Uranium, a Raging Bull

[Sean K]

Labor's uranium policy 'must change'
December 14, 2006

LABOR'S uranium policy must change, Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd said today.

Mr Rudd said the ALP's no new uranium mines policy needed modernising.

"The existing three mines policy or no new mines policy needs to be modernised, needs to be changed," Mr Rudd said in Adelaide today.



Start buying quality Australian explorers.

 

[greggy]

Labor's uranium policy 'must change'
December 14, 2006

LABOR'S uranium policy must change, Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd said today.

Mr Rudd said the ALP's no new uranium mines policy needed modernising.

"The existing three mines policy or no new mines policy needs to be modernised, needs to be changed," Mr Rudd said in Adelaide today.



Start buying quality Australian explorers.

Mr Rudd has more of a get up and go attitude on uranium mining than its former leader. This can only be a positive for the industry.

 

[Sean K]

Mr Rudd has more of a get up and go attitude on uranium mining than its former leader. This can only be a positive for the industry.

What Australian U companies you holding greggy?

I've got:

SMM
AGS
MTN
BHP

Have previously owned but sold on big gains:

ARU
DYL
RPT

I haven't looked at RIO or ERA just cause I thought they were hexy. I think ERA has doubled since then.....

Anyone else have a resource of 20 m lbs or more?

 

[mmmmining]

What Australian U companies you holding greggy?

I've got:

SMM
AGS
MTN
BHP

Have previously owned but sold on big gains:

ARU
DYL
RPT

I haven't looked at RIO or ERA just cause I thought they were hexy. I think ERA has doubled since then.....

Anyone else have a resource of 20 m lbs or more?

I use to have no discrimination for any good Aussie U stocks, now I have a preference for companies with majority of the assets outside WA, such as CMR, and PNN. So far none of them have let me down yet, and I will hold them for a very long time.

I have to mention the fact that BHP is a giant in term of U resources. We are talking about over 4000 million lbs resources. Just image, the shutdown every uranium mine in the whole world, and forget about Cigar Lake mess, and if BHP can keep up with the demand, it can supply the whole world for 20 years.

Soon or later someone will do something about it, if it is not BHP itself.

 

[ekman]

Considering that BHP holds the majority of world's uranium, does this mean that once it starts digging it out the uranium prices will fall in a heap & crash

 

[mmmmining]

Considering that BHP holds the majority of world's uranium, does this mean that once it starts digging it out the uranium prices will fall in a heap & crash

Very likely, but not within 10 years I think.

The Olympic Dam is happening. Need time, money, and most importantly, the water to get more uranium production. But the asset is too delicious, very strategic. The One in the world.

 

[Sean K]

Considering that BHP holds the majority of world's uranium, does this mean that once it starts digging it out the uranium prices will fall in a heap & crash

I think the review of OD to be completed some time in early Jan will tell all. They have had 20 drill rigs on site (yes twenty - some companies struggle to get one, on loan) to complete a revisied resource estimate. It's thought that this could be quite significant. Once they have that out they will tell us if, how and when they will be digging the extra stuff up. Ultimately, when Labor do change their policy and the States ratify it, there will be quite a few more mines coming on at about the same time. This will effect the price I'd say. How much depends on demand of course, and there looks to be quite a shortfall going forward. How much? I haven't got a pretty graph, but from what I've seen in the past it looks BIG.

 

[greggy]

What Australian U companies you holding greggy?

I've got:

SMM
AGS
MTN
BHP

Have previously owned but sold on big gains:

ARU
DYL
RPT

I haven't looked at RIO or ERA just cause I thought they were hexy. I think ERA has doubled since then.....

Anyone else have a resource of 20 m lbs or more?

Hi Kennas,

You've got a nice portfolio there.
My uranium stocks include VMS, MRU, STB (they have a JV with Uranex for uranium at Thatchers Sooak in WA) and THR. I've recently sold HCY who are in the process of obtaining some land prospective for uranium in WA and am still watching it carefully. I prefer to stick to the smaller ones. I've done a lot of trading recently (including ITT, RPT and WMT) and have also added MZM (non- uranium, but with Terry Grammeer and Dennis O'Meara on board as directors) to my list of shares.
DYOR

 

[lancer]

Uranium jumps to $72 per pound! This is from trade tech that was just published:
The quest of buyers to
secure uranium at fixed
prices continues to fuel the
price rise, with any spot
material offered up by sellers
creating a “feeding frenzy.”
As a result, the spot price for
uranium jumped $7.00 this
week to $72.00 per pound
U3O8””the single largest
increase reported since
NUEXCO began publishing
prices in 1968 (see chart).

If the $4 jump from cameco's mines made most Junior U's jump 15% I cant wait to see how this will impact them on monday

 

[Sean K]

BHP tips growing uranium demand

Tan Hwee Ann and Angela Macdonald-smith
December 16, 2006

BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company, said demand for uranium would grow as many countries have "massive" expansion plans for nuclear power generation.

