Uranium, a Raging Bull
- Thread starter Yippyio
- Start date
- Joined
- 18 February 2006
- Posts
- 4,200
- Reactions
- 2
travcorp said:
x2
- Joined
- 18 February 2006
- Posts
- 4,200
- Reactions
- 2
Anyone here a Fat Prophets subscriber?
If so have the published a report on MTN yet?
ie what exactly does Gavin Wendt think?
Most analysts believe the uranium story has been overbought, but Fat Prophets analyst Gavin Wendt has a clear favourite in Marathon Resources.
"The company is one of only a handful of Australian uranium hopefuls that, in our view, have a meaningful prospect of achieving mining status," says Wendt.
The stock hit a new intraday high of $1.17 yesterday, about double what it was in February.
Wendt says two things differentiated Marathon from most uranium hopefuls. First, it possessed a large identified resource; second, its resource was located in South Australia, a state sympathetic to uranium mining.
If so have the published a report on MTN yet?
ie what exactly does Gavin Wendt think?
Most analysts believe the uranium story has been overbought, but Fat Prophets analyst Gavin Wendt has a clear favourite in Marathon Resources.
"The company is one of only a handful of Australian uranium hopefuls that, in our view, have a meaningful prospect of achieving mining status," says Wendt.
The stock hit a new intraday high of $1.17 yesterday, about double what it was in February.
Wendt says two things differentiated Marathon from most uranium hopefuls. First, it possessed a large identified resource; second, its resource was located in South Australia, a state sympathetic to uranium mining.
- Joined
- 18 February 2006
- Posts
- 4,200
- Reactions
- 2
Hey Champ, thanks for that,
I do have some specific questions
Did they have a target price in mind?
A Catalyst? ie drilling results
Do they agree with my EV per lb metrics?
Do they think it is a very likely takeover target given it has the lowest EV per lb metrics by far?
It would be nice if a fat prophets member could answer as many of these as possible it would be really appreciated.
I do have some specific questions
Did they have a target price in mind?
A Catalyst? ie drilling results
Do they agree with my EV per lb metrics?
Do they think it is a very likely takeover target given it has the lowest EV per lb metrics by far?
It would be nice if a fat prophets member could answer as many of these as possible it would be really appreciated.
- Joined
- 24 March 2006
- Posts
- 570
- Reactions
- 0
What about EME? Fall down from 2.70 to 1.935. Lot correction in there.
Is it good time to buy this baby?
Is it good time to buy this baby?
- Joined
- 24 March 2006
- Posts
- 570
- Reactions
- 0
Good news for uranium,
0306 GMT [Dow Jones] Australian PM Howard gives strongest sign yet Australia's
uranium may be sold to India, even though country hasn't signed nuclear
nonproliferation treaty. Calling for end to Labor states' 'no new mines' uranium
policy, Howard tells ABC Radio in Perth: "We have a historic opportunity,
because of the emergence of China - and perhaps also India can come into this -
to sell our resources, including uranium, to these rapidly developing countries
that will form, or contribute, the bulk of the world's middle classes by 2010".
Howard has previously there's no current plan to alter his government's uranium
policy that restricts sales to NPT signatories. (BBA)
Hope this will make the bull run wild again
0306 GMT [Dow Jones] Australian PM Howard gives strongest sign yet Australia's
uranium may be sold to India, even though country hasn't signed nuclear
nonproliferation treaty. Calling for end to Labor states' 'no new mines' uranium
policy, Howard tells ABC Radio in Perth: "We have a historic opportunity,
because of the emergence of China - and perhaps also India can come into this -
to sell our resources, including uranium, to these rapidly developing countries
that will form, or contribute, the bulk of the world's middle classes by 2010".
Howard has previously there's no current plan to alter his government's uranium
policy that restricts sales to NPT signatories. (BBA)
Hope this will make the bull run wild again
- Joined
- 19 March 2006
- Posts
- 598
- Reactions
- 2
Hi. I've been a member of fat prophets for about 3 months now, their initial buy recommendation was at .72 and their 2nd at 1.07....most of the reasons why they like it have been discussed, particularly their low market cap vs resources and the fact they're in SA.
