Ukraine War

wayneL said:

Rumours of a coup attempt in Russia

Click to expand...

Maybe the pocket along the eastern border that Russia currently occupies will be further known as Wagnerstan.

sptrawler said:

That's the problem with using mercenaries, you buy their loyalty, when the money runs out the loyalty goes with it, they look for the next employer.

Click to expand...

Russia is losing, someone has to take the blame between the Wagner group and the Russian military.

Russia issues arrest warrant for Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin

Russian authorities stepped up security in Moscow and issued an arrest warrant for Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner paramilitary group, on charges of mutiny after he called on his troops to oust the country’s military leadership.

Prigozhin, a one-time confidant of President Vladimir Putin, called for retaliation after claiming that the Russian military killed “an enormous amount” of his troops in Friday’s strikes on Wagner camps. The military denied these strikes had occurred, and there was no independent evidence to back up his claim.

As Russian soldiers in armoured personnel carriers secured key installations in Moscow, leading Russian military commanders who had worked with Wagner urged the group’s fighters to stop before it was too late. “The last thing we need is to unleash a real civil war inside the country. Come back to your senses,” urged Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, the deputy chief of Russian military intelligence.

While there were no reports of clashes, Prigozhin said that his forces will launch a “march for justice.” Early on Saturday morning, he said that his troops had already left eastern Ukraine and started entering the southern Russian city of Rostov, where he said young conscripts offered no resistance. There was no immediate independent confirmation.

Video posted on social media showed armoured vehicles deployed in central Moscow, including on the street where the Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian Parliament, and the Prosecutor General’s Office are located.

“The evil that the military leadership of the country brings forward must be stopped. They have forgotten the word justice, and we will return it,” Prigozhin said in an audio recording posted on Wagner’s social media Friday. “Anyone attempting resistance will be considered a threat and immediately destroyed. This includes all the checkpoints on our path and any aircraft above our heads.” Friday’s events showed the depth of political crisis inside Russia after 16 months of gruelling war marked by a series of military setbacks. Pressure is rising on Putin to squelch any threat that Prigozhin now poses to his power, and to Russia’s ability to continue waging the war. Putin, so far, hasn’t made any public statements about the drama unfolding in Russia.

An armoured personnel carrier is seen on a street of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia. Picture: Reuters

A former convict who grew close to Putin after serving as his caterer in St Petersburg, Prigozhin has used the war in Ukraine to become one of Russia’s most powerful and popular personalities, with tens of thousands of battle-hardened troops on his payroll.

He thrived in Putin’s top-down authoritarian state where the Russian president controlled underlings by pitting them against one another. Wagner troops were the only Russian forces able to advance in Ukraine in nearly a year, taking the city of Bakhmut last month, and he has garnered a wide following for his firebrand, populist rhetoric against Russian elites.

He has also established recruiting centres across Russia. Wagner’s ranks include many former members of Russia’s military, particularly from the special forces and other selective units, as well as fighters recruited in Russian prisons with a promise of amnesty. The group has a cultlike culture, and practices executing deserters and traitors with a sledgehammer.

For the past several months, Prigozhin has been focusing his vitriol on Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. Earlier on Friday, he accused Shoigu of leading Russia into war in Ukraine on a false narrative in order to get awards and a promotion in rank.

Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russian troops in Ukraine who, unlike Shoigu and Gerasimov, has been repeatedly praised by Prigozhin, made a late-night video appeal asking Wagner’s troops not to obey the group’s owner.

“We are one blood. We are warriors,” he said. “The enemy is only waiting for our internal political situation to flare up. Stop your columns. Resolve all the problems in a peaceful way.” Russia’s Federal Security Service, also known as FSB, called on Wagner’s troops to detain Prigozhin.

Putin has been informed about the situation around Prigozhin and all necessary measures are being taken, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to state news media.

National Security Council spokesman Adam Hodge said the U.S. is “monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments.” President Biden has been briefed on the developments, Hodge said.

Over the past several years, Prigozhin turned Wagner into a highly skilled military force that assisted Moscow’s goals around the world, from eastern Ukraine in 2014 to Syria, Libya, Mali and the Central African Republic.

By Prigozhin’s own admission, Wagner lost 20,000 troops in the monthslong battle for Bakhmut that left the Ukrainian city in ruins. As the most combat-efficient Russian unit in Ukraine, Wagner has played a pivotal role in the war. It has already briefly clashed with regular Russian forces near Bakhmut this month, detaining the commander of a Russian brigade whom Prigozhin accused of having mined the road used by Wagner when it pulled back from the city.

