Unusual volume alerts!

[johnnyg]

SEV & SGT both up and out today, however both closed off the high so seems abit of selling came in. Any Fundamentalists know if there's a relation between the 2 just for interests sake?

 

[tech/a]

Other than the pattern in each I didnt think the volume was of any real interest J.

 

[tech/a]

Another interesting volume analysis.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Interesting volume on MEL.

 

[$20shoes]

Another interesting volume analysis.

This is a great thread. Tech, hope you get some newbies in taking note...nothing like stripping it all away and getting to the heart of the matter.
Very important lesson.

two things -

i) in your "outlier" moves scenario, I assume you are trying to preempt a high volume day, so your rules are not the same as what you were discussing earlier re: 5 x vol etc. In these scenarios, I assume you have a setup day? Is it stepping up over a range where volume or range has dried up?

ii) with your other method where you are tagging high volume days, do you give any discretionary weight to stocks in either a secondary correction or primary downtrend? Or do you find this is where you are commonly finding your setups? The reason I ask is that I would assume the common scenario might be that at some point where the market looks weak, the smarter money steps in to soak up supply. That is, it needs to looks like stopping volume...

 

[tech/a]

Hi Shoes.

This is a great thread. Tech, hope you get some newbies in taking note...nothing like stripping it all away and getting to the heart of the matter.
Very important lesson.

two things -

i) in your "outlier" moves scenario, I assume you are trying to preempt a high volume day, so your rules are not the same as what you were discussing earlier re: 5 x vol etc. In these scenarios, I assume you have a setup day? Is it stepping up over a range where volume or range has dried up?

As I said work in progress however have come a fair way so far.

I use > 3 x volume these high volume Tags or Markers are very often found in prolonged accumulation or/and distribution patterns.
You'll find that again often those extreme volume days of > 5 x average volume are more a sign of selling than buying (Confusing I know--price spikes up and volume is massive--just has to be renewed interest---right---) this can be seen in the next bar which is often a reversal bar and an inside day on wide range days.

What we are actually seeing is often an EXHAUSTION of sellers.Until sellers at higher prices are exhausted a stock has no way of moving forward for a prolonged period.
So I see these Markers as signals that interest is well and truly there but sellers need to be removed,as you'll note when you look at charts this often takes 2 or more attempts at a price level before succeeding. Often moving to a new higher level to start all over again.

But what is noticeable is the volume bar becomes a support in it self. The volume traded at that price becomes a fair price and god value so price RARELY falls below is for more than a bar before moving back up.

So IM LOOKING for a low risk entry and that's often not the next few days. I find any trading below 50% retracement of the marker is a good point to start.
Its a method you need patience for as it will move ahead only when selling is removed and buying MAINTAINS a steady pace.
We don't know how it will pan out---maybe an outlier move maybe a sustained trend---rarely a reversal.
To me I'm finding momentum and placing myself inside it.
Often on a down day on EXTREMELY LOW volume.

There is more on the Money management side which makes these exciting but suffice to say position sizing is conservative until its crystal clear its off.
This is more about low volume reversal days than high volume up days.

ii) with your other method where you are tagging high volume days, do you give any discretionary weight to stocks in either a secondary correction or primary downtrend? Or do you find this is where you are commonly finding your setups? The reason I ask is that I would assume the common scenario might be that at some point where the market looks weak, the smarter money steps in to soak up supply. That is, it needs to looks like stopping volume...

Yes.
I'm looking for prolonged corrective moves and there are heaps now.
(None in Oct 2007!!). The longer the move the more tags.
The analysis is where is it at now. Whats happening. You analyse the consolidation.

Sometimes it will be in an up move.Often a wave 4 so we need to ascertain whether this is a distribution or a continuation of the trend.
Ive noted that in these cases Range is less relative to price than in the accumulation phase.

So the key is minimise risk and place myself/ourselves in a position where we can get massive R/R. Along those lines EXIT becomes a very important topic we need to be able to recognise when Selling IS selling! Not often clear on a daily chart. So at 50% gain I always place a trailing stop.

So YES I agree with your summary.
Let me know if you find anything (Nuance) of interest.

A bit of crossing on this thread but I think I'll only post these ideas and methods here.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17452

 

[tech/a]

As in THIS THREAD not the other.

 

[$20shoes]

Thanks Tech. Appreciate the detail you've put into your posts here. l like what you are trying to do...very interesting...

 

[jancha]

I thought it might be useful to start a thread where people could alert other ASF members to companies that are experiencing a sudden change in the amount of volume being traded or unusual patterns of volume being traded.

We all have different stocks on our watchlists and thought this thread could be a way of alerting others on ASF to unusual amounts of volume in stocks that others may not be watching.

Am hoping this thread could be useful in the same way that the Potential Breakouts and Outstanding Breakouts threads are.

Would BCC qualify in this thread? Volume up to 99m

 

[surfingman]

BCC $0.065 $0.020 (44.4%) 95.94M 19958%
BCCO $0.021 $0.008 (61.5%) 8.61M 8126%

BCC volume up 19958%, I am sure it qualifies.

 

[tech/a]

Would BCC qualify in this thread? Volume up to 99m

Sure and note the Markers prior.
This is a very wide range Bar on massive volume (Today) so would expect an inside day tommorow.
Click to expand.

 

[jancha]

Sure and note the Markers prior.
This is a very wide range Bar on massive volume (Today) so would expect an inside day tommorow.
Click to expand.

Thanks Tech but when you say an inside trade day tomorrow what does that actually mean? Hows good old Moana anyway? Still a bit cold down there i see. The warmer weather seems to come later & later each year. Part of the reason for heading North.

 

[tech/a]

An inside day is one where the high and low of the day fits inside the high and low of the previous day. In the chart above the 3rd bar in is an inside day.

Moana---sensational--- all year round, love the sound of the sea at night one of the reasons I dont move North!

 

[johnnyg]

Does this sound about right Tech?

 

[tech/a]

Yep thats the pattern and thats the accumulation I'm on about.
See Chart and click to expand

 

[nunthewiser]

as pointed out by a visitor to chat yesterday ..... " scar" .....cheers


yesterdays vols on ORO might qualify for unusual on no news

 

[tech/a]

BCC got our inside day today.

 

[nunthewiser]

as pointed out by a visitor to chat yesterday ..... " scar" .....cheers


yesterdays vols on ORO might qualify for unusual on no news

thanks "scar" .....nicely spotted indeed . still no news .........

 

[johnnyg]

Oroya is focused on the discovery of large, bulk tonnage gold, base metal and nickel deposits

Spec Goldie from the looks of it nun. Someone might know something that the others don't, and what a time to release some news on a new gold deposit or some results from drilling.

 

[$20shoes]

MLB has attracted two days of high volume, both with very small range.
You can see that a lot of volume was exchanged during the sharp selloff in late August. The SP looked to be in a rout, until significant volume stepped in here, at a technical point of support that has been tested several times before.

Anyway we have a low risk setup here with stops @1.54

What ya think?