Unusual volume alerts!

[johnnyg]

LOL get out $20shoes. I was just about to post the same chart, and still will. :

Interesting that today's total volume was traded through the ASX, where as the 2/10/09 volume through the ASX was only 301,894 compared to 3 million on the chart so there was a either a pre market or after market trade of 2.7 milion shares.

 

[$20shoes]

LOL get out $20shoes. I was just about to post the same chart, and still will. :

Interesting that today's total volume was traded through the ASX, where as the 2/10/09 volume through the ASX was only 301,894 compared to 3 million on the chart so there was a either a pre market or after market trade of 2.7 milion shares.

Haha -I tell you what. My shout at the bar then interesting - i hadn't scrutinised the parcels...

 

[tech/a]

SRI
BCC all to plan
AED
SEN cooking nicely

 

[MrBurns]

Can anyone explain why there is always such a large volume of Fairfax traded.

 

[johnnyg]

Could be a favorite with Institutions MrB?

BEC could be one to watch, would provide a nice tight entry.

 

[MrBurns]

Could be a favorite with Institutions MrB?

.

Dunno why though it never does anything except disappoint, I just bought some thinking it has to go somewhere soon or they might as well give up.

 

[johnnyg]

Nice move on MLB today.

AED must be just about ready to enter Tech.

 

[tech/a]

Good work JG

MLB ,textbook
AED ,setting up nicely
SIR ,keeps on keeping on and my old favorite not mentioned in this thread did it again for me today FMS.

 

[Arbinter]

Nice move on MLB today.

AED must be just about ready to enter Tech.

Bloody brilliant move by MLB - textbook indeed.

I'm still having a bit of an issue with picking some of these. For example

PEN - Beginning of the 14 day cycle saw a massive spike in volume, with a relatively wide range. Next few days indicated a lack of demand. Yet, given todays low volume and tight range, are we looking at a potential entry point? Am I misreading this?

It doesn't 'feel' right (Useful statement in a technical analysis thread )

Edit: Seems to me that I've not given consideration to the lack of resistance in price movements. No doubt countless other issues

 

[tech/a]

PEN.
Maybe this is some help.
Think its still cooking but is low risk setup
and here is why.

 

[satanoperca]

Tech/A,

This may be a stupid question but what is hidden selling?

Thanks to all those that have contributed to this thread, has provided some interesting ideas and thoughts based on volume.

I shout you all a beer if you were in the same pub.

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Tech/A,

This may be a stupid question but what is hidden selling?

Thanks to all those that have contributed to this thread, has provided some interesting ideas and thoughts based on volume.

I shout you all a beer if you were in the same pub.

Cheers

Before I get to the question also have a look at NWE its price action is classic.

To the question of hidden selling.
Wide range Extreme volume days are usually bought about by massive selling rather than buying.This is often hidden and doesnt become clear until the price action of the next day.
If it WAS buying then price would CONTINUE to rise as buyers rush to snap up a bargain.

If you look at the chart above you'll see 3 examples of selling and one of clear buying. It doesnt mean that demand isnt there ---quite the opposite.

But for stock to rise there must be either.
(1) Sustained and continued buying
(2) Exhaustion of sellers
(3) Withdrawl of sellers from the market.
As traders we will always be on the look out for LOW RISK buying opportunities so best to wait and see what the next day brings before rushing in.
Once the next day is seen we must then find evidence of (1),(2),or (3)
Then we have our low risk buys.

I think the charts mentioned above have shown some excellent examples.
Most are still waiting for the Stochastic signal to finish cooking but look classic at this point.
Agressive traders could take the setup before confirmation of setup if they judge risk to be acceptable V return.

Ive learn patience personally---sure you miss a few but you miss being stopped prematurely more often!

 

[satanoperca]

Thanks Tech/A,

Just trying to get my head around your answer while trying to read through Master the Markets.

I think for me it is a case of analysing and reflecting on past price action like NWE.