The Russian Ministry of Defence tried earlier this month to assert control over Wagner, which has its own tanks, multiple-launch rocket systems and aircraft, by demanding all paramilitary groups and private military companies sign formal contracts to come under the ministry’s control.

Prigozhin said that Wagner was ready to find a way to comply with the order. “But seeing that we are unbroken, they launched missile strikes on our rear bases. An enormous amount of our combat comrades have died. We will decide how to respond to this crime. The next step is ours,” he said. “This is not a military coup, this is a march of justice. Our actions do not impede the troops.” He added that Putin’s administration, the government, the police and the Russian National Guard will function as normal “once we finish.” “Justice in the armed forces will be restored, and after that justice in all of Russia,” Prigozhin said.

In Friday’s recordings, Prigozhin said that he has 25,000 men under arms but also considers the entire army, and the entire Russian society, his strategic reserve. Russian commentators reacted to this turn of events with shock.

“God save Russia,” posted Oleg Tsaryov, a former Ukrainian politician who has been a prominent Russian politician since 2014.

Earlier in the day, Prigozhin said Shoigu lied to Russians and to Putin when he told a “story about the crazy aggression from the Ukrainian side and the plans to attack us with the entire NATO bloc.” In an implied criticism of Putin, he added that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would have agreed to a deal if the Kremlin had deigned to negotiate.

The Wall Street Journal

Click to expand...

JohnDe said:

Russia is losing, someone has to take the blame between the Wagner group and the Russian military.

Click to expand...

A deal with the new employer, has probably already been done.

sptrawler said:

A deal with the new employer, has probably already been done.

Click to expand...

Wondering if the Russian army will now back peddle even faster when they come up against the Wagners.

farmerge said:

Wondering if the Russian army will now back peddle even faster when they come up against the Wagners.

Click to expand...

My guess it is more about inciting public unrest, to influence the army, rather than actually taking on the army.
Much easier to have the population and the army on one side and Putin plus his close circle on the other, then it's game over.
Having Wagner confront Putin gives the public a catalyst and a bit of confidence, it will be interesting to see if some mass demonstrations start up, that's when the army lose heart, soldiers having to take on their own families.
Like what happened that really caused the U.S to stop the Vietnam war, once the U.S started shooting their own kids for protesting against the war, when it was the same kids who would be sent over there to fight, the politicians have lost control of the situation.


Four Kent State University students were killed and nine were injured on May 4, 1970, when members of the Ohio National Guard opened fire on a crowd gathered to protest the Vietnam War. The tragedy was a watershed moment for a nation divided by the conflict in Southeast Asia. In its immediate aftermath, a student-led strike forced the temporary closure of colleges and universities across the country. Some political observers believe the events of that day in northeast Ohio tilted public opinion against the war and may have contributed to the downfall of President Richard Nixon.

The Kent State massacre is a great story on the power of the people, when they're pizzed.

Wagner backs Ukraine, funded by the CIA...

Conspiracy theory heaven.

But, seriously, this Wagner revolt seems to have legs. Once that gets out to the general pop in Russia, how destabilising is that going to be...

sptrawler said:

.

The Kent State massacre is a great story on the power of the people, when they're pizzed.

Kent State shootings - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Click to expand...

Just for the record, more protesting students - at least 6 - were killed at Jackson State university on the same day. But they were black.

Need a Russian Coup attempt/ civil war /Mafia and oligarch / kleptomaniac thread.

Sean K said:

Wagner backs Ukraine, funded by the CIA...

Conspiracy theory heaven.

But, seriously, this Wagner revolt seems to have legs. Once that gets out to the general pop in Russia, how destabilising is that going to be...

Click to expand...

Good afternoon
New Corp published article:

Wagner mercenary group shoots down Russian military helicopter sparking civil war threat​

Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing a major crisis as the head of Wagner mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin calls on other private armies to join in toppling the Russian military.

Staff Writer with AFP

6 min read
June 24, 2023 - 1:57PM
News Corp Australia Network

Moscow’s mayor has confirmed “anti-terror” measures had been undertaken in the Russian capital after the chief of mercenary group Wagner vowed to bring down the country’s military leadership.
Authorities in the regions of Rostov and Lipetsk also said security had been reinforced there.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said his 25,000 strong private army would fight to the death in its mutinous mission sparked by Russian strikes that had targeted his men.

