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Uranium, a Raging Bull

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Today was a pull back for Uranium Companies, lets see how the ones on our list went

Producers

BHP Up
PDN Down
ERA Up (Substanital ie more than 5% given mkt cap)
RIO Up


JORC/Deposits (JORC = Compliance requirement, set by Geological and Mining Standards)

AGS Down 6%
ARU Flat
BKY Up 10%
DYL Down 10%
EME Down 10%
MTN Up 8%
NEL Up 14%
OMC Down 6%
PNN Down 15%
RPT Down 7%
RRS Up 2%
SMM Down 14%
SRZ Down 12%
UNX Down 7.5%
VUL Down 15.4%

If I have missed any please add


Pure Explorers
About 50,

Best are

AEX
AUL
BMN
ENR
EXT
GBE
GIR
KOR
KAL
TOE
UXA

If any more should be on his list please say so
 
I think that its worth looking at the stocks which went up even more today on such a harsh day and asking why?


Could it be luck that of the three stocks that went up in the Deposits category each has quite a large deposit and had a low EV?

BKY 13k t EV per lb Uranium = $2.50
(Shares = 100m fully diluted @ 75c = Mkt Cap $75m, with 30m lbs Uranium)

MTN 33k t = 82c
(Shares = 50m fully diluted @ 1.16c = $58m mkt Cap, with 70m lbs Uranium)

NEL 9k t = $5.20
(Shares = 57m fully diluted @ 1.83c = $104m mkt Cap, with 20m lbs Uranium)


EME only has 1.5k t its EV is quite high well over $10, same with AGS its EV per lb Uranium is also quite high, well over $5



So you don't have to be a brain surgeon to see that both BKY and MTN are very undervalued based on a comparative EV rating, MTN is heavily undervalued @ 82c per lb Uranium,

Understand that EV per resource is what is used when Take overs are considered, ie how much would it costs us to purchase 1 bbl of oil resource, 1 oz of gold resource or in this case, 1 lb of Uranium.

Thus the lower the EV per reource, the more attractive it is for takeovers and the more underalued it is on a peer mkt comparison,


I generally think $2.50 is a good ev, although current run suggest $5 is now the new mkt EV, but 80c per lb is ridiculously cheap!


I really want some good feedback on what I have posted, so please take the time to give me your thoughts,

Hope this helps
 
Very interesting reading young_trader.

Do you or anyone else know how i can get access to up to date information on the daily Uranium price?
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
I think that its worth looking at the stocks which went up even more today on such a harsh day and asking why?


Could it be luck that of the three stocks that went up in the Deposits category each has quite a large deposit and had a low EV?

BKY 13k t EV per lb Uranium = $2.50
(Shares = 100m fully diluted @ 75c = Mkt Cap $75m, with 30m lbs Uranium)

MTN 33k t = 82c
(Shares = 50m fully diluted @ 1.16c = $58m mkt Cap, with 70m lbs Uranium)

NEL 9k t = $5.20
(Shares = 57m fully diluted @ 1.83c = $104m mkt Cap, with 20m lbs Uranium)


EME only has 1.5k t its EV is quite high well over $10, same with AGS its EV per lb Uranium is also quite high, well over $5



So you don't have to be a brain surgeon to see that both BKY and MTN are very undervalued based on a comparative EV rating, MTN is heavily undervalued @ 82c per lb Uranium,

Understand that EV per resource is what is used when Take overs are considered, ie how much would it costs us to purchase 1 bbl of oil resource, 1 oz of gold resource or in this case, 1 lb of Uranium.

Thus the lower the EV per reource, the more attractive it is for takeovers and the more underalued it is on a peer mkt comparison,


I generally think $2.50 is a good ev, although current run suggest $5 is now the new mkt EV, but 80c per lb is ridiculously cheap!


I really want some good feedback on what I have posted, so please take the time to give me your thoughts,

Hope this helps
Click to expand...