Wide range Extreme volume days are usually bought about by massive selling rather than buying.This is often hidden and doesnt become clear until the price action of the next day.

Ah, just go it I think. Another piece of the puzzle.

One more question on NWE. The chart shows days of extreme volume and wide ranging bar proceeded with a down bar the next day, however price trend was still up. On the proceeding day still with high volume and wide ranging bars but a close lower than open is it because the market just overshoot what the true demand/strength was. Ie momentum was not as strong as price action of the previous day to keep the upward movement from reaching further new highs - min correction. Hope that makes sense

 

[Arbinter]

Before I get to the question also have a look at NWE its price action is classic.

To the question of hidden selling.
Wide range Extreme volume days are usually bought about by massive selling rather than buying.This is often hidden and doesnt become clear until the price action of the next day.
If it WAS buying then price would CONTINUE to rise as buyers rush to snap up a bargain.

If you look at the chart above you'll see 3 examples of selling and one of clear buying. It doesnt mean that demand isnt there ---quite the opposite.

But for stock to rise there must be either.
(1) Sustained and continued buying
(2) Exhaustion of sellers
(3) Withdrawl of sellers from the market.
As traders we will always be on the look out for LOW RISK buying opportunities so best to wait and see what the next day brings before rushing in.
Once the next day is seen we must then find evidence of (1),(2),or (3)
Then we have our low risk buys.

I think the charts mentioned above have shown some excellent examples.
Most are still waiting for the Stochastic signal to finish cooking but look classic at this point.
Agressive traders could take the setup before confirmation of setup if they judge risk to be acceptable V return.

Ive learn patience personally---sure you miss a few but you miss being stopped prematurely more often!

So, given this, and given that your assessment of AED as still cooking, would you see the two as analogous? Hidden Selling on the Major Bar - though the selling on the next day comes from an even higher volume of selling. Perhaps in the case of AED a support stop @0.61 with low risk support of 0.625.

Gonna watch these with interest

 

[tech/a]

Analysis of any kind isn't an exact science.

How we all would love to be able to consider price action and say unequivocally that the next X Bars will do Y.

In answer to both,satanoperca and Arbinter
All we can do as analysts is place ourselves in front of momentum and enjoy the ride.

To successfully do this we need to:-
(1) Identify factors which indicate that there is a momentum at play.
(2) Find a pause in momentum so we can hop on with the least possible downside.
(3) Constantly monitor price as it tests each new low and each new high.
To determine who is winning the battle of perceived value.

So both charts will give clues as they develop.
The reason for presenting them here is to have those interested follow and analyse them as they develop.
At the end of the day even ONE making a 5R return and 3 making 1R losses is indeed a positive and welcome outcome.

So as an educational exercise lets watch and analyse these 4.
AED
NWE
PEN
and SEN

 

[satanoperca]

Excellent Idea.

Will have a look at the charts.

Cheers

 

[lukeaye]

Hi tech,

PEN, Looks like it could be out of steam to me.

From what im looking at, the last thrust was very weak, it has overlapped last S/R line.

Volume is also concerning, the move down from the top, was on half the volume of the previous bar, but similar spread. Is there now a lack of demand?

As to the trade, your probabilty of success is not as high as it could be, but the R/R given the good entry and tight stop you can run, could still make the trade a decent one.

SEN, much the same but gives very good R/R.
AED looks good, volume agrees, inside buying going on there.

EDIT: O you already covered above! sorry didnt see that, i thought u were asking for an analysis

 

[tech/a]

Update.
NWE Just some comments

 

[tech/a]

COK worth a look.

 

[satanoperca]

Thanks Tech/A,

What is the third pane down in your above post, must depict volume. tried replicating it in Amibroker.

COK could be interesting, based in similar volume spikes one could expect a pull back over the next few days.

Could these large volume spikes be caused in general from day tradies getting on the gravy train and pushing the price and volume up as it is a wide bar?

These same traders getting off the minute the price slightly retraces.

I need to look at more to come to any conclusion.