“All of us are ready to die. All 25,000, and then another 25,000,” Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a new audio message. “We are dying for the Russian people.”

The escalating events threaten to erupt into a civil war and place Russian President Vladimir Putin into the thick of his biggest crisis since he invaded Ukraine in 2021.

Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin addresses the Russian army’s top brass standing in front of bodies he presented as fallen Wagner fighters at an undisclosed location. Picture: Concord/AFP
In response to Wagner’s turnaround, anti-Kremlin figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky has publicly urged Russians to support Prigozhin against the Russian military might.
“We need to help now, and then, if necessary, we will fight this one, too,” Khodorkovsky, a former oil tycoon who fell foul of the Kremlin, wrote on social media. He said it was important to back “even the devil” if he decided to take on the Kremlin.
“And yes, this is just the beginning.”
Prigozhin, 62, earlier claimed to have downed a Russian military helicopter saying the Kremlin’s forces had launched strikes on his own men.


“A helicopter has just now opened fire at a civilian column. It has been shot down by units of PMC Wagner,” he said.

Prigozhin’s mutiny is the most audacious challenge to President Vladimir Putin since the start of the offensive in Ukraine last year and his private army is largely responsible for Russia’s successes early on its invasion of Ukraine. Prigozhin said in a video posted to social media that his forces had entered the southern Russian region of Rostov but did not provide any immediate proof.
Russian authorities confirmed they had tightened security measures in several regions in response to what they labelled as an “armed rebellion”.

“A decision has been taken to reinforce security measures in the region,” said Igor Artamonov, governor of the Lipetsk region south of Moscow.

“I ask everyone to remain calm.”

The region of Lipetsk is approximately 400km south of Moscow.
In a statement, the FSB said: “Prigozhin’s statements and actions are in fact a call to start an armed civil conflict on the territory of the Russian Federation and a stab in the back to Russian servicemen fighting pro-fascist Ukrainian forces”.

While Prigozhin’s outfit has spearheaded much of Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, he has in recent months engaged in a bitter feud with Moscow’s military leadership and has repeatedly blamed Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, for his fighters’ deaths.

Military commentators have noted that Prigozhin has been clever to target Russia’s military leaders and not directly go after President Vladimir Putin who they speculate has already gone into hiding.
The extraordinary developments came after Prigozhin accused Moscow of targeting his forces with deadly missile strikes.

“They (Russia’s military) conducted missile strikes at our rear camps. A huge number of our fighters, our comrades died,” Prigozhin said in a series of furious audio messages released by his spokespeople.

“The council of commanders of PMC Wagner has made a decision — the evil that the military leadership of the country brings must be stopped.”

He warned Russians against resisting his forces and called on them to join him, adding “there are 25,000 of us”.

“We need to put an end to this mess,” he said, adding, “this is not a military coup, but a march of justice”.


Earlier Saturday state news agency TASS reported that Moscow authorities had instituted tighter security measures, and local media published amateur footage showing armoured vehicles deploying throughout the capital, including near the defence ministry.

The Russian defence ministry said Ukrainian troops were taking advantage of the infighting to ready an assault near the east Ukraine hotspot of Bakhmut.

A prominent Russian general urged Prigozhin to call off efforts to remove the leadership of Moscow’s defence ministry.

“I urge you to stop,” Sergei Surovikin, commander of Russia’s aerospace forces, said in a highly unusual video address.

“The enemy is just waiting for the internal political situation to worsen in our country. Before it is too late, it is necessary … to obey the will and order of the popularly elected President of the Russian Federation”.
Kyiv said it was monitoring the infighting in Moscow. “We are watching,” the Ukrainian defence ministry tweeted, while Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said rival Russian factions had begun to “eat each other over power and money”.

Ukraine was also on high alert after new Russian missile strikes Saturday, with explosions reported in Kyiv and the eastern city of Kharkiv. US President Joe Biden had been briefed on the situation in Russia and Washington “will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments”, National Security Council spokesman Adam Hodge said.

On Friday, Prigozhin said Moscow’s forces were retreating in Ukraine’s east and south following the start of Kyiv’s counteroffensive early this month.

That directly contradicted Putin’s account that Ukraine was suffering “catastrophic” losses and that there was a lull in fighting.