I wrote to Gavin querying the debate that mining may never occur because of conservation concerns....his reply was that he wasn't aware of any concerns and would investigate....after that their 2nd report came out with the buy up to $1.07.
I have written to MTN with this query and have yet to hear back but will follow it up with a phone call next week if I haven't heard back.
On another subject fat prophets also made a buy rec on EDN which I have bought into and was thinking of starting a thread on...its a small diamond company that is about to produce it's first diamonds from their mining operation in Brazill....I sold a 1/3d of my stock yesterday but will re enter @.46-.48
I'm quite optimistic about this one but a little worried my portfolio is looking like a magpai's lair
I wrote to Gavin querying the debate that mining may never occur because of conservation concerns....his reply was that he wasn't aware of any concerns and would investigate....after that their 2nd report came out with the buy up to $1.07.
I have written to MTN with this query and have yet to hear back but will follow it up with a phone call next week if I haven't heard back.
On another subject fat prophets also made a buy rec on EDN which I have bought into and was thinking of starting a thread on...its a small diamond company that is about to produce it's first diamonds from their mining operation in Brazill....I sold a 1/3d of my stock yesterday but will re enter @.46-.48
I'm quite optimistic about this one but a little worried my portfolio is looking like a magpai's lair
- Joined
- 18 February 2006
- Posts
- 4,200
- Reactions
- 2
kgee said:
So thats why there was alot of volume sitting @ $1.07 waiting to buy,
Makes sense now, I was thinking why $1.07, why not $1.10 or $1.15 ie round numbers,
Is Gavin waiting for drilling results?
ie did the report say anything about upcoming drillling etc?
This is good to know, I definately think once their results are out and new JORC we will see $2+
In any event I have always stated that this is a very attractive takeover target @ these prices and I think the Hawks like Mega, Laramide and UEX Corp are watching, waiting to swoop
- Joined
- 18 February 2006
- Posts
- 4,200
- Reactions
- 2
Uranium bulls take a look at my post on BKY,
Be interested to know what you guys think of my Take Over theory
Be interested to know what you guys think of my Take Over theory
- Joined
- 18 February 2006
- Posts
- 4,200
- Reactions
- 2
As the Honeymoon night draws near, can't help but feel a bit nervous and anxious.
Heres to a new era!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/natio...oon-may-be-over/2006/04/07/1143916721691.html
Heres to a new era!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/natio...oon-may-be-over/2006/04/07/1143916721691.html
Yes, and the list goes on. Any mine must be supported with something e.g. gold mining. History shows all good things come to an end. Need to do homework as to what are good bad ugly mines. Not many uranium mines in production. My thoughts are to keep a keen eye - don't want to be left holding candle. Only an opinion - need to do own research.
- Joined
- 18 February 2006
- Posts
- 4,200
- Reactions
- 2
Good to know that my views are shared by others, but they are seriously overlooking BKY!!!!!
Uranium hopefuls
CRITERION
Tim Boreham
April 11, 2006
THE current valuations being ascribed to even the most rag-tag uranium hopefuls might look reasonable in a decade's time. But it's just as likely that we've solved the Middle East's woes and sent a man to Mars by then as well.
The truth is: even if another ripper uranium resource is proved up, there's bugger-all prospect of an Australian mine being built (and approvals granted) in that period.
While the world will clamour for more uranium, shorter-term demand is likely to be satisfied by known new mines and existing projects, such as BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam.
Even Rio Tinto's Leigh Clifford - who's now known for pontificating on commodity prices - warns the current $US40 a pound uranium price - which has almost doubled in the past year - cannot be sustained.
He notes the planned new nuclear power plants - such as the 40 slated by the Chinese - could take a decade to fire up.
Clifford's salient warning is supported by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, which forecasts a modest 1 per cent per annum uptick in uranium demand over the next five years.
ABARE forecasts that the value of Australia's uranium exports will decline to $521 million by 2010-11, compared with $712 million in 2005-06.
"Despite recent significant increases in expenditure on uranium exploration, uranium production over the outlook period is expected to be largely dictated by production from existing operations," ABARE says.
While there's a big global supply/demand gap, the void is filled by recycling material from decommissioned bombs and reprocessing spent fuel.