The company is in negotiations with potential customers for uranium it could sell, dependent on the expansion of the Olympic Dam mine in Australia, BHP said in a presentation on its website. Prices for uranium sold from the potential expansion may be settled at a higher price than BHP's long-term price assumption, UBS said in a report, citing the company.

BHP's Olympic Dam mine in South Australia contains about 34 per cent of the world's known uranium reserves. The company is carrying out initial feasibility studies into an expansion, which would more than triple production by 2014.

"Demand is poised to grow with many countries embarking on massive nuclear expansion plans," BHP said in the presentation. "Security of supply concerns have increased contracting activity in (the) spot and long-term market."

Spot uranium prices, which have more than tripled in the past two years, were at $US65 a pound on December 13, according to Metal Bulletin.

Olympic Dam's uranium production is currently fully sold forward to 2010 at less than $20 a pound, possibly at about $18 a pound, UBS said.

Uranium demand is forecast to surge by 135 per cent between 2005 and 2030, BHP said, citing forecasts from the World Nuclear Association, with Asian consumption quadrupling.

 

[barney]

BHP tips growing uranium demand

Tan Hwee Ann and Angela Macdonald-smith
December 16, 2006

BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining company, said demand for uranium would grow as many countries have "massive" expansion plans for nuclear power generation.

The company is in negotiations with potential customers for uranium it could sell, dependent on the expansion of the Olympic Dam mine in Australia, BHP said in a presentation on its website. Prices for uranium sold from the potential expansion may be settled at a higher price than BHP's long-term price assumption, UBS said in a report, citing the company.

BHP's Olympic Dam mine in South Australia contains about 34 per cent of the world's known uranium reserves. The company is carrying out initial feasibility studies into an expansion, which would more than triple production by 2014.

"Demand is poised to grow with many countries embarking on massive nuclear expansion plans," BHP said in the presentation. "Security of supply concerns have increased contracting activity in (the) spot and long-term market."

Spot uranium prices, which have more than tripled in the past two years, were at $US65 a pound on December 13, according to Metal Bulletin.

Olympic Dam's uranium production is currently fully sold forward to 2010 at less than $20 a pound, possibly at about $18 a pound, UBS said.

Uranium demand is forecast to surge by 135 per cent between 2005 and 2030, BHP said, citing forecasts from the World Nuclear Association, with Asian consumption quadrupling.

Howdy Kennas, 34% ...that is impressive ........... BHP must be feeling pretty dirty about the price they are getting for their U considering what it could be at todays prices (not to mention next years prices)

A question for those better informed than myself .......... Considering the price of U atm, and its possible exponential rise into the future, which companies will be best served by the price rise?? eg. PDN who are just about to produce, or smaller Co's who are still building up JORC reserves for the future, and who's SP's will appreciate on speculation rather than earnings??? Any comments appreciated, Cheers, Barney.

 

[mmmmining]

Uranium jumps to $72 per pound! This is from trade tech that was just published:
The quest of buyers to
secure uranium at fixed
prices continues to fuel the
price rise, with any spot
material offered up by sellers
creating a “feeding frenzy.”
As a result, the spot price for
uranium jumped $7.00 this
week to $72.00 per pound
U3O8””the single largest
increase reported since
NUEXCO began publishing
prices in 1968 (see chart).

If the $4 jump from cameco's mines made most Junior U's jump 15% I cant wait to see how this will impact them on monday

Good one.

 

[sydneysider]

Hi Kennas,

You've got a nice portfolio there.
My uranium stocks include VMS, MRU, STB (they have a JV with Uranex for uranium at Thatchers Sooak in WA) and THR. I've recently sold HCY who are in the process of obtaining some land prospective for uranium in WA and am still watching it carefully. I prefer to stick to the smaller ones. I've done a lot of trading recently (including ITT, RPT and WMT) and have also added MZM (non- uranium, but with Terry Grammeer and Dennis O'Meara on board as directors) to my list of shares.
DYOR

Another speccy that could have a very big run include Aura Energy AEE. Market cap is $6.5 million (most of which is cash). They have been drilling at Wondining in WA for about three weeks on an extremely large calcrete uranium target that is about 5,000m x 4000m in size. WMC orginally drilled a small number of holes here about thirty years ago and found uranium across the whole area. It is low grade (half to three quarters of a pound per ton) and about three feet thick that sits on surface with cover ranging from a few inches to about three feet. AEE's first set of holes confirms that U mineralization is at both ends of this area and is very widespread. Target tonnage is then 5,000m x 4.000m x 1m (at 2.5 t per cubic meter) = 50,000,000 tonnes. IF U grades hold up and about one third /half the area contains economic grades the stock will go ballistic. They are also drilling some deeper holes to see if there are additional layers of U mineralization. As U prices rise these previously marginal deposits will become very attractive. AEE "ballparks" costs at around US$20 tonne and assuming around half pound u per tonne (or more from richer zones) at $70-100 lb for U the economics gets extremely attractive for very low cost very shallow (one meter) strip mining with dump trucks and dozers.