“We are washing ourselves in blood,” Prigozhin said.

“No one is bringing reserves. What they tell us is the deepest deception,” he added, referring to the Russian military and political leadership.

QUESTIONING MILITARY OPERATION​

After years of operating in the shadows, Prigozhin has now admitted to running the elusive mercenary group Wagner and even interfering in US elections.

His forces, bolstered by tens of thousands of prison recruits, played a central role in Russia’s capture of the town of Bakhmut in the eastern region of Donetsk, the longest and bloodiest battle of the conflict.
However, this week he accused Moscow’s top brass of deceiving Russians about the offensive in Ukraine.

“Why did the special military operation begin?” he said. “The war was needed for the self-promotion of a bunch of bastards.”

Rarely has such a controversial figure shot to this degree of prominence on the Russian political stage under Putin.

Prigozhin rose from a modest background to become part of the inner circle around Putin.

He spent nine years in prison in the final period of the USSR after being convicted of fraud and theft.

In the chaos of the 1990s, he began a moderately successful business selling hot dogs.

From there he fell into the restaurant business and opened a luxury location in Saint Petersburg whose customers included Putin, then making the transition from working in the KGB to local politics.

However, in recent months, Prigozhin has become embroiled in a bitter power struggle with the defence ministry.

He has accused the Russian military of attempting to “steal” victories in Ukraine from his forces, and slammed Moscow’s “monstrous bureaucracy” for slowing military gains.

UKRAINIANS WARNED OF ‘PANIC’ AMID NUCLEAR LEAK FEAR​

Kyiv has urged Ukrainians not to panic or stockpile iodine tablets after President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed Russia was organising radiation leak at Europe’s largest nuclear plant.

Zelensky said Russian forces controlling Zaporizhzhia were planning a “terror attack” by orchestrating a radiation leak.

The Kremlin said it was a “lie” but the president’s warning put many Ukrainians on alert and sent demand for iodine at many pharmacies skyrocketing.

“Read and share but don’t panic! Don’t play the enemy’s game. President Zelensky said nothing new,” the Ukrainian health ministry said late on Thursday.

“Russia is a terrorist country from which, like a monkey with a grenade, you can expect anything.”

In a separate statement, the ministry warned against the adverse effects of incorrectly administering iodine, adding that it could even be fatal. Interior Minister Igor Klymenko said authorities were monitoring the situation.

“Specialists are ready for various scenarios,” he said on social media. An incident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant could release radioactive iodine into the atmosphere and in turn increase the risk of thyroid cancer, as happened after the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.

The tablets can help prevent radioactive iodine concentrating in the thyroid gland so it can be flushed out of the body naturally.

Demand for iodine tablets soared at Kyiv pharmacies but full-blown panic rushes had yet to set in.
Fears for the nuclear power plant have persisted throughout Moscow’s invasion and have increased since the destruction of a dam that provided the plant with cooling water.

UN nuclear chief Rafael Grossi met the head of Russia’s nuclear agency Rosatom on Friday in Russia’s European enclave of Kaliningrad, but there were no announced breakthroughs from the discussions.

With AFP

EDIT: CUT AND PASTE STUFF UP

Will the Wagner dash from Rostov to Moscow succeed or will it be like Operation Chenla II ?

According to channels, Wagner troops have entered Voronezh, which could bring the second Oblast's capital under Wagner's command

P.S. the ruskies have some pretty good kit, not deployed to Ukraine, it would seem.

OSINTdefender Retweet
ed
Dmitri
@wartranslated

Putin promises to fight back:

"They're pushing us to a defeat and capitulation ... a strike against Russia, our people .. our actions will be BRUTAL ... everyone who consciously went on this path will take an immediate punishment ... all departments have been instructed ... additional anti-terrorist measures being introduced in regions and Moscow ... operation of civil and military departments in Rostov are challenging. As a citizen, I will do EVERYTHING to protect the Constitution and the people. Those who started the mutiny BETRAYED RUSSIA AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE The only right choice is to lay down weapons."

Not a peep from the US about all this. Probably can't believe their luck. Maybe.

If Wagner holds together and follows their leader the fight against Russian military will be debilitating beyond belief. One would imagine they have restocked and rearmed from the military resources in Rostov-on-Don.

