to use the surplus ( to the power generation needs ) to tip missiles or even sell it to others to use in missile tips ( India , Pakistan , North Korea ... ) but let's sanction Russia to stop them selling uranium to OUR customers ( who are less likely to nuke us )

Are you off your head?
Who will do business with the Russians?
Name One !

 

[divs4ever]

Are you off your head?
Who will do business with the Russians?
Name One !

China , North Korea , probably Vietnam , Cuba will absolutely , and it seems chunks of Africa are becoming more friendly as well , which way will Afghanistan lean , and BTW both Syria and Iran seem to accept help from Russia as well ,

i just hope the world has an abundant supply of neon gas

 

[divs4ever]

and guess who used to buy a big slice of Russian uranium ...USA

 

[Captain_Chaza]

China , North Korea , probably Vietnam , Cuba will absolutely , and it seems chunks of Africa are becoming more friendly as well , which way will Afghanistan lean , and BTW both Syria and Iran seem to accept help from Russia as well ,

i just hope the world has an abundant supply of neon gas

Have they got any left?

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Crikey!
The Chinese have been accumulating Oil & Gas for years
and BTW
Putting it Plainly the Chinese have out-snookered the USA in O & G

The USA is now at its' lowest level of Oil and Gas (SPR = Strategic Petroleum Reserves ) in decades
Together with this
The under 22 year old Men in China are the greatest group of UNEMPLOYED

My Question is
What do you do with an abundance of Young Male Unemployed (22 Yrs)
An Economy that is on its knees and you have
Lots of Oil and Gas?

I'll never forget what my Father told me all those years ago
He said
"Don't Think Chaz, You are No Good at it"

'nuf said
I am not thinking any more

 

[divs4ever]

What do you do with an abundance of Young Male Unemployed (22 Yrs)

i am told they have rather large training schools for drone pilots while Huawei is getting skilled at mobile communications , now maybe they will deliver noodles to your door or the really big drone swarms will be Chinese

 

[farmerge]

Will this open the door for the uranium deposits here. Or have our pollies got their heads too far into the sand dune.

 

[divs4ever]

Will this open the door for the uranium deposits here. Or have our pollies got their heads too far into the sand dune.

that will depend on what tint of Green the Government coalition partners take on ( Albo still needs them to vote his way most of the time )

it might pay to remember BHP has a reasonable amount of uranium by-product from Olympic Dam ( an asset they decided not to expand in the near-term )

also until we get those veteran nuclear submarines , we have very few nuclear power facilities ( one last i heard ) and we still haven't paid for those F-35s , so maybe no excess cash for a nuclear generation plant , for say,Melbourne/Victoria

 

[Sean K]

that will depend on what tint of Green the Government coalition partners take on ( Albo still needs them to vote his way most of the time )

it might pay to remember BHP has a reasonable amount of uranium by-product from Olympic Dam ( an asset they decided not to expand in the near-term )

also until we get those veteran nuclear submarines , we have very few nuclear power facilities ( one last i heard ) and we still haven't paid for those F-35s , so maybe no excess cash for a nuclear generation plant , for say,Melbourne/Victoria

I think uranium mine approval is State based. But, yes, the approvals are arduous and will depend on the government of the day. Will The Voice even allow any mining of any type once it's in control?

I still don't quite understand the hypocrisy of Labor having a ban on even thinking about nuclear energy but are happy to sell uranium and buy nuclear subs. 2+2= fish.

I think Olympic Dam is the largest uranium deposit in the World even as a by-product, but they can't get it out of the ground efficiently enough. Unless McArthur River in Canada has taken over that mantle.

 

[divs4ever]

it will be efficient enough once the price rises due to Russian sanction and Niger export bans ( probably because China will vacuum any surplus production )

uranium demand largely depends on the willingness to build power plants ( which China and Russia are happy to do for a price )

 

[Telamelo]

excerpt below from *Small Caps 20/09

Uranium shortage looms as miners race to supply existing and new reactors

The days of buying US$40 per pound uranium are over — and also probably at US$50 or US$60, Cameco chief financial officer, Grant Isaac, said over the weekend.

“We’re going to need new supplies,” he added, reflecting the market view now held by the operator of the world’s largest uranium mine, Cigar Lake in Canada.

The world is fast coming to the same conclusion.

At present, uranium inventories held by US and European utilities are at their lowest levels since 2008.

The reason: energy security clashing with a focus on clean energy.

 

[finicky]

Uranium investors might like to check out:
Betashares Global Uranium ETF [ASX:URNM].
Its price has been on a streaker so it's more one for a watchlist rather than a current buy and comes as a recent suggestion from Greg Canavan (fat tails advisory) who is big on debunking the green revolution and the path to net zero. He also likes coal, oil and gas companies and an emerging markets etf (because EMs don't hold with that sh*t)

Not Held

 

[Telamelo]

excerpt below from *Small Caps 20/09

Uranium shortage looms as miners race to supply existing and new reactors

The days of buying US$40 per pound uranium are over — and also probably at US$50 or US$60, Cameco chief financial officer, Grant Isaac, said over the weekend.

“We’re going to need new supplies,” he added, reflecting the market view now held by the operator of the world’s largest uranium mine, Cigar Lake in Canada.

The world is fast coming to the same conclusion.

At present, uranium inventories held by US and European utilities are at their lowest levels since 2008.

The reason: energy security clashing with a focus on clean energy.

and again read this morning

" Nuclear industry forecasters are more bullish than they’ve been in years with spot uranium prices hitting a decade high of US$67/lb this week.

On the demand side, there’s a forecasted supply shortfall of approximately 1.5 billion pounds by 2040.

When you take that into consideration, the bullish reports from the World Nuclear Association (WNA) and price reporter Ux Consulting make sense when they say new operations will be needed to fill uranium demand from nuclear power plants will almost double by 2040 ".

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and a place for U.

Repatriating the US nuclear supply chain

Uranium Energy Corp. CEO Amir Adnani on US energy and military security, Microsoft’s pursuit of small nuclear reactors, and Russia’s grip on global uranium supplies

www.mauldineconomics.com