There's also new production this year: Paladin Resources' Langer Heinrich project in Namibia (1180 tonnes per year) and the Zarechnoye mine in Kazakhstan (590 tonnes).
Next year, it's Southern Cross Resources' Dominion project in South Africa (1800 tonnes), while Cameco (the world's biggest producer) is expanding output at its existing Cigar Lake operation in Canada.
As with all manias, investors are spoiled for choice in terms of options to do their dough. At least 40 listed miners claim a uranium exposure. Dozens have packaged up their uranium tenements (or, strictly speaking, patches of dirt where uranium might reside) and flogged them off.
Oxiana, for instance, spun off Toro Resources (TOE) at 20c on March 24. Toro only yesterday announced the start of its drilling program, but that didn't stop the stock leaping to a high of $1.60 in late March. TOE stock yesterday closed 5.5c better at $1.22.
The uranium mania has been fuelled by political developments which look promising, but might be red herrings more than anything.
First, Labor's likely rethink on its "three mines" stance could remove a 20-year impediment to the sector's development. Labor governs in the relevant states of South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland, but expect them to handpass the hot potato into the calloused hands of their federal comrades.
Criterion suspects Labor's policy will change, given Australia has $32 billion of current uranium reserves. Alternatively, Labor is likely to be voted out of office in at least one of these states over the next decade, with Queensland looking the most vulnerable.
In the shorter term, it's more important for miners to prove up a resource for the politicians and greenies to argue over.
Uranium enthusiasts have also been heartened by the feds' agreement with China, to allow the Chinese to buy yellowcake and explore for the stuff here.
Hmm, very promising. But once again, the existing mines will fill the short-term demand. China did sign an exploration deal with Uranium Exploration (UNX), but there's more than a sneaking suspicion it's more interested in Uranex's Tanzanian ground.
Criterion ascribes a SELL recommendation to a whole sector: uranium explorers with no proven resources and little hope of achieving production.
It's a bit tough to tar all the players with the "overvalued" brush, but the valuations look crazy. At the very least, there's no way of knowing whether they're ridiculous or not.
Examples are Toro, UNX (38.5c), Nova Energy (NEL, $1.74), Encounter Resources (ENR, 60.5C) and Globe Uranium (GBE, 55c).
Paladin (PDN) should make good money from Langer Heinrich and its Malawi project will probably get off the ground.
But Paladin's market cap stands at $2.1 billion: more than the value ascribed to the Seven Network, Unitab, Dyno Nobel or the soon-to-be-producing Bendigo Mining.
A handful are worthy of a SPECULATIVE BUY. Summit Resources (SMM) has a proven ore body at its Mt Isa project: 22,100 tonnes of "measured and indicated resources". It's the local deposit most likely to be developed.
Marathon Resources (MTN, $1.07) has 33,000 tonnes of inferred resources at its Mt Gee tenement in the Flinders Ranges.
"Marathon Resources appears to be in the right place at the right time," says stock-picker Fat Prophets.
Another investor says: "Marathon has run ahead of itself. Needs to do more work."
Compass Resources (CMR, $2.35) also earns Brownie points for looking in the right place: the Rum Jungle field in the Northern Territory, which supplied Cold War uranium to the British and Americans before being forgotten for four decades.
Monaro Resources (MRO $1.06) is taking a different tack and looking to the Kyrgyz Republic, Russia's traditional source of uranium.
Monaro is still setting up, but boasts the biggest acreage in the consonant-rich republic. As well as being deficient in vowels, Kyrgyz also lacks the usual pesky environmental standards and red tape.
Alternatively, investors could forget about the blue sky and stick with ERA, the only dedicated uranium producer.
The trouble is, ERA's output is subject to long-term contracts well below current spot prices. Over time, these contracts will be rewritten at higher prices, so uranium's old-timer will be able to join the party.
ERA shares look fully valued at $15 but we rate them a LONG-TERM BUY.
Criterion subscribes to uranium watcher (and Monaro chairman) Warwick Grigor's view that investors should hold back for more drilling results.
His rule of thumb is that anyone with a 1000-tonne plus resource is worth a look at.
