UMC - United Minerals Corporation

[Markcoinoz]

Hi Vine,

I too am perplexed as too why this selling has been happening.

At first, i thought it might be some of the Opes fallout.

However, considering the London Roadshow it could be C/R.

Apart from the I/O, they also have the 25% JV with Norsk Hydro for Bauxite.

I am just wondering if it would be for the Phase 1 & 2 of the Mitchell South Plateau project as they did mention a wide area drilling reconnaissance in the January Quarterly for the field season 2008.

Just the other thing to note, in the original JV, UMC did state:

"UMC is confident of maintaining its 25% share despite the project's very large size potential with estimated multi-billion dollar capital requirements."

I would expect a big drain on funds especially if they are wanting to fast track the project to capture the expected increase in Bauxite prices over the next few years.

Thankfully, Hydro are wearing the greater burden of the Feasibility Studies once they get to that point.

IMO, its still one of the best long term I/O stocks with top class management.

Both projects are first rate.

If i had some more funds i would be looking at topping up around this level.

Unfortunately i don't

Therefore, i will seek patience

Cheers markcinoz

 

[Broadside]

I am fairly new to trading and can't work out why UMC has fallen 30% in the last week or so, there has been no ann. I have been watching this share and thought it would be a good buy around $1 but am I missing something that could cause this drop. Thanks for any info.

I'm old to trading and can't for the life of me work it out either. Frustrating as hell.

markco you may be right but haven't heard any whispers of a capital raising. Nothing seems to make sense the JORC has been brought forward which should increase the urgency to accumulate.

 

[Markcoinoz]

Hi Broadside,

Since there has not been any discussion for 2 weeks i thought i would bring it back up the top.

Good to see that UMC has rallied again over the last fortnight.

Before the plunge, there were a lot of Bot trading which looked like accumulation. Over this last week, the Bot has been back again.

Is there a major seller and accumulator?
Perhaps the updated Top 20 will shed some light on it.

If you look at Friday's trades there were a lot of very small trades and then there were a couple of very good trades around 11.20am. Actually, that was the heaviest time of trading between 11 -12.

I will have a look in the morning and see if there is similar trading around that time frame.

Expecting a good week ahead.

Cheers markcoinoz

 

[Broadside]

hi markco, looks like the bot is at it again today, I suppose we should be flattered, now that I have all the want I am hoping the handbrake gets released soon! the quarterly last night looked good and bauxite drilling expected next quarter....bungy still reckons we're in line for 100m-ish tonnes as you would have seen.

Plenty to look forward to, I just need to fund my options conversion.

 

[Markcoinoz]

hi markco, looks like the bot is at it again today, I suppose we should be flattered, now that I have all the want I am hoping the handbrake gets released soon! the quarterly last night looked good and bauxite drilling expected next quarter....bungy still reckons we're in line for 100m-ish tonnes as you would have seen.

Plenty to look forward to, I just need to fund my options conversion.

Hi Broadside,

It looks like the BOTS have had their fill and gone away in May.

Hope so.

Yesterday was the start of the breakout IMO.

Today's volume seems to confirm it.
1.13mln shares traded to close at 1.45.

Noticed the options are trading at a decent discount now.
1.17

Doubt that will last long.

Has been a couple of good sessions with alot more to come.

Enjoy the ride

Cheers markcoinoz

 

[Santoro]

Hi Broadside,

It looks like the BOTS have had their fill and gone away in May.

Hope so.

Yesterday was the start of the breakout IMO.

Today's volume seems to confirm it.
1.13mln shares traded to close at 1.45.

Noticed the options are trading at a decent discount now.
1.17

Doubt that will last long.

Has been a couple of good sessions with alot more to come.

Enjoy the ride

Cheers markcoinoz

Volume solid today, admittedly a strong across the board, but has been strong for the last few days for UMC.

 

[Markcoinoz]

Volume solid today, admittedly a strong across the board, but has been strong for the last few days for UMC.

Hi Santoro,

Yep, it has has finally broken through.

The BOTS were running hot again this morning knocking everything down in its path. However, after lunch time the Bots disappeared and the buyers started soaking up the sellers. A key resistance target got broken at 1.60.

Finished for the day @ 1.605 with 2.82mln traded for the day.

Looking very positive for next week.

Someone on another forum also mentioned there might be a Broker Report coming out within the next week or two.

I would be surprised if there is a Broker Report coming out given we are so close to the all important Railway Jorc announcement.

Cheers markcoinoz

 

[robert toms]

What are the bots ?
I see that the options are up to $1.37.Anyone know what price and date they are exercisable etc.
I did a search but could not find the info....anyone know where to find it.
So far so good with this one...plenty of blue sky

 

[Markcoinoz]

Hi Robert Toms,

Here is a handy sight to bookmark anytime your wanting to find out if a company has options.

http://tradingroom.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?code=UMCO

They expire July 2008 Exercise price .20

BOTS = Algorithmic Trading

Sometimes used by Brokers.