 

[Sean K]

Another speccy that could have a very big run include Aura Energy AEE. Market cap is $6.5 million (most of which is cash). They have been drilling at Wondining in WA for about three weeks on an extremely large calcrete uranium target that is about 5,000m x 4000m in size. WMC orginally drilled a small number of holes here about thirty years ago and found uranium across the whole area. It is low grade (half to three quarters of a pound per ton) and about three feet thick that sits on surface with cover ranging from a few inches to about three feet. AEE's first set of holes confirms that U mineralization is at both ends of this area and is very widespread. Target tonnage is then 5,000m x 4.000m x 1m (at 2.5 t per cubic meter) = 50,000,000 tonnes. IF U grades hold up and about one third /half the area contains economic grades the stock will go ballistic. They are also drilling some deeper holes to see if there are additional layers of U mineralization. As U prices rise these previously marginal deposits will become very attractive. AEE "ballparks" costs at around US$20 tonne and assuming around half pound u per tonne (or more from richer zones) at $70-100 lb for U the economics gets extremely attractive for very low cost very shallow (one meter) strip mining with dump trucks and dozers.

Yes grades seem very low. From company:

WMC carried out downhole logging to establish grades of U3O8 in 32 drill holes. Background values of U3O8 in drill holes above and below the position of mineralisation were in the range 1 to 30 ppm (0.0001 to 0.003% U3O8). At the position of mineralisation 21 of the 32 drill holes tested possessed downhole uranium values of greater than 0.02% U3O8 over a minimum width of 0.15 metre. The values of uranium vary from this threshold of 0.02% to a maximum of 0.05% U3O8. Drill holes containing greater than 0.02% U3O8 define an area of uranium mineralisation that is approximately 8 square kilometres.

Perhaps someone might clarrify exactly what 1 to 30 ppm means. Seems pretty darn low to me!

 

[sydneysider]

Yes grades seem very low. From company:



Perhaps someone might clarrify exactly what 1 to 30 ppm means. Seems pretty darn low to me!

This is the reading above and below the mineralized zone. The mineralized zone itself is about three feet thick and is may grade between ane half to three quarters of a pound of U over an extremely large area. The area being drilled is about 20 square kilometers so the target is about 50 million tonnes of calcrete. U need to reead the last drilling report from AEE which was released several weeks ago to better understand what is happening at both ends of the deposit IF grades hold up thru substantial area of the deeposit then AEE will go ballistic.

 

[Sean K]

This is the reading above and below the mineralized zone. The mineralized zone itself is about three feet thick and is may grade between ane half to three quarters of a pound of U over an extremely large area. The area being drilled is about 20 square kilometers so the target is about 50 million tonnes of calcrete. U need to reead the last drilling report from AEE which was released several weeks ago to better understand what is happening at both ends of the deposit IF grades hold up thru substantial area of the deeposit then AEE will go ballistic.

Aaaah, that's a little bit better. 14 of the 31 holes drilled have intersections greater than 200ppm, but you'd really about 300, and thickness 0.5-1.5 m is a little thin isn't it? I'm not sure where you get the 3 feet from. I suppose over 20 square kilometers is pretty good. One hole of 815ppm is nice. But what are the readings on the other 17 holes? Would have liked to see that.

 

[Sean K]

Anything not going up 5% must be declared a dog.

The uranium bull just can't be speared at the moment.

URA is about to go up about 15% with the Ukraine ann. Hmmm, don't have that one yet either.

 

[mmmmining]

I have done a bit more research over weekend for Namibian uranium projects. I found very interesting picture. The following companies are there (If anyone find more, please correct me).

In order of ore grade (approx. depend on cut off, and degree of exploration)
Husab (EXT)
Langer Heinrich (PDN)
Goanikontes Dome (BMN)
Rossing Mine (RIO)
Tubas (DYL)
Valencia (FSY.TO)
Marenica (WME)
Trekkopje (UMN.AIM)

Lower grade seams not a big issue around that area. It is reported most of them can be recovered economically under current uranium price.

In order of the quality of radiometric map (equivalent, and adjusted)
Rossing Mine (RIO)
Husab (EXT)
Trekkopje (UMN.AIM)
Valencia (FSY.TO)
Goanikontes Dome (BMN)
Tubas (DYL)
Marenica (WME)
Langer Heinrich (PDN)

Very interesting that two largest proven resources are siting on both end. Rossing is red hot, on the other hand, Langer Heinrich is sitting on very small area, with little, but very hot spot. However, it is within a palaeochannel system.

Everyone has the opportunity to add resources to whatever they have already.

I believe there must be some kind of consideration. It is not a lasting picture that a bunch of juniors surrounding the big brothers. I believe it is just matter of time.

It is very hard to tell which one is the best investment, maybe basket approach is a sounding one? I don't know.

 

[noirua]

Uranium price is going great guns and so are many Uranium minnows - problem is that most haven't found any Uranium yet.

 

[Sean K]

Uranium price is going great guns and so are many Uranium minnows - problem is that most haven't found any Uranium yet.

LOL.

There are plenty who have however. Get on the Uphoric train.