Grigor believes uranium is not just a cyclical play, but will benefit from sustained long-term energy demand.
The world certainly can't rely on wind farms if those orange-bellied parrots keep flying in the way.
Grigor adds: "I think the sector needs to play it cool for a little while." Indeed.
borehamt@theaustralian.com.au
The Australian accepts no responsibility for stock recommendations. Readers should contact a licensed financial adviser. The author does not hold shares in the above-mentioned companies.
Uranium hopefuls
CRITERION
Tim Boreham
April 11, 2006
THE current valuations being ascribed to even the most rag-tag uranium hopefuls might look reasonable in a decade's time. But it's just as likely that we've solved the Middle East's woes and sent a man to Mars by then as well.
The truth is: even if another ripper uranium resource is proved up, there's bugger-all prospect of an Australian mine being built (and approvals granted) in that period.
While the world will clamour for more uranium, shorter-term demand is likely to be satisfied by known new mines and existing projects, such as BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam.
Even Rio Tinto's Leigh Clifford - who's now known for pontificating on commodity prices - warns the current $US40 a pound uranium price - which has almost doubled in the past year - cannot be sustained.
He notes the planned new nuclear power plants - such as the 40 slated by the Chinese - could take a decade to fire up.
Clifford's salient warning is supported by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, which forecasts a modest 1 per cent per annum uptick in uranium demand over the next five years.
ABARE forecasts that the value of Australia's uranium exports will decline to $521 million by 2010-11, compared with $712 million in 2005-06.
"Despite recent significant increases in expenditure on uranium exploration, uranium production over the outlook period is expected to be largely dictated by production from existing operations," ABARE says.
While there's a big global supply/demand gap, the void is filled by recycling material from decommissioned bombs and reprocessing spent fuel.
There's also new production this year: Paladin Resources' Langer Heinrich project in Namibia (1180 tonnes per year) and the Zarechnoye mine in Kazakhstan (590 tonnes).
Next year, it's Southern Cross Resources' Dominion project in South Africa (1800 tonnes), while Cameco (the world's biggest producer) is expanding output at its existing Cigar Lake operation in Canada.
As with all manias, investors are spoiled for choice in terms of options to do their dough. At least 40 listed miners claim a uranium exposure. Dozens have packaged up their uranium tenements (or, strictly speaking, patches of dirt where uranium might reside) and flogged them off.
Oxiana, for instance, spun off Toro Resources (TOE) at 20c on March 24. Toro only yesterday announced the start of its drilling program, but that didn't stop the stock leaping to a high of $1.60 in late March. TOE stock yesterday closed 5.5c better at $1.22.
The uranium mania has been fuelled by political developments which look promising, but might be red herrings more than anything.
First, Labor's likely rethink on its "three mines" stance could remove a 20-year impediment to the sector's development. Labor governs in the relevant states of South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland, but expect them to handpass the hot potato into the calloused hands of their federal comrades.
Criterion suspects Labor's policy will change, given Australia has $32 billion of current uranium reserves. Alternatively, Labor is likely to be voted out of office in at least one of these states over the next decade, with Queensland looking the most vulnerable.
In the shorter term, it's more important for miners to prove up a resource for the politicians and greenies to argue over.
Uranium enthusiasts have also been heartened by the feds' agreement with China, to allow the Chinese to buy yellowcake and explore for the stuff here.
Hmm, very promising. But once again, the existing mines will fill the short-term demand. China did sign an exploration deal with Uranium Exploration (UNX), but there's more than a sneaking suspicion it's more interested in Uranex's Tanzanian ground.
Criterion ascribes a SELL recommendation to a whole sector: uranium explorers with no proven resources and little hope of achieving production.
It's a bit tough to tar all the players with the "overvalued" brush, but the valuations look crazy. At the very least, there's no way of knowing whether they're ridiculous or not.
Examples are Toro, UNX (38.5c), Nova Energy (NEL, $1.74), Encounter Resources (ENR, 60.5C) and Globe Uranium (GBE, 55c).
Paladin (PDN) should make good money from Langer Heinrich and its Malawi project will probably get off the ground.