They set a string of small buy and sell parcels which automatically triggers when it reaches the price the Broker wants. You will usually see very small parcels of shares. Sometimes, they can be buying and selling to themselves to make it look like active trading. As well, they don't pay brokerage fees.

Therefore there is no cost to them.

UMC has been riddled with Bot trading for along time.

With small trades they can force the price up or down.


However, the most important thing to realise is they are there to serve a purpose. There has been a lot of accumulation recently. That is also why you would have seen Becoming a Substantial Shareholder notice in yesterday in the ASX announcements.

Its not a level playing field no matter what the Corporate Watchdog says.

BOTS are used to shake out the loose sellers to accumulate shares for their clients.

Its not a big issue if you are holding long term.

However, it is annoying watching the games being played.

Cheers markcoinoz

 

[Santoro]

Someone on another forum also mentioned there might be a Broker Report coming out within the next week or two.

I would be surprised if there is a Broker Report coming out given we are so close to the all important Railway Jorc announcement.

Cheers markcoinoz

markco

Yes, it is getting close to the JORC for the Railway Prospect and fortunately the second drill rig may ensure this happens as announced. Should the JORC confirm around 100 million tonnes DSO, this would put UMC [market cap @ 186 million] with similar iron ore reserves to say MGX [market cap 2.5 billion] and with production expected to begin in late 2009 one could assume over the next twelve months that UMC will continue to appreciate.

Will be good to move one of the drilling rigs to Jumbo Junction which is along strike from BHP's Area C (5km east of JJ) and confirm the aeromagentic indication that it may be a similar size to the Railway Prospect.

This will put UMC in an enviable position moving forward over the next couple of years, what with the huge JV opportunity with Norsk Hydro in the Kimberleys. Should energy prices continue to rise which seems likely and the abundance of energy off the Kimberley coast, UMC seems a likley strategic play of the future.

 

[Markcoinoz]

Hi Santoro,

The I/O will take care of itself for future funding with Norsk Hydro.

IMO, the Bauxite potential is outstanding if they can pull it of.

The difficulty will be the sensitive issue of the environment around the Mitchell Plateau. I was reading a report not that long ago that predicts Aluminium demand will be increasing from 2009-10 onwards. Its a long bow for UMC.
But it is one that would make UMC a major in years to come if they were successful.

Regarding the Railway, i am hoping for between 50 - 100 mln tns initial Jorc.

Even though they have stated they are aiming for 100mln tns, more often than not JORCS tend to be overstated in the initial run up.

Even 50mln tns of DSO would still be an outstanding result.

Have they mentioned when they will start drilling Jumbo?

Its in a prime position.

Something else to keep an eye on is the I/O contracts for China - BHP/RIO.
I read they are aiming for 84%. If that becomes the case, it will be a first for a major to not conform to other majors who agreed to 71% increase.
The contracts must be agreed to by June 30th.

Excellent times for outstanding juniors.

Cheers markcoinoz

 

[robert toms]

Thanks for that Marknoinoz...I shall look further .When these prices move without any further info,either someone has info or someone is playing games!

 

[Broadside]

Thanks for that Marknoinoz...I shall look further .When these prices move without any further info,either someone has info or someone is playing games!

It's a long overdue rerating plus the fact that iron ore prices are set for further substantial rises this year. I think UMC is slowly but surely getting on the radar of more investors looking for quality ore (high grade DSO) close to production. We can expect a JORCed resource released in combination with a scoping study in the next couple of months so it's not surprising we are seeing rises on little news: time is running out for early bird investors to jump on board.

 

[Broadside]

they've completed Phase 1 drilling program of Railway and commencing Phase 2. JORC will be released for Railway in late June/July ditto scoping study.

Unfortunately this isn't exciting news, all they are doing is drilling holes and finding Fe, the market would have preferred if they just left it undrilled and peered over the neighbour's fence and announce some "conceptual" targets a la FDL and EPS.

 

[spooly74]

they've completed Phase 1 drilling program of Railway and commencing Phase 2. JORC will be released for Railway in late June/July ditto scoping study.

Unfortunately this isn't exciting news, all they are doing is drilling holes and finding Fe, the market would have preferred if they just left it undrilled and peered over the neighbour's fence and announce some "conceptual" targets a la FDL and EPS.

LOL ... maybe they need to buy one of these new fancy computer programs.

The appropriate boxes are getting ticked mate. Can`t fault managment at all.
Phase 2 infill had already commenced.

RAILWAY PROSPECT
PHASE ONE DRILLING COMPLETED
LOGGING SHOWS WIDESPREAD IRON ORE MINERALISATION
The company is pleased to announce that the Phase One drilling program on a 100m by 160m grid at the Railway Prospect has been completed. This has involved 110 holes of RC drilling for 10,015 metres.
Geological logging has shown widespread iron ore mineralisation as expected.
Receipt of full assay results from the Phase One drilling program should provide the Company with sufficient information to enable an inferred JORC compliant resource to be calculated by July 2008.