MTN 33k t = 82c
(Shares = 50m fully diluted @ 1.16c = $58m mkt Cap, with 70m lbs Uranium)

Hi how did u get 33k, and 70m lbs uranium?

thx

MS
 
33k t = 33,000 tonnes Uranium, to convert to pounds multiply by 1000 to get kilos, then 2.2 to get pounds,

ie 33,000 t Uranium x 2,200 = 72m lbs Uranium, so say 70m lbs Uranium, if you want to know where I got their JORC resource from, it was released as an announcement by them ages ago, then re-confirmed recenlty, if can wait till tomorrow MTN will be presenting to the Pay Dirt Uranium Conference, they will no doubt re-iterate that they have 25kt Uranium using a 500ppm cut-off and 33k t Uranium using a 300ppm cut off,




Also BillyGoatGruff re AEX and their JORC deposit can u find the info and add it to the post,
 
1m lbs Uranium is worth $40million US + currently and its lure is that there are heaps of known gold deposits around the world that are in production, how many Uranium deposits are there around the world and in production?

If a company can manage to get its Uranium deposit into production then over 4 years its share price can go from 2c to $5 ie PDN an increase of 25,000%
 
howardlian said:
MTN 33k t = 82c

how do you get 82c from 33k t?
Click to expand...


Look the maths is simple enough its called EV (Enterprise Value)

Just divide a company's mkt cap by the lbs of Uranium (or barrels of oil or ounces of gold for that matter) , you then get a number

33,000 t Uranium x 2,200 = 72m lbs Uranium, so say 70m lbs Uranium
(Shares = 50m fully diluted @ 1.16c = $58m mkt Cap, with 70m lbs Uranium)


Whats $58m / 70m = 80cents


ie if you bought the whole company at todays share price (Take Over) you would get access to its 70m lbs Uranium and at the price you would pay it would only be costing you 80cents a lb,


This applies to all resource companies including Oil, Gas, Copper, Gold, Silver, Zinc and so on and so forth
 
1m lbs Uranium is worth $40million US +
MTN have 70m lbs Uranium and 50m shares

$40million US multiply 70m lbs = US$2800m
US$2800m divide 50m shares = US$56 per share ????
 
howardlian said:
1m lbs Uranium is worth $40million US +
MTN have 70m lbs Uranium and 50m shares

$40million US multiply 70m lbs = US$2800m
US$2800m divide 50m shares = US$56 per share ????
Click to expand...

Ive looked at it too and it doesnt make sense.
 
howardlian said:
1m lbs Uranium is worth $40million US +
MTN have 70m lbs Uranium and 50m shares

$40million US multiply 70m lbs = US$2800m
US$2800m divide 50m shares = US$56 per share ????
Click to expand...



Ok I can see you really don't understand what EV is,

For example if Santos has 500million barrels of oil, do you simply multiply that by spot oil price to get its asset value?

No that is a gross value, as there is a cost of extraction, in Oil for example the Mkt EV per barrel of oil is around $30 AUD, ie in general Oil companies 2p reserves are worth $30 a barrel,

Now for Gold Producers the Mkt Avg EV is around $100 AUD per ounce reserve, for explorers it is more like $25 - $50 AUD,

The general rule of thumb is to look at companies which are trading on a lower EV per resource as they are potential take over targets,

For some reason, Uranium Mkt EV's are around $2.65 - $5 for explorers with deposits and around $10 - $15 for producers per lb,


So you only multiply lbs Uranium by EV ie low case $2.65 to get what the mkt cap should be
 
YT - whats your view on SRK? have you got some analysis you can provide on this?
 
Re: YT JORC AEX

As announced in July 2005, Acclaim entered into an unconditional agreement to acquire the Denny Dalton Uranium / Gold Project in South Africa. During the quarter Acclaim completed the acquisition by payment of the final $3.75m.
• The project area is approximately 4,000 hectares with significant uranium and gold drilling and mining previously undertaken.
• Independent Legal and Geological Reviews completed.
• Inferred JORC resource of 31.5m tonnes of U3O8 at 0.35 kg/t for 11,025 tonnes with associated gold mineralisation.
• Potential to increase orebody dimensions and extend existing resource with down dip investigation and additional farm areas currently under application.
 
thanks,

Uranium Mkt EV's are around $2.65 - $5 for explorers with deposits and around $10 - $15 for producers per lb, where to find this information.
 
Re Uranium Conference:

It would appear that hardly any of todays presenters are releasing presentation material, only one I saw was MDX,






howardlian said:
thanks,

Uranium Mkt EV's are around $2.65 - $5 for explorers with deposits and around $10 - $15 for producers per lb, where to find this information.
Click to expand...


Do some research, look through this thread and other Uranium Company threads, I know I have alread posted up this info and can't be bothered doing it again, so do some research!
 

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