But Paladin's market cap stands at $2.1 billion: more than the value ascribed to the Seven Network, Unitab, Dyno Nobel or the soon-to-be-producing Bendigo Mining.
A handful are worthy of a SPECULATIVE BUY. Summit Resources (SMM) has a proven ore body at its Mt Isa project: 22,100 tonnes of "measured and indicated resources". It's the local deposit most likely to be developed.
Marathon Resources (MTN, $1.07) has 33,000 tonnes of inferred resources at its Mt Gee tenement in the Flinders Ranges.
"Marathon Resources appears to be in the right place at the right time," says stock-picker Fat Prophets.
Another investor says: "Marathon has run ahead of itself. Needs to do more work."
Compass Resources (CMR, $2.35) also earns Brownie points for looking in the right place: the Rum Jungle field in the Northern Territory, which supplied Cold War uranium to the British and Americans before being forgotten for four decades.
Monaro Resources (MRO $1.06) is taking a different tack and looking to the Kyrgyz Republic, Russia's traditional source of uranium.
Monaro is still setting up, but boasts the biggest acreage in the consonant-rich republic. As well as being deficient in vowels, Kyrgyz also lacks the usual pesky environmental standards and red tape.
Alternatively, investors could forget about the blue sky and stick with ERA, the only dedicated uranium producer.
The trouble is, ERA's output is subject to long-term contracts well below current spot prices. Over time, these contracts will be rewritten at higher prices, so uranium's old-timer will be able to join the party.
ERA shares look fully valued at $15 but we rate them a LONG-TERM BUY.
Criterion subscribes to uranium watcher (and Monaro chairman) Warwick Grigor's view that investors should hold back for more drilling results.
His rule of thumb is that anyone with a 1000-tonne plus resource is worth a look at.
Grigor believes uranium is not just a cyclical play, but will benefit from sustained long-term energy demand.
The world certainly can't rely on wind farms if those orange-bellied parrots keep flying in the way.
Grigor adds: "I think the sector needs to play it cool for a little while." Indeed.
borehamt@theaustralian.com.au
The Australian accepts no responsibility for stock recommendations. Readers should contact a licensed financial adviser. The author does not hold shares in the above-mentioned companies.
- Joined
- 2 February 2006
- Posts
- 14,009
- Reactions
- 2,891
- Joined
- 2 February 2006
- Posts
- 14,009
- Reactions
- 2,891
Fab said:
Waste Storage is one of the most talked about subjects in Australia, mostly behind the scenes. Political parties try to hide this from the Australian people. Several hundred sites store waste materials, many of these in Towns and Cities. Plans are to store at Olympic Dam and to make South Australia the main dumping ground. Some storage is known to be illegal and much is kept secret.
Worldwide, the following companies are involved in waste storage: Silex, Pangea, Xcel Energy, Amec, Nucem GmbH, British Nuclear Fuels, Entergy Gp, Southern Electric, Florida Power and Light, Ansaido Nucleare, Areva, Belgoprocess, Cogemalogistics ...
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
- Joined
- 20 October 2005
- Posts
- 2,397
- Reactions
- 2
noirua said:
What about TPI?
thx
MS
- Joined
- 18 February 2006
- Posts
- 4,200
- Reactions
- 2
BKY has seen good consolidation, I still think that given its resource in Spain, its JV with Areva and its backing by London + Swiss Insto's it will be the next listed Uranium Company into production,
Only other companies that stand a chance of getting into production are
EME (has finance and JV support from Lara a huge Canadian U company, but needs bigger deposit, at least 3-4x current)
EXT in Nambia but needs a resource first!
OMC in South Africa (but needs larger size deposit with better grades, not to mention financial backing from a big insto as well as technical JV support from a major)
Remember think long term, ie PDN went from $10m to $2b in 4 years,
Who will be next?
Only other companies that stand a chance of getting into production are
EME (has finance and JV support from Lara a huge Canadian U company, but needs bigger deposit, at least 3-4x current)
EXT in Nambia but needs a resource first!
OMC in South Africa (but needs larger size deposit with better grades, not to mention financial backing from a big insto as well as technical JV support from a major)
Remember think long term, ie PDN went from $10m to $2b in 4 years,
Who will be next?