From a military POV the city is a vital link in the supply chain to the Ukrainian front. And would the Russian army attempt to have a fight in the Russian city itself ? What would be the effect on the 1million civilian population ?

They have to hope they can scare the soldiers into defection.

Turning the tide against Wagner.

Wagner is a mercenary force paid by its leader. If the Russians declared Prigozhin was traitor and put a 1 billion rouble price (around $11.8m US) and the offer of Russian Military honours on his head perhaps there would a very quick resolution of the problem. Certainly be a much cheaper and quicker solution than anything else they could do.

Would also keep Prigozhin on his toes.

__________________________________________

What does 11M get you in Russia ?

Here is an apartment for around $2.5m.

basilio said:

Not a peep from the US about all this. Probably can't believe their luck. Maybe.

If Wagner holds together and follows their leader the fight against Russian military will be debilitating beyond belief. One would imagine they have restocked and rearmed from the military resources in Rostov-on-Don.

From a military POV the city is a vital link in the supply chain to the Ukrainian front. And would the Russian army attempt to have a fight in the Russian city itself ? What would be the effect on the 1million civilian population ?

They have to hope they can scare the soldiers into defection.

Wagner chief vows to topple Russian military leaders

Yevgeny Prigozhin says his fighters have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia.

www.bbc.com

Click to expand...

This has been part of the possible unfolding scenarios for some time.

Dona Ferentes said:

OSINTdefender Retweet
ed
Dmitri
@wartranslated

Putin promises to fight back:

"They're pushing us to a defeat and capitulation ... a strike against Russia, our people .. our actions will be BRUTAL ... everyone who consciously went on this path will take an immediate punishment ... all departments have been instructed ... additional anti-terrorist measures being introduced in regions and Moscow ... operation of civil and military departments in Rostov are challenging. As a citizen, I will do EVERYTHING to protect the Constitution and the people. Those who started the mutiny BETRAYED RUSSIA AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE The only right choice is to lay down weapons."

Click to expand...

Who knows in these days of false news what the truth is? Time will tell and who ever wins over the narrative, wins the game.
There will be just as many media outlets in Russia, saying that the U.S and NATO are encroaching on Russian sovereignty, as are saying the opposite here.
Just depends who has their heart in it, the Ukraine definitely does.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/24/wagner-rebels-turn-against-putins-army

Wagner rebels turn against Putin’s army from TheEconomist

Wonder if Putin is clearing house?
He had a few enemies circling.

Dona Ferentes said:

OSINTdefender Retweet
ed
Dmitri
@wartranslated

Putin promises to fight back:

"They're pushing us to a defeat and capitulation ... a strike against Russia, our people .. our actions will be BRUTAL ... everyone who consciously went on this path will take an immediate punishment ... all departments have been instructed ... additional anti-terrorist measures being introduced in regions and Moscow ... operation of civil and military departments in Rostov are challenging. As a citizen, I will do EVERYTHING to protect the Constitution and the people. Those who started the mutiny BETRAYED RUSSIA AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE The only right choice is to lay down weapons."

Click to expand...

And this from Putrid.

basilio said:

Not a peep from the US about all this. Probably can't believe their luck. Maybe.

If Wagner holds together and follows their leader the fight against Russian military will be debilitating beyond belief. One would imagine they have restocked and rearmed from the military resources in Rostov-on-Don.

From a military POV the city is a vital link in the supply chain to the Ukrainian front. And would the Russian army attempt to have a fight in the Russian city itself ? What would be the effect on the 1million civilian population ?

They have to hope they can scare the soldiers into defection.

Wagner chief vows to topple Russian military leaders

Yevgeny Prigozhin says his fighters have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia.

www.bbc.com

Click to expand...

But basilio do the Russian heirarchy really care about the civilian population. If this internal campaign goes ahead who is going to be heading to the hills and take up hiding.

sptrawler said:

Who knows in these days of false news what the truth is? Time will tell and who ever wins over the narrative, wins the game.
There will be just as many media outlets in Russia, saying that the U.S and NATO are encroaching on Russian sovereignty, as are saying the opposite here.
Just depends who has their heart in it, the Ukraine definitely does.

Click to expand...

At the moment the Ukraine must be looking as a winner if the invading Russians are going to be moved back to defend, that is if they don't surrender first themselves. Would think that some of the soldiers must be losing heart with the opposition being put up against them, in a conflict that was going to be short and sharp. Now long and protracted.