 

[Broadside]

good to see you're still on board spooly!

the next big question once Railway is defined is what does Jumbo Junction hold?

the X factor is the bauxite JV with Norsk. Happy days anyway for the Fe alone.

Worst case scenario they road haul 2mtpa initially and build a rail spur. Scoping study may answer a few questions for us, if I recall correctly they modeled for 2mtpa and 5mtpa.

 

[Santoro]

good to see you're still on board spooly!

the next big question once Railway is defined is what does Jumbo Junction hold?

the X factor is the bauxite JV with Norsk. Happy days anyway for the Fe alone.

Worst case scenario they road haul 2mtpa initially and build a rail spur. Scoping study may answer a few questions for us, if I recall correctly they modeled for 2mtpa and 5mtpa.

The following project development concepts will be examined:
•
A 2 million tonne per annum direct shipping ore (DSO) operation using contract mining, crushing and screening, with road haulage of the DSO products to a railhead on the multi-user FMG railroad for rail freight to Port Hedland for export.
•
A 5 million tonne per annum direct shipping ore (DSO) operation using contract mining, crushing and screening, with a purpose built spur rail haulage of the DSO products to connect with the multi-user FMG railroad for rail freight to Port Hedland for export.
•
A 10 million tonne per annum direct shipping ore (DSO) operation using contract mining, crushing and screening, with a purpose built spur rail haulage of the DSO products to connect with the multi-user FMG railroad for rail freight to Port Hedland for export.

If the numbers turn out big enough and Jumbo Junction results (no drilling yet) are similar to the Railway Prospect only then would you think 10mtpa would be considered an option.

 

[Markcoinoz]

Updated version of the Ocean Equities Report as of 21st May 2008.

http://www.minesite.com/fileadmin/content/pdfs/Brokers_Notes_May/UMC_Iron_Ore_Update_-_210508.pdf

All coming together now.

Looks like June/July are going to be exciting times.

Cheers markcoinoz

 

[Markcoinoz]

Good to see a few here are still in UMC.

Today's action i feel is just a precursor as UMC stretches it's legs in preparation for the main run.

I am very encouraged as to the way management has kept us informed without any hype. They have a very good idea as to what can be expected for our maiden Jorc.

Anywhere around 100mln tns will be fantastic.

The best part is thats only the beginning.

This was taken from the above Ocean Equities Update:

Phase 1. Full essay results expected to be sufficient to enable an inferred Jorc compliant resource calculated by early July.

Phase 2. Infill drilling original Railway target zone 50 RC holes 100m x 80m grid to be complete by mid june. Expected to be sufficient for an Indicated Jorc compliant resource expected to be calculated by end of July.

After Phase 2 programme is complete at Railway it is expected the drill rig will be used to accelerate UMC's exploration activities with Jumbo Junction - Northern CID prospects and Railway East prospect.

Key Events/Valuation Triggers:

Raiway - phase 2 drilling programme is ongoing and expected to be complete mid-June. The programme includes a further 5,000m of RC drilling, at 100m x 80m grid, which should be sufficient for an indicated Jorc compliant resource.

Railway - Announcement of a maiden inferred Jorc expected late June/early July.

Railway - Announcement of indicated Jorc expected late July.


Railway - Full scoping study to be published once a Jorc compliance report is completed which is expected to lead to a further acceleration in the development of the Railway project. (eg: Port & Infrastructure Negotiations)

14 new exploration targets - Low level geophysical surveys and ground geophysics have been commissioned and expected to be complete in June to outline further detailed drill targets

Exploration drilling - diamond drilling is expected to commence in July at Jumbo Junction, Northern CID deposits and Railway East Prospect.

Bauxite Project:

Kimberley drilling programme is scheduled to commence in mid-June 2008.

On going WA Government review on the future of the Mitchell Plateau Bauxite project temporary Licence.


Then you add on top of that:

4 high priority Marra Mamba targets (Includes Jumbo Junction)
A large Channel iron deposit target
7 further Marra Mamba targets
2 Brockman iron ore tagets

That can only mean alot of exciting times ahead.

Then of course down the track the Bauxite will come into play.

We have a very piddly shareprice IMO with enormous upside.

Cheers markcoinoz

 

[rob]

good to see you're still on board spooly!

the next big question once Railway is defined is what does Jumbo Junction hold?

the X factor is the bauxite JV with Norsk. Happy days anyway for the Fe alone.

Worst case scenario they road haul 2mtpa initially and build a rail spur. Scoping study may answer a few questions for us, if I recall correctly they modeled for 2mtpa and 5mtpa.

Have been listening and reading interesting things about UMC, as well as cfe. hace got some ago and would like to own some umc too for the long hall